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Old 09-16-2005   #1
Texan1
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Default Can someone explain...

Being that we are an expansion franchise and started from zero, I would think everyone would assume we would need numerous draft selections to build a base of talent. Some will pan out, some wonít Ė but we will have good odds with many selections we are given as a new franchise. However, over the last two years, Casserly has taken the opposite approach, essentially trading away draft picks to address areas. Much like you would expect from a team that has just missed going to the Super Bowl. Let me provide you with 2 examples:

We traded 3 picks (2nd, 3rd, & 4th) to move up to select Babin in the draft two years ago.
We traded 2 picks (2nd, 3rd) to trade for Buchanan.

To make the situation more confounding - Casserly didnít make these moves to address acute needs. It has been obvious to everyone for the last two years - our glaring needs are an outside pass rushing linebacker, 2nd receiver, and offensive line.

Yet we traded 5 draft picks for a non pass rushing linebacker and a cornerback. Iíll even give Casserly the benefit of the doubt and say Buchanan may be able to eventually play to the level of an Aaron Glenn. Babin? No need addressed.

So I donít get it Ė what did we get for giving up 5 desperately needed draft picks? And now, with all of our picks gone Ė where do we go from here? Iím not a salary cap expert, but if he has managed our cap room like our drafts picks Ė we probably donít have room for free agents either.

Maybe someone can explain this to me and make me feel better about the prospects of this organization.
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Old 09-16-2005   #2
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Trading away draft picks is always risky business. Casserly is playing the percentages... A very high percentage of first round picks end up starting within a few years of being drafted. The second round is like 15 percent less than the third round, the third round there is even a bigger drop off and so on and so forth. I dont know the exact percentages but I'm sure there are some stat guru's on this board that could get them. We seem to be drafting for starters and signing free agents for depth. I give this team one more year of faith and then I'll start critisizing their system a lot more than I have been. Untill then... I'm on board.
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Old 09-16-2005   #3
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Originally Posted by Texan1
So I donít get it Ė what did we get for giving up 5 desperately needed draft picks? And now, with all of our picks gone Ė where do we go from here? Iím not a salary cap expert, but if he has managed our cap room like our drafts picks Ė we probably donít have room for free agents either.

Maybe someone can explain this to me and make me feel better about the prospects of this organization.
all good points & let me make it clear there is no one right way to do things. the Texans idea was in fact they needed help now, front line starters and both Buchanan & Babin are just that. plus it allows the Texans to structure their salary cap long term since they can tie these guys up at lower cost than your typical free agent. of course the Buchanan contract is due next year, but if he adapts well & fits the system in due time a contract proposel will be offered.

I'm a huge fan of the NFL draft and it is dissapointing when they trade away quality picks when you've researched and think someone could really help the Texans but in reality these are the more risky moves, buisness wise & productivity wise. That being said most of the holes are now filled with quality players since the expansion period so the Texans can now focus more on development and keep their picks.
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Old 09-16-2005   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texan1
Being that we are an expansion franchise and started from zero, I would think everyone would assume we would need numerous draft selections to build a base of talent. Some will pan out, some wonít Ė but we will have good odds with many selections we are given as a new franchise. However, over the last two years, Casserly has taken the opposite approach, essentially trading away draft picks to address areas. Much like you would expect from a team that has just missed going to the Super Bowl. Let me provide you with 2 examples:

We traded 3 picks (2nd, 3rd, & 4th) to move up to select Babin in the draft two years ago.
We traded 2 picks (2nd, 3rd) to trade for Buchanan.

To make the situation more confounding - Casserly didnít make these moves to address acute needs. It has been obvious to everyone for the last two years - our glaring needs are an outside pass rushing linebacker, 2nd receiver, and offensive line.

Yet we traded 5 draft picks for a non pass rushing linebacker and a cornerback. Iíll even give Casserly the benefit of the doubt and say Buchanan may be able to eventually play to the level of an Aaron Glenn. Babin? No need addressed.

So I donít get it Ė what did we get for giving up 5 desperately needed draft picks? And now, with all of our picks gone Ė where do we go from here? Iím not a salary cap expert, but if he has managed our cap room like our drafts picks Ė we probably donít have room for free agents either.

Maybe someone can explain this to me and make me feel better about the prospects of this organization.
I am certainly not a fan boy of the Texans front office and coach staff but if they have done anything right it is Drafting and Salary Cap management.

They wanted to get a pass rushing 3-4 Linebacker in this years draft. They wanted their #1 pick to be Ware. But he got picked by the Cowboys before we could get him. So they went with the best pass rushing D-lineman they could get and the traded down and picked up an extra #3 pick. (Our pass rush is about as bad as our O-line and there was not an O-lineman on the board worth the pick we had.)

Also we drafted Drew Henson last year w/ a #6 pick and traded him shortly after for a #3 pick to Dallas.

We have picked up extra picks along the way.

Word on the street is that next years class is loaded with O-lineman, On Sirius NFL radio they are saying it might be the best draft of O-lineman ever, and that 2005 was a weak draft for O-lineman.

Glenn had one year left as good cover guy. He was already starting to lose a step at the end of last year. He was expensive and we saw an opportunity to replace him with younger talent. We could have waited one more year but we jumped when the opportunity for P-buc presented its self.

Unfortunately as an expansion team we had more holes in our roster than swiss cheese. We had a lot of glaring of needs.

Last edited by LBC_Justin; 09-16-2005 at 04:50 PM.
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Old 09-16-2005   #5
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HardKnockTexan,

I'm glad your on board with the Texans. I think we have done well when we have picks to use.

Carr, A Johnson. T Johnson, Robinson, Davis, Morency, Peek, Wand, Ragone, Henson (got more picks), Earl, Mathis, C Brown, - are all examples of how we improved with the draft (I would include Babin, if it weren't for the cost \ benefit scenario of giving up the extra picks). This represents probably over 80% of our total picks to date. Almost 100% of picks between first and fourth rounds have been impact players (Joppru injury only issue). This is why I hate to see us give away all those picks.

Looks like pretty good odds of getting impact players in the draft to me.
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Old 09-16-2005   #6
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beerlover,

Granted Buchanan & Babin add value - as they are starters. I'm just not on board with the cost \ benefit. Given that we had a short term option at corner with Glen and needed LB speed addressed with Peek - I would have perferred to see those 5 picks spread out in the early rounds to address immediate needs such as offenisve line, WR(2), and best avialable LB.
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Old 09-16-2005   #7
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i like babin but he needs to have a good year, IMO. there's a couple of good lb's in the draft
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Old 09-16-2005   #8
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Originally Posted by Texan1
beerlover,

Granted Buchanan & Babin add value - as they are starters. I'm just not on board with the cost \ benefit. Given that we had a short term option at corner with Glen and needed LB speed addressed with Peek - I would have perferred to see those 5 picks spread out in the early rounds to address immediate needs such as offenisve line, WR(2), and best avialable LB.
thats fine, like I said there is more than one way to skin a :cat:

here is a fun little exercise for you or anyone else to do for that matter, of course you have to consider hindsight 20/20. but exactly who would be your 5 picks (two of those would be replacements for Babin & Buchanan) from the 04/05 drafts?
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Old 09-16-2005   #9
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Originally Posted by Texan1
To make the situation more confounding - Casserly didnít make these moves to address acute needs. It has been obvious to everyone for the last two years - our glaring needs are an outside pass rushing linebacker, 2nd receiver, and offensive line.

Yet we traded 5 draft picks for a non pass rushing linebacker ... Babin? No need addressed.
Nobody is going to be able to explain it to you if you can't see Babin was obviously drafted to be a pass rushing OLB. Capers compared him at the time to Kevin Greene--#3 on the all time sack list and #1 LB on the list. The price may have been high, but the Texans paid it exactly because that's the potential they thought they were getting.
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Old 09-16-2005   #10
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Basically the Texans need playmakers all over the place. The 4 most important positions for a 3-4 defense are the two CB's and two OLB's. Casserly obviously felt that Babin and Buchanon were 1st round quality players that he could get without using a 1st rounder. So lets take a look at these two.

Babin had 30 sacks his last two seasons in college and excelled in the games against BCS conference teams. He was also solid against the run. Usually a college DE "tweaner" takes 3 seasons to develop into a a productive 3-4 OLB. So I would expect some progress from him this year, but a huge jump in his production next season. In his first season, he was good against the run, but lacked that pass-rushing ability that he exhibited in college. He is a solid player, but hasn't played up to his draft status YET. As a converted DE, he needs to be given time to adjust to the new position.

Buchanon was a highly rated CB prospect when he was drafted a few years ago (taken in the top half of 1st round in 2002). He was a TD machine his first two seasons (both as a CB and a punt returner). However, when he missed out on the INT he often got burned. Last year he didn't have the big plays and seemed to get burned even more. That might have been due to the coaching change.

He still has all of those physical tools that made him a playmaker his first two seasons. The Texans obviously felt that his issues had more to do with coaching and the atmosphere in Oakland than with PB himself. Only time will tell if they are right.

I don't have an issue with these trades. We have a ton of average players and we need playmakers. These two may not pan out, but the attempt to add star players WAS made. What else can you ask for? The handling of personnel is more of an art than a science, so mistakes WILL be made. The key is that we need some of these gambles to pay off.
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Old 09-16-2005   #11
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rmartin65,

My thoughts as well. Babin may be a serviceable linebacker, but it remains to be seen whether he can add enough value to outweigh the cost of aquisition. In my opinion, few players would be able to add such value in lieu of early picks for an expansion team. I for one hope he does and will glady apologize for questioning if he does.
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Old 09-16-2005   #12
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Default baby carr

We need to worry about Carr's touchdowns
I heard He has only 7 touchdowns, last 10 games
Is this true?
Is He over rated?
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Old 09-16-2005   #13
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2004 NFL Draft w/TEN:

Hou Gets:
27 Jason Babin (DE) Houston Texans (from Titans) Western Michigan

TEN uses the draft picks traded and gets:
40 Ben Troupe (TE) Tennessee Titans (from Houston) Florida
71 Randy Starks (DT) Tennessee Titans (from Houston) Maryland
103 Bo Schobel (DE) Tennessee Titans (from Houston) TCU

Looking back now, would we not have beene better off staying put and picking the guys TEN picked up? TE, still a needed position, DT and DE depth.

Could we not have a move at the end of the second round with TEN and gotten:
57 Antwan Odom (DE) Tennessee Titans Alabama
A player who I find similiar to Peek, and also happens to wear #98? Played against better compition than Babin and also was converting from DE to OLB.
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Old 09-16-2005   #14
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Ive not been impressed with Casserly at all.

Drafting a TE (Joppru)
Drafting a QB (Ragone) after you drafted Carr
Drafting Andre Johnson when you are a run orient first team and need O line help so you skip on Jordan Gross (That is not to say Andre is not worth the pick).

He passed up a chance to get someone like Pollack who has a full rev engine at DE this year and missed out on a few guys who you just shake your head at.

And the trades or people he has let go is AMAZING! to let JAMIE SHARPER GO was INSANE! Our best player on Defense and he is gone for what? Speed? Id rather have a guy who can tackle and know where to plug the hole than a guy who can run down the field 30 yeards and catch the guy who he should have tackled at the line.
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Old 09-16-2005   #15
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beerlover,

Yes there is. If I get time I'll take you up on your offer. IMO, judging from our 2 - 4 round picks in the past, I think it would improve our current positon.
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Old 09-16-2005   #16
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Goldeagle,

I think Johnson was a nice pick. Pro bowl talent is hard to come by. Joppru, I can't hang on Casserly, who knew he would be permanetly injuries. Ragone was a head scratcher, maybe it was cap related - don't know.

I can't comment on the rest, sounds like you know more than I do. Just started looking into this when without explanation we started to look like we took a step back.
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Old 09-16-2005   #17
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LcRod,

I doubt we would have made the same picks as TEN (hopefully some OL). Looking at our past picks, we've made good decisions in the draft, I assume we would have in those spots also. Anyway, its hindsight now.

You raise a good point in that Babin was from, I believe, a Div 2 program. Not sure what talent he faced there. Just doesn't add up for me. I hope I am wrong....
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Old 09-16-2005   #18
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LBC Justin,

Yes, Ware would have been nice. I think they have done well drafting as well, would like to see them with more picks. I don't know about salary cap, sounds like you follow it closely so I'll take your word for it.

Maybe its just growing pains this year - lets hope the fans stick with the team (go to games in mass). Its still in the early going for the franchise.
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Old 09-16-2005   #19
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TheOrge,

Interesting perspective, I agree with you on one thing - now only time will tell.

As for playmakers - sorry I have to disagree. I believe you alreayd have some - 3 on offense which is more than most teams have in the paridy days of the NFL. Congrats to Casserly for pulling that off - now how do they unleash them? They need more talent around them; this was my original question as to why its not looking like its there. If its something other than talent - thats another topic.
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Old 09-16-2005   #20
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I went back in my records to see who I had picked before the trades in my Mock Draft board for the Texans and while this is no reflection as to what the Texans would have done it does fairly well represent both the risk & reward of the draft. here are my conclusions from my own personal mock, assuming Babin & Buchanan excell as starters for the Texans, Tennessee is a push & Oakland a slight advantage (in the Texans favor).

2004-
#40 Michael Boulware LB Florida State, projected as a Safety in the NFL at the time the Texans needed one (drafted Earl Glenn in the 4th rd. #122). he was drafted by the Seahawks #53 so I would have paid 13 picks higher to draft him but he fit a need and had the talent to be immediate starter. Babin or Boulware you be the judge?
#71 Bernard Berrian WR Fresno State, David Carr's old running mate could have been a great fit as the Texans #2 receiver & also returns kicks. drafted by the Chicago Bears #78. Boulware & Berrian = Babin?
#103 Nat Dorsey OT Gerogia Tech (blocked for Hollings those 4 games) Vikings #115 (was traded to the Browns after rookie season for Melvin Fowler). adds very little to Boulware/Berrian just depth.

2005-
#47 Justin Miller CB Clemson wanted a young corner for Aaron Glenn to tuteledge but primarily as the featured return man. drafted by the N.Y. Jets #57 would need time to develop in the NFL would not expect to start until Glenn retired or moved to nickle. advantage Buchanan
#78 Darryl Blackstock OLB Virginia fits the 3-4 his coach is now defensive line coach with the Texans. would back-up Peek.
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