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View Poll Results: Thumbs up or down on Tom Savage at 4.135
Up 112 83.58%
Down 22 16.42%
Voters: 134. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-17-2014   #241
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

disclaimer: tired as hell

just watched Pitt vs ND tape from last year & have to say Tom reminds me a little of Joe Montana. Early developmental years. Better velocity than he appears, pure pocket passer but has presence in the pocket flashing ability to move & extend plays. Joe was something like 6-2 205 coming out of College while Tom is listed 6-4 228 (does not look it). Joe was taken in 3rd Tom in 4th. OB is a huge plus for putting him on a fast track. Too early but does posses makings of a franchise QB.
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Old 05-18-2014   #242
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

I found this blog, which provides a "mathematical" argument as to why Tom Savage won't be any good.
Quote:
And history has not been kind at all to fourth rounders (Savage's round). Below are all of the quarterbacks chosen in the fourth round since 2001, along with their records as starters and statistical performance. Please note that all of these quarterbacks were taken prior to the 135th pick (Savage's slot):

TOTALS: 367 games played, 217 starts (92-125), 4363-7362, 48561 yds, 271 TD/217 INT
WIN %: .424 win percentage (6.78 wins per season)
TOTAL QB RATING: 78.94

Fairly hideous.

In fact, of the 12 quarterbacks chosen in the fourth round, the closest thing to full-time starters that were developed were David Garrard and Kyle Orton. That's your gold standard. Fool's gold, indeed.

Fairly logical argument.... right?

So I was wondering if you took those stats from all the QBs drafted in the first round, how would they compare? I'm too lazy to compile the stats myself, but I was hoping one of you stat junkies wouldn't mind lending a hand. I did get a list of all the 1st rounders though....

2001: Michael Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Bollar, Rex Grossman
2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman (Shaub was taken in the 3rd round of this draft, Luke McCown in the 4th)
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (Matt Cassell & Ryan Fitzpatrick were taken in the 7th round of this draft)
2006: Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler
2007: Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quin
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbart, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
2012: Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013: Ej Manuel

Lot of 1st round QBs taken since 2001. That's going to be a whole lot of work. Thank you in advance.
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Old 05-18-2014   #243
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I found this blog, which provides a "mathematical" argument as to why Tom Savage won't be any good.

Fairly logical argument.... right?

So I was wondering if you took those stats from all the QBs drafted in the first round, how would they compare? I'm too lazy to compile the stats myself, but I was hoping one of you stat junkies wouldn't mind lending a hand. I did get a list of all the 1st rounders though....

2001: Michael Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Bollar, Rex Grossman
2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman (Shaub was taken in the 3rd round of this draft, Luke McCown in the 4th)
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (Matt Cassell & Ryan Fitzpatrick were taken in the 7th round of this draft)
2006: Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler
2007: Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quin
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbart, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
2012: Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013: Ej Manuel

Lot of 1st round QBs taken since 2001. That's going to be a whole lot of work. Thank you in advance.


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Old 05-18-2014   #244
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I found this blog, which provides a "mathematical" argument as to why Tom Savage won't be any good.

Fairly logical argument.... right?

So I was wondering if you took those stats from all the QBs drafted in the first round, how would they compare? I'm too lazy to compile the stats myself, but I was hoping one of you stat junkies wouldn't mind lending a hand. I did get a list of all the 1st rounders though....

2001: Michael Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Bollar, Rex Grossman
2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman (Shaub was taken in the 3rd round of this draft, Luke McCown in the 4th)
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (Matt Cassell & Ryan Fitzpatrick were taken in the 7th round of this draft)
2006: Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler
2007: Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quin
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbart, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
2012: Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013: Ej Manuel

Lot of 1st round QBs taken since 2001. That's going to be a whole lot of work. Thank you in advance.
I've just started. I forgot to get the years vs. starts vs. games played info. smh.

But basically, an average 1st round QB gives you:

* A 51% win percentage
* A 59.7% completion percentage
* 13500 yards
* 81 TDs
* 57 INTs

That's basically Josh Freeman's career so far with a slightly better completion percentage.
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Old 05-18-2014   #245
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
And history has not been kind at all to fourth rounders (Savage's round).
WIN %: .424 win percentage (6.78 wins per season)
TOTAL QB RATING: 78.94
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
But basically, an average 1st round QB gives you:

* A 51% win percentage
So a first rounder, on average, would give you 2 additional wins??



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Old 05-18-2014   #246
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post

So a first rounder, on average, would give you 2 additional wins??



Well, no.

51% of a 16 game season is 8.16 wins. 6.78 is damned close to 7 and when you don't round the numbers, you end up with a massive 1.38 win difference.
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Old 05-18-2014   #247
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
Well, no.

51% of a 16 game season is 8.16 wins. 6.78 is damned close to 7 and when you don't round the numbers, you end up with a massive 1.38 win difference.
We went through a similar exercise when evaluating Keenum's first year. Where these players ultimately end up tends to be directly influenced/determined by how much persistence in time and effort along with patience an organization is willing to invest in a player to see him through the sometimes painful but necessary developmental phase.
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Old 05-18-2014   #248
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I found this blog, which provides a "mathematical" argument as to why Tom Savage won't be any good.

Fairly logical argument.... right?

So I was wondering if you took those stats from all the QBs drafted in the first round, how would they compare? I'm too lazy to compile the stats myself, but I was hoping one of you stat junkies wouldn't mind lending a hand. I did get a list of all the 1st rounders though....

2001: Michael Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Bollar, Rex Grossman
2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman (Shaub was taken in the 3rd round of this draft, Luke McCown in the 4th)
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (Matt Cassell & Ryan Fitzpatrick were taken in the 7th round of this draft)
2006: Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler
2007: Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quin
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbart, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
2012: Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013: Ej Manuel

Lot of 1st round QBs taken since 2001. That's going to be a whole lot of work. Thank you in advance.
TK, I'm not crunching meaningless numbers either. You can look at Warner/Romo (UDFAs), Brady a sixth to Ryan Lief and everywhere in between. It will come down to the individual, his learning capacity and work effort along with being able to absorb excellent coaching which will be right there.

It will be what it will be and is as unpredictable as SE Texas weather.

All we can do is wait and see. And hope.
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Old 05-20-2014   #249
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

One-on-one instruction benefits Texans rookie QB Savage
Quote:
"You really do start from square one," Godsey said. "You assume (Savage) knows nothing. It's almost like you're a foreign language teacher. This is a brand-new system for him. The vernacular is different, and the way we call certain things, the terms we use, may be totally different. It's difficult for any of these (rookies), but it's especially true for a quarterback because he needs to learn all 22 positions on the field."
...
"It's a brand-new environment," Godsey said. "He's got to get comfortable with a lot of things … like new shoes … who his teammates are … the wind … how we practice. Football players learn from their mistakes. He needed all the reps he got. A rookie is always playing catch-up."
...
Of Tom Savage's performance in rookie minicamp, quarterbacks coach George Godsey said, "I think he's taken to what we've given him."
...
"You don't want to overwhelm him with so many things he can't focus on one thing," Godsey said. "We worked on technique in a certain periods, reads in another. We try to hit all the main points. And I think he's taken to what we've given him. He's gone out there and executed the plays. There haven't been too many re-dos. There's things he can get better at, but I will say he's putting a lot of time into it, and I appreciate him doing that.

"Tom himself will determine how long it takes him to catch up (to the other quarterbacks). There are only so many hours in the day, but you've got to put in the time, and he seems willing to do that. Every quarterback that's here right now is going against himself, trying to absorb as much information as possible and doing the best they can do. It's really not a looking-over-the-shoulder kind of deal for any of them."
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Old 05-21-2014   #250
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Listening to John Harris on HT.com sounds like he thinks Savage is projected to start ASAP.

ASAP being dependent on how well he learns the playbook.
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Old 05-22-2014   #251
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I found this blog, which provides a "mathematical" argument as to why Tom Savage won't be any good.

Fairly logical argument.... right?

So I was wondering if you took those stats from all the QBs drafted in the first round, how would they compare? I'm too lazy to compile the stats myself, but I was hoping one of you stat junkies wouldn't mind lending a hand. I did get a list of all the 1st rounders though....

2001: Michael Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Bollar, Rex Grossman
2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman (Shaub was taken in the 3rd round of this draft, Luke McCown in the 4th)
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (Matt Cassell & Ryan Fitzpatrick were taken in the 7th round of this draft)
2006: Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler
2007: Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quin
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbart, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
2012: Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013: Ej Manuel

Lot of 1st round QBs taken since 2001. That's going to be a whole lot of work. Thank you in advance.
Eating ice cream does not cause you to wear sandals.

None of this takes into account the teams that the players went to, who made the picks, the talent and system around the players, how many head coaches they had, whether or not they were developed correctly....

For example a lot of the QBs on that list were taken by teams that didn't have much around them and historically have struggled to find an answer. If you are looking for the success of picks... and it would be a monumental task, I would look at who has made picks over the last x number of years and what their overall productivity has been.

Mike
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Old 05-22-2014   #252
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
Listening to John Harris on HT.com sounds like he thinks Savage is projected to start ASAP.

ASAP being dependent on how well he learns the playbook.
That's pretty much what I've been expecting. I've said it before that I think Savage was the #2 guy on their QB board and the guy they were targeting pretty much the entire way.
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Old 05-22-2014   #253
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
That's pretty much what I've been expecting. I've said it before that I think Savage was the #2 guy on their QB board and the guy they were targeting pretty much the entire way.
With Texian's man love Bortels being the first?
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Old 05-22-2014   #254
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
Listening to John Harris on HT.com sounds like he thinks Savage is projected to start ASAP.

ASAP being dependent on how well he learns the playbook.
I doubt being a reporter for the Texans carries the weight of coaching for the Texans.\

I gathered a fairly different view from Harris' comments. I thought he left it wide open for Savage to fail, rather than succeed.
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Old 05-22-2014   #255
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by drs23 View Post
With Texian's man love Bortels being the first?
Unfortunately.... yes.

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Old 05-22-2014   #256
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Chris Simms, former NFL QB and scout with the Patriots thinks Tom Savage was the best QB prospect in the 2014 draft. Only questions for him were around off the field questions regarding his transferring/attending 3 different schools.
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Old 05-22-2014   #257
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
That's pretty much what I've been expecting. I've said it before that I think Savage was the #2 guy on their QB board and the guy they were targeting pretty much the entire way.
I don't buy it for a minute. Bridgewater falls to 33 and he's a Texan. Also, if he's your #2, why wait till the tail end of round 4 to lock him up?
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Old 05-22-2014   #258
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Quote:
Originally Posted by disaacks3 View Post
I don't buy it for a minute. Bridgewater falls to 33 and he's a Texan. Also, if he's your #2, why wait till the tail end of round 4 to lock him up?
Just because he was #2 on their board (not saying he was or wasn't) doesn't mean they had to take him in the first, second, or third round. If he was #2 on their board and they did take him in the 4th round, that could tell you what they really thought about this QB class (which is about what I thought.. Extremely mediocre, overhyped, and not much drop off from 1st drafted to those drafted in lower rounds). Anyways I'm glad they didn't take Bridgewater.
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Old 05-22-2014   #259
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

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Originally Posted by Carr Bombed View Post
Just because he was #2 on their board (not saying he was or wasn't) doesn't mean they had to take him in the first, second, or third round. If he was #2 on their board and they did take him in the 4th round, that could tell you what they really thought about this QB class (which is about what I thought.. Extremely mediocre, overhyped, and not much drop off from 1st drafted to those drafted in lower rounds). Anyways I'm glad they didn't take Bridgewater.
this


well, except I didn't really had an opinion about the QB class, since I couldn't follow college games
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Old 05-22-2014   #260
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Default Re: Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB

Has it ever been confirmed that the Texans would have picked Bridgewater at 33?

I know it's assumed, especially by the Vikings front office, but I was just wondering if the Texans ever said anything official.

Looking back at the very few words from O'Brien before the draft, you could surmise that they never intended to take a QB very high but always planned on getting one of them in later rounds.
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