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Old 06-02-2014   #81
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Originally Posted by Insideop View Post
Take Luck away from the Colts and put Schaub/Keenum in there and they would be 2-14. Put Luck on the Texans last season and we may have won 12 or more games. Agree?
No.
You're still missing eight, count 'em, EIGHT TDs.
Give me those eight TDs and let me put them where they'd have the most favorable impact and we win 7-8 more games. Now we're 9-7 or 10-6.

Of course some of you won't like that outcome because it means Kubiak, Wade, Schaub, et. al. are likely still here and we don't get the 1-1 pick.
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Old 06-02-2014   #82
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
No.
You're still missing eight, count 'em, EIGHT TDs.
Give me those eight TDs and let me put them where they'd have the most favorable impact and we win 7-8 more games. Now we're 9-7 or 10-6.

Of course some of you won't like that outcome because it means Kubiak, Wade, Schaub, et. al. are likely still here and we don't get the 1-1 pick.
Yeah that would really help considering how many games we lost by 3-7 points.
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Old 06-02-2014   #83
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

Ya, there was a definite lack of playmaking/playmakers last year. With Kube's let's-just-keep-it-close tactics late in the game, I kept waiting for someone (anyone) to step up and make a play.

But there was no tipped pass that led to an INT. No crushing sack that reversed field position. No fumble recoveries or INT's when it was really needed. A lot of people like to point to the QB and say, "YOU make the play". Unfortunately, Schaub was the anti-playmaker. Keenum, eh....

Seems like guys like Flacco get help when they need it. Not so for the Texan QB's last year....
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Old 06-02-2014   #84
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Ya, there was a definite lack of playmaking/playmakers last year. With Kube's let's-just-keep-it-close tactics late in the game, I kept waiting for someone (anyone) to step up and make a play.

But there was no tipped pass that led to an INT. No crushing sack that reversed field position. No fumble recoveries or INT's when it was really needed. A lot of people like to point to the QB and say, "YOU make the play". Unfortunately, Schaub was the anti-playmaker. Keenum, eh....

Seems like guys like Flacco get help when they need it. Not so for the Texan QB's last year....
Fewest turnovers forced since the NFL/AFL merger (11).

Combine that with allowing the 2nd most points off of turnovers in the NFL.

No , the QB's didn't get any help , and Schaub sure didn't help himself with that string of pick 6's. Keenum didn't shoot himself in the foot to the extent Schaub did (hell , Schaub chewed his leg off) but he did have his share of negative plays.

I wouldn't object to Keenum getting another chance to prove himself , pending he beats out Yates , Fitzpatrick & Savage .... But to earn that job , he's got to show he drastically improved in the mental aspect of the game. He can sling it around .... but can he do the little things ?! That's yet to be seen.
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Old 06-02-2014   #85
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

I think they have to go with 3 QB's this year.... Should Fitz (and I'm assuming it's his job to lose) have an injury, having just a rookie for backup could be dicey. And then they'd have to scramble to bring in someone else..

I'm for whoever OB wants to go with.... At this point in time, it seems he knows what he wants out of a QB....
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Old 06-02-2014   #86
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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So it's going to be like that then is it. Ok well then in 2009 Schaub had a running game for his last two wins. That means Matt Schaub was a .500 QB in 2009 and did not win more than he lost in the scenario as discussed (without a RB and/or without protection from his OL).

Happy? Your example is now 7-7 without a RB and/or protection. Impressive.

I gave two examples (Manning and Marino) of QB's who won consistently without having either of those two things in place on a regular basis. The fact remains that there are not "plenty of examples" of QB's being successful for long careers while playing in a talent vacuum.

Nobody said anything about not having a defense. Plenty of QB's have won without a defense. At least until the playoffs came around.
Don't get mad at me Herv because you did not pose your question properly. Now you are tacking on additional things so that things fit your narrative, and I don't think that's right. But some will go to great lengths to keep from giving Schaub credit for anything.
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Old 06-02-2014   #87
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Don't get mad at me Herv because you did not pose your question properly. Now you are tacking on additional things so that things fit your narrative, and I don't think that's right. But some will go to great lengths to keep from giving Schaub credit for anything.
What makes you think I'm mad? I've said it before and I'll say it again here. I'm smiling almost the entire time I'm on this site and this thread is no different.

I haven't tacked anything on. I don't have any idea where you are getting that. In the original post I made that you responded to I stated the following

Quote:
Originally Posted by Me
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that most QB's need an OL and/or a RB to really be successful. I want to see the guy with no protection or running game who wins more than he loses. That's guy's going to be spectacular. I'm not saying he doesn't exist but Peyton Manning and Dan Marino don't come around very often and even then they don't win it all without some help.

This year he either seizes the opportunity and takes the starting spot on his own, then runs with it or we gotta keep turning over rocks until we find the guy who does.
Note that I said "Most QB's" and that I stated that they needed an OL and/or a RB to really be successful. Admittedly just saying "really be successful" is a vague measure of success. If that's where our mix up is then OK. To clarify I said "really be successful" and by that I meant "Have consistent success without the presence of either of those resources being available (a serviceable RB and OL).

Forget completely about the soft schedule I mentioned. It's still there but disregard it and look at Matt Schaub's 2009 season. 7-7 when he didn't have a decent RB behind him. That's pretty much the argument in a nutshell but if we're going to be sticklers for what I originally said then how was his pass protection that year? 25 sacks he took that year. Now, we all know and I think can agree that sacks are not solely a function of the OL's ability to pass protect. Fair enough?

Matt didn't play 16 games too often over the course of his career here but during the time he was here he was never sacked fewer times in 16 games than he was in 2009. That year he got some of the best protection he'd ever had. What does that mean?

Well, it means that he's not a candidate for this answer no matter how you look at it. My original statement (again, in case you didn't see it or didn't understand it the first few times)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Me
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that most QB's need an OL and/or a RB to really be successful. I want to see the guy with no protection or running game who wins more than he loses. That's guy's going to be spectacular. I'm not saying he doesn't exist but Peyton Manning and Dan Marino don't come around very often and even then they don't win it all without some help.

This year he either seizes the opportunity and takes the starting spot on his own, then runs with it or we gotta keep turning over rocks until we find the guy who does.
Note the two areas I made bold. You have not shown me any evidence that the first one is incorrect. Most QB's do need an OL and/or a RB to really be successful. Also I have shown you in as much detail as I can manage that Matt Schaub had good OL play in 2009 for 16 weeks and an outstanding RB's behind him for 2 of his wins. He didn't overcome bad line play to win games in 2009. He didn't win more games than he lost without a good running game.

You're wrong. He's a bad example to use in this instance and nothing will change that. It isn't about Matt Schaub not being given the credit he's due. He played well in 2009. He threw 29 TD's to only 15 picks and kept us in games. He didn't however do that while trying to overcome a lousy OL or without any help from his running game.
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Old 06-02-2014   #88
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Insideop View Post
Take Luck away from the Colts and put Schaub/Keenum in there and they would be 2-14. Put Luck on the Texans last season and we may have won 12 or more games. Agree?
No i dont think so, the texans had so many more problems than just QB last season. From Foster and tate both getting hurt, to the defense not helping them at all. If we had luck i still see us only winning 5-6 games at most.
The Colts aren't perfect. If you were a Colts fan, you'd be able to pick at every weakness on their roster.

If Schaub played to his career averages last season, we win 10-12 games.
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Old 06-02-2014   #89
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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I wonder how long this honeymoon with O'Brien lasts. My bet is on the middle of next season - Unless they all the sudden find a winner at QB , then it'll be a bit longer.
The honeymoon will continue to roll until his good decisions outnumber his bad decisions.

So far, there may have been a few questionable moves... cutting OD, passing on Bridgewater, firing coach Joe. But he's made some strong moves in the other direction as well, getting a draft pick for Schaub, drafting big guys, landing RAC.

Bringing in kicking "competition"

As long as his good decisions keep pace with, or outpace his bad decisions, everything's good.
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Old 06-02-2014   #90
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
The honeymoon will continue to roll until his good decisions outnumber his bad decisions.

So far, there may have been a few questionable moves... cutting OD, passing on Bridgewater, firing coach Joe. But he's made some strong moves in the other direction as well, getting a draft pick for Schaub, drafting big guys, landing RAC.

Bringing in kicking "competition"

As long as his good decisions keep pace with, or outpace his bad decisions, everything's good.
Don't see firing coach Joe as a questionable move but okkkk.....
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Old 06-02-2014   #91
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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The honeymoon will continue to roll until his good decisions outnumber his bad decisions.

So far, there may have been a few questionable moves... cutting OD, passing on Bridgewater, firing coach Joe. But he's made some strong moves in the other direction as well, getting a draft pick for Schaub, drafting big guys, landing RAC.

Bringing in kicking "competition"

As long as his good decisions keep pace with, or outpace his bad decisions, everything's good.
Ultimately the talent on the field will determine how long it lasts as soon as the progress stalls , we'll be breaking out the pink soap for him too.

Giving him credit / blame for some of those moves is a bit much - He's the coach , not the GM.
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Old 06-02-2014   #92
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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So far, there may have been a few questionable moves... cutting OD, passing on Bridgewater, firing coach Joe.
Coach Joe was fired before Bill O'Brien joined the Texans.
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Old 06-02-2014   #93
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Coach Joe was fired before Bill O'Brien joined the Texans.
And some would argue should have been fired before Kubiak joined the Texans.
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Old 06-02-2014   #94
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post
The Colts 1743 rush yards and 15 TDs they averaged 108 yards per game
The Texans 1743 rush yards and 7 TDs we averaged 108 yards per game

The Colts were sacked 32 times

The Texans were sacked 42 times

So really Luck had the advantage as far as stats go.
Luck doesn't have much of an advantage. Luck IS the advantage.

He rushed 63 times for 377 yards (20% of their total) and 4 of those TDs. Keenum/Schaub had just south of 100. I have to imagine he had so many rushes because the OL sucks. If he wasn't mobile, he would have been sacked a lot more often. Bad running game, bad OL, run of the mill defense, etc. Imagine what the kid could do with a solid OL and a running game from the actual RB position. It pains me to think about it.
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Old 06-02-2014   #95
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

Not sure why a 2-14 team having below average production from the QB position, the OL, and the running game (ALL of them) is a difficult analytical conclusion.
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Old 06-03-2014   #96
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Not sure why a 2-14 team having below average production from the QB position, the OL, and the running game (ALL of them) is a difficult analytical conclusion.
Analyze the statistics under a microscope not knowing the record and those stats appear to be of a much better team - Its only when you factor in the mistakes that their record comes into focus.

#7 total defense

#3 passing defense

#23 rushing defense


#11 total offense

#15 passing offense

#20 Rushing offense

#6 Time of possession.


Now for the ugly truth.


#23 in Penalties committed

#32 in turnover +/-

#17 in sacks allowed

#30 in Int's allowed

#31 in points allowed off of turnovers.

#32 in turnovers forced and set an NFL record for futility in the process.

When they executed they were much better than their record shows but far too often they failed to "execute".
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Old 06-03-2014   #97
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
Analyze the statistics under a microscope not knowing the record and those stats appear to be of a much better team - Its only when you factor in the mistakes that their record comes into focus.

#7 total defense

#3 passing defense

#23 rushing defense


#11 total offense

#15 passing offense

#20 Rushing offense

#6 Time of possession.


Now for the ugly truth.


#23 in Penalties committed

#32 in turnover +/-

#17 in sacks allowed

#30 in Int's allowed

#31 in points allowed off of turnovers.

#32 in turnovers forced and set an NFL record for futility in the process.

When they executed they were much better than their record shows but far too often they failed to "execute".
Very interesting breakdown. Thanks! MSR.
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Old 06-03-2014   #98
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Luck doesn't have much of an advantage. Luck IS the advantage.

He rushed 63 times for 377 yards (20% of their total) and 4 of those TDs. Keenum/Schaub had just south of 100. I have to imagine he had so many rushes because the OL sucks. If he wasn't mobile, he would have been sacked a lot more often. Bad running game, bad OL, run of the mill defense, etc. Imagine what the kid could do with a solid OL and a running game from the actual RB position. It pains me to think about it.
Someone said the colts had worse protection and a worse running game, that was all to prove they did not. And luck although has been good he has not been great. I personally never got caught up in all the hype, and even now when i see him play i am not in awwwww over it.
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Old 06-03-2014   #99
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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... I haven't tacked anything on. I don't have any idea where you are getting that....
What you said was:

Quote:
I want to see the guy with no protection or running game who wins more than he loses.
So I replied to see the 2009 Schaub. You then followed up with:

Quote:
2009 ...Matt Schaub of the 9-7, barely-won-more-than-they-lost 2009 Houston Texans?
So now it went from "won more than he lost" to "he barely won more than he lost"

You went on to say:

Quote:
Did you look at who they beat? Aside from a disinterested New England team with jack **** to play for they beat one team with a winning record.
So now you are adding who they beat as part of the scenario, even though that was not mentioned in your original question. Now your question has become 'I want to see the guy with no protection or running game who wins more than he loses, and the teams he beat must have winning records' So yes, IMO, that is moving the goal post, or tacking things on.

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
... look at Matt Schaub's 2009 season. 7-7 when he didn't have a decent RB behind him. That's pretty much the argument in a nutshell but if we're going to be sticklers for what I originally said then how was his pass protection that year? 25 sacks he took that year. Now, we all know and I think can agree that sacks are not solely a function of the OL's ability to pass protect. Fair enough?
There were only 25 sacks because Schaub got rid of the ball quick or threw it away instead of taking a sack. He was very proficient at this in 2009. Let's not forget who the starting guards were in 2009. LG: Kasey Studdard (7521st overall since 1950) & RG: Chris White (Center playing out of position) (7979th overall since 1950) Duane Brown (Although improved from his rookie season) struggled with pass protection in 2009. Brown allowed 7 sacks, 11 hits and 35 hurries as well as giving up eight penalties. The Texans OL was ranked 13th overall that year. (Run Rank 21st, Pass Rank 16th, Penalties Rank 7th) So I disagree with your assertion that the Texans had a good OL in 2009 let alone the best Schaub had seen.

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
Matt didn't play 16 games too often over the course of his career here but during the time he was here he was never sacked fewer times in 16 games than he was in 2009. That year he got some of the best protection he'd ever had. What does that mean?

Well, it means that he's not a candidate for this answer no matter how you look at it.

...You have not shown me any evidence that the first one is incorrect. Most QB's do need an OL and/or a RB to really be successful. Also I have shown you in as much detail as I can manage that Matt Schaub had good OL play in 2009 for 16 weeks and an outstanding RB's behind him for 2 of his wins. He didn't overcome bad line play to win games in 2009. He didn't win more games than he lost without a good running game.
The Texans OL was ranked 2nd overall in 2010 (Run Rank 3rd, Pass Rank 4th, Penalties Rank 4th) but gave up 32 sacks that season, so where does this leave your theory about 2009 being the best OL Schaub had ever seen?

And while Schaub's season was shortened by injury in 2011 to just 10 games, the Texans OL was ranked 5th overall (Run Rank 6th, Pass Rank 4th, Penalties Rank 21st) and only gave up 16 sacks which means the 2010 and 2011 OL were leaps and bounds better than the 2009 OL. Heck even the 2012 OL was better than the 2009 OL.

In regard to your claims about RB's. The Texans finished 30th in rushing in 2009. Yet you want to cherry pick two games out where you say Schaub had "outstanding RB's behind him for 2 of his wins." but you fail to backup your claims or even consider who those two teams were and what their D was ranked against the run, but earlier you wanted to discount the wins based on their win/loss record.

MIA: 18th against the run (114.7 ypg) Foster gained 97 yds (-17.7)
NE: 13th against the run (110.5 ypg) Foster gained 119 yds (+8.5)

And as you pointed out, "a disinterested New England team with jack **** to play for" only allowed Foster 8.5 more yards than the teams average. So why are you now claiming Fosters 119 yards is something to brag about? You can't make up your mind. Foster did not even gain the Dolphins average yards allowed for that season.

The fact is Foster had decent games because Schaub lead the league in passing and teams were playing the pass, and had no idea who the UDFA Arian Foster would become in 2010, so they were in nickle and dime most of the time to stop Schaub and you know it.

Will that evidence suffice?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
You're wrong... ...He didn't however do that while trying to overcome a lousy OL or without any help from his running game.
Instead of just asserting it like you did, I think I have gone out of my way to prove you are wrong. Schaub did in fact win more games than he lost with no OL, no running game, and no defense to boot. All the while out pacing guys players like Brady, Manning and Brees.
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Old 06-03-2014   #100
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Default Re: Arian foster Gives Case Keenum a real chance.

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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post
Someone said the colts had worse protection and a worse running game, that was all to prove they did not. And luck although has been good he has not been great. I personally never got caught up in all the hype, and even now when i see him play i am not in awwwww over it.
I never said the Colts had worse protection and worse running game than the Texans. I was responding to Herv's post about wanting to "see the guy with no protection and no running game who wins more than he loses!" I basically said that guy was Luck. Then in another post I said that if you put Schaub/Keenum on the Colts and gave the Texans Luck, the Colts would've been 2-14 and we might have won 12 games. I still stand by that, though there is no way to ever prove it. You can throw out all the stats you want about who had the better protection and run game, but the bottom line is that Luck would have made the Texans a better team last year. And I believe he could have taken them, and probably any team he played on, to the playoffs. Yes, I believe he's that good!

If you don't think Luck is that good, agree to disagree. But here's some stats to chew on comparing Luck and Manning in their first 2 years in the NFL.

Luck..8,196 yds...46 tds...27 ints...73 sacks...632 rush yds...9 tds..81.5 QBR

Manning..7,874 yds..52 tds..43 ints..36 sacks..135 rush yds..2 tds..80.95 QBR

A lot can happen between now and when Luck retires, but baring injury, I think Luck will be considered one of the greats when it's all said and done. Unfortunately for the Texans, they have to deal with him 2 times a year from now on until he leaves the Colts.
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