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Old 02-07-2014   #1
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Default Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

Jayson Braddock ‏@JaysonBraddock
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I've finished viewing 6 QBs in this draft class: Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel, Brett Smith, Carr, & McCarron. Here's the top 5 out of those.

1) Brett Smith - Wyoming
2) Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville
3) Blake Bortles - UCF
4) Derek Carr -Fresno St
5) Johnny Manziel -Texas A&M


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The 6-foot-3, 206-pound junior leaves behind school records for total offense (10,365 yards), touchdowns (97) and touchdown passes (76). He also holds the Mountain West and Wyoming record for total yards in a game (640) and is second in school history with 8,834 passing yards.

...

To evaluate where Smith will likely be drafted and where he needs to improve, the Star-Tribune on Saturday spoke with CBS and NFLDraftScout.com analyst Dane Brugler, quarterback evaluator Benjamin Allbright and ESPN Denver NFL Insider Cecil Lammey.

The consensus is that if Smith impresses in workouts, interviews and finally at the NFL Combine, he will likely be selected somewhere between the second and fourth round in the NFL Draft taking place May 8-10.

Enough with the news. Now for the analysis. Following is a Q&A between the Star-Tribune and Brugler, Allbright and Lammey, concerning Smith's NFL future.

Casper Star-Tribune: As of right now, where do you see Brett Smith falling in the 2014 NFL Draft?

Dane Brugler: Scouts have told me they've given him second-day grades, which is the same grade I gave him. And I'd expect him to be drafted somewhere in the 2nd-4th round range.

Benjamin Allbright: If he has an outstanding combine and interviews he could go as high as the second round. I’d put him in that second to fourth round range, where he fits right now. I like him. Brett’s a guy I saw his freshman year and I knew right away he was a guy who was going to play in the league (NFL) someday.

Cecil Lammey: Right now most scouts I talk to consider Smith a third-round pick. That could climb if he performs well in the pre-draft process (Scouting Combine, Pro Day).

Star-Tribune: Based on what you’ve seen, where do you think Smith falls among the quarterbacks that are expected to come out in this draft class?

Brugler: To me, Smith is a more controlled version of (2012 Heisman Trophy Winner) Johnny Manziel. So I'd much rather have Smith than Manziel and I can get Smith in the 2nd-3rd round while if you want Manziel, you need to take him top-15 because someone will take him that high. Smith is the first underclassman QB to declare so time will tell where he falls in the QB pecking order, but he'll be behind Teddy Bridgewater and a few others.

Allbright: (Louisville’s) Teddy Bridgewater is going to go ahead of him. (Fresno State’s) Derek Carr is probably going to go ahead of him. You’re probably looking mid-to-late first round for Carr. I think you look at some of these other guys that are out there and Brett has a good chance to be anywhere from the fourth or fifth quarterback taken up to about the eighth.

Lammey: I currently have Smith as my number six QB in this year's draft class. I have him ahead of other well-known quarterbacks like Tajh Boyd (Clemson), Aaron Murray (Georgia) and Zach Mettenberger (LSU).

Star-Tribune: What do you think Smith’s strengths and weaknesses are heading to the next level?

Brugler: STRENGTHS: Average height and body type … better athlete than given credit – deceiving speed and runs like his hair is on fire … scans quickly and holds the ball as long as possible … recognizes soft spots in coverage pre-snap … extremely tough and gutsy … elusive in the pocket to avoid the rush … extremely quick feet and always appears under control.

WEAKNESSES: Lazy decisions at times, will throw into tight coverage hoping for a play … extremely confident, but almost to a fault as he tests tight spaces too often … accuracy tends to dip when throwing on the run…gets jumpy and skittish in the pocket … good enough arm strength but lacks elite velocity especially when he can’t step into his throws.

Allbright: He reads the field so quickly. And I don’t mean to dog anyone, but that Wyoming offensive line is terrible. He doesn’t have a lot of time back there, and given that the field is so spread out because of the system (former Wyoming coach Dave) Christensen liked to run, the defensive line was able to kind of pin their ears back and not really worry about the run. He reads the field very well and he has a very quick release, which are things that you can’t really teach. Of course, the athleticism is a huge strength as well.

On the downside, he struggles a little to throw on the run. But then again, who doesn’t? He doesn’t have the strongest arm in the draft. He’s certainly not a Carr or a Mettenberger as far as that goes. But he’s got adequate velocity. I think the gunslinger attitude he operates with will serve him well in the league. He tries to squeeze the ball in places where maybe he shouldn’t sometimes, but in the league you’d rather have a guy try to take a chance than not.

Lammey: Strengths — mobility, understands coverage pre-snap, is able to go through reads quickly, will scan the entire field before taking off to run, not rattled by pressure, high football intelligence, leader. Weaknesses — sometimes too bold, will attack small windows when perhaps a check down is best, accuracy suffers when throwing on the run, too thin right now.
...
Star-Tribune: Smith is going to have a busy next few months, with the NFL Combine and his pro day and interviews. What do you think he needs to show to improve his draft stock?

Brugler: It's easy to see Smith's competitive spirit on the field and scouts and NFL teams will want to see that same attitude off the field when it comes to the film room and X's and O's so he should interview really well and win over coaches with his competitive mentality and winning mind-set. I know he puts the work in off the field so Smith might surprise some when he runs in the 4.6 range in the 40 and it wouldn't surprise me if he decides to do the bench press even though QBs often skip that drill. The pre-draft process is important for every player, but especially true for quarterbacks from the non-heavyweight conferences.

Allbright: The main thing is going to be the stuff that’s behind the scenes, the measurables. In the interviews, people are going to want to know some things that are medical. As for concussions, he’s had one official concussion and it’s been hinted that there’s been one or two others. That’s going to be something he’s going to need to clear up. Concussion history is very heightened in the modern NFL.

Then there’s how tall he’s going to measure in. He’s listed at 6-3, and he’s probably going to come in at 6-2 and a half. He definitely needs to do that. You don’t want to come in any lower than that. And a big thing not many people talk about is hand size. I don’t know what Brett’s hand size is, and we’re talking about the measurement from your pinky to your thumb if you spread your hand out. That has to do with how well you can grip a football at the pro level, if you can grip it cleanly. Guys with small hands just don’t succeed.

Lammey: Smith has to bulk up as much as he can. He has the arm to make all the throws in the NFL, but he needs to show better velocity on long passes. Deep passes tend to sail a bit when his feet aren't set.
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Old 02-07-2014   #2
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

That's quite an interesting take. You would think if he's that good he would have been allowed to attend the combine and not be a snub, even if he is an underclassman.
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Old 02-07-2014   #3
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

Brett Smith of Wyoming is the best QB in this Draft ? Who's to say that's not the case because it's so difficult to assess a college QBs chances of making it in the NFL as so many mistakes have been made by people who supposedly are "experts". Who knows, maybe this guy is the Texans "franchise QB" ?
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Old 02-07-2014   #4
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

I was actually going to start a thread about Smith last night. It got to late and had my grandson to take care of. I've watched a few of his games and he's kinda a poor mans Manziel.
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Old 02-07-2014   #5
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

Who is Jayson Braddock? I did a lazy Google search and it said NFL scout and a sports radio guy for Houston ( I think most are idiots BTW), but there was no Wiki page to sum up everything for me.

I'm not familiar with him.

I noticed he's not on this chart:

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/scoring/mockdrafts.shtml

Anyone more familiar with him that can weigh in before I completely dismiss him as a guy just reaching out for attention?
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Old 02-07-2014   #6
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

So, if you're double jointed and can really bend out your pinky and/or thumb, you are a better QB?
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Old 02-07-2014   #7
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

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Originally Posted by TexansFTW View Post
Who is Jayson Braddock?
Media/radio guy, NFL & draft analyst, been doing it for some time now -- 10+ years? Jason never falls prey to group-think. Has unique, yet valid takes that have rung true for me often over the years.

Watch Smith's tape. There's something to work with there. Has concussion history.
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Old 02-07-2014   #8
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

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Media/radio guy, NFL & draft analyst, been doing it for some time now -- 10+ years? Jason never falls prey to group-think. Has unique, yet valid takes that have rung true for me often over the years.
He should have made that list I posted then if he was any good. I do like guys that form their own opinions probably more than most, but I want to see some credibility to it being backed up though.

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Watch Smith's tape.
Nope. lol. I'll take your word that he's a pretty credible QB though.
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Old 02-07-2014   #9
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

I'm higher on Smith than most people but I think he's a late 2nd round prospect at best. I have him at the top of the 3rd round. He could be everything that Manziel is supposed to be or he could totally flame out. The coaching he gets at the next level is essential. He is raw.

I wouldn't call him a poor man's Manziel. I'd just call him an even less developed Manziel. Both have the potential to be a Jeff Garcia (Manziel) or Mark Brunell (Smith) type of QB if they develop correctly, and there is nothing wrong with that at all. I would say Manziel has a higher floor. At worst, I think Manziel could still make an impact in a three year window. Smith needs to be brought along slowly.
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Old 02-07-2014   #10
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
I'm higher on Smith than most people but I think he's a late 2nd round prospect at best. I have him at the top of the 3rd round. He could be everything that Manziel is supposed to be or he could totally flame out. The coaching he gets at the next level is essential. He is raw.

I wouldn't call him a poor man's Manziel. I'd just call him an even less developed Manziel. Both have the potential to be a Jeff Garcia (Manziel) or Mark Brunell (Smith) type of QB if they develop correctly, and there is nothing wrong with that at all. I would say Manziel has a higher floor. At worst, I think Manziel could still make an impact in a three year window. Smith needs to be brought along slowly.
There are a few of us (myself & Steebtexan included) who are high on Smith.

I have him in the top 75 prospects but at this point think he could be had in the early portion of the 4th round mainly because he has flown under the radar for the most part tho that could change if he shows well at the combine.

There isn't much he's missing other than a cannon arm.

I agree Manziel (and TB , BB) has the higher floor .... but who has the higher ceiling ?!
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Old 02-07-2014   #11
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

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There are a few of us (myself & Steebtexan included) who are high on Smith.

I have him in the top 75 prospects but at this point think he could be had in the early portion of the 4th round mainly because he has flown under the radar for the most part tho that could change if he shows well at the combine.

There isn't much he's missing other than a cannon arm.

I agree Manziel (and TB , BB) has the higher floor .... but who has the higher ceiling ?!
I didn't mean to insinuate that nobody else likes him, just that most people have no clue who he is or have at least never seen him. He's definitely under the radar.

I have him at #78. Smith's ceiling is probably similar to Manziel's but he is much cheaper.
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Old 02-07-2014   #12
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

I don't have a big board right now. But if I did I would guess Smith would be in the 55-65 range. I am higher on him than most. Guess what the knock on Montana was coming out of college? Good not great arm strength/tried to make things happen that weren't there.
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Old 02-07-2014   #13
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

Seems like we are going to need a much better Oline & coaching regardless of whom is the QB + we better have a good RB back there. I hope someone on Texans is a really good talent evaluator.
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Old 02-07-2014   #14
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

Smith is way more similar to Manziel than people think or want to admit.

He is an above average athlete at QB, not quite as good as Manziel. He bails the pocket early just like Manziel does, although he does seem a little bit more comfortable standing in there. Makes plays with his feet but is too reliant on his athleticism instead of his arm, just like Manziel.

He is an accurate passer, on the same level as Manziel. He has a strong enough arm, not as strong as Manziel's. He seems more comfortable letting it fly than he does reading the defense and finding the correct read, a trait that Manziel also shares. He's a gunslinger with a lot of confidence, often making throws he shouldn't just because he thinks he can. Another thing he has in common with Manziel.

He plays in a simplified offense, but probably not to the degree that Manziel does. Either way, they both have a lot of ground to make up in that category.

I like his size better than Manziel's. They are about even as far as their mental development. What makes Manziel better for me is that he has similar but slightly better physical tools plus he consistently helped drag his team to wins, and against far superior competition. Smith had almost no help at Wyoming but you would've liked to see better results. Plus, Manziel only has about three bad games on tape in two years. Smith has about six in the same time span.
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Old 02-07-2014   #15
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
Smith is way more similar to Manziel than people think or want to admit.

He is an above average athlete at QB, not quite as good as Manziel. He bails the pocket early just like Manziel does, although he does seem a little bit more comfortable standing in there. Makes plays with his feet but is too reliant on his athleticism instead of his arm, just like Manziel.

He is an accurate passer, on the same level as Manziel. He has a strong enough arm, not as strong as Manziel's. He seems more comfortable letting it fly than he does reading the defense and finding the correct read, a trait that Manziel also shares. He's a gunslinger with a lot of confidence, often making throws he shouldn't just because he thinks he can. Another thing he has in common with Manziel.

He plays in a simplified offense, but probably not to the degree that Manziel does. Either way, they both have a lot of ground to make up in that category.

I like his size better than Manziel's. They are about even as far as their mental development. What makes Manziel better for me is that he has similar but slightly better physical tools plus he consistently helped drag his team to wins, and against far superior competition. Smith had almost no help at Wyoming but you would've liked to see better results. Plus, Manziel only has about three bad games on tape in two years. Smith has about six in the same time span.
Agreed,

You've watced more of Smith than I have. But the reasons stated above is why I would rather have Smith at 55-65 than any QB at 1-1. What do JM/Smith also have in common? Great footwork and accuracy.

The competition thingy isn't a deal breaker for me at 3-1.
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Old 02-07-2014   #16
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

The gunslinger image is interesting depending on how it is defined. Old West gunfighters' reps were made on being faster but actually, it was about being successful. You could be faster and miss the target and lose the "game". For many it was a point and shoot with little thinking from what I understand. From what I've seen of Manziel he just has a "feeling" or as it has been identified as "spidey sense". Can't be explained, just seems to work for the most part. If he can make another step forward as he did before this last season, he could be one of a kind. Tune down the rush to rush (and he did that better this season) behind a line he feels comfortable with and that would eliminate my biggest objection. I have not watched Smith, could the same be said about him?
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Old 02-07-2014   #17
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

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Agreed,

You've watced more of Smith than I have. But the reasons stated above is why I would rather have Smith at 55-65 than any QB at 1-1. What do JM/Smith also have in common? Great footwork and accuracy.

The competition thingy isn't a deal breaker for me at 3-1.
It shouldn't be a deal breaker. I have two issues though.

There is no guarantee that he is there at 3-1. So if he's your guy you have to take him at 2-1 or trade up from 3-1 into the 2nd round to be sure you get him. I'm okay with that if O'Brien needs to have him.

I also think he needs one year minimum holding a clipboard, preferably two. Not only is he facing a huge mental jump like Manziel, but he is also facing a huge jump in competition. I'm okay with that too. I actually prefer that, but it does fly in the face of McNair's "win now" mantra.
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Old 02-08-2014   #18
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

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. Tune down the rush to rush (and he did that better this season) behind a line he feels comfortable with and that would eliminate my biggest objection. I have not watched Smith, could the same be said about him?
Yes the same could apply to Smith.

He may as well have played behind the OL HHWNBM did in the commercial that didn't have an OL ..... they were that bad. You put this guy behind a bottom third of the NFL line and he'd probably think it was a luxury ....

Add to that the fact that the offense was wide open , defenders didn't have to respect the run at all meaning they could just pin their ears back and attack the passer. Smith had to let it fly or .... get gone.

I think some of that gunslinger talk the scouts mention comes from the fact that he didn't get a lot of time to process information , he had to make those decisions instantly.


What he did against Nebraska , despite the difference in talent was pretty impressive even if they did eventually lose.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFL-kzFIMqE
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Old 02-08-2014   #19
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

No combine invite for Brett Smith .... That's got to sting.


I really wonder how many NFL guy's show up at Wyoming's pro day. (Do they even have one ?)
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Default Re: Brett Smith, QB - Wyoming

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Originally Posted by badboy View Post
Seems like we are going to need a much better Oline & coaching regardless of whom is the QB + we better have a good RB back there. I hope someone on Texans is a really good talent evaluator.
Has everybody decided that Foster is though?
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