Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQDonate Automatic Monthly Contribution Members List Mark Forums Read


Texans Talk Football talk only please. Keep it to the game, the players, the coaches and management.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-19-2005   #1
rockabilly
Veteran
 
rockabilly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 31
Posts: 412
Rep Power: 433 rockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Abolish 4th down punts.

I think we are so deep into the season and so outmatched against any team that we play this season, especially the colts, I think we should abolish punting on 4th down when it it is 4th and 5 or less, and we are past our own 45 yard line.

2nd down is usually OUR 4th down. I think this offense needs an extra down to get the job done and can be more efficient if they follow my "over 45 with 5 to go plan."

An extra down gives our D one more play or possible more rest time between series plus begins to tire, irritate, and confuse the opposing defense.

Im not trying to be funny here sadly. But I think it should be an option when you are already 0-5 and your offense is the least productive.

Last edited by rockabilly; 10-19-2005 at 01:32 PM. Reason: mistake made
rockabilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #2
Vinny
shiny happy fan
 
Vinny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Age: 50
Posts: 21,847
Rep Power: 161784 Vinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

if you aren't trying to be funny then you aren't credible. Punts are a big part of field position and making teams drive the length of the field. One of our problems on offense is we have long fields we have to drive and do not have many short fields....you are talking about giving the other teams more short fields.
__________________
http://twitter.com/#!/TexansTalk


"A nation of sheep begets a government of wolves" - Edward R. Murrow
Vinny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #3
ArlingtonTexan
Moderator
 
ArlingtonTexan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Age: 47
Posts: 6,068
Rep Power: 73193 ArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

ArlingtonTexan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #4
rockabilly
Veteran
 
rockabilly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 31
Posts: 412
Rep Power: 433 rockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

Did you see the score Sunday night? Apparently punting doesnt help this team. Our defense is too soft. The seahawks easily drove 90 yards for a td. The only way this team can win is if the other team doesnt have the ball.

On field position, if you turnover the ball on a 4th down attempt on the 50 yard line, it is not that big a difference considering our defense.

Im for punting on 4th if we are below our own 45 yard line. But I think if we get that far and close to their side of the field we need to take advantage if we only have 5 yards to go on a 4th.
rockabilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #5
Vinny
shiny happy fan
 
Vinny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Age: 50
Posts: 21,847
Rep Power: 161784 Vinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockabilly
Did you see the score Sunday night? Apparently punting doesnt help this team.
You need some football 101. This can't work...if it did other teams would do it.
__________________
http://twitter.com/#!/TexansTalk


"A nation of sheep begets a government of wolves" - Edward R. Murrow
Vinny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #6
Double Barrel
Modified Simian
 
Double Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Onward, Upward, and back into the Trees
Section: Gridiron, Tx
Age: 48
Posts: 31,741
Rep Power: 398918 Double Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

This sounds like a technique employed by online Madden cheesers. Never punting and always kicking offsides.

As mentioned by Vinny, starting field position is probably one of the most important overlooked stats in football. It can easily make or break games with teams that are evenly matched.
__________________
"Football is only a diversion." ~ HOUSTON TEXANS
Double Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #7
Vinny
shiny happy fan
 
Vinny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Age: 50
Posts: 21,847
Rep Power: 161784 Vinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
This sounds like a technique employed by online Madden cheesers. Never punting and always kicking offsides. :
LOL, that's what I was thinking.
__________________
http://twitter.com/#!/TexansTalk


"A nation of sheep begets a government of wolves" - Edward R. Murrow
Vinny is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored links
Old 10-19-2005   #8
rockabilly
Veteran
 
rockabilly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 31
Posts: 412
Rep Power: 433 rockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
This sounds like a technique employed by online Madden cheesers. Never punting and always kicking offsides.

As mentioned by Vinny, starting field position is probably one of the most important overlooked stats in football. It can easily make or break games with teams that are evenly matched.
We are always un-evenly matched.

And the reason other teams don't do it is because no other team is as pathetic as we are or have a swiss cheese defense. Everyone on this board talks about how bad the offense is. Well, the defense is just as horrid.
rockabilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #9
Vinny
shiny happy fan
 
Vinny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Age: 50
Posts: 21,847
Rep Power: 161784 Vinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

This is not what I'd consider intelligent football talk. Most fans from other teams would just laugh at how dumb we are considering this stuff man.
__________________
http://twitter.com/#!/TexansTalk


"A nation of sheep begets a government of wolves" - Edward R. Murrow
Vinny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #10
Runner
Hubcap Diamond
 
Runner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 8,002
Rep Power: 72472 Runner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

Never punting would certainly lead to some high scores - against the team that doesn't punt.

I remember seeing an article in Discover a few years ago where a mathematician "proved" that always going for it on 4th down would improve a teams chances of winning.

The flaw in all this, of course, was that the historical data he had to work with was skewed to:

a) 4th and very short situations, where most teams consider going for it on 4th down and many do regardless of game time

b) most teams that go for it on 4th down, even very short yardage, already have field postion on their side

c) 4th and long when teams are still close in score but time is winding down, so going for it on 4th down has a higher percentage of leading to a win when compared to going for it on 4th and 7 during the first quarter because they refuse to punt out of hand

They also explored such sports mysteries such as:

Do curve balls curve? Yes

Do "rising" fast balls rise? No - they just don't drop as far as normal.
Runner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #11
rockabilly
Veteran
 
rockabilly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 31
Posts: 412
Rep Power: 433 rockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respectedrockabilly is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

ok. so i guess the idea is a little stupid. sadly its the only thing i can think of..as there is nothing else this team can do this year to imrprove. I really do see 0-16.
rockabilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #12
Runner
Hubcap Diamond
 
Runner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 8,002
Rep Power: 72472 Runner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respectedRunner is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

Here are some references to the statistical payback of always going for it on 4th down.

Press release for David Romer's study:
http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/r...19_ftball.html

ESPN analysis of the study:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html

For the mathematically inclined, the paper itself:
http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/drom...s/nber9024.pdf

Abstract
This paper uses play-by-play accounts of virtually all regular season National Football League games for 1998-2000 to analyze teamsí choices on fourth down to estimate the values of possessing the ball at different points on the field. These estimates are combined with data on the results of kicks and conventional plays to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and going for it under different circumstances. Examination of teamsí actual decisions shows systematic, overwhelmingly statistically significant, and quantitatively large departures from decisions the dynamic-programming analysis implies are preferable.



I leave further analysis of this paper to the board.

Last edited by Runner; 10-19-2005 at 03:06 PM.
Runner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #13
Texas
Hall of Fame
 
Texas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Clear Lake
Age: 26
Posts: 1,030
Rep Power: 11 Texas is ridin' the pine
Send a message via AIM to Texas
Default

Thats madden. This is real life. If you think about us doing that every time. What would that do? Nothing really accept increase the other teams Point Average against us. We 80% of the time wouldnt get the first down and when we did we'd still have to continue moving upfield. I agree this is more like a rookie on madden's type of idea but keep it up. It works there
Texas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #14
Ibar_Harry
Hall of Fame
 
Ibar_Harry's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2,219
Rep Power: 15 Ibar_Harry was voted MVPIbar_Harry was voted MVPIbar_Harry was voted MVP
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
if you aren't trying to be funny then you aren't credible. Punts are a big part of field position and making teams drive the length of the field. One of our problems on offense is we have long fields we have to drive and do not have many short fields....you are talking about giving the other teams more short fields.
Vinny the problem is that we never can contain the other team when we do pen them back. I understand and actually feel the same way. It sounds strange but our defense is not doing anything to get the ball back to us. We seldom see a 3 and out. The one way you beat Manning is keep the ball away from him. He looses rythm just like Carr and he gets frustrated when he's behind. He does make mistakes when pressured. You are not going to beat Indy by playing a normal game. I would say I would look at every 4th down and evaluate it based on what the punt game my get me vs if I got a 1st down. Its a must to keep the Indy offense off of the field.
Ibar_Harry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #15
humbleone
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Age: 59
Posts: 343
Rep Power: 10 humbleone is a fan favorite
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockabilly
I think we are so deep into the season and so outmatched against any team that we play this season, especially the colts, I think we should abolish punting on 4th down when it it is 4th and 5 or less, and we are past our own 45 yard line.

2nd down is usually OUR 4th down. I think this offense needs an extra down to get the job done and can be more efficient if they follow my "over 45 with 5 to go plan."

An extra down gives our D one more play or possible more rest time between series plus begins to tire, irritate, and confuse the opposing defense.

Im not trying to be funny here sadly. But I think it should be an option when you are already 0-5 and your offense is the least productive.
Actually, for this team, the opposite to your idea makes more sense we should punt on every third and long instead of not punting on 4th down. Why...because our ability to convert third downs is practically zero anyway and this would reduce our sacks improving field position more than it would currently cost us in missed opportunities to continue.... oh what is that word when teams make first downs and move down the field??? oh yeah "drives".

(BTW, I am venting not advocating)
humbleone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #16
ledzeppelin229
Hall of Fame
 
ledzeppelin229's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Spring / San Marcos, TX
Age: 29
Posts: 6,829
Rep Power: 712 ledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respectedledzeppelin229 is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via AIM to ledzeppelin229
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibar_Harry
Vinny the problem is that we never can contain the other team when we do pen them back. I understand and actually feel the same way. It sounds strange but our defense is not doing anything to get the ball back to us. We seldom see a 3 and out. The one way you beat Manning is keep the ball away from him. He looses rythm just like Carr and he gets frustrated when he's behind. He does make mistakes when pressured. You are not going to beat Indy by playing a normal game. I would say I would look at every 4th down and evaluate it based on what the punt game my get me vs if I got a 1st down. Its a must to keep the Indy offense off of the field.
Like our offense has done anything with the ball when it finally gets it.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thorn
godzmn young fomkss are slow. they can all kissmy ass.

ledzeppelin229 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #17
Vinny
shiny happy fan
 
Vinny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Age: 50
Posts: 21,847
Rep Power: 161784 Vinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibar_Harry
I would say I would look at every 4th down and evaluate it based on what the punt game my get me vs if I got a 1st down. Its a must to keep the Indy offense off of the field.
If you can't get it in three downs your odds of getting in one is not good...I can't believe our fans are discussing this credibly.
__________________
http://twitter.com/#!/TexansTalk


"A nation of sheep begets a government of wolves" - Edward R. Murrow
Vinny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #18
Ibar_Harry
Hall of Fame
 
Ibar_Harry's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2,219
Rep Power: 15 Ibar_Harry was voted MVPIbar_Harry was voted MVPIbar_Harry was voted MVP
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
If you can't get it in three downs your odds of getting in one is not good...I can't believe our fans are discussing this credibly.
He's talking about inside of their 45. By kicking you are probably going to get it brought back to the 20. If your defense could hold them Vinny then I would say its foolish. So if your not going to hold them anyway, may be should give yourself an additinal chance. That's what the logic is all about. I understand how you feel and I know why, but again this not a normal team with a normal defense.

St Louis was playing the perfect game against INDY until the QB tried to be a hero and took himself out of the game. At that point it was all over. But St Louis did expose a weakness of INDY in that they are human to and do not like pressure. Manning does loose his cool. Like I said in an earlier post wehn he starts talking to the officials you try to upstage that and upset him. We also have to blitz regardless of the consequences, because if we get to him he will throw a hissy fit. Manning himself is the key to upsetting INDY.
Ibar_Harry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #19
Vinny
shiny happy fan
 
Vinny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Age: 50
Posts: 21,847
Rep Power: 161784 Vinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respectedVinny is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

:brickwall
__________________
http://twitter.com/#!/TexansTalk


"A nation of sheep begets a government of wolves" - Edward R. Murrow
Vinny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2005   #20
Double Barrel
Modified Simian
 
Double Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Onward, Upward, and back into the Trees
Section: Gridiron, Tx
Age: 48
Posts: 31,741
Rep Power: 398918 Double Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respectedDouble Barrel is a quality contributor and well respected
Default

We've got a great punter. Probably one of the better players [at his position] on our team.

I think the chances of downing the ball inside the 20 on a punt are greater than our chances of making it on even 10% of our fourth downs (especially considering most of our fourth downs are long).

Talk like this is for defeatists. We already have a mountain to climb to get an 0-5 start (and most likely 0-6 after Sunday) out of our team's mentality. But giving up on playing field position, a basic premise of ball control football, smells of desperation.

And if there is anything worse than a losing attitude on a team, it's a desperate losing attitude.

We have to keep making sound football judgement calls if we want any credibility to exist with our organization, because our long term ability to create a successful team goes well beyond this one season.

We start making calls like this, we will be the laughing stock in the national media for more than just losing games. And that tag would stay with us for a long, long time (well after Coach Capers & co. have left the building).
__________________
"Football is only a diversion." ~ HOUSTON TEXANS
Double Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:09 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Ad Management by RedTyger