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Old 11-08-2005   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan
I would argue that you have to make that throw 100 out 100 times. (Even if you think that Bradford is 50-50 to catch it)
What stinks for me is that I completely agree with that 'mentality.' I so want us to be more agressive and stop playing to 'not lose.' Where we see things as different is simply on the down. On third, I make that throw 100 out of 100 times. For me, if I was QB or coach, I would've gone underneath...but again, that's me...
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Old 11-08-2005   #22
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If Mathis was healthy, anyone else think he would have been running that route? Especially after the catch last week.
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Old 11-08-2005   #23
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Originally Posted by DRAMA
What stinks for me is that I completely agree with that 'mentality.' I so want us to be more agressive and stop playing to 'not lose.' Where we see things as different is simply on the down. On third, I make that throw 100 out of 100 times. For me, if I was QB or coach, I would've gone underneath...but again, that's me...
You are not alone on this. I too question the decision on 4th and go home. QB's have to project open WR's and throw to the spot and I don't see Carr throwing to anyone unless they are wide open early in the route.
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Old 11-08-2005   #24
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Originally Posted by TheOgre
Bottom line is that no matter how perfect that pass was, it is still a low completion percentage pass. On 4th down, your job as QB is to keep the drive alive. Why attempt a pass into double-coverage that is a 1 in 3 shot AT BEST? Throw in the fact that it was to Bradford, and it truly begs the question. Meanwhile you have some shorter options that have a much higher chance of keeping the drive alive to give the team a chance to win. Basically Carr struck out swinging when he only needed a single to keep the rally going.
The coaching staff had it outlined for Carr all day - if you get Bradford in single coverage against Kenny Wright, hit it. That is exactly what Carr did, and he did it perfectly. There was no double coverage, and the safety made it over to the play by the end but still didn't manage to get his hands on the ball. In fact, neither of the DBs ever touched the ball. Bradford had it in his hands, tucked it, and lost it when he hit the ground. Carr did as his coaches instructed.
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Old 11-08-2005   #25
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Originally Posted by TheOgre
Bottom line is that no matter how perfect that pass was, it is still a low completion percentage pass. On 4th down, your job as QB is to keep the drive alive. Why attempt a pass into double-coverage that is a 1 in 3 shot AT BEST? Throw in the fact that it was to Bradford, and it truly begs the question. Meanwhile you have some shorter options that have a much higher chance of keeping the drive alive to give the team a chance to win. Basically Carr struck out swinging when he only needed a single to keep the rally going.
No...if the play is there you have to take it. In the NFL there no more that 5% -10% of plays where you have 33% chance of scoring a touchdown on that play. If Carr had thrown to Andre Johnson got the first down and the texans flounder out with an imcomplete pass , and dump off over the middle, and replay showed that Bradford was wide open then the some of the same people would saying Carr missed a wide open chance to score a TD. He tried to win the game and that was not a pass forced into coverage. That's a play a starting NFL QB is supposed make and he made it.

Carr finally makes a number pick in the draft decision and throw and still gets rundown because a below average WR does not do his job.
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Old 11-08-2005   #26
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Originally Posted by Vinny
You are not alone on this. I too question the decision on 4th and go home. QB's have to project open WR's and throw to the spot and I don't see Carr throwing to anyone unless they are wide open early in the route.
It's been well-documented on here that this offense rarely has time to wait for a WR to come open, so yes, if they're open early in the route, he should hit them then. Waiting to see if AJ was going to come open would surely have closed the window for the Bradford throw. We can use hindsight to say that's acceptable, but when he's out there on the field, knowing it's 4th down and he has 2-3 seconds to unload the ball (how much of that time is decision-making?), he has to let fly.
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Old 11-08-2005   #27
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Originally Posted by infantrycak
Exactly--like this team has been so consistant in its performance otherwise that the odds of a one strike TD to an open WR were lower than the odds of AJ getting the 1st down and the Texans marching 30 more yds for a TD in :35 seconds.
To illustrate this point. Assume that Bradford had a 50% chance of making the play and the Texans had a 90% chance of punching it in from the 5 in 35 seconds. .50 * .90 = .45 chance of succeeding.

Assume Andre has a 90% chance of making the catch and the Texans have a 30% of scoring from the 30 in 35 seconds. .90 * .30 = .27 chance of succeeding.

Given these numbers, the long pass was the less risky play. Of course anyone can juggle these numbers around - they are just assumptions I'm using as an illustration. I personally think Bradford had a better than 50% chance of making the catch. As far as the 30% chance of scoring from the 32, who knows? We are very touchdown challenged right now. That 30% may be high.

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More than anything I just want some change and a new direction.
I think the long pass was change and was happy to see it.
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Old 11-08-2005   #28
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Let's assume that the bomb is indeed the play to run at that point - why not have that 6.3, 230lb, 4.3 guy who can jump out of the building running the route instead of the guy who was cut and not claimed by another NFL team?

I'm not saying that Bradford's not at fault - he is. He was at fault last week when that ball hit on the lips! I think the numbers are skewed because 50/50 chances do not include the percentage of balls caught. Bradford is arguably as bad as any player in the NFL at simply catching the football. So to say it's 50/50 is too high. I'll give Carr the 50/50 that his pass is perfect though. He throws that rope-bomb pretty well but Bradford's chance of catching it is maybe 15-18% tops, if I had to ballpark it.

We all know that Bradford can't catch. We've discussed it for years. When I ask myself would I be as upset if they took that shot with AJ running the route, my answer would've been no - I would've been more tolerant of that play call in that case.

The question still remains - why not run that rope-bomb maybe twice a game. You know you're going to throw it so protection is irrellevant. 1-mississippi, 2-mississippi, 3-mississippi - throw! Maybe just throw it for fun?
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Old 11-08-2005   #29
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Fact: We really, really needed another David Carr thread. Can't have enough.

Theory: If Capers & Co. don't move Pitts back to LT against the Colts, all Tony Banks fans (and maybe Ragone lovers) will get to see their man on the field at some point this Sunday.
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Old 11-08-2005   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan
The funniest thing to me is that Carr is getting business for making a perfect pass in the hands of a WR who dropped the ball.
Texan fans may simply have been stunned, no make that they went into total shock because Carr and the team actually tried to win the game. And
I'll take it a step further - had Bradford made that catch, got into the EZ
(or had they got into the EZ soon after Bradfords catch had he made it), I would have been thrilled to see the team go for a 2 pt conversion and a win instead of settling for a tie and OT. Can you imagine how people in KC (not to mention the Chiefs team) feel this week after the play that Vermeil called up there Sunday to win it ? With our record now at 1-7, I'm hoping we see more plays like the one in Sundays game. What do we have to lose ?
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Old 11-08-2005   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DRAMA
So to say it's 50/50 is too high. I'll give Carr the 50/50 that his pass is perfect though. He throws that rope-bomb pretty well but Bradford's chance of catching it is maybe 15-18% tops, if I had to ballpark it.
Carr was throwing both balls, so I took him out of the equation. His short throws recently aren't any more or less accurate than his long ones.

15 to 18% sounds unrealisticly low to me, but bashing is in vogue.
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Old 11-08-2005   #32
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Originally Posted by nunusguy
I'm hoping we see more plays like the one in Sundays game. What do we have to lose ?
I completely agree...I'd just like to see them sprinkle them throughout the game. Maybe, oh I don't know, at the end of the first half with three time outs?

I do agree, we should attack but our staff hasn't attacked in 4 years...it's more than likely not going to happen now. Heck, if you read the quotes from Capers, you'd think we're in the hunt for the playoffs if can just tweak a few minor execution flaws.
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Old 11-08-2005   #33
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Originally Posted by Runner
Carr was throwing both balls, so I took him out of the equation. His short throws recently aren't any more or less accurate than his long ones.

15 to 18% sounds unrealisticly low to me, but bashing is in vogue.
Bashing who? Bradford? Seriously? This franchise has to live up to the expectations of this city. Me being a Houstonian gives me the right to expect more from a team that I help subsidize. A BBS is instilled to allow just that - the expression of my opinion based on my knowledge of the topic. I simply do not think that Bradford is better than Armstrong, Gaffney or AJ...or even Mathis from what I've seen really. I don't think Bradford catches 50% of his balls that are 10 yard curls? So to say that he MAY catch 20% of the BOMBS is unrealistic? Not so much...
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Old 11-08-2005   #34
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I completely agree with Drama on virtually all of his points, sans the "we have the same talent" theory.

On 4th and 12 and a minute left, unless a guy, any guy, is WIDE open, you don't go for the home run. That's Jr. High stuff there. Anyone will tell you that. Your job there is to get the first down. Drama said it very well in his first post. Mistakes by the WR, QB, and coaching staff led to that particular play not being made at that moment. IF Bradford catches it and scores, of course I like the outcome, but I still wouldn't have liked the decision. Terrible decision by Carr. Dumb players like Carr and Bradford are bringing the entire football IQ of our city into negative numbers. It's hard to believe we are even having to debate this. This goes right into the "no brainer" catagory.
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Old 11-08-2005   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DRAMA
Bashing who? Bradford? Seriously? This franchise has to live up to the expectations of this city. Me being a Houstonian gives me the right to expect more from a team that I help subsidize. A BBS is instilled to allow just that - the expression of my opinion based on my knowledge of the topic. I simply do not think that Bradford is better than Armstrong, Gaffney or AJ...or even Mathis from what I've seen really. I don't think Bradford catches 50% of his balls that are 10 yard curls? So to say that he MAY catch 20% of the BOMBS is unrealistic? Not so much...
I never made any claims about Bradford being better than anybody else, or said that you didn't have the right to expect more from your team. Yes, you have every right to post your opinion and be as adamant as you wish about it. I knew better than to post on a thread where so many of the original statements were followed by "period", but I posted anyway.

I'm sorry I wasted your time trying to discuss something on a discussion board.
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Old 11-08-2005   #36
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Originally Posted by DRAMA
I don't think Bradford catches 50% of his balls that are 10 yard curls? So to say that he MAY catch 20% of the BOMBS is unrealistic? Not so much...
Bradford has caught 48.6% and 50% of the passes directed to him this year and last. Before you go aha, though, that includes missed balls, defended balls, etc. so for example Randy Moss has caught 45.6% this year 57.6% last year (no I am not equating Moss to Bradford, just using a commonly known example). From the QB perspective, about 30% of Carr's incompletions are poor throws, 13% are defensed--those are not out of line--once again for illustration purposes only, 35% of Manning's incompletions are poor throws and 20% are defensed. So basically, even though Bradford has infuriated fans by not making catches, the % of the time when the ball is delivered to him in catchable form that he has made the catch is much greater than you think.
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Old 11-08-2005   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak
Bradford has caught 48.6% and 50% of the passes directed to him this year and last. Before you go aha, though, that includes missed balls, defended balls, etc. so for example Randy Moss has caught 45.6% this year 57.6% last year (no I am not equating Moss to Bradford, just using a commonly known example). From the QB perspective, about 30% of Carr's incompletions are poor throws, 13% are defensed--those are not out of line--once again for illustration purposes only, 35% of Manning's incompletions are poor throws and 20% are defensed. So basically, even though Bradford has infuriated fans by not making catches, the % of the time when the ball is delivered to him in catchable form that he has made the catch is much greater than you think.
All that analysis is nice, and I honestly am not trying to take anything away from it, but it's really a lot simpler than that. Watch the games. :brickwall
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Old 11-08-2005   #38
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Originally Posted by Porky
I completely agree with Drama on virtually all of his points, sans the "we have the same talent" theory.

On 4th and 12 and a minute left, unless a guy, any guy, is WIDE open, you don't go for the home run. That's Jr. High stuff there. Anyone will tell you that. Your job there is to get the first down. Drama said it very well in his first post. Mistakes by the WR, QB, and coaching staff led to that particular play not being made at that moment. IF Bradford catches it and scores, of course I like the outcome, but I still wouldn't have liked the decision. Terrible decision by Carr. Dumb players like Carr and Bradford are bringing the entire football IQ of our city into negative numbers. It's hard to believe we are even having to debate this. This goes right into the "no brainer" catagory.
Your the same guy who bashes Carr for locking on and forcing the pass to AJ arent you? That was a good read, a great pass, and a bad drop. If you argue that CB shouldnt have a pass thrown his way he had playeda good game all day. The point is when you get a shot you take it. On 1st-4th if you are down by 7 and you have a man wide open its time to go for the jugular. PERIOD.
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Old 11-08-2005   #39
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Originally Posted by Porky
All that analysis is nice, and I honestly am not trying to take anything away from it, but it's really a lot simpler than that. Watch the games. :brickwall
I have watched every game, thank you very much. Would I be happy if the Texans benched Bradford and once Mathis is healthy played 4 WR's with AJ, Mathis, Armstrong & Gaff?--yup. But until they do that, I expect Carr or any QB they trot out there to make the reads in the order directed and if the WR is open, to make the throw. That is their job, not to categorically refuse to throw to a WR because fans don't care what the odds are, because they know what they have seen. Good lord--folks have been complaining for years about predictable play calling--how about this one--every time the Texans need more than 8 yards they will throw to AJ.
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Old 11-08-2005   #40
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You are not alone on this. I too question the decision on 4th and go home. QB's have to project open WR's and throw to the spot and I don't see Carr throwing to anyone unless they are wide open early in the route.
What about that big throw to Gaffney on 3rd down just the previous game? Carr threw into tight coverage downfield. Come on now, I could name many, many more. Even in the same game he threw a dart to the TE who didn't catch it. Carr threw one to Bradford too in a hitch with a man right on him and Bradford couldn't pull it down because the defender overpowered him. Do want me to go on?
 
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