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Old 10-19-2005   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
We've got a great punter. Probably one of the better players [at his position] on our team.

I think the chances of downing the ball inside the 20 on a punt are greater than our chances of making it on even 10% of our fourth downs (especially considering most of our fourth downs are long).

Talk like this is for defeatists. We already have a mountain to climb to get an 0-5 start (and most likely 0-6 after Sunday) out of our team's mentality. But giving up on playing field position, a basic premise of ball control football, smells of desperation.

And if there is anything worse than a losing attitude on a team, it's a desperate losing attitude.

We have to keep making sound football judgement calls if we want any credibility to exist with our organization, because our long term ability to create a successful team goes well beyond this one season.

We start making calls like this, we will be the laughing stock in the national media for more than just losing games. And that tag would stay with us for a long, long time (well after Coach Capers & co. have left the building).
Yes we have a good punter who has been successful at putting the ball inside the opponents 20, but the defense has not held them once that's happen. That's the problem. So if you can't hold them there anyway, you might as well see if you can keep the drive going. The best defense in this game might be a great offense. Again with a normal team and a normal game I would say punting would be wise. But in this game I think you have to look at each 4th down as a potentail 1st. We actually have a better 4th down conversion rate than a 3rd down conversion rate.
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Old 10-19-2005   #22
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Again the gentleman was saying short and 4th inside the other teams 45. He's not talking about when we have a long ways to go. We have to keep the pressure on Indy somehow. If you just keep punting to Manning its all over anyway.

Its like playing nolimit Texas Holdem. If you are weak player against an expert your best play is to keep going all in and pray for the best. You actually negate the play of the best player and put it all on chance. We are in a similar situation with Indy.
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Old 10-19-2005   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibar_Harry
But St Louis did expose a weakness of INDY in that they are human to and do not like pressure. Manning does loose his cool. Like I said in an earlier post wehn he starts talking to the officials you try to upstage that and upset him.
St. Louis invented this hmmm? Not the Patriots or say the Texans last year when Dunta sacked Manning twice (but for refs would have been 4 times with a fumble) the DB's picked him off twice and he was whining about calls to the refs. What am I doing?--I forgot you don't watch 90% of the Texans games.
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Old 10-19-2005   #24
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This is a brilliant idea. Now we can lose 60-17 instead of 42-10. By doing this we would clinch the first pick in the draft. So I say go ahead.
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Old 10-19-2005   #25
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I think this was an idea produced out of frustration.

That being said I'm sure you know its not good solid FUNDAMENTAL football which is what we need to try and play more of.

Run, Defense, Field Position. Ugly Ball.

Unfortunately....Run - DD gets 9 Man Lines. Seahawks even had some 10 man ones. Talk about getting rodney dangerfield.

Defense....yea well 320 (on the ground) answers that.

Field Position....yes i saw the 90 yard drive.

All that said it just means we need to FIGURE IT OUT. MINUS the coaches we presently have.
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Old 10-20-2005   #26
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I do feel that certain situations warrant going for it on 4th down. Would be nice if we had 4th and a foot with Refridgerator Perry in the backfield.

It would be the kiss of death to go for it every 4th down past our 45yard line. True it seems to make no difference with our defense if a team gets it on the 10 or 50 yard line, but the odds are much better in our favor that they have to move the ball 90/95 yards for a score than just go 50 yards to score! If you are on the fifty yard line, One decent pass & you are in FG range. Common sense would tell you this!

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Old 10-20-2005   #27
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Hey, great idea! While we're at it, we could have 5 receivers and no backs on EVERY play....we don't need Bruener in there to block or anything anyway.

There is one thing I do wonder about, talking about kicking out of bounds:

Why don't punters punt out of bounds more often? I mean they always try to get it to stop (or be stopped) inside the 10, so why not just kick it out of bounds at about the 5 yd. line? Obviously, this idea isn't the answer to the Texans problems, but I just wonder about it. Guess it must be harder to do than I think or something.
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Old 10-20-2005   #28
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Punters have a hard time with fine tuning the angle--really the distance is easier to peg than the angle. That combined with the fact that NFL officials are incredibly generous to the receiving team when spotting where a punt goes out of bounds makes it a non-starter although logical idea.
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Old 10-20-2005   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
This sounds like a technique employed by online Madden cheesers. Never punting and always kicking offsides.
As mentioned by Vinny, starting field position is probably one of the most important overlooked stats in football. It can easily make or break games with teams that are evenly matched.
The titans were doing it in the last half of last season...
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Old 10-20-2005   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texan279
The titans were doing it in the last half of last season...
No they weren't. The last 8 games they went for it 4 times on 4th down (probably about the NFL average). Everything in the NFL is recorded you know.
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Old 10-20-2005   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
No they weren't. The last 8 games they went for it 4 times on 4th down (probably about the NFL average). Everything in the NFL is recorded you know.
I was talking about the onsides kicks, do they keep records of those?
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Old 10-20-2005   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
This sounds like a technique employed by online Madden cheesers. Never punting and always kicking offsides.
I don't remember what team it was, that last season made onside kicks like three times in the fisrt half against.. The Colts I believe it was. I think the idea were that it did not matter what the field position would be like since Manning and co. would score anyway. SO, onside kicks, if the Colts got the ball they would score regardless, but if *insert team name here* got the ball back, it would mean that Manning were not on the field. Since we have not seen it since (afaik) I would suppose that.. it did not work
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Old 10-20-2005   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
No they weren't. The last 8 games they went for it 4 times on 4th down (probably about the NFL average). Everything in the NFL is recorded you know.
And FYI according to NFL.com, they attempted 12 4th down conversions in the last 8 games, they tried it 27 times total for the season.
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Old 10-20-2005   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runner
b) most teams that go for it on 4th down, even very short yardage, already have field postion on their side
So, if a team chose to consider their opponents part of the field as fourth-down-land, it might be possible?
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Old 10-20-2005   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloy
So, if a team chose to consider their opponents part of the field as fourth-down-land, it might be possible?
I don't know - I didn't run the dynamic-programming analysis with my own assumptions.
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Old 10-20-2005   #36
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I just went thru the gamebooks.... I may have taken the wrong team a time or two but dont have time to look it up again...I just checked the last three and they had 3 vs the Raiders and zero vs the other two. They had 5 vs the Colts but the Colts beat them 51-24....Bottom line is most games that werent blow outs they went for a first down zero or one time. 27 attempts is still just a bit more than one a game.

4th-Down Conversions 0-0
Lions 4th-Down Conversions 0-0
Denver 4th-Down Conversions 0-1

Detroit Lions vs Tennessee Titans
1/2/2005 at The Coliseum
Final Team Statistics
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Lions Home
Titans
TOTAL FIRST DOWNS 23 15
By Rushing 5 4
By Passing 17 10
By Penalty 1 1
THIRD DOWN EFFICIENCY 5-15-33% 5-13-38%
FOURTH DOWN EFFICIENCY 1-2-50% 0-0-0%

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebo...050102_DET@TEN
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Old 10-20-2005   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
I just went thru the gamebooks.... I may have taken the wrong team a time or two but dont have time to look it up again...I just checked the last three and they had 3 vs the Raiders and zero vs the other two. They had 5 vs the Colts but the Colts beat them 51-24....Bottom line is most games that werent blow outs they went for a first down zero or one time. 27 attempts is still just a bit more than one a game.

4th-Down Conversions 0-0
Lions 4th-Down Conversions 0-0
Denver 4th-Down Conversions 0-1

Detroit Lions vs Tennessee Titans
1/2/2005 at The Coliseum
Final Team Statistics
Visitor
Lions Home
Titans
TOTAL FIRST DOWNS 23 15
By Rushing 5 4
By Passing 17 10
By Penalty 1 1
THIRD DOWN EFFICIENCY 5-15-33% 5-13-38%
FOURTH DOWN EFFICIENCY 1-2-50% 0-0-0%

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebo...050102_DET@TEN
They led the NFL last season with 27 4th down attempts and guess who was second, the Texans with 21.
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Old 10-20-2005   #38
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Heck of a losers stat. When you are behind you go for it late. I bet most of them were 4th and short on the opponents side of the field too.
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Old 10-20-2005   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
Heck of a losers stat. When you are behind you go for it late. I bet most of them were 4th and short on the opponents side of the field too.
I know Vinny, and I wasn't trying to be an *** in my posts, I guess what I was trying to say is playing/coaching with a loser's mentality is probably not the best thing for the Texans to for the rest of the season.
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Old 10-20-2005   #40
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This is the intriguing part of the ESPN analysis:

"Even on its own 10-yard-line -- 90 yards from the end zone -- a team within three yards of a first down is marginally better off, on average, going for it."

At this point in the season, why not go for it?

Is this professor looking to coach a team? I'd be willing to let probability equations fuel the Texans for a while. How about a game theorist for offensive coordinator?

Last edited by Texans Horror; 10-20-2005 at 10:13 AM.
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