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Old 09-18-2005   #81
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Originally Posted by WildBlackBear32
No doubt. The debate then became fumble recoveries over forced fumbles. I honestly can't see anyone who has an OUNCE of football knowledge will take Forced Fumbles over Fumble recoveries. Thats like taking pass deflections over interceptions.
I'm not sure where you're going here, but I don't see how you can put a value on a stat without relating it to a particular play in a particular game it came in.

For instance a good corner can get 20 to 30 pass deflections a season, and maybe 7 or 8 INTs. If 10 of those pass deflections came on 4th down wouldn't that be 10 forced changes of possessions? That'd be better than 7 or 8 turn overs right?

Similarly a forced fumble on 3rd or 4th down could kill a drive or force a change of possession. Also, a the value of a sack or pressure also would depend on the particular play it occured in a particular game. A sack on 1st down wouldn't be nearly as valuable as a pressure that forced an INT in the red zone...right?

The point being that stats are great but don't say everything about a game. Keep in mind that if stats meant everything then Jay Foreman would've been a very good starting LB since he recorded lots of tackles albeit 5 yards from the LOS.
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Old 09-18-2005   #82
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I don't know, but I got Tiki Barber circa 2000-2003. on the phone and he says quite often.
You had to go back 2 years to find a player who frequently dropped the ball...
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Old 09-18-2005   #83
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Originally Posted by stevo3883
just this past year, we had Demarcus Ware, Shawn Merriman, David Pollack, Derrick Johnson all being drafted in the top 17.

Then at DT we have Travis Johnson at 16, castillo at 28 and patterson at 31.

the year before we had 3 DT's taken in the middle 1st(tommy harris, vince wilfork, marcus tubbs), with 2 olb's taken in the mid-late 1st(d.j. williams, our own pride and joy babin) with 5 more olbs going in the second round comapred to 2 dt's.

Are you really so inept as to think a big NT like Seth Payne is as valuable as a great OLB? He occupys 1 blocker maybe 2 sometimes, but our lbs dont make plays.

We could have him occupy 1 maybe 2 sometimes, and have DJ make plays.

one was a need, one was for depth. We arent good enough to draft for depth yet, we need quality starters first.
I'll give you the best example I got and if that doesn't make it clear enough for you, then there's nothing else I can do:

Pittsburgh Steelers' (a team that knows a little about the 3-4) 2001 Draft:

First Round - Casey Hampton (NT)
Second Round - Kendrell Bell (ILB)

And you can add in all the Ware's, Babin's, etc. that you want and it still won't add up to more LBs being taken in the first round than DT's/NT's.

It's simple math. Simple enough that somebody as inept as I am can understand.
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Old 09-18-2005   #84
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Originally Posted by texan279
You had to go back 2 years to find a player who frequently dropped the ball...
Coulda said Ahman Green, but I like to pick on Tiki more.
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Old 09-18-2005   #85
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Originally Posted by WildBlackBear32
Can a turnover be created if a fumble is not recovered??? Common sense, think here. You can force 100000 fumbles and if you dont recover a single one it dont mean ****.
This really is a did the chicken or the egg come first type of scenerio.
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Old 09-18-2005   #86
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Originally Posted by Huge
I'll give you the best example I got and if that doesn't make it clear enough for you, then there's nothing else I can do:

Pittsburgh Steelers' (a team that knows a little about the 3-4) 2001 Draft:

First Round - Casey Hampton (NT)
Second Round - Kendrell Bell (ILB)

And you can add in all the Ware's, Babin's, etc. that you want and it still won't add up to more LBs being taken in the first round than DT's/NT's.

It's simple math. Simple enough that somebody as inept as I am can understand.
and yet that doesnt work because TJ couldnt hold Hampton's jock outta college, while DJ is better than Bell is right now (Vermeil said hes the best LB hes ever coached, and theyre on the same team)
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Old 09-18-2005   #87
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Originally Posted by Huge
I'll give you the best example I got and if that doesn't make it clear enough for you, then there's nothing else I can do:

Pittsburgh Steelers' (a team that knows a little about the 3-4) 2001 Draft:

First Round - Casey Hampton (NT)
Second Round - Kendrell Bell (ILB)

And you can add in all the Ware's, Babin's, etc. that you want and it still won't add up to more LBs being taken in the first round than DT's/NT's.

It's simple math. Simple enough that somebody as inept as I am can understand.

and the person that came up with the 1st round arguement was you, not me.

You see more stud OLB's drafted much higher than stud DT's, you know why? BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE VALUABLE!
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Old 09-18-2005   #88
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Originally Posted by Keldar
Can we please stop the DJ worship????? The dude was an excellent college player, he has looked decent so far. I personally think he will not amount to much in the NFL, but that is my personal opinion that could end up being wrong.

Nevertheless, the endless pining over the softy is sickening!!! He does not play for us, and will not play for us during the current regime. :brickwall
actually in 2 or 3 years(or whenerver e goes to free agency) we can try to sign him!
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Old 09-18-2005   #89
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I think we can ALL agree on this, DJ could be no worse than the group we currently have pretending to be......err, playing linebacker.

That's the closest to a compliment I have for Mr. Locally Overrated, at this point.
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Old 09-19-2005   #90
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Originally Posted by stevo3883
and yet that doesnt work because TJ couldnt hold Hampton's jock outta college, while DJ is better than Bell is right now (Vermeil said hes the best LB hes ever coached, and theyre on the same team)
So TJ wasn't as good as Hampton coming out of college but still goes much higher in the first than Hampton. What does that tell you about the value of defensive linemen?

I too think DJ is a better LB than Bell. But that doesn't make Bell a bad LB (despite his 2nd round draft status behind a defensive lineman). Bell already has a Defensive Rookie of the Year along with a Pro Bowl appearance (with another alternate selection).

All this as a 2nd round pick...behind a defensive lineman.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo3883
and the person that came up with the 1st round arguement was you, not me.

You see more stud OLB's drafted much higher than stud DT's, you know why? BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE VALUABLE!
I came up with the first round argument because you stated that not many DT's are taken early on in the draft. Is there some other meaning between being taken in the first round and being taken early?

Again, here's a recap of the last 5 drafts:

2001:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Gerrard Warren - 3rd overall
Justin Smith - 4th overall
Richard Seymour - 6th overall
Damione Lewis - 12th overall
Marcus Stroud - 13th overall
Casey Hampton - 19th overall
Ryan Pickett - 29th overall

LBs:
Zero taken in the first round

2002:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Ryan Sims - 6th overall
John Henderson - 9th overall
Wendell Bryant - 12th overall
Albert Haynesworth - 15th overall

LBs:
Napoleon Harris - 23rd overall
Robert Thomas - 31st overall

2003:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Dewayne Robertson - 4th overall
Johnathan Sullivan - 6th overall
Kevin Williams - 8th overall
Jimmy Kennedy - 12th overall
Ty Warren - 13th overall
William Joseph - 25th overall

LBs:
Terrell Suggs - 10th overall
Nick Barnett - 29th overall

2004:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Tommie Harris - 14th overall
Vince Wilfork - 21st overall
Marcus Tubbs - 23rd overall

LB's:
Jonathan Vilma - 12th overall
D.J. Williams - 17th overall
Jason Babin - 27th overall

2005:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Travis Johnson - 16th overall
Marcus Spears - 20th overall
Luis Castillo - 28th overall
Mike Patterson - 31st overall

LB's:
Demarcus Ware - 11th overall
Shawne Merriman - 12th overall
Derrick Johnson - 15th overall
David Pollack - 17th overall

By my count, that's:
24 Defensive lineman (this doesn't include DE's that would be too small for 3-4 systems)
11 LB's (to include those that were DE in college that projected as OLBs in the pros)

Average drafting position of these players:

Defensive linemen - 14.5
LB's - 18.5

So with having more than twice as many selections in the first round and being drafted, on average, 4 spots higher, how do you figure LB's are drafted much higher than defensive lineman?

Want another example? How 'bout New England (another team that knows a little something about running a 3-4 defense).

Starting line-up:
LDE - Ty Warren - 13th overall
NT - Vince Wolfork - 21st overall
RDE - Richard Seymour - 6th overall

LOLB - Mike Vrabel - 91st overall (Pittsburgh...another 3-4 team)
LILB - Monty Biesel - 107th overall (Kansas City) ... or Teddy Bruschi - 86th overall
RILB - Chad Brown - 44th overall (Pittsburgh...again)
ROLB - Rosevelt Colvin - 111th overall ... or Willie McGinest - 4th overall

Again, just like Pittsburgh, tell me where New England placed their priorities when drafting for their front 7. And if you feel they took the wrong approach, explain their results on the field that prove otherwise.
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Old 09-19-2005   #91
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Originally Posted by RTP2110
Why all the negtavity on Pitts? The guy was a 3rd round pick, and has played every offensive snap in the history of the team.
Watch the games, if Chester Pitts was not starting for the Texans who would he start for - No One. Just becasuse you've played every game for the Texans doesn't make you a legitimate pro.
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Old 09-19-2005   #92
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Pitts is one of our few solid starters.
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Old 09-19-2005   #93
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that was a great post HUGE

you can also clearly see over the last couple of years that trend is changing,
teams are drafting the dynamic playmakers @ linebacker over tackles, both a reflection of teams converting to the Patriots 3-4 & needing those type of players and the draft having more talent in the linebacker pool more so than the tackle pool.

Casserly felt he had the players needed at OLB & ILB to run the 3-4 in place allowing him to address the need on the interior line. But here is the rub, THE TEXANS PASSED ON THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS A NEED.

Not that I'm a GM but I would prefeer the franchise to build the future & foundation by selecting the BPA via the draft. then add depth & fulfill needs by adding key free agents. as an expansion franchise you don't trade multiple draft picks, you need those for the future, what you do is address need by spending capital on the best free agents available who fit those needs.

Derrick Johnson will be a pro-bowl MLB if you have a chance to draft him you do it, if you have to change the system you do it. players of this caliber are a premium, thats what drafting is all about. Travis Johnson will be a starter for the Texans, maybe even going to a couple Pro Bowls? but when your passing on future potentially hall of fame material over need then your gonna naturally fall behind the curve.
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Old 09-19-2005   #94
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Originally Posted by beerlover
that was a great post HUGE

you can also clearly see over the last couple of years that trend is changing,
teams are drafting the dynamic playmakers @ linebacker over tackles, both a reflection of teams converting to the Patriots 3-4 & needing those type of players and the draft having more talent in the linebacker pool more so than the tackle pool.
I think that "trend" had more to do with available players than changing schemes. IOW, if there's a quality DL to be drafted, he's going to be drafted ahead of the quality LB. And there is a ton of history I can provide to show evidence of this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by beerlover
Casserly felt he had the players needed at OLB & ILB to run the 3-4 in place allowing him to address the need on the interior line. But here is the rub, THE TEXANS PASSED ON THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS A NEED.
If Casserly felt he had the LBs to run their 3-4, then he didn't pass on an area of need. At the time, DL was the position of need. Now whether or not he's proven to be wrong remains to be seen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by beerlover
Not that I'm a GM but I would prefeer the franchise to build the future & foundation by selecting the BPA via the draft. then add depth & fulfill needs by adding key free agents. as an expansion franchise you don't trade multiple draft picks, you need those for the future, what you do is address need by spending capital on the best free agents available who fit those needs.
I agree with all this. I just don't agree that DJ was the best fit for the draft selection at the time. Two games into their career will not prove anybody right or wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by beerlover
Derrick Johnson will be a pro-bowl MLB if you have a chance to draft him you do it, if you have to change the system you do it. players of this caliber are a premium, thats what drafting is all about. Travis Johnson will be a starter for the Texans, maybe even going to a couple Pro Bowls? but when your passing on future potentially hall of fame material over need then your gonna naturally fall behind the curve.
Again, New England and Pittsburgh have been very successful running their 3-4 w/o superstar LBs. Well, they became superstars but that had nothing to do with where they were drafted.

Kansas City was in a good position to draft Johnson (rumors were that they actually wanted Thomas Davis) but that was only because they addressed their DL in previous drafts. Again, the DL coming before the LBs. Now there's a trend.
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Old 09-19-2005   #95
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Originally Posted by Huge
So TJ wasn't as good as Hampton coming out of college but still goes much higher in the first than Hampton. What does that tell you about the value of defensive linemen?

I too think DJ is a better LB than Bell. But that doesn't make Bell a bad LB (despite his 2nd round draft status behind a defensive lineman). Bell already has a Defensive Rookie of the Year along with a Pro Bowl appearance (with another alternate selection).

All this as a 2nd round pick...behind a defensive lineman.


I came up with the first round argument because you stated that not many DT's are taken early on in the draft. Is there some other meaning between being taken in the first round and being taken early?

Again, here's a recap of the last 5 drafts:

2001:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Gerrard Warren - 3rd overall
Justin Smith - 4th overall
Richard Seymour - 6th overall
Damione Lewis - 12th overall
Marcus Stroud - 13th overall
Casey Hampton - 19th overall
Ryan Pickett - 29th overall

LBs:
Zero taken in the first round

2002:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Ryan Sims - 6th overall
John Henderson - 9th overall
Wendell Bryant - 12th overall
Albert Haynesworth - 15th overall

LBs:
Napoleon Harris - 23rd overall
Robert Thomas - 31st overall

2003:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Dewayne Robertson - 4th overall
Johnathan Sullivan - 6th overall
Kevin Williams - 8th overall
Jimmy Kennedy - 12th overall
Ty Warren - 13th overall
William Joseph - 25th overall

LBs:
Terrell Suggs - 10th overall
Nick Barnett - 29th overall

2004:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Tommie Harris - 14th overall
Vince Wilfork - 21st overall
Marcus Tubbs - 23rd overall

LB's:
Jonathan Vilma - 12th overall
D.J. Williams - 17th overall
Jason Babin - 27th overall

2005:
DT's, NT's and DE's in 3-4 systems:
Travis Johnson - 16th overall
Marcus Spears - 20th overall
Luis Castillo - 28th overall
Mike Patterson - 31st overall

LB's:
Demarcus Ware - 11th overall
Shawne Merriman - 12th overall
Derrick Johnson - 15th overall
David Pollack - 17th overall

By my count, that's:
24 Defensive lineman (this doesn't include DE's that would be too small for 3-4 systems)
11 LB's (to include those that were DE in college that projected as OLBs in the pros)

Average drafting position of these players:

Defensive linemen - 14.5
LB's - 18.5

So with having more than twice as many selections in the first round and being drafted, on average, 4 spots higher, how do you figure LB's are drafted much higher than defensive lineman?

Want another example? How 'bout New England (another team that knows a little something about running a 3-4 defense).

Starting line-up:
LDE - Ty Warren - 13th overall
NT - Vince Wolfork - 21st overall
RDE - Richard Seymour - 6th overall

LOLB - Mike Vrabel - 91st overall (Pittsburgh...another 3-4 team)
LILB - Monty Biesel - 107th overall (Kansas City) ... or Teddy Bruschi - 86th overall
RILB - Chad Brown - 44th overall (Pittsburgh...again)
ROLB - Rosevelt Colvin - 111th overall ... or Willie McGinest - 4th overall

Again, just like Pittsburgh, tell me where New England placed their priorities when drafting for their front 7. And if you feel they took the wrong approach, explain their results on the field that prove otherwise.

Why are you counting Defensive Ends?

We are talking about tackles, you threw in a whole other position.

You just dont seem to understand values. The highest value pos is CB, then there are DE's and LB's if the team is a 4-3 the DE is more valuable, but if its a 3-4 the lb is more valuable, then a 4-3 DT, then a 3-4 DT, then a safety

this is all common sense
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Old 09-19-2005   #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo3883
Why are you counting Defensive Ends?

We are talking about tackles, you threw in a whole other position.

You just dont seem to understand values. The highest value pos is CB, then there are DE's and LB's if the team is a 4-3 the DE is more valuable, but if its a 3-4 the lb is more valuable, then a 4-3 DT, then a 3-4 DT, then a safety

this is all common sense
More times than not, DT's that are drafted from 4-3 go on to play DE's in the 3-4. There are exceptions (like Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, etc) that stay inside but for the most part, they will move outside. And since we're talking DTs, they were included.

Another reason I'm counting defensive ends is that that's the position Travis Johnson plays. Don't you think it's relevent to show the history of his position over the past few years compared to Derrick Johnson's? Don't you think that'd be a direct reflection of how much value has been placed on their positions over time? If not, why?

If I don't seem to understand the values, then neither does Bill Belichick or Bill Cowher (see the blatant evidence posted above). And no offense, but I'd take their side over yours any day of the week.
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