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Old 11-10-2005   #1
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Default Only a Bump in the Road ?

"The struggles this year may look and feel as daunting as Kilimanjaro, but Texans general manager Charley Casserly says the Texans' 1-7 season thus far is "a bump in the road."
Do you buy that? Most important: Will team owner Bob McNair?
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/3451280
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Old 11-10-2005   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nunusguy
"The struggles this year may look and feel as daunting as Kilimanjaro, but Texans general manager Charley Casserly says the Texans' 1-7 season thus far is "a bump in the road."
Do you buy that? Most important: Will team owner Bob McNair?
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/3451280
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NO! :brickwall And, I certainly hope not! McNair is smarter than that, surely.

I will say that Casserly's comment made me laugh. I guess if being 1-7 is only a bump in the road - ending the season with only a couple or three wins will be just a little pothole. The man is trying to save his job - but instead of E for effort, I still give him an F. As has been said so many times - Casserly has to go.
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Old 11-10-2005   #3
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Casserly has made some dubious decisions. The selection of Boselli, the Hollings decision, the drafting of Ragone, the choice to trade picks for Buchanon and Babin, and many others.

In addition to making some bad choices, Casserly has had some bad luck. A few decisions that I do NOT blame him for are Ryan Young, Bennie Joppru and Todd Wade.
Young was still in his rookie contract and was an up-and-comer. He performed well for the Jets and had no injury problems. That was a solid pick that just didn't work out due to injury.
Joppru was a very productive TE at Michigan. He worked well with the staff at the Senior Bowl. He had no injury issues prior to getting drafted, and yet he has had 3 season ending injures before the first game of those respectives seasons. The guy must have broken a lot of mirrors and walked under too many ladders.
Todd Wade was a very good run blocker and an okay pass-blocker for the Dolphins. He was one of the bright spots on a very bad line. He came to a similar situation here. He hasn't been as effect a run or pass blocker since he got here.


I think that Casserly has about a 2/3's chance of getting canned. It really depends on how well he sells Capers as the goat instead of himself.
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Old 11-10-2005   #4
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As everyone knows, I buy into the wrong path theory and C&C are the scout leaders.

When I look at this team, I'm reminded of a term that's used in the manufacturing, quality improvement and statistics arenas called Process Capability.

It's a measure of whether your process, be it an assembly line, a single CNC machine or whatever, is capable of consistently producing a product to meet specifications. When a process is out of control, you must first know whether it's capable of producing good product in the first place. If it's not, you can tweak the settings all you want but you're still producing scrap way too often.

In this team's case, the process inputs are the management, scouting, offensive and defensive systems, coaching, and players. The outputs are wins and losses. Typically there are upper and lower bounds for the acceptable product (specification limits) but in this product's case there is no upper bound - only a lower bound that's somewhere around 8 or 9 wins.

It's obvious that this process is both out of control and incapable of consistently producing a product within the specification limits.

So what do you do when you have a process that's incapable? Change the process - or shift the mean - so that you can produce a product that is withing spec limits. How do you change the process or shift the mean? Easy.

Look at the inputs (management, scouting, offensive and defensive systems, coaching, and players) and adjust them based on empirical data, experimentation, and/or expert judgement until the output is consistently satisfactory.

To make a long boring story short, remove Capers (god love him) and Casserly from the process and replace them with new management, supervision, and operators; get higher quality material (players) and restart the machine in January.

A bump in the road? Please.

p.s., it's about time the Chronicle ran this article

Last edited by aj.; 11-10-2005 at 08:28 AM.
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Old 11-10-2005   #5
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You know who will be dissappointed when Casserly leaves. The Titans.
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Old 11-10-2005   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aj.
As everyone knows, I buy into the wrong path theory and C&C are the scout leaders.

When I look at this team, I'm reminded of a term that's used in the manufacturing, quality improvement and statistics arenas called Process Capability.

It's a measure of whether your process, be it an assembly line, a single CNC machine or whatever, is capable of consistently producing a product to meet specifications. When a process is out of control, you must first know whether it's capable of producing good product in the first place. If it's not, you can tweak the settings all you want but you're still producing scrap way too often.

In this team's case, the process inputs are the management, scouting, offensive and defensive systems, coaching, and players. The outputs are wins and losses. Typically there are upper and lower bounds for the acceptable product (specification limits) but in this product's case there is no upper bound - only a lower bound that's somewhere around 8 or 9 wins.

It's obvious that this process is both out of control and incapable of consistently producing a product within the specification limits.

So what do you do when you have a process that's incapable? Change the process - or shift the mean - so that you can produce a product that is withing spec limits. How do you change the process or shift the mean? Easy.

Look at the inputs (management, scouting, offensive and defensive systems, coaching, and players) and adjust them based on empirical data, experimentation, and/or expert judgement until the output is consistently satisfactory.

To make a long boring story short, remove Capers (god love him) and Casserly from the process and replace them with new management, supervision, and operators; get higher quality material (players) and restart the machine in January.

A bump in the road? Please.
Well said AJ.

For our younger crowd on the board, AJ's take would be analogous to hitting the reset button or for our burnt out gamers from the 80's hitting hyperspace.
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Old 11-10-2005   #7
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A bump in the road was 2003--league high injuries and the coaching staff showed a little creativity, cobbled together a D that wasn't great but was gutsy, inspired them to perform and came up with creative schemes (6 LB's & 5 DB's, no DLmen). Nonetheless the team improved on the ultimate state--the win loss record from the year before. That was a bump in the road that without the injuries maybe they would have been significantly better than 5-11.

Looking back now, without the injuries they probably wouldn't have tried anything creative and wouldn't have inspired the players.
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Old 11-10-2005   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOgre
Casserly has made some dubious decisions. The selection of Boselli, the Hollings decision, the drafting of Ragone, the choice to trade picks for Buchanon and Babin, and many others.

In addition to making some bad choices, Casserly has had some bad luck. A few decisions that I do NOT blame him for are Ryan Young, Bennie Joppru and Todd Wade.
Young was still in his rookie contract and was an up-and-comer. He performed well for the Jets and had no injury problems. That was a solid pick that just didn't work out due to injury.
Joppru was a very productive TE at Michigan. He worked well with the staff at the Senior Bowl. He had no injury issues prior to getting drafted, and yet he has had 3 season ending injures before the first game of those respectives seasons. The guy must have broken a lot of mirrors and walked under too many ladders.
Todd Wade was a very good run blocker and an okay pass-blocker for the Dolphins. He was one of the bright spots on a very bad line. He came to a similar situation here. He hasn't been as effect a run or pass blocker since he got here.


I think that Casserly has about a 2/3's chance of getting canned. It really depends on how well he sells Capers as the goat instead of himself.
I agree with you on many of your points. Casserly has made some decisions that in retrospect have not been good, but many of those, especially injury problems, aren't something he can really foresee. I think drafting Boselli was a smart move. I don't remember who else was available that we passed on, but had Boselli stayed healthy he very well could have been considered the best OT in the history of the NFL, and he would still only be I think 32 so he could still be playing here, and he would have been a very strong foundation for our OL. I too have questioned many of his decisions, but I believe he made them all thinking that they were the right choice and some just haven't worked out like they thought, but that's the nature of sports.
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Old 11-10-2005   #9
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I would even buy the "jump in the road" theory if Casserly and Capers (or even someone on the coaching staff) had a record of sustained excellence. Neither do. McNair's "mistake" in the process was going for experience and did not examine why these two did not have a better track record of production at their particular job.
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Old 11-10-2005   #10
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There are decent arguments for Casserly's release, but please don't muddle them with the Boselli deal. The Boselli deal was an under-the-table deal that was done as much to get Seth Payne and Gary Walker here than anything else. C&C felt that Ryan Young and Boselli had a good shot at being their tackles of the future, but even if Boselli didn't work out, we still got two fine D-linemen out of the deal.

Where I have a serious problem with the C&C regime is what they've done to rectify the Boselli outcome. It didn't go their way, so that's just bad luck (or butchery on the part of the doctor, depending on which version of the story you get). But what they've done to rectify that problem since is inexcusable.
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Old 11-10-2005   #11
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I've got a strange feeling, after listening to a radio interview with Bob McNair yesterday, that Casserly and Capers will still be here next year.

Mr. McNair made cryptic comments about "patience" and "understanding" - all very nice, of course - and the fact that "every team has it's ups and downs". It's all part of a "building process" to "learn how to win" over the "long haul".

Bob McNair is a very subtle, and is not an over-the-top-statement owner like Jerry Jones or Bud Adams (thank God of course!). You sort of have to read between the lines.

And IMHO: Yikes! Mr. McNair has been listening to too many of Coach Capers' speeches and interviews!! He's starting to sound like the coach now!

Be prepared fella's....this is a very real possibility that the current regime will be around for another full season.

Just my speculation, of course....
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Old 11-10-2005   #12
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What would Jacksonville have done if we hadn't taken Boselli, Payne and Walker off their hands? They were in major cap hell.

I think you have to add drafting Morency in the 3rd round as a bonehead pick also because it wasn't a pressing need like OL, LB, TE.

That whole article made me dislike Casserly even more.

"We're 1-7, but we're not a
1-7 team," Casserly said. "This isn't a sinking ship deal. I'm not trying to blame coaching or anything like that. Sometimes these things just happen. If we make a couple of good moves, boom, we're back to where we should be next year."
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Old 11-10-2005   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bckey
What would Jacksonville have done if we hadn't taken Boselli, Payne and Walker off their hands? They were in major cap hell.
The whole Boselli thing has be hashed, rehased, cut up, disected, ripped apart, analyized, hypothisized, demoralized, whateverized to death. That that statement right there was my main argument then and still stands today. It's not like Payne, Walker or Boselli were going to all be a part of that team. At least two of those guys were going to be on the block. So whatever 'deal' Casserly made back then and whatever outcome came of it is still a reflection of his GM capabilities; to sum up he pulls the trigger too fast and talks a better game than Slick Willie. We need a GM that just stays the course and doesn't gamble our future.

My biggest gripes about Casserly:

Didn't address the Boselli fiasco early enough.
Didn't bring in a veteran reciever to work with the WR corps and Carr
Didn't bring in a quality QB for Carr to learn from
Has not brought in a single Tier 1 Free Agent since the 1st year
Didn't bring in quality FA LB's (Trotter, Bell, Haggans, etc..)
Delt away too many draft picks, especially in stronger draft years
Says one thing, totally does another. Nobody should be quoting this guy, EVER.
Still has not fixed the o-line and sacks
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Old 11-10-2005   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bckey
"We're 1-7, but we're not a
1-7 team," Casserly said. "This isn't a sinking ship deal. I'm not trying to blame coaching or anything like that. Sometimes these things just happen. If we make a couple of good moves, boom, we're back to where we should be next year."
Haha. Right. So what exactly is a 1-7 team Mr Casserly? 1 win, 2 somewhat close games, and 5 blowouts does not constitute a 1-7 team?
If only we got a couple of good moves, like maybe an extra three touchdowns per game and a defense that could defend, we would be right where we should be.
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Old 11-10-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
Be prepared fella's....this is a very real possibility that the current regime will be around for another full season
Well, then the owner better be ready for a lot of empty seats and 'fans' who no longer care.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eriadoc
There are decent arguments for Casserly's release, but please don't muddle them with the Boselli deal.
The Boselli thing probably wouldn't even make my top ten list o' grievances on Casserly. There's plenty of reasons to fire Cass at the end of the season and the Bosseli thing isn't even close to the most egregious.
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Old 11-10-2005   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
I've got a strange feeling, after listening to a radio interview with Bob McNair yesterday, that Casserly and Capers will still be here next year.

Mr. McNair made cryptic comments about "patience" and "understanding" - all very nice, of course - and the fact that "every team has it's ups and downs". It's all part of a "building process" to "learn how to win" over the "long haul".

Bob McNair is a very subtle, and is not an over-the-top-statement owner like Jerry Jones or Bud Adams (thank God of course!). You sort of have to read between the lines.

And IMHO: Yikes! Mr. McNair has been listening to too many of Coach Capers' speeches and interviews!! He's starting to sound like the coach now!

Be prepared fella's....this is a very real possibility that the current regime will be around for another full season.

Just my speculation, of course....
I honestly believe that one of the two will be gone and if I had to make a bet it would be that Capers will not be with us next year. To me that is a shame. While Capers has not done a very good job this year he is working with the talent (or lack thereof) that Casserly gave him. Either way, I hope that McNair becomes more involved in the day to day operations especially at it relates to FA/Draft strategy. It is not inconceivable for this team to be competitive next year but will take a lot of work.

As a whole the Defense is in much more need of impact players than the Offense, just my opinion. If we can get a couple of good players for the O-line then I am comfortable on that side of the ball. I thought the rookie Hodgdon was doing a pretty good job. The D is a mess, from the line to the secondary, with the exception of Dunta.
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Old 11-10-2005   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexanBearkat
While Capers has not done a very good job this year he is working with the talent (or lack thereof) that Casserly gave him..
In most cases, Casserly gets the guys the coaches want ... within a certain spending and roster filling framework. Casserly makes the final call on draft choices but the coaches have a LOT of input on who is drafted. They don't work independently when it comes to draft choices and free agent acquisitions. They are inextricably tied.
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Old 11-10-2005   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexanBearkat
As a whole the Defense is in much more need of impact players than the Offense, just my opinion. If we can get a couple of good players for the O-line then I am comfortable on that side of the ball. I thought the rookie Hodgdon was doing a pretty good job. The D is a mess, from the line to the secondary, with the exception of Dunta.
I blame the coaching staff again. I have never seen a secondary play so far away as I have with the Texans. I think if they got in the receivers faces more, it would be a big difference, but it seems like they are content to let a guy catch the ball, then tackle him. Pass interference is much easier to call on somebody now, but just about every team has covered us better than we've covered them, and in a pass-happy AFC South, that means losses.
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Old 11-10-2005   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oso
I blame the coaching staff again. I have never seen a secondary play so far away as I have with the Texans. I think if they got in the receivers faces more, it would be a big difference, but it seems like they are content to let a guy catch the ball, then tackle him. Pass interference is much easier to call on somebody now, but just about every team has covered us better than we've covered them, and in a pass-happy AFC South, that means losses.
The corners would be more willing to get in a reciever's face if they had faith in the safties (COLEMAN)
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Old 11-10-2005   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
I've got a strange feeling, after listening to a radio interview with Bob McNair yesterday, that Casserly and Capers will still be here next year.
Mr. McNair made cryptic comments about "patience" and "understanding" - all very nice, of course - and the fact that "every team has it's ups and downs". It's all part of a "building process" to "learn how to win" over the "long haul".
Maybe I can buy into that analysis DB if we have a strong finish at the end of
the season which somehow generates some positive hype and momentum going into the offseason, though even 500 is obviously out of the question at this time.
Short of that (and that scenario is not likely), McNair is gonna be faced with some very disgrunlted season ticket holders which means he will have the prospect of empty seats and TV blackouts for Texan home games next year. We're already having tens of thousands of no shows to individual games this year. And if they scenario becomes reality, I think he's all but forced to do
something dramatic like clean house (fire coaches) and bring somebody new in like home town boy Kubiak to reinvigorate interest and sell tickets.
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