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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #1
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Default Quarterback Drafting Strategies and the Texans

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Originally Posted by DX-TEX View Post
if you compare units between the Texans and Colts the Texans have better units every where except at QB.
If true the Texans need to quit jerking around with the quarterback position and fix it. If the Texans truly aren't drafting QBs because they aren't the perfect fit for the system*, they need to get over it. There are quarterbacks available in every draft that aren't elite, but are better than the mediocre game managers this organization uses. For instance, I'd like to see them use a first round draft pick to get a non-elite, non-mediocre, non-bust Roethlisberger type then wait around for the stars to align until the team can draft a "guaranteed" elite quarterback like Manning. Continuing to bet on mediocrity and hope isn't going to cut it in the future any more than it has in the past. This is a quarterback's league. A corporate twiddling of thumbs with Joe Average at QB isn't the path to greatness.


*I am also open to the fact that this is a theory promulgated by fans and isn't the Texans plan.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #2
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

Hey, man, we've got our potentially great QB that is perfect for O'Brien's system. Unfortunately, he's got a jacked up pec at the moment.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #3
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Hey, man, we've got our potentially great QB that is perfect for O'Brien's system. Unfortunately, he's got a jacked up pec at the moment.
Mallett might be that guy that raises the bar for Texans QBs; he showed some promise. If not, the team is behind yet another two years (this year and next year) if they don't pull the trigger and invest in a QB with a first round draft pick.

Yes, I know that first round quarterbacks aren't guaranteed to succeed. However, I doubt one could have less impact than our most recent can't miss, no-brainer first round draft pick.

Screw waiting for perfection. Better is the enemy of good enough.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #4
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Hey, man, we've got our potentially great QB that is perfect for O'Brien's system. Unfortunately, he's got a jacked up pec at the moment.
Story of the Texans. The only time Luck will be out for the year will be 15 years from now when another Luck/Manning type QB is coming out of college and the Colts get the first pick again. I hate it.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #5
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Story of the Texans. The only time Luck will be out for the year will be 15 years from now when another Luck/Manning type QB is coming out of college and the Colts get the first pick again. I hate it.
The Texans have the most ping balls in that lottery. They get the first pick about 25% of the time.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #6
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Originally Posted by Runner View Post
If true the Texans need to quit jerking around with the quarterback position and fix it. If the Texans truly aren't drafting QBs because they aren't the perfect fit for the system*, they need to get over it. There are quarterbacks available in every draft that aren't elite, but are better than the mediocre game managers this organization uses. For instance, I'd like to see them use a first round draft pick to get a non-elite, non-mediocre, non-bust Roethlisberger type then wait around for the stars to align until the team can draft a "guaranteed" elite quarterback like Manning. Continuing to bet on mediocrity and hope isn't going to cut it in the future any more than it has in the past. This is a quarterback's league. A corporate twiddling of thumbs with Joe Average at QB isn't the path to greatness.


*I am also open to the fact that this is a theory promulgated by fans and isn't the Texans plan.

That's fine. But what separates Roethlisberger, or even Matt Ryan apart from Tom Savage? Or Zach Mettenberger?

I never would have looked at Aaron Rodgers & figured his performance in the NFL would have been that much better than Alex Smith's, or Matthew Stafford's who I thought was a better prospect coming out of college (different years, I'm aware).

What I hope, is that we have a competent staff that can get the most out of a Matt Schaub... If that guy has what it takes to be Tom Brady or Bret Favre, so be it. But I don't think we should waste time like Jacksonville, Buffalo, & Oakland have trying to make sure they have that guy first, then building a team around him.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #7
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Originally Posted by Vance87 View Post
Story of the Texans. The only time Luck will be out for the year will be 15 years from now when another Luck/Manning type QB is coming out of college and the Colts get the first pick again. I hate it.
Yep. It doesn't seem fair that one organization has had 2 (Unitas and Manning), and probably 3 (with Luck), of the greatest QB's to ever play the game! Maybe there's something to that horseshoe on the side of their helmets!
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #8
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
That's fine. But what separates Roethlisberger, or even Matt Ryan apart from Tom Savage? Or Zach Mettenberger?

I never would have looked at Aaron Rodgers & figured his performance in the NFL would have been that much better than Alex Smith's, or Matthew Stafford's who I thought was a better prospect coming out of college (different years, I'm aware).

What I hope, is that we have a competent staff that can get the most out of a Matt Schaub... If that guy has what it takes to be Tom Brady or Bret Favre, so be it. But I don't think we should waste time like Jacksonville, Buffalo, & Oakland have trying to make sure they have that guy first, then building a team around him.
Using the Bill O'Brien methodology as a metaphor, I'd use a first round pick on a guy with 8 of his 10 requirements rather than use a fourth round pick with 5 of the attributes if a guy with all 10 isn't there.

Note that this is a metaphor. I know someone can claim "but what if Savage has 8 of 10 yada yada yada". For the purpose of this metaphor, I am assuming O'Brien's 10 points are accurate in determining a QBs worth and if Savage had an 8/10, he'd have been a first round choice.

=====================================

In simpler terms:

Teams rate QB's. The rare ones are rated 1/1. Some are rated mid first rounders. Others are rated fourth round talent. Basically, some are rated at every level of the spectrum.

All I'm saying is don't ignore QB because that 1/1 talent isn't there. Take the guy you rate as a top 10 or 15 draft pick. He's better than what you have.

In all this, the evaluation still might be wrong, but that holds true for every position. Try to fix the problem; don't keep waiting until next year for that perfect 1/1.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #9
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Originally Posted by Runner View Post
Using the Bill O'Brien methodology as a metaphor, I'd use a first round pick on a guy with 8 of his 10 requirements rather than use a fourth round pick with 5 of the attributes if a guy with all 10 isn't there.

Note that this is a metaphor. I know someone can claim "but what if Savage has 8 of 10 yada yada yada". For the purpose of this metaphor, I am assuming O'Brien's 10 points are accurate in determining a QBs worth and if Savage had an 8/10, he'd have been a first round choice.

=====================================

In simpler terms:

Teams rate QB's. The rare ones are rated 1/1. Some are rated mid first rounders. Others are rated fourth round talent. Basically, some are rated at every level of the spectrum.

All I'm saying is don't ignore QB because that 1/1 talent isn't there. Take the guy you rate as a top 10 or 15 draft pick. He's better than what you have.

In all this, the evaluation still might be wrong, but that holds true for every position. Try to fix the problem; don't keep waiting until next year for that perfect 1/1.
So we should have drafted Savage with 1.1 if he graded Savage & Bortles as having 7/10 of the qualities he's looking for?
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #10
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Hey, man, we've got our potentially great QB that is perfect for O'Brien's system. Unfortunately, he's got a jacked up pec at the moment.
Savage is hurt too?
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #11
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
So we should have drafted Savage with 1.1 if he graded Savage & Bortles as having 7/10 of the qualities he's looking for?
Correct. Take the metaphor as a literal, ignore the meaning of the post, and obfuscate the discussion.


A 7 out of 10 quarterback, with the assumption that the "O'Brien Rating System" is accurate for purposes of the metaphor, would probably be a second round choice. I haven't performed a mathematical proof of this theory.

==============================

Let me try again. Even the Texans don't pick first every year, so they likely won't have the 1/1 pick next draft (unless you want to twist the discussion and assume they trade up). Let's say they pick 12th.

Assume there is no Payton Manning to pick 1/1. Heck, assume there is and someone else takes him.

Assume the Texans have a Bortles or Bridgewater type rated as a top 15 pick. Say they have a Travis Johnson (sorry, I wanted to make people cringe) type defensive lineman rated as a top 12 pick.

I suggest they don't give up because they didn't get a 10 out of 10 rated quarterback and pick the d-lineman. I suggest they take the 9 out of 10 rated quarterback (who is a reasonable pick for that draft slot) and address the position.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #12
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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So we should have drafted Savage with 1.1 if he graded Savage & Bortles as having 7/10 of the qualities he's looking for?
You consistently make this argument and it makes no sense. If the market values someone at 4th round you don't spend a 1st round on them just to prove your evaluation.

You liked McCarron, even in the 1st. Everyone in the world knew he wasn't going to be drafted in the 1st or anywhere close. It would have been dumb to spend a 1st on him.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #13
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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You consistently make this argument and it makes no sense. If the market values someone at 4th round you don't spend a 1st round on them just to prove your evaluation.

You liked McCarron, even in the 1st. Everyone in the world knew he wasn't going to be drafted in the 1st or anywhere close. It would have been dumb to spend a 1st on him.
That's absolutely not the argument I'm making.

O'Brien said there wasn't much separation between the QBs in this draft. If we take him at his word & he graded Bortles, Carr, Garoppolo, & Savage as 7 out of 10, why would he spend a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd if two of the four are available & he has the ammo to move up to get one if he needed to?

That's all I'm saying.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #14
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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That's absolutely not the argument I'm making.

O'Brien said there wasn't much separation between the QBs in this draft. If we take him at his word & he graded Bortles, Carr, Garoppolo, & Savage as 7 out of 10, why would he spend a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd if two of the four are available & he has the ammo to move up to get one if he needed to?

That's all I'm saying.
Not much separation is not the same as grading out and being valued the same
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #15
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Not much separation is not the same as grading out and being valued the same
I understand that. It seems that athleticism in QBs carried a lot more weight in this draft than a strong arm. & yeah, Savage doesn't have the experience those guys have but he's just as talented.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #16
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Mallett might be that guy that raises the bar for Texans QBs; he showed some promise. If not, the team is behind yet another two years (this year and next year) if they don't pull the trigger and invest in a QB with a first round draft pick.

Yes, I know that first round quarterbacks aren't guaranteed to succeed. However, I doubt one could have less impact than our most recent can't miss, no-brainer first round draft pick.

Screw waiting for perfection. Better is the enemy of good enough.
ugh, I cannot imagine us having this conversation in two years. Next to your team blowing the biggest lead in playoff history, waiting for your team to find it's starting franchise QB has got to be one of the worst feelings as a football fan.

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Savage is hurt too?
Well played, man.

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I understand that. It seems that athleticism in QBs carried a lot more weight in this draft than a strong arm. & yeah, Savage doesn't have the experience those guys have but he's just as talented.
O'Brien has stated that he values three main traits in QBs more than any others: accuracy, clutch, and intelligence.

He also said at the same time that height, athleticism, and strong arm are not his priorities when evaluating QBs. He would not mind having those in his QB, but they are not the qualities that determine his decision.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #17
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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ugh, I cannot imagine us having this conversation in two years. Next to your team blowing the biggest lead in playoff history, waiting for your team to find it's starting franchise QB has got to be one of the worst feelings as a football fan.
You get the feeling it is coming.

There was a lot of discussion on this board about not considering Bortles this year because next year was loaded with quarterbacks. Now I see a lot of receiver, linebacker, defensive lineman talk because the perfect match isn't out there (again). I hope this sentiment isn't reflected by the brain trust, but we've seen it before.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #18
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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You get the feeling it is coming.

There was a lot of discussion on this board about not considering Bortles this year because next year was loaded with quarterbacks. Now I see a lot of receiver, linebacker, defensive lineman talk because the perfect match isn't out there (again). I hope this sentiment isn't reflected by the brain trust, but we've seen it before.
I've seen too many teams take a first round qb & wait for him to save their franchise. Then I saw Kubiak take 3rd round Matt Schaub & have more success than those guys & their 1st rounders.

However, I wouldn't have a problem if we did take a QB in the first. O'Brien is just about to show us that he could do something 4 other HCs couldn't & that's make Ryan Fitzpatrick a winning QB. If he can do that, then I feel pretty confident that he can take an average QB & make him a winner (ala Matt Schaub) & that if we happen to draft the next Tom Brady or whoever, he won't be wasted.

The question now though, is how long can we keep the talent we do have around him. For the longest time, we've been a QB away, my opinion of course, can Rick Smith keep it going?
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #19
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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I've seen too many teams take a first round qb & wait for him to save their franchise. Then I saw Kubiak take 3rd round Matt Schaub & have more success than those guys & their 1st rounders.
Has there ever been a first round quarterback that has been a success in the league? Reading stuff here makes me think every single one has failed. Except for ones drafted by the Colts, which fits the woe is me narrative.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #20
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Default Re: Texans Playoff Picture

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Has there ever been a first round quarterback that has been a success in the league? Reading stuff here makes me think every single one has failed. Except for ones drafted by the Colts, which fits the woe is me narrative.
From 2005, to 2013, which QBs (list them) do you regret not drafting, whether we were in position or not.
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