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Old 07-02-2014   #281
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by santo View Post
I'm still holding hope for Keenum. Things have always been tough for him, but like Hervoyel said, if Keenum can't beat Fitzpatrick, then it's time to move on and I'm ok with it.

But something tells me that he won't back down and somehow try to fight his way to win the starting job.
I hope you are right....that's exactly what Keenum SHOULD do. I respect that about him.
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Old 07-02-2014   #282
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Default Re: Bill O'Brien names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by jradMIT View Post
I understand the numbers, but you have to think that if defenses saw that as a weakness of his, they were going to dial up blitz after blitz. I would be interested to see the frequency of the blitzes per drop back. The problem I saw with him repeatedly was that he was terrible at throwing the ball away, he took way too many sacks. On top of that the sacks he took often were of the big loss variety.

I am in no way anti Keenum, for what its worth he was miles ahead of Yates, but the guy did not demonstrate the decision making skills of an acceptable NFL starter. Maybe against his peers he passes with a C-, but that says more about starting QB play than anything else. The guy flashed, but he too often didn't demonstrate consistency for most of the game.
Herein lie some more fallacies that a few people brought up according to eye test.
Obviously, there's some truth, but never at the level claimed.

From that series, the opponents brought 97 blitzes in 277 passing plays that Keenum was in for a 35% rate.
That's really somewhere near the norm in the NFL.

Schaub was at 32%, same as Flacco and Tannerhill.
Eli was at 33%, Dalton 34.

Some QBs that saw more blitzes were Alex Smith and Kaepernick at 36%, Newton 38, Wilson 39, and Geno Smith at 43.

The most important thing is that the numbers show that Keenum was not good, but still better than a handful of starters in the league.
What it means is that he can compete with the third tier QBs for the starting job.
For a first time starter, there's some possible upside there.

How much, or whether he can improve or not, nobody knows.

The same goes for the number of sacks he took (whether it's on him or the protection); it was also within the average range of starters in the league.
And let's remember, 5 of the 19 sacks were in his first start.
Also, if you look at the strength of schedule, Keenum's 8 opponents combine to form at least a top ten in difficulty level defensively.

Even when take away the sacks and pressures he brought unto his own (these numbers were presented in a different series by Greg Bedard at Sport Illustrated - using data from PFF), his protection was still ranked at least 5th worse in the league.

Tacked on the number of drops per pass attempts, which was worse than at least half the teams in the league, then you can really start to form a better idea how Keenum performed.

I haven't quite tied all these figures together, but I do have a fair overall picture.

To rate his performance at 28th among QBs that started at least 8 games last year is conservatively low.
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Old 07-02-2014   #283
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
That was the year that Palmer injured his throwing elbow during one of the first games of the season. Palmer sat out, then tried to come back the beginning of October but couldn't perform but as a lame-winged duck because of what several specialist finally determined to have had a virtually shredded his ulnar collateral ligament of his elbow. They ALL strongly recommended Tommy John surgery. In all the absences of Palmer that season, Fitzpatrick won the starting duties by default. In 13 games, he logged 8 TDs with 9 INTs and 38 sacks with 11 fumbles of which he lost 1/2.......ending up with a 70 QB rating leading the Bengals to a pretty pitifull 4-11-1 season.........sniffing nowhere close to a playoff birth.
This is exactly why it is very difficult to take that year as a marker for Fitz value. Too much change at a position that needs to develop its consistency. Additionally, trying to measure Fitz against Palmer in a system that was built around Palmer......does anyone believe for a minute that Fitz is Palmer 2.0??
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Old 07-02-2014   #284
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
I don't know if you have watched Savage. In college he wasn't known for overthrowing his receivers. Actually he doesn't only have a strong arm, he also has a very accurate arm. Very few balls really got away from him.

Savages problems have nothing to do with his arm strength, accuracy or footwork (although all can and should of course improve). His problems are going through his reads fast enough and dissecting a defense.

So true.....at Pitt there's only 1.75 seconds from the snap until 3 defenders are in the backfield.
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Old 07-02-2014   #285
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Very well said and true. I would like to add that even more impressive is when he did return to football at Pittsburgh he went 13 games 389 attempts 61.2 % 2958 for 7.6 avg with 21 TDs to only 9 INTs with basically a poor Oline.

Hopefully, O'Brien will continue what Coach Chryst began with Savage.
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His experience is part of the problem. He's never been on a team with a winning season. He's been kicked off of three teams looking for a starting QB. I'd find it hard to believe he's won back to back games in more than one season.

Not signing a QB from this FA class would have been a better move.
See 2011 season and 2013 season.
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Old 07-02-2014   #286
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Yes .. I am serious ... haha .... just look at Clowney vs Jason Ankrah ..... Ankrah comes from a better football program and his on the field stats are better than Clowney's.

Don't get me wrong, I want Savage to succeed but you guys are making him to be something really special when he hasn't shown didly squat yet. I hope he turns out to be a great steal in the 4th round.
Is Nebraska a better program than South Carolina? Are we talking about now or historically??
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Old 07-02-2014   #287
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Here is what you said



Pro day has very little impact on where a majority of players are picked. You think he could be projected a 5th rounder, have a good PRO day and then suddenly be projected a first rounder. The lack of play time in college is why he was drafted so low, and from what he showed when he did play, had he played a full career he would of been a 1st or early 2nd rounder.

Not to mention obviously Bill saw enough in him to wait until the 5th round to take a QB
....where he is a HIGH VALUE pick. Bill was very smart to pick him there....limited risk....and CHEAP!
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Old 07-02-2014   #288
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by bayoudreamn View Post
This is exactly why it is very difficult to take that year as a marker for Fitz value. Too much change at a position that needs to develop its consistency. Additionally, trying to measure Fitz against Palmer in a system that was built around Palmer......does anyone believe for a minute that Fitz is Palmer 2.0??
At least this time, Fitz will have the experience factor with OB's system being quite similar to the one Fitz ran for 4 years (?) In Buffalo.

He does have a good edge on Keenum here.
This system calls for the QB to get the ball out quickly to a playmakers in space and let them do their things.

The Texans have more weapons than those Bills (providing that AJ shows up).

The QB is not supposed to go deep more than the norm (looking at Brady's throw chart through the years).

I don't think it's a simple task for Keenum to beat out Fitz in TC and PS, when the bullets don't fly at top speed.
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Old 07-02-2014   #289
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
Exactly. He isn't going to be great or flashy. We are going to be a run based offense with limited explosive plays and we'll be trying to win the ugly way. Many teams have had successful teams doing that in the past and that looks like what we'll have to do until we find a real QB.

I can understand the lack of excitement for the offense due to the QB position, but it is what it is. I just don't understand this alarming need to see Keenum out there again this season after we watched him for like 8 or 9 games last year and saw what he had. I rooted for him big time and argued on behalf of him before he got his chance and in his first few games. But by the end of the season, he did not improve. He regressed actually and maybe he still has certain potential, but not the kind of potential that would lead him to ever be a full time starter that would be a top 10 type of guy every year. I think that people who are still clawing onto that idea for dear life are suffering really ferociously from homerism for the hometown kid.
Agreed!! It is what it is. I like Keenum too, but I've watched Keenum and I've watched Fitz. I've watched alot more Fitz because there's alot more NFL Fitz tape.....in my mind that gives him more opportunity to disappoint and from a perspective of consistency Fitz is better. Keenum throws an amazing long ball, but that's it....otherwise he largely makes a mess. Fitz won the job, I have no doubt. Now, if he goes out and throws 8 interceptions in the first 8 games, or worse.....he needs to take a seat!!
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Old 07-02-2014   #290
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by bayoudreamn View Post
Agreed!! It is what it is. I like Keenum too, but I've watched Keenum and I've watched Fitz. I've watched alot more Fitz because there's alot more NFL Fitz tape.....in my mind that gives him more opportunity to disappoint and from a perspective of consistency Fitz is better. Keenum throws an amazing long ball, but that's it....otherwise he largely makes a mess. Fitz won the job, I have no doubt. Now, if he goes out and throws 8 interceptions in the first 8 games, or worse.....he needs to take a seat!!
My max is 6 games then enter Savage
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Old 07-02-2014   #291
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Texec, you are saying that if it was Tom Savage or Manziel or Borttles or Andrew Luck who went thru what Keenum did last year with no running game, a very pourous oline, bad special teams and defense and incompetent coaching that their days would be limited and they don't deserve another chance to see if they can compete with a competent team around them.
I think he's basing his opinion on what he did see from Keenum, not what he dreamed about someone else.
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Old 07-02-2014   #292
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Default Re: Bill O'Brien names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
The misconception is that Keenum was terrible against the blitz.
No, he wasn't great, but he was better than many known names despite the blitz getting to him early. (Look at time to pressure when QBs face a blitz.)

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...and-the-blitz/

The frustration of a losing season, IMO, renders people way more critical than they should.

Read the whole series on QBs by PFF.
No matter how one slices it, Keenum's level of play last year was starter-equivalence.
Granted the middle of the third tier is nothing to write home about.
Thanks for some eye-opening stats. MSR coming your way.

Keenum's rating when against pressure bests Brady, Romo, E. Manning, Palmer, Schaub, RG III and Flaco. And the ratings of the 2 directly above him are Brees and Rothliesberger.....................dang, he's in terrible terrible company.
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Old 07-02-2014   #293
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Default Re: Bill O'Brien names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Nobody said he gets a complete mulligan but, you have to factor in the terrible team and coaching around him. If you don't, then you just have an anti-Keenum agenda. Further, if he's so terrible with no future in the league, why does Bill O'Brien still have him on the team?
Because he's giving him the chance you are fighting so hard for, and I'm fine with that....but he hasn't won the job.....so he better get busy. If he doesn't win it, you'll need to start arguing for his backup job next.
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Old 07-02-2014   #294
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Default Re: Bill O'Brien names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
The notion that Keenum held on to the ball too long when blitzed and/or pressured is also unfounded.

Look at the time to pressure in blitzes and/or pressure.
The average time defenders got to him was in the top five.
Despite that, his QBR and his PFF grades are still better than quite a fair number of other QBs.
To this comment, I'll say....go to the tape. Keenum holds the ball longer than Fitz, and one of the arguments against Fitz is that he needs to go through his reads faster....

I watched 18 games or so....Fitz is fast. I wasn't impressed with his supporting cast. I heard the announces say the "knock against him is that he needs to go through his reads faster" and saw why they said that because even though he got the ball out fast, he didn't always throw it to the right receiver. He'd throw it into traffic which had about the results you would expect given the risk of those throws while he had an open receiver that would have provided a significantly lower risk. Brady and Manning are given the respect they get because they find that receiver. This is what Bill has to fix.
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Old 07-02-2014   #295
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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My max is 6 games then enter Savage
I hope we don't have to do that. I'd really like for them to have time to really develop Savage....otherwise we may very well be looking for a QB next year and starting again.
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Old 07-02-2014   #296
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Default Re: Bill O'Brien names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Thanks for some eye-opening stats. MSR coming your way.

Keenum's rating when against pressure bests Brady, Romo, E. Manning, Palmer, Schaub, RG III and Flaco. And the ratings of the 2 directly above him are Brees and Rothliesberger.....................dang, he's in terrible terrible company.
He was good his first 3 or 4 games! I wonder if those blitzes started increasing more the further he went? I wonder what it was like in the lockerroom when Kubes has his stroke? When he got fired? When Wade took over? Are his stats any good at all?? What did you see? What does he need to fix? Right now, do you surmise based on what we know that he is the top performing QB in camp??

That's what we need to see, if B'OB says he's won the starting job, I'm ok with it. I just don't want him to get the job based on "upside?".....he's not a rookie. Regardless of circumstances, he got a chance and his performance was declining......he's got to do better than that. They lost the last game by 22.
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Old 07-02-2014   #297
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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My max is 6 games then enter Savage
If either Savage or Keenum don't have what it takes to beat out Da Fitz, then we truly are in for a long season.
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Old 07-02-2014   #298
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Default Re: Bill O'Brien names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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To this comment, I'll say....go to the tape. Keenum holds the ball longer than Fitz, and one of the arguments against Fitz is that he needs to go through his reads faster....

I watched 18 games or so....Fitz is fast. I wasn't impressed with his supporting cast. I heard the announces say the "knock against him is that he needs to go through his reads faster" and saw why they said that because even though he got the ball out fast, he didn't always throw it to the right receiver. He'd throw it into traffic which had about the results you would expect given the risk of those throws while he had an open receiver that would have provided a significantly lower risk. Brady and Manning are given the respect they get because they find that receiver. This is what Bill has to fix.
Oh, you're not getting that comment from me.
In fact, what I said is that Fitz had the 4-yr experience of playing in a system in Buffalo plus the one he played in last year with the Titans where the job of the QB is to get the ball out quickly to the playmakers.

I'm sure that's the reason OB brought him in.
The only beef I have with Fitz are the turnovers, especially for a veteran.
I watched all the games he played in last year and in 2012.

Besides the turnovers recorded on paper, last year, he averaged nearly 2 passes that he threw right to a defender (that were dropped), and he averaged at least one of those in 2012.

A couple of years ago, I mentioned that with the Texans running game and the high octane defense they had, Schaub just need to limit the turnover number to about 1.5 a game for the Texans to have a good chance to win a game.

The Texans might get back to those levels this year due to the easier schedule.
Maybe Fitz can hold his own; maybe not.

However, when we talk about the scheme.
A screen pass to a receiver, a TE, or a RB takes little time to deliver.

A play action pass where the QB is required to perform a ball fake to the RB takes longer.
A play action roll out takes even longer.

There are more things to consider like the depth of the route a receiver run (the number of steps a QB is required to drop back); Whether the QB was trying to buy some time by scrambling looking for an open receiver; can the first read get enough separarion quickly or does the QB has to go to the second read; does the protection breaks down quickly such that the QB needs to move around to avoid the rush before he can either attempt a pass or just to throw the ball away, etc.

They all play a factor in how fast a QB gets the ball out.

So Fitz was helped in those regards more so than Keenum.
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Old 07-02-2014   #299
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Default Re: Bill O'Brien names QB Fitzpatrick starter

2013

Keenum Yards 1760......Fitz 2454......Brady 4343.

Fitz: PassYPC: 7.0....RYPC 5.2 (4.8 for his career)...Sack yards-932/9.3 per year (11.2289/game)....INTs 12/ 93 career (9.3/yr)(1.13/game)
Keenum: YPC: 7.0...RYPC 5.1.....sack yards 201/ 100.5 per year (25/game)...INTs 6/3 per year(.75/game)....even though he only played 8 games, which is 1/2 of a year.
Brady: YPC:6.9...RYPC .6 (1.8 for his career)....sack yards-2,150/153.57 per year (11.256/game)...INTs 11/ 134 career (.69 per game). Just for clarification, Brady pretty much never runs with the ball except QB sneaks from the 1 yd line)

Keenum won 2013 in one category, INTs, on a small sample......how comfortable are we that if he played 11 games or 16 games he would have still won that category?? He threw zero his first 3 games, all 6 were in the last 5

Case Keenum: Scoring: 9 pass, 1 rush, 1 TD....pts. 6 (6 per year)....1 year/8 games
R Fitzpatrick: Scoring: 106 pass, 9 rush, 9 TD....pts. 56 (5.6 per year)....10 years/83 games
T Brady: Scoring: 359 pass, 14 rush, 14 TD....pts. 84 (6.0 per year)....14 years/191 games

Brady throws 0.06 INTs less than Keenum who throws .38 less than Fitz. He does need to fix those!!

Career Fumbles: Brady 24 (.12565/game), Fitzpatrick 17 (.2048), Keenum 2 (.25).
This works out that brady fumbles once every 10 games, Fitz every 5, and Keenum every 4.

Which is ok with us, Fitz 2 INTs per year more or Keenums 81 sack yards more per year and 1 extra fumble??
Fitz also had a 3 consecutive game stretch of zero INTs in 2013 and 2008.

Stats are from NFL.com
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Last edited by bayoudreamn; 07-03-2014 at 01:18 AM.
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Old 07-03-2014   #300
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Default Re: Bill names QB Fitzpatrick starter

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Originally Posted by bayoudreamn View Post
I hope we don't have to do that. I'd really like for them to have time to really develop Savage....otherwise we may very well be looking for a QB next year and starting again.
In this age of the NFL you plan your game plan around the strengths of your young QB. See the Niners with Kap and Seahawks with Wilson.
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