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Old 05-22-2014   #141
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Originally Posted by NCTexan View Post
Andrew Luck had a pretty bad oline in front of him (he got sacked more) and he wasn't getting sacked for 10/yards a time.

Don't pretend like every other teams oline is perfect.
Luck got sacked 32 times in 16 games.
Keenum got sacked 19 times in less than 8 games.

So actually, prorated, Keenum was sacked more.

But my point about all sacks not being equal was supposed to be meant in a different way.
It's going to be hard to elaborate, but at least, let me try to start.

Greg Bedard from SI wrote a year-long series with title that goes something like "Film room MMQB - Pressure Point".

You can read up on his method of grading.
He gave different grade for a sack caused by the QB holding on to the ball too long, for example; which is logical.

By the same token, I figure that he doesn't penalize an O-line man when the QB hold on to the ball.

And so, Bedard has a chart to grade each O-line weekly.

At the end of week 6, before Keenum's debut, the Texans O-line was graded ahead of 11 teams in pass pro.

By the end of week 15 (game 14), Keenum's last start, the Texans pass pro had deteriorated further such that they only ranked ahead of 5 teams (cumultatively.)

In another word, Keenum's pass protection was at best, 6th worst in the league.
At worst, his pass protection might have been the worse.
(I don't know of a good way to separate his grades to determine between worst and 6th worst. )

The one definitive thing is that it was horrible.
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Old 05-22-2014   #142
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

Another way to prorate the sack numbers is per pass attempt, even though that still has a flaw.

Keenum was sacked 19 times in 253 pass attempts.
Luck was sacked 32 times in 570 pass attempts.

If we were to prorate, Keenum would have been sacked 42.8 times in 570 pass attempts.
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Old 05-22-2014   #143
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

My next point, also based on Bedard ' s analysis of QB's pressure, is that Keenum had made stride on avoiding sacks.

In his first game, he took 5 sacks (whether they are.justified or not) on 30 pass plays (25 pass attempts plus the 5 sacks; let's not count the time he took off and ran due to pressure.)

For the rest of his games, he took 14 sacks on 242 pass plays (228 attempts plus the 14 sacks.)

If he kept on his way of taking 5 sacks for every 30 pass plays, he would have ended up with 54 sacks altogether - if my calculation is correct.

So I don't understand the thought of regressing.
It looks to me like he was doing exactly what TK wanted him to do, which is to get rid of the ball, instead of trying to do too much.
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Old 05-22-2014   #144
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Luck got sacked 32 times in 16 games.
Keenum got sacked 19 times in less than 8 games.

So actually, prorated, Keenum was sacked more.
Sorry, I was referring to Luck's rookie season since people want to include Keenum as a rookie since he only had a year on the practice squad.

So Luck had 41 sacks for 246 yards (6 yards/sack) [credit to TK].

I think it becomes pretty obvious (especially if you look at the rest of TK's numbers) that Keenum made his sacks longer than everyone else did. No one else was close to 10 yards a sack in their first starts.

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To contrast, Andrew Luck was sacked 41 times for 246 yards. (6 yards/sack)

Henne, in his first 13 games (his sophomore season) was sacked 26 times for 176 yards. (2 yards/sack)

Nick Foles started 6 games as a rookie (drafted in the third) 20 sacks for 131 yards (6.55 yards/sack)

Undrafted Tony Romo started 10 games in his 4th season, 21 sacks 124 yards. (5.9 yards/sack)

Keenum, 19 for 201. (10 yards/sack).
I'm not saying Keenum can't be the guy for us, or at least a reasonable stop gap. But he has a lot more work to do than some seem to be saying.
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Old 05-22-2014   #145
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

Luck took 41 sacks on 627 pass attempts (668 pass plays).
That is also much fewer than Keenum's numbers prorated.

He did a good job, still.
But let's not forget about his INTS (rookie season.)

I don't argue that Luck had a good rookie season.
He did.
And he does better his second year, in my book, with a better O-line, and he was asked to do less.

He's a very good QB.
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Old 05-22-2014   #146
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

If anybody has some time before I do, I'd like to take a look at all the sacks he took.

For example, I took a quick "re-look" at the five sacks in the KC game.
They aren't all horrendous.

Most were on third down where throwing the ball away does the offense no good.

Unless he gives up FG position, loses the ball on a fumble trying to do too much, those sacks don't bother me.

Yes, he did some of the things I mentioned, but not at an alarming rate.

Basically, for a first time starter, IMHO, Keenum played a smaller part in losing games for the Texans.
If I was to divide the "blames" (taking into account the importance of the QB'S role), I still think Keenum was less of a problem than pretty much all other facets of the team, with a very few exceptions individually.

I'm not sold on Keenum being the guy either, but I do believe that he can be at least, a very good backup.
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Old 05-22-2014   #147
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Luck got sacked 32 times in 16 games.
Keenum got sacked 19 times in less than 8 games.

So actually, prorated, Keenum was sacked more.

But my point about all sacks not being equal was supposed to be meant in a different way.
It's going to be hard to elaborate, but at least, let me try to start.
Let me try to explain my "grading system"

Andrew Luck was sacked 32 times in 16 games. Nobody cares because the team he led won 11 games.

Case Keenum was sacked 19 times in 8 games. Nobody cares because his team won 0 games.

It's a team sport & all that, but the QB is the leader. Not that it's his fault that we lost 8 games, but they're sure as heck blaming him for not winning 1. Especially when so many of them were so close.

Yeah, Bullock missed that field goal which would have propped Keenum up to Tom Brady status. It sux, but that's the way it goes.
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Old 05-24-2014   #148
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

When Keenum was allowed some poetic license, and still had some pieces to work with.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=eMhdXZAi6cI
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Old 05-24-2014   #149
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
When Keenum was allowed some poetic license, and still had some pieces to work with.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=eMhdXZAi6cI
Yeah, Case Keenum gave'em hell in the first half... sometimes even into the third qtr. if I were brought in as the head coach of that team, I could see improving the run game to help close out games.

Improve that LG position, upgrade at TE & FB... um-hmm....


Championship.
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Old 05-24-2014   #150
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Schaub, in his worst season ever, won two games. He took 21 sacks for 162 yards.

As a first time starter, Schaub only took 16 sacks for 126 yards, finished with an 87.2 passer rating, & he punished teams for blitzing him.
If Shaub can run backwards as fast as Case could I'm sure those sack loss would be much higher.
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Old 05-24-2014   #151
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If Shaub can run backwards as fast as Case could I'm sure those sack loss would be much higher.

If Case could read a blitz as fast as Schaub could I'm sure those sacks would've been much less.
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Old 05-24-2014   #152
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If Case could read a blitz as fast as Schaub could I'm sure those sacks would've been much less.
If Case could read a blitz as fast as Schaub there would be more pick 6s.
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Old 05-24-2014   #153
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

Im all for Case, but reality is he did struggle vs the blitz and never really seemed to improve. Seeing a hot read and making the throw in an all out blitz is vital in the nfl and he never seemed to be able to do it. We will see what happens under BOB. Good luck to all the qbs, we need someone to step up!
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Old 05-24-2014   #154
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Let me try to explain my "grading system"

Andrew Luck was sacked 32 times in 16 games. Nobody cares because the team he led won 11 games.

Case Keenum was sacked 19 times in 8 games. Nobody cares because his team won 0 games.

It's a team sport & all that, but the QB is the leader. Not that it's his fault that we lost 8 games, but they're sure as heck blaming him for not winning 1. Especially when so many of them were so close.

Yeah, Bullock missed that field goal which would have propped Keenum up to Tom Brady status. It sux, but that's the way it goes.
I'm sure all the guys like Bradshaw, Tarkenton, Elway, Fouts, Eli, et al are glad that their coaches didn't have the same grading system you do, TK.
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Old 05-24-2014   #155
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Im all for Case, but reality is he did struggle vs the blitz and never really seemed to improve. Seeing a hot read and making the throw in an all out blitz is vital in the nfl and he never seemed to be able to do it. We will see what happens under BOB. Good luck to all the qbs, we need someone to step up!

Was he even allowed to make hot reads and adjustments?
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Old 05-24-2014   #156
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

I will give credit to UH and Case Keenum fans, y'all have a lot of capacity for hope.

If he is the guy to lead us, then I wish him all the luck in the world. If he's not... eh. Nothing lost for me.
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Old 05-24-2014   #157
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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Im all for Case, but reality is he did struggle vs the blitz and never really seemed to improve. Seeing a hot read and making the throw in an all out blitz is vital in the nfl and he never seemed to be able to do it. We will see what happens under BOB. Good luck to all the qbs, we need someone to step up!
All young QBs starting for the first time in the NFL need some work in certain aspects of their game.

Think of the 18 INTs Luck threw his rookie year.
And I've mentioned I noted at least five should have been INTS and 5 near misses or so in his gist six games (I didn't watch the rest of his games in detail so I don't know whether there were other drops and/or near-misses.)

Wilson, on the other hand, needed to make plays often with his feet. Some of those occasions were because he didn't make the correct reads in order to get the ball out on time.

Even veterans miss their reads at times.
Schaub for example, missed some CB blitzes that resulted in sacks.
If I remember correctly, he got hurt on one of those occasions.
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Old 05-24-2014   #158
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Was he even allowed to make hot reads and adjustments?

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=105153
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Old 05-24-2014   #159
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

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I will give credit to UH and Case Keenum fans, y'all have a lot of capacity for hope.

If he is the guy to lead us, then I wish him all the luck in the world. If he's not... eh. Nothing lost for me.
Hey, I also said pre-draft that I have no problem taking JFF in the third.
If not for off - the field question mark, I would have taken him in the second.
Then, I was even willing to take him at 2.1

I like him as a QB; however his style of play has a good percentage of getting him hurt and he might not be able to adjust to play within the pocket with as great proficiency as he did in college.

Those are the risks I would rather not take in the first round.

If I was a coach and/or GM, I would hope that either Keenum or Savage can play up to a certain level of proficiency so I can use a future first round on an offensive weapon or to build the O-line.

There are many ways to skin a cat.
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Old 05-24-2014   #160
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Default Re: Keenum, is this another case of Chris Myers and KJax?

So, who's all for waiting for training camp and pre-season to sort all this out? Anyone?

Then again, what's the fun in that?
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