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Old 10-05-2005   #1
WildBlackBear32
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Default MY offseason...Ditch the 3-4???

I'm gonna catch a lot of flak for this but I'll give'er a go anyway...

I don't think I'm alone when I say this, but the 3-4 sure as hell isn't working for us. Getting 4 sacks total and 2 from your linebackers and basically no pressure from what I gather, just doesnt cut it.

Doing a quick look at the "better" defenses in the league, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Indy, Carolina(whose sack totals are pretty low this year though, since Jenkins has gone down and JPep has at LEAST two guys on him every play), Cincinatti, Chicago etc etc etc...all run the 4-3 and get constant pressure on the QB. All of these teams, with the exception of Carolina, -1, has a positive turnover margin(this goes without mentioning we havent force ONE(1)(uno) turnover all year...).

Now I know we have been building on the 3-4 since the beginning, but I really, really, think it's time to scrap it. Going into this season, we had put a lot of faith in our LBs, specifically Babin and Peek. This obviously was false faith since they have been less than spectacular. The D-Line has been suprisingly solid this season as Payne and Smith have looked good. I'm hoping TJ can live up to the hype as well, if so, we'll have a solid line for another few years.

On to the offseason. This years draft has two physical freaks at DE. Mario Williams and my boy Matthi Kiwi both have the physical tools and speed to become great players in the league. Both guys have the talent to be top 10 players in the draft next years. Given our projected draft position in the top 3, we'd certainly get our pick of the litter. However, I say trade down to about 7-8ish with say the Jets(who I think will fall to that range) or Detroit. Both teams I feel would have interest in Leinart and the Jets would probably be interested in Bush given Martin is getting up there. A deal like this could probably also get us another 2nd rounder and maybe a 4-5th rounder as well.

That gives us...

#7-8
#33-35
#40-42
2 3rd Rounders
Maybe 2 4ths or 5ths.

We can package the 2 second rounders or a 2nd rounder and the 2 3rds and ship it to Denver for one of their 1st rounders, depending on the value chart and such.

Now we are looking at...

7-8
15-20
2 3rd rounders

or

7-8
15-20
40-42

Given these two scenarios my draft looks like...

1. Mario Williams/Matthi Kiwi
1. Macneil/Scott/Trueblood
3. Dom Byrd(USC TE)
3. Thomas Howard(UTEP OLB)
4. Patrick Ross/Ryan Cook (both Centers)
4. Manese Hapoi (UW DT)

or

1. Mario/Kiwi
1. Macneil/Scott/Trueblood
2. Leonard Pope (UGA TE)
4. Patrick Ross/Ryan Cook (both Centers)
4. Manese Hapoi (UW DT)


The defensive front 7 now looks like(take it easy on me, I'm not too familiar with moving guys around in schemes...)

Mario/Kiwi - TJ - Payne - Smith
===Depth=== Babin(projected to DE, similar to Suggs?), Hapoi, Walker, Ioane as the rotational fatboys.

Peek - Greenwood - Wong
===Depth=== Howard, Anderson, Polk, couple FAs.

There ya go boys and gals. Whack away.
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Old 10-05-2005   #2
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I'm suprise I don't see D'Brickashaw up there. He should also be a priority tackle to pick up. I know that the Jags would love to have him right now...
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Old 10-05-2005   #3
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I'm suprise I don't see D'Brickashaw up there. He should also be a priority tackle to pick up...
I don't have him falling to 15-20.
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Old 10-05-2005   #4
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M. Kiwanuka has great size and athleticism, as well as the mental make up. Last time I saw him play, his tackling needed some work but he is a physical freak. However, if we have a pick that high and have a chance for D'Brickashaw, and we are convinced he is in the Pace-Boselli mode, I don't think we have any choice but to take him. I would rather get that franchise LT than get a DE simply because we decide we need a 4-3 instead.
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Old 10-05-2005   #5
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Originally Posted by ledzeppelin269
M. Kiwanuka has great size and athleticism, as well as the mental make up. Last time I saw him play, his tackling needed some work but he is a physical freak. However, if we have a pick that high and have a chance for D'Brickashaw, and we are convinced he is in the Pace-Boselli mode, I don't think we have any choice but to take him. I would rather get that franchise LT than get a DE simply because we decide we need a 4-3 instead.

Given my situation we are getting a Franchise LT. Thats what Scott(really like him), Macneil(guy blocked for 3 first rounders last year, says something) and Trueblood are. This years Tackle crop is so deep you could probably get an anchor in the mid 2nd round. However, at DE you got those two freaks then not much after that.
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Old 10-05-2005   #6
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how about a 4-4?
the Texans draft kiwi, and it looks like this

DRob Kiwi-TJ-Payne-Smith Pbuc

Peek-Wong-Greenwood-Babin

Coleman
2nd string looks like this

Petey Walker-Ioane-Deloach-Anderson Bell

Pettway-Evans-Polk-Drafted guy
Brown
theTexans if they are top 3 trade down to 8th or something. There they grab kiwi. They package a 3rd and they 2nd they probably get for the trade and move back into the 1st. there they grab a LT. then in the 2nd they get a good passrushing OLB. he moves into 2nd string OLB.
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Old 10-05-2005   #7
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If we traded back to 7-8 and pick up a 2nd round to I would do somthing like this.
If possible trade back a little further and still get one of these LT and add more picks.
RD1 - Best LT left on board Dbrick, E Winston, J Scott, M Mcneil
RD1 - AJ Hawk or Chad Greenway,
RD2 - BPA out of Dline, Te, C, RG, CB if Pbuch continues to play bad.
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Old 10-05-2005   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rmartin65
how about a 4-4?
the Texans draft kiwi, and it looks like this

DRob Kiwi-TJ-Payne-Smith Pbuc

Peek-Wong-Greenwood-Babin

Coleman
2nd string looks like this

Petey Walker-Ioane-Deloach-Anderson Bell

Pettway-Evans-Polk-Drafted guy
Brown
theTexans if they are top 3 trade down to 8th or something. There they grab kiwi. They package a 3rd and they 2nd they probably get for the trade and move back into the 1st. there they grab a LT. then in the 2nd they get a good passrushing OLB. he moves into 2nd string OLB.
As long as we have 4 down linemen, I would be happy. We are applying terrible, terrible amounts of pressure on QBs with the current 34, something NEEDS to be done.
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Old 10-05-2005   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubbajwp
If we traded back to 7-8 and pick up a 2nd round to I would do somthing like this.
If possible trade back a little further and still get one of these LT and add more picks.
RD1 - Best LT left on board Dbrick, E Winston, J Scott, M Mcneil
RD1 - AJ Hawk or Chad Greenway,
RD2 - BPA out of Dline, Te, C, RG, CB if Pbuch continues to play bad.
If we get Hawk/Greenway what do we do with Babin and Peek? Rotate them in?? Realistically, LB is one of the last places I would go in the first round.
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Old 10-05-2005   #10
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If DBrick is head and shoulders above the other LT, even if they are "serviceable" LTs, I would rather go ahead and get him anyway. Mario and Mathias don't seem like sure things just yet, I don't really know why. Of course, nothing is when it comes to the draft, but I think we'd have a better chance of getting a great pass rusher in FA or later on, atleast a much better chance than another top LT.
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Old 10-05-2005   #11
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If DBrick is still on the board when we pick, I don't see how we couldn't pick him. You don't pass on a talent like that.
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Old 10-05-2005   #12
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If DBrick is still on the board when we pick, I don't see how we couldn't pick him. You don't pass on a talent like that.
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Old 10-05-2005   #13
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I WAS of the opinion that the 3-4 was the way to go.. but after seeing these dominant and FAST 4-3 defenses for the last 4 years.. im thinking that maybe we should change it along with our coaching staff.

Its entirely possible that we WILL switch to a 4-3 considering our lack of talent at LB and the good chance that we will have some new coaches next season. If ya look at the actual GOOD players that we have... it seems like we would have an easier time putting out a quality 4-3 defense than a 3-4.

It IS true that the best defenses in the league..statistically.. have been 3-4s..but the defenses that have had the most impact on games, in my opinion, have been the 4-3s. They are the ones coming up with the sacks, interceptions, and tackles for a loss (or at least this is how it has seemed to me..i have no stats to prove that).. but look at the superbowls.

If you were to remove New England from the equation for the last 5 years.. it would look like this.

4-3s in the superbowl: 5
3-4s in the superbowl: 2

with NE in it.. it is tied at five 4-3s and five 3-4s


That doesnt exactly show that 3-4s are the answer.. especially when you consider that NE is a very special case.

Nope.. im hoping that we will, somehow, get Monte Kiffen from Tampa Bay. That is a truely awesome 4-3 defense.
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Old 10-05-2005   #14
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"Very special case"? I think that one team could repeatedly have success with it, would actually give it more credit. Our defense has a lot of raw athletes as well as some talent and veteran experience on it. Typically, that wouldn't rank you #32 in the league. I've lost faith in Fangio getting things done on D. He was run out of Indy for a reason.
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Old 10-06-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ledzeppelin269
"Very special case"? I think that one team could repeatedly have success with it, would actually give it more credit. Our defense has a lot of raw athletes as well as some talent and veteran experience on it. Typically, that wouldn't rank you #32 in the league. I've lost faith in Fangio getting things done on D. He was run out of Indy for a reason.
excellent post! if Palmer can be fired (justified- almost immediate improvement) then Fangio can take the brunt of the blow for the defensive failures. the Texans have the players to be much better than they are in the 3-4- promote Jon Hoke
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Old 10-06-2005   #16
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Originally Posted by Grid
If you were to remove New England from the equation for the last 5 years.. it would look like this.

4-3s in the superbowl: 5
3-4s in the superbowl: 2

with NE in it.. it is tied at five 4-3s and five 3-4s

That doesnt exactly show that 3-4s are the answer.. especially when you consider that NE is a very special case.
That doesn't really give the full picture. Only 3-5 teams have played the 3-4 in that time period. That means 3-4 teams had at most 25 chances to make the SB (5 teams per year, 5 years). 4-3 teams have had 135 chances during the same time period. Having the 3-4 appear half the time in the SB seems like a pretty strong success statement. It is why since 5 years ago more teams have become 3-4 or have starting mixing in 3-4 looks instead of the other way around.
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Old 10-06-2005   #17
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I don't have him falling to 15-20.
For the texans? Seriously, they will probably have a top 5 pick. If he's available, the texans should pick him up.
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Old 10-06-2005   #18
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For the texans? Seriously, they will probably have a top 5 pick. If he's available, the texans should pick him up.

Completely defeating the whole purpose of this thread...
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Old 10-06-2005   #19
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Originally Posted by WildBlackBear32
and the Jets would probably be interested in Bush given Martin is getting up there.
Jets signed Derrick Blaylock in the offseason. Not a scrub RB by any means. Good post though.
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Old 10-06-2005   #20
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For the texans? Seriously, they will probably have a top 5 pick. If he's available, the texans should pick him up.
Try a least reading the thread so your silly, too much time on your hands, jabs at least make sense. Thanks.
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