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Old 05-24-2014   #161
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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So, who's all for waiting for training camp and pre-season to sort all this out? Anyone?

Then again, what's the fun in that?
I'm all about letting training camp and preseason sorting this out. I'm still going to "discuss" it ad nauseam.
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Old 05-25-2014   #162
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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All young QBs starting for the first time in the NFL need some work in certain aspects of their game.

Think of the 18 INTs Luck threw his rookie year.
And I've mentioned I noted at least five should have been INTS and 5 near misses or so in his gist six games (I didn't watch the rest of his games in detail so I don't know whether there were other drops and/or near-misses.)

Wilson, on the other hand, needed to make plays often with his feet. Some of those occasions were because he didn't make the correct reads in order to get the ball out on time.

Even veterans miss their reads at times.
Schaub for example, missed some CB blitzes that resulted in sacks.
If I remember correctly, he got hurt on one of those occasions.
Trying to compare luck to keenum is not a good look. Even though luclk has been middle of the road stat wise, he makes game winning plays. Indy has really nothing specialmin terms of talent. Avg run game and stopping the run. Avg o-line and d-line,but luck makes plays. Keenan, if he had something, he shouldve been able to win a game despitebwhats going on. 1 game,thats it. Case couldnt even do that. I dont see these kinda threads for yates and he beat cincy on the road .He took the team downfield in a 2 minute drill and got it done.
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Old 05-25-2014   #163
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
All young QBs starting for the first time in the NFL need some work in certain aspects of their game.
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Trying to compare luck to keenum is not a good look. Even though luclk has been middle of the road stat wise, he makes game winning plays.
So what are we really saying?

I think 76Texan has a point. All young QBs struggle in one way or another. I can see a coach looking at Case & thinking, "I can win with that."

At the same time I agree with leebigeztx... there were moments when the ball was in Case's hands & he simply did not make the plays needed to win the game. We lost several games by 3 or less, a few more by 7 or less.

Maybe there was one where Case made the plays, only to be let down by the fat Hobbit.

Then again, if Arian can come back & be that closer he was... or if Prosch & Blue can close out games... maybe Case can be "enough" for now. (Maybe Tj can)
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Old 05-25-2014   #164
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Trying to compare luck to keenum is not a good look. Even though luclk has been middle of the road stat wise, he makes game winning plays. Indy has really nothing specialmin terms of talent. Avg run game and stopping the run. Avg o-line and d-line,but luck makes plays. Keenan, if he had something, he shouldve been able to win a game despitebwhats going on. 1 game,thats it. Case couldnt even do that. I dont see these kinda threads for yates and he beat cincy on the road .He took the team downfield in a 2 minute drill and got it done.
Think of all the talent Yates had to work with, that was easily the most talented team the texans have ever had. In Keenums first start we had 0 running backs, we had greg jones playing running back, we had one TE.

We all know how much defenses respect Foster, and how much pressure he took off Schaub. Keenum didn't have that luxury, and you can say that we still had tate but teams didnt fear tate like they did Foster and rightfully so.

And stat wise in first year luck and keenum were very similar

Luck - 54.1 comp% - 6.98 avg - QBR 65.2 - RAT 76.5
Keenum - 54.2 comp% - 6.96 avg - QBR 34.5 - RAT 78.2

And dont say that all that matters is wins and losses, last season was lost way before Case was given a shot. Give him a shot with a healthy team and where there is not a coach breathing down his neck ready to pull him first chance he gets.
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Old 05-25-2014   #165
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Trying to compare luck to keenum is not a good look. Even though luclk has been middle of the road stat wise, he makes game winning plays. Indy has really nothing specialmin terms of talent. Avg run game and stopping the run. Avg o-line and d-line,but luck makes plays. Keenan, if he had something, he shouldve been able to win a game despitebwhats going on. 1 game,thats it. Case couldnt even do that. I dont see these kinda threads for yates and he beat cincy on the road .He took the team downfield in a 2 minute drill and got it done.
1. Comparison is one thing; conclusion is another.
Do not forget that even before Luck plays a single down in the NFL, I already projected him as a starting QB at the next level.
I just thought that it was premature to automatically put him as a shoe-in to join the elite guys like Peyton, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers.
On the other hand, I said that with his limited stature, Keenum needs to learn to play smart like Brees to be an NFL QB. So far, he has yet to that ability.
But it's still a little early to come to a conclusion, so I give him an I.
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Old 05-25-2014   #166
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

2. Indy defense gave up 387 points while the Texans D allowed 428 points.
And I have determined some time ago that Schaub was less burdened by this (by a smidgen.)
Overall, Luck had about a 3 - point advantage over Keenum from his defense.

The Colts D also forced a few more turnovers (about 4 or 5).

The ST gave Luck a little better field position (about 4-5 yards. )

I don't have the numbers for Pass-Pro, even though I did an estimate on this before; the Colts line gave Luck a little better protection.

The Colts receivers did not have a case of dropsies like the Texans'.
We all heard how Wayne found a fountain of youth while Hilton and Allen were steals.
Even Avery had a better year than his norm (independent of QB play.)

Keenum faced 5 winning teams in the 8 games he played.
Luck faced 5 the whole year.

I mean, the list goes on.
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Old 05-25-2014   #167
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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2. Indy defense gave up 387 points while the Texans D allowed 428 points.
And I have determined some time ago that Schaub was less burdened by this (by a smidgen.)
Overall, Luck had about a 3 - point advantage over Keenum from his defense.

The Colts D also forced a few more turnovers (about 4 or 5).

The ST gave Luck a little better field position (about 4-5 yards. )

I don't have the numbers for Pass-Pro, even though I did an estimate on this before; the Colts line gave Luck a little better protection.

The Colts receivers did not have a case of dropsies like the Texans'.
We all heard how Wayne found a fountain of youth while Hilton and Allen were steals.
Even Avery had a better year than his norm (independent of QB play.)

Keenum faced 5 winning teams in the 8 games he played.
Luck faced 5 the whole year.

I mean, the list goes on.
Keenum's days as a Texan are not long .
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Old 05-25-2014   #168
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Keenum's days as a Texan are not long .
Sure.

If Keenum doesn't improve in TC while Yates does, I can see Keenum getting cut.
I don't think that's going to happen though.

There's also a chance that Keenum gets hurt; which is something I don't wish for.

The Texans might be able to swing a deal for a QB that OB really likes and the guy somehow fell off favor with his team.

There's also a tiny chance that somehow the light bulb goes off in Savage's head and he impresses the heck out of everybody such that OB is comfortable enough to carry just two QBS on the roster.

Anything can happen.
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Old 05-25-2014   #169
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

Why are we comparing him to Luck? Because Luck didn´t have that great numbers his first season and yet no one is questioning him? Luck had major problems his first season, but (and that`s a big but) he has:

1. Prototypical size, arm and brain
2. Still led several game winning drives

Other QBs had great first years, like Newton or RG3. All that has nothing to do with Keenum. Like I said, I like Keenum. I think he deserved his shot and I think he did better than all the NFL expected. And he should get a chance in camp to prove he is starter material to OB. But so far he hasn`t earned himself anything.

If he wants the starting job he needs to go at camp like Russell Wilson did. He wasn`t supposed to start, his team just traded for a QB. But he played great in camp and in preseason and earned his starting job. That`s what Keenum needs to do. And frankly, it has never been easier. Yates is Yates, probably never more than a backup QB if he can stay in the league at all. Fitzpatrick is a journeyman in the NFL, a QB that noone believes can be our future and a guy that is new to the team. And Savage is a 4th rounder with major question marks that hasn`t played football for a thousand days in between seasons in college.

So, if Keenum is as good as a lot of people here think (and I hope), he should go out there and win the job. If he can`t beat out Fitzpatrick, Yates and Savage after 2 years in the league and starting 8 games, he doesn`t deserve the job.
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Old 05-25-2014   #170
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Why are we comparing him to Luck? Because Luck didn´t have that great numbers his first season and yet no one is questioning him? Luck had major problems his first season, but (and that`s a big but) he has:

1. Prototypical size, arm and brain
2. Still led several game winning drives

Other QBs had great first years, like Newton or RG3. All that has nothing to do with Keenum. Like I said, I like Keenum. I think he deserved his shot and I think he did better than all the NFL expected. And he should get a chance in camp to prove he is starter material to OB. But so far he hasn`t earned himself anything.

If he wants the starting job he needs to go at camp like Russell Wilson did. He wasn`t supposed to start, his team just traded for a QB. But he played great in camp and in preseason and earned his starting job. That`s what Keenum needs to do. And frankly, it has never been easier. Yates is Yates, probably never more than a backup QB if he can stay in the league at all. Fitzpatrick is a journeyman in the NFL, a QB that noone believes can be our future and a guy that is new to the team. And Savage is a 4th rounder with major question marks that hasn`t played football for a thousand days in between seasons in college.

So, if Keenum is as good as a lot of people here think (and I hope), he should go out there and win the job. If he can`t beat out Fitzpatrick, Yates and Savage after 2 years in the league and starting 8 games, he doesn`t deserve the job.
Exactly.
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Old 05-25-2014   #171
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

BTW, TK, it was Nick Foles that I wanted to mention, not Fales.

Fales was on the radar, but he fell off quickly with more tapes against pressure.

On Foles, I had responded to a poster who asked me at the time.
I responded that I like Foles when I scouted the other guys that we now have on the team.
He just held on to the ball a little too long.
That is a concern, having reservation about Kolb some years earlier.
Otherwise, Foles was a solid prospect in the mid-round.

I think this is easier to fix than the ability to perform under pressure.
What I mean is that Foles didn't crumble under pressure; he just had a propensity to hold on to the ball a bit longer than I like.
Whether the guys can fix these habits, nobody can tell.
But it did not look to me like he was slow in his read progression (as compared to the number of prospects over the year.)

Bortles is different.
I like him too.
But I did mention to you once that I don't like his mechanics.
It's a bad habit (more than one) that fails him when the pressure is on.
He was able to do well with fewer pressure in college.
Can he correct his mechanics to become a good NFL QB?
That is another million - dollar question I'd rather not have with a first round pick, especially high in the order.
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Old 05-25-2014   #172
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Trying to compare luck to keenum is not a good look. Even though luclk has been middle of the road stat wise, he makes game winning plays. Indy has really nothing specialmin terms of talent. Avg run game and stopping the run. Avg o-line and d-line,but luck makes plays. Keenan, if he had something, he shouldve been able to win a game despitebwhats going on. 1 game,thats it. Case couldnt even do that. I dont see these kinda threads for yates and he beat cincy on the road .He took the team downfield in a 2 minute drill and got it done.

Look at how many "gimme" games Luck "lucked" into playing in a horrid division playing horrid teams. When you figure his wins and then look at how many of those came out of the 6 games in which he played the Jags, Tack, and Texans each year, it puts Luck's performance in more accurate perspective.
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Old 05-25-2014   #173
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

Luck has the most come from behind wins and 4th quarter heroics of any young QB I can recall, he may even hold some kind of record for game winning drives as a rookie, trying to discredit him in any way is really not doing the game any justice.

Keenum is on this team because he's cheap. simple as that.
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Old 05-25-2014   #174
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Luck has the most come from behind wins and 4th quarter heroics of any young QB I can recall, he may even hold some kind of record for game winning drives as a rookie, trying to discredit him in any way is really not doing the game any justice.

Keenum is on this team because he's cheap. simple as that.
Stating the obvious is easy.
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Old 05-25-2014   #175
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Luck - 54.1 comp% - 6.98 avg - QBR 65.2 - RAT 76.5
Keenum - 54.2 comp% - 6.96 avg - QBR 34.5 - RAT 78.2
Ever hear that saying, "Stats don't lie"?

Or the one, "Stats don't tell the whole story"?


EsPN's QBR is supposed to bridge the gap between those two statements.

While the agregate stats do look similar, comp%, ypa, passer rating... The QBR says that Luck's play helped his team win "way" more than Case's did (if it's a linear scale, then nearly twice as much).
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Old 05-25-2014   #176
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Ever hear that saying, "Stats don't lie"?

Or the one, "Stats don't tell the whole story"?


EsPN's QBR is supposed to bridge the gap between those two statements.

While the agregate stats do look similar, comp%, ypa, passer rating... The QBR says that Luck's play helped his team win "way" more than Case's did (if it's a linear scale, then nearly twice as much).
Yeah i agree but his QBR was really good his first 4 starts, it went to crap after that. Well once he started trying to stay in the pocket anyways.
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Old 05-25-2014   #177
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Look at how many "gimme" games Luck "lucked" into playing in a horrid division playing horrid teams. When you figure his wins and then look at how many of those came out of the 6 games in which he played the Jags, Tack, and Texans each year, it puts Luck's performance in more accurate perspective.
Luck also beat seattle,sf,and denver. Those same gimme games, case had also. Case played jax twice,titans,raiders, Case also played vs colts,kc and couldn't win a single game. Playing qb is very difficult,moreso than we make it on this board. Playing qb also calls for the guy to perform despite the environment. Luck lost reggie wayne,the couldn't run the ball and he still guided the colts to 11 wins.

In the last 10 yrs, which is a lifetime in the nfl,how many udfa qbs have been solid starters? The only guy I can come up with is Romo. Not to mention,we're not talking about a elite or top shelf who was hidden at some naia school. If say a guy like savage went undrafted because of something,his golf bag is full of clubs. I could see a team trying to develop his traits. That's why,right or wrong ,logan thomas was drafted higher than most thought. Kellen moore,case keenum types are really worthy of upside discussions imo. Not a lot of talented college qbs goes undrafted.
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Old 05-26-2014   #178
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
Luck also beat seattle,sf,and denver. Those same gimme games, case had also. Case played jax twice,titans,raiders, Case also played vs colts,kc and couldn't win a single game. Playing qb is very difficult,moreso than we make it on this board. Playing qb also calls for the guy to perform despite the environment. Luck lost reggie wayne,the couldn't run the ball and he still guided the colts to 11 wins.

In the last 10 yrs, which is a lifetime in the nfl,how many udfa qbs have been solid starters? The only guy I can come up with is Romo. Not to mention,we're not talking about a elite or top shelf who was hidden at some naia school. If say a guy like savage went undrafted because of something,his golf bag is full of clubs. I could see a team trying to develop his traits. That's why,right or wrong ,logan thomas was drafted higher than most thought. Kellen moore,case keenum types are really worthy of upside discussions imo. Not a lot of talented college qbs goes undrafted.
LB, you're going in circle, man.
Let me restate this for you.
In the respective year they first started, Keenum played against five winning teams with several main pieces around him on the shelves while Luck played 5 winning teams the whole year with a full deck.

Don't lump one year with the next.
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Old 05-26-2014   #179
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Yeah i agree but his QBR was really good his first 4 starts, it went to crap after that. Well once he started trying to stay in the pocket anyways.
Once opposing defenses focused on keeping him inside the pocket... That is an important distinction. Keenum has some physical limitations that give defenses an advantage. That is an objective truth. Perhaps he can overcome them. His physical skill set simply reduces his margin for error and requires him to compensate in other areas. I am rooting for him. What I saw last year, though, is an excellent college QB and leader play his best football early. Then, as defenses scouted him, they forced him to do the things he can't do consistently- like throw intermediate passes from the pocket. Unless he can figure out how to do that consistently, he can not succeed in the NFL.
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Old 05-26-2014   #180
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Once opposing defenses focused on keeping him inside the pocket... That is an important distinction. Keenum has some physical limitations that give defenses an advantage. That is an objective truth. Perhaps he can overcome them. His physical skill set simply reduces his margin for error and requires him to compensate in other areas. I am rooting for him. What I saw last year, though, is an excellent college QB and leader play his best football early. Then, as defenses scouted him, they forced him to do the things he can't do consistently- like throw intermediate passes from the pocket. Unless he can figure out how to do that consistently, he can not succeed in the NFL.
I keep disagreeing with the part about teams figuring out Keenum.

The Texans got beat on Pass-Pro in non - blitzing situations a whole more than they should.
If they can just be average, it would give Keenum a hair more time (like a quarter of a second to half a second) on three or four plays per game.

If they were as good as the year that had them ranked in the top ten in pass-pro, it would have made a huge difference.

Sure, Keenum made some mistakes, but that is expected from a first time starter.

Missing OD, Foster, and Tate didn't help either.
Not only the run game suffered, but blitz pickup was poor by the other RBs.

The pass catchers were dropping more balls than ever.

And the defense didn't help put pressure on the opponents by bailing them out too often as compared to their best year.

I'm quite optimistic this year.
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