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Old 05-30-2014   #1
IlliniJen
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Default Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

From Grantland:

Quote:
First, the Texans are primed for an immediate comeback toward the middle of the NFL pack, even if the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Savage they’ll run out at quarterback might preclude them from being a playoff contender. Virtually every metric I can find suggests they were an underrated and unlucky team last year, and that’s without considering how they repeatedly juggled quarterbacks and quit on their coach. With even average luck next year, Houston should be a 7-9 or 8-8 team. And if it has a few bounces break its way — picture Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt wishboning Andrew Luck — the Texans could very well be next year’s surprise playoff team.
http://grantland.com/features/nfl-st...cting-success/

He has some good things to say about our chances next season, and some other stat assessment for various teams.
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Old 05-30-2014   #2
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

Thanks for posting

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Old 05-30-2014   #3
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

Actually more to unpack than I originally thought but really the key stats from last year were the overall negative turnover rate and the lack of turnovers the defense generated. the team could fix a lot of the first issue by just doing better in getting the ball away from other teams.
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Old 05-30-2014   #4
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

Quote:
Originally Posted by IlliniJen View Post
From Grantland:



http://grantland.com/features/nfl-st...cting-success/

He has some good things to say about our chances next season, and some other stat assessment for various teams.
At the risk of sidetracking this discussion, there's a link on that page that completely steals the show. Arian Foster goes after cat people and wants to free the cats. Best thing I've read all week.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ar...free-the-cats/
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Old 05-30-2014   #5
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

Great article! Thanks for posting.

I know a lot of outsiders are saying the Texans are primed for a "Chiefs like rebound," or, like this article suggests, a 7-9 or 8-8 season, but I believe a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

The first thing is, minimal injuries and no injuries to key players (Cushing anyone?). This team just doesn't have the depth anymore after 3 years of losses in FA and mediocre drafts. I don't think they could sustain a rash of injuries and win more than 5 games.

Secondly, the Rookies and FA pickups, especially the starters, will have to play lights out. The way it looks now there will probably be anywhere from 3 to 6 Rookie starters when this team starts the regular season (Clowney, Su'a-Filo, Nix, Fiedorowicz, Savage, and Prosch). I don't expect Savage or Prosch to start, but you never know what can happen.

Third, the ball has to bounce their way. Like the article stated, the Texans were one of the unluckiest teams last year, and after watching those games I can certainly attest to that fact! They can't have that kind of year again and win more than a handful of games.

So, here's to a healthy/great playing/lucky year for the Texans and a return to the playoffs!
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Old 05-30-2014   #6
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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Originally Posted by Insideop View Post
Great article! Thanks for posting.

I know a lot of outsiders are saying the Texans are primed for a "Chiefs like rebound," or, like this article suggests, a 7-9 or 8-8 season, but I believe a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

The first thing is, minimal injuries and no injuries to key players (Cushing anyone?). This team just doesn't have the depth anymore after 3 years of losses in FA and mediocre drafts. I don't think they could sustain a rash of injuries and win more than 5 games.

Secondly, the Rookies and FA pickups, especially the starters, will have to play lights out. The way it looks now there will probably be anywhere from 3 to 6 Rookie starters when this team starts the regular season (Clowney, Su'a-Filo, Nix, Fiedorowicz, Savage, and Prosch). I don't expect Savage or Prosch to start, but you never know what can happen.

Third, the ball has to bounce their way. Like the article stated, the Texans were one of the unluckiest teams last year, and after watching those games I can certainly attest to that fact! They can't have that kind of year again and win more than a handful of games.

So, here's to a healthy/great playing/lucky year for the Texans and a return to the playoffs!
I am optimistic that Sua'fila and Nix will better as rookies as should Clowney. We should have better QB, both lines and LBs. Fiedo could be better and Prosch should also and I think we will see more plays with a FB leading.
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Old 05-30-2014   #7
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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barnwell is the most boring writer in grantland.

i tried reading his articles but the words were too big

no thanks.
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Old 05-30-2014   #8
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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If you're gonna talk trash to me, at least allow me the same courtesy without fear of reprimand along with your perpetual and ubiquitous neg reps.

i dont have a problem with anybody talking trash to me. just allow to talk back without consequence. it seems everybody does it to me but as soon as i talk back im reprimanded.
Your neg reps have mainly come from refusing to follow forum rules repeatedly.

You have not been reprimanded for talking back so long as you stay within the rules. Making crap up isn't going to help your case.

Stop behaving like a 2 year old having a temper tantrum in your romper room and you'll be fine.
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Old 05-30-2014   #9
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

Kinda surprised the Bears topped us in defensive points allowed. That was a tall order in 2013.
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Old 05-30-2014   #10
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
Actually more to unpack than I originally thought but really the key stats from last year were the overall negative turnover rate and the lack of turnovers the defense generated. the team could fix a lot of the first issue by just doing better in getting the ball away from other teams.
And mixing coverages instead of playing man coverage very play will certainly help the secondary with those turnover opportunities. As predictable as the Kubiak offense could be, it was Wade's defense that was insufferably predictable.
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Old 05-30-2014   #11
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

Record in One-Touchdown Games
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Our poor friends in Houston head this list, too. Remember: The Texans had second-half leads on the Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts, and Patriots last year. They blew them all, of course, but that they were able to stay competitive with teams of that caliber is a good omen for their future performance. Maybe things are better with a healthy Arian Foster running out the clock instead of trolling cat owners. We’ll see. Atlanta, Detroit, and Pittsburgh are all teams without effective running games that struggled to finish deep into the fourth quarter, too.
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Old 05-30-2014   #12
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

Only reason this team may reach .500 or more is the soft schedule. Match them up against upper echelon squads and they will get stomped out.

Still a year or two away. Or better stated still a QB away from being a legitimate threat.
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Old 05-30-2014   #13
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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Kinda surprised the Bears topped us in defensive points allowed. That was a tall order in 2013.
I don't like the way they worded that.

defensive points allowed would be how many points our defense gave up right?

The stat grantland is saying they were worse than we were, was TO Points allowed. Which I think describes the stat better. Points on turnovers, or something like that.
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Old 05-30-2014   #14
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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Originally Posted by Uncle Rico View Post
Only reason this team may reach .500 or more is the soft schedule. Match them up against upper echelon squads and they will get stomped out.
This indicates otherwise:

Quote:
The Texans had second-half leads on the Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts, and Patriots last year. They blew them all, of course, but that they were able to stay competitive with teams of that caliber is a good omen for their future performance.
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Old 05-30-2014   #15
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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This indicates otherwise:
So what happened last year will directly influence this upcoming year? Cool, I'll anxiously wait for more blown leads.

New coach. New QB(s) . New system. Same results.

Question marks surrounding: OL, secondary, RB, WR, etc... etc...

Like I said they will take advantage of a soft schedule, but a crap sandwich is still not very appetizing, even for someone who is starving.

"If you have 2-3 QBs, then you don't have 1"

And as much as the defense MIGHT improve I don't see the 01 Ravens that will win games 10-9.

1 or 2 more drafts.
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Old 05-30-2014   #16
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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Only reason this team may reach .500 or more is the soft schedule. Match them up against upper echelon squads and they will get stomped out.
Matters not to me. I'll take a .500 season over a losing season any way I can get it.

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Still a year or two away. Or better stated still a QB away from being a legitimate threat.
Good thing we have a soft schedule in 2014.
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Old 05-31-2014   #17
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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Matters not to me. I'll take a .500 season over a losing season any way I can get it.
Don't let some of the draftniks hear you, they'd rather have sucky season and have the #1 pick than finish at .500.

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Old 05-31-2014   #18
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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Don't let some of the draftniks hear you, they'd rather have sucky season and have the #1 pick than finish at .500.

& those same guys will be griping about not being able to beat Cleveland, Buffalo, & Jacksonville.
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Old 06-01-2014   #19
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

You can call me a kook-aid drinker if you want but I think we will have a strong season next year, as long as we get decent QB play. Our D should be much better, our OL should be better, and our RB play should be better. I think last year was a perfect storm of *******! I feel like everything that could have went wrong did go wrong. Law of averages dictates we should have better luck this year.
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Old 06-01-2014   #20
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Default Re: Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

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Matters not to me. I'll take a .500 season over a losing season any way I can get it.



Good thing we have a soft schedule in 2014.

Sure, and the irony would be that the difference between say ... Marcus Mariota and Ryan Fitzpatrick would be that same soft schedule. I'd take a losing season or two over a decade of mediocrity.
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