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Old 10-31-2005   #1
the wonger need food
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Default David Carr is Tim Couch... but not as good.

Let's look at the stats when comparing these two QB's put into identical situations. The biggest difference is that Couch led his team to more wins and a playoff appearance.

Based on history, David Carr will not be in the NFL in 2008.

Couch (15 Games)
Year 1 - 2447 Yards, 56% Completions, 15 TD's, 13 INT's
Carr (16 Games)
Year 1 - 2592 Yards, 52% Completions, 9 TD's, 9 INT's

Couch (7 Games)
Year 2 - 1483 Yards, 64% Completions, 7 TD's, 9 INT's
Carr (12 Games)
Year 2 - 2013 Yards, 57% Completions, 9 TD's, 13 INT's

Couch (16 Games)
Year 3 - 3040 Yards, 60% Completions, 17 TD's, 21 INT's
Carr (16 Games)
Year 3 - 3531 Yards, 61% Completions, 16 TD's, 15 INT's

And Carr is well behind Couch's pace for TD's and yards in his 4th year.
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Old 10-31-2005   #2
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You can do the same thing for Carr's 1st three years and Aikman's. Carr is no more Couch than he is Aikman.
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Old 10-31-2005   #3
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Originally Posted by infantrycak
You can do the same thing for Carr's 1st three years and Aikman's. Carr is no more Couch than he is Aikman.
And Carr is way, way behind Aikman's 4th year numbers. And I believe that Aikman's team won the Super Bowl in that 4th year. It's highly unlikely that Carr matches this, but it is a 9 game season.
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Old 10-31-2005   #4
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Originally Posted by the wonger need food
And Carr is way, way behind Aikman's 4th year numbers. And I believe that Aikman's team won the Super Bowl in that 4th year. It's highly unlikely that Carr matches this, but it is a 9 game season.
are you dave ragone?
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Old 10-31-2005   #5
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At least he doesn't cry like a little girl after a loss.
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Old 10-31-2005   #6
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Originally Posted by the wonger need food
And Carr is way, way behind Aikman's 4th year numbers. And I believe that Aikman's team won the Super Bowl in that 4th year. It's highly unlikely that Carr matches this, but it is a 9 game season.
And if you can look at the last half of last season and the abrupt change since week 9 and the team that is on the field this season and say the #1 problem is Carr then we will just have to agree to disagree although I would invite a more reasoned argument than Carr sucks. I tend to be in the ArlingtonTexan camp of Carr is a Jake Plummer level QB, but you know what--Jake is going to the playoffs this year. It is the team that wins and loses, not one player.
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Old 10-31-2005   #7
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Originally Posted by infantrycak
And if you can look at the last half of last season and the abrupt change since week 9 and the team that is on the field this season and say the #1 problem is Carr then we will just have to agree to disagree although I would invite a more reasoned argument than Carr sucks. I tend to be in the ArlingtonTexan camp of Carr is a Jake Plummer level QB, but you know what--Jake is going to the playoffs this year. It is the team that wins and loses, not one player.
I am not sure he will ever be as good as Plummer, but while I have dogged Carr hard this year, he made a couple of nice throws Sunday. If he can build on that we may end up with a credible passing game by the end of the year. I've really given him some grief for not challenging the middle of the field but he had a beautiful pass to Gaffney in the seam....so while I know he can make that pass, I've been cynical on his ability to spot the coverage with enough confidence to make that throw with any regularity. Hopefully he is a late bloomer.
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Old 10-31-2005   #8
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If Kubiak is the coach here next year then he might start to play more like Plummer. They are both very similar QBs in style.
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Old 10-31-2005   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
I am not sure he will ever be as good as Plummer, but while I have dogged Carr hard this year, he made a couple of nice throws Sunday. If he can build on that we may end up with a credible passing game by the end of the year. I've really given him some grief for not challenging the middle of the field but he had a beautiful pass to Gaffney in the seam....so while I know he can make that pass, I've been cynical on his ability to spot the coverage with enough confidence to make that throw with any regularity. Hopefully he is a late bloomer.
I can't point to anything in Carr that says going to be a great QB. On the other hand, I can see a ton of coaching changes, bad decisions, poor play by the OL, etc. that IMO clearly point to less than ideal conditions for any QB. Peyton Manning (for god's sake no one try to assert this is a David Carr equals Manning post) had things to work on as well when he came into the league. The difference is, his team and coaches put him into a position to become what he has. To me this is like the difference between putting a kid with attention deficit disorder in a room with 20 TV's and 200 toys vs. a quiet place for short term learning sessions--i.e. handicapping vs. trying to develop the most you can. IMO there just isn't a credible argument that this team has done a good job developing whatever David Carr is as a QB whether that is a game manager, a gunslinger or mobile Plummeresque player.
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Old 10-31-2005   #10
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Originally Posted by infantrycak
IMO there just isn't a credible argument that this team has done a good job developing whatever David Carr is
The sad thing is you can replace the name "David Carr" with o- or d-lineman, linebacker, defensive back, receiver and the statement is pretty much true.

How many players do we have that are better now than when we got them?
Davis - who else?

How many are worse than when we got them? Wade - who else?

I think that second list will be far longer, even adjusting for the few older players doing a normal decline with age.
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Old 10-31-2005   #11
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Maybe David Carr is a David Carr type player. There are way too many variables to try and compare one QB to another...offensive philosophy, coaching, O-line, running game and quality of the defense.
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Old 10-31-2005   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak
You can do the same thing for Carr's 1st three years and Aikman's. Carr is no more Couch than he is Aikman.
Couch:
1999 sacked 56 times
2000 sacked 10 times
2001 sacked 51 times
Grand total: 117

Carr:
2002 sacked 76 times
2003 sacked 15 times
2004 sacked 49 times
Grand total: 140

Aikman:
1989 sacked 19 times
1990 sacked 39 times
1991 sacked 32 times
Grand total: 90

Carr's stats are way more impressive than Aikman's stats considering the amount of sacks that he has taken comparing the two. But, its so sad to see the amount of hits David has taken. I remember watching Couch and feeling for him. All of those hits basically ruined his career, as he was coached by Chris Palmer.
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Old 10-31-2005   #13
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Default ...my vote

There is a name that IMO does not get mentioned enough when talking about the development of David Carr--Dom Capers. Does he wear blinders? Does he live in never-never land? In his 5th year with the Texans--look at our offense! Don't bother to compare this offense to any other teams--it sucks--and is worse now than it has ever been. To me, it is so silly that we have to make excuses why we can't throw the ball over the middle, or to a tight end, or down the field, etc. NFL/Pro players/high paid. This is not Pop Warner football but we act like it is and we certainly get similar results. What would happen tomorrow if the league established one big pool of money for all players, and each player was paid out of that pool based upon their play versus every other player at the same posistion for that game? We would have some poor Texans! Then, of course, you'd tie the coaches into their own pool of money based upon their players ranking and-finally-rank the head coaches. No guarantees of money---you get what your team produces. There would be some poor Texans!

Sure, this is just folly on my part but the point is a lot of money is being paid for a bad product--kinda unique in the real business world that does not keep paying for poor results year after year without a change at the top--changing anyone else just means more time for that same person at the top to...well, you get the picture. It would be one thing if their was were a few positives we could point our fingers at--like a solid offense or defense, but-instead-we are left to wonder who's fault it is our QB doesn't produce. I vote for Dom Capers.

Last edited by tsip; 10-31-2005 at 10:06 PM.
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Old 10-31-2005   #14
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the wonger need food just tells it like it is with stats and all you have to respect that sure we all wish david played like he did with fresno state but this is the NFL and that wont happen.
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Old 10-31-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the wonger need food
Let's look at the stats when comparing these two QB's put into identical situations. The biggest difference is that Couch led his team to more wins and a playoff appearance.

Based on history, David Carr will not be in the NFL in 2008.

Couch (15 Games)
Year 1 - 2447 Yards, 56% Completions, 15 TD's, 13 INT's
Carr (16 Games)
Year 1 - 2592 Yards, 52% Completions, 9 TD's, 9 INT's

Couch (7 Games)
Year 2 - 1483 Yards, 64% Completions, 7 TD's, 9 INT's
Carr (12 Games)
Year 2 - 2013 Yards, 57% Completions, 9 TD's, 13 INT's

Couch (16 Games)
Year 3 - 3040 Yards, 60% Completions, 17 TD's, 21 INT's
Carr (16 Games)
Year 3 - 3531 Yards, 61% Completions, 16 TD's, 15 INT's

And Carr is well behind Couch's pace for TD's and yards in his 4th year.
Let me tell you a stat that is true Chris Palmer was the coach at Browns his first 2 years then he comes here and does the same thing. so those stats would be similar.
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Old 11-01-2005   #16
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Default Ok, If Carr is the problem...

Wonger and Napa...

Ok, if Carr is THE problem then how would you propose to fix the situation? Draft Leinart? Pick up Vinny Testeverde after the season?

The simple fact is that you could have a top notch QB on the team but he is only executing the plays (and audibles) that he is directed to. He still has a patch-work OL, no TE, and a questionable rotation of WRs. He might have some weapons to work with, ie. DD and AJ, but then any defense can isolate at least one option from almost any offense. Right now we can't expect that the defense will consistently produce turn-overs or stops. One of the few things he would have going for him is a quality special teams unit.

If management can shore up some of those areas and Carr can't progress then fine, he needs to sit. How many players have we watched leave the team and be productive elsewhere? I understand that those examples are primarily on the defensive side of the ball, but the point remains. I think this points directly to the coaching staff and to a large extent the GM. At the end of the day I think that we might never have known how good Carr could have been...if he had been picked up by an established team with some good mentorship available he might be one of the top QBs in the game. My opinion is that he would not have been the next Joe Montana but he had the tools to be a pro-bowl player.
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Old 11-01-2005   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runner
The sad thing is you can replace the name "David Carr" with o- or d-lineman, linebacker, defensive back, receiver and the statement is pretty much true.

How many players do we have that are better now than when we got them?
Davis - who else?

How many are worse than when we got them? Wade - who else?

I think that second list will be far longer, even adjusting for the few older players doing a normal decline with age.
I am interpreting this as who has improved and who has tanked.

Better: Dunta Robinson

Worse: Babin, Buchanon, McKinney
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Old 11-01-2005   #18
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Originally Posted by J-Man
Wonger and Napa...

Ok, if Carr is THE problem then how would you propose to fix the situation? Draft Leinart? Pick up Vinny Testeverde after the season?
Well, management has to pick up his option so we're stuck with him. It would be a bad PR move not to and we now know that public perceptions are more important than fielding a competetive team. He will get 2 more seasons to produce under a new system and if he doesn't he'll be playing golf with Tim Couch, Cade McNown and Joey Harrington.

However, the organization must bring in a veteran QB or draft one as a backup plan since it's obvious they have no faith in Ragone. Many of us were calling for this last offseason. Apparantly they did not want to hurt Big Dave's feelings by doing this (remember how they had to place a call to Carr when they drafted Henson, to let him know that he wouldn't have any competition).

It's time for this organization to take a no-nonsense approach to winning and stop worrying about everyone's feelings. They should be focused on finding and fielding the best players available and not on putting the highest drafted and/or paid players on the field. Capers is a great guy, a very nice guy. But nice does not get it done on the NFL level.
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Old 11-01-2005   #19
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Ok...Carr has two years to work with and prove he is a starter. That being said the issues go way deeper than just the QB. For a QB to be sucessful there are a lot of things that must work in his favor, Carr needs to step his game up but so do most of the other players on the field. If we don't address all those other areas as well then I don't care who you have taking the snaps we will not be in the play-offs at the end of the season.
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Old 11-01-2005   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runner
The sad thing is you can replace the name "David Carr" with o- or d-lineman, linebacker, defensive back, receiver and the statement is pretty much true.

How many players do we have that are better now than when we got them?
Davis - who else?

How many are worse than when we got them? Wade - who else?

I think that second list will be far longer, even adjusting for the few older players doing a normal decline with age.
Bingo! One of the better posts I have read in awhile.

In addition, one of the problems with this staff is that they have fallen in love with player projects which only work if you are (1) very smart at evaluating talent since you will be betting the ranch on "potential" either from an injured player coming back or changing positions and (2) you are very good at rapidly coaching them up to be successful in their new spot or post rehab.

Let's see....Hollings, Earl, Lord, Coleman, Babin (not a bust yet but we did reach for him), Riley, Wand etc...
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