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Old 03-15-2014   #1
Beer and Metal
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Default Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

With some of the recent movements by other teams, do you think we could get extra draft picks this year by trading down?
It's a deep draft. I'm thinking I'd rather get extra picks than a high overall.

Would the Browns give us their 1-26 and 3-19 for the 1-1? Would then, another team a few spots down give us their 2nd round pick?
Could we then package our 5-1 and 6-1 for a mid 4th rd pick?

If so, we could have 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 2 fourths, a fifth(comp) and a seventh. We could possibly have 9 picks before the end of the 5th round. (I know I'm dreaming, but that's why it says hypothetical in the title)

What would be your ideal trade down scenario?
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Old 03-15-2014   #2
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

That would be a terrible trade for the Texans. Only getting a mid 3rd rounder to move 25 spots. Regardless of who your guy is at the top the talent drop off from 1:1 to 1:26 is more valuable than a 3rd.
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Old 03-15-2014   #3
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

For me it's Teddy Bridgewater at 1.1 unless we're offered some kind of no doubt about it trade like Washington gave St. Louis a couple years ago, three 1st round picks and a 2nd if I remember correctly.
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Old 03-15-2014   #4
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beer and Metal View Post
With some of the recent movements by other teams, do you think we could get extra draft picks this year by trading down?
It's a deep draft. I'm thinking I'd rather get extra picks than a high overall.

Would the Browns give us their 1-26 and 3-19 for the 1-1? Would then, another team a few spots down give us their 2nd round pick?
Could we then package our 5-1 and 6-1 for a mid 4th rd pick?

If so, we could have 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 2 fourths, a fifth(comp) and a seventh. We could possibly have 9 picks before the end of the 5th round. (I know I'm dreaming, but that's why it says hypothetical in the title)

What would be your ideal trade down scenario?
By the numbers
Texans 1-1 3000

Browns 1-26 700
Browns 3-19 175

Lets see, 3000 vs 875. Uh, NO!

What do they have that would be more favorable?
Browns 1-4 1800
Browns 1-26 700
Browns 2-35 540
Total 3040

Throw in the Texans 5-129 43 and I think we have a winner at 3040 for 3043.

That would leave us with:
1-4 1800
1-26 700
2-33 580
2-35 540
3-65 265
4-97 112
6-161 27
7-193 14.2

Or better yet:
Browns 1-4 1800
Browns 1-26 700
Browns 2015 1st 420
Browns 4-122 50
Browns 6-165 25.4
Total 2995.4

Leaving us with:
1-4 1800
1-26 700
2-33 580
3-65 265
4-97 112
4-122 50
5-129 43
6-161 27
6-165 25.4
7-193 14.2
Browns 2015 1st 420
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Old 03-15-2014   #5
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Good breakdown Marshall Dillon
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Old 03-15-2014   #6
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

I don't see the Browns trading up.
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Old 03-15-2014   #7
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

The question would be, who wants to trade up for whom? Clowney is the big name, but I don't see anyone in the top 8 giving up the farm for him. The QBs are close. So are the OTs. I don't see a huge market for the #1 pick. If the Texans could get a 2nd from Atlanta, for instance, that would be worth it. Not on the value chart, but in this draft. The Texans could still land one of the QBs or Mack. The top of the 2nd round should still contain 1st round talent. I just don't know how much ATL wants to move up, if at all.
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Old 03-15-2014   #8
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
The question would be, who wants to trade up for whom? Clowney is the big name, but I don't see anyone in the top 8 giving up the farm for him. The QBs are close. So are the OTs. I don't see a huge market for the #1 pick. If the Texans could get a 2nd from Atlanta, for instance, that would be worth it. Not on the value chart, but in this draft. The Texans could still land one of the QBs or Mack. The top of the 2nd round should still contain 1st round talent. I just don't know how much ATL wants to move up, if at all.
This is my thought as well.

As an added benefit if they take Mack or one of the QBs at Atlanta's spot there will be fewer howls of outrage about expectations of 1.1, not drafting LBs at 1.1, QBs not being 1.1 worthy, etc. all of which is meaningless .01 seconds after the pick is made but nonetheless.
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Old 03-15-2014   #9
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
By the numbers
Texans 1-1 3000

Browns 1-26 700
Browns 3-19 175

Lets see, 3000 vs 875. Uh, NO!

What do they have that would be more favorable?
Browns 1-4 1800
Browns 1-26 700
Browns 2-35 540
Total 3040

Throw in the Texans 5-129 43 and I think we have a winner at 3040 for 3043.

That would leave us with:
1-4 1800
1-26 700
2-33 580
2-35 540
3-65 265
4-97 112
6-161 27
7-193 14.2

Or better yet:
Browns 1-4 1800
Browns 1-26 700
Browns 2015 1st 420
Browns 4-122 50
Browns 6-165 25.4
Total 2995.4

Leaving us with:
1-4 1800
1-26 700
2-33 580
3-65 265
4-97 112
4-122 50
5-129 43
6-161 27
6-165 25.4
7-193 14.2
Browns 2015 1st 420
Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
Earlier in the process , I would have wanted a kings ransom for the #1 overall , something like 4 , 26 , 68 + a future pick.

Now , after realizing what would be available to me , I'd still like that huge haul , but would settle for a bit less , maybe 4 & 26 or 4 , 35 & a future pick from Cleveland or something like 6 , 37 , 101 and a future pick from Atlanta.

None of those deals come close to what the Redskins gave to move up to #2 which was two #1's , a #2 and a future #1. to move 4(?) spots.
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Forget about "the numbers" Marshall, this is not that kind of Draft where there's a genuine prize like an Andy Luck or RGIII sitting at the top of the heap. As Corrosion says from another thread, basically getting ATLs 1.1 & 2.6 picks with maybe another mid rounder thrown in might be the best we can do.
While this is an excellent Draft with many more than usual blue-chip players, there's just not that bluest of blue-chips in the form of a slam-dunk franchise QB out there in 2014.
I'd still rather have this Draft for our top pick compared to last year when the Chiefs 1.1 brought them an OT who might not even be in the top 10, certainly not the top 5 this year.
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Old 03-15-2014   #10
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
The question would be, who wants to trade up for whom? Clowney is the big name, but I don't see anyone in the top 8 giving up the farm for him. The QBs are close. So are the OTs. I don't see a huge market for the #1 pick. If the Texans could get a 2nd from Atlanta, for instance, that would be worth it. Not on the value chart, but in this draft. The Texans could still land one of the QBs or Mack. The top of the 2nd round should still contain 1st round talent. I just don't know how much ATL wants to move up, if at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
This is my thought as well.

As an added benefit if they take Mack or one of the QBs at Atlanta's spot there will be fewer howls of outrage about expectations of 1.1, not drafting LBs at 1.1, QBs not being 1.1 worthy, etc. all of which is meaningless .01 seconds after the pick is made but nonetheless.
Atlanta is an interesting possibility. Check this out. So far Atlanta has signed or re-signed three DTs and one DE
Corey Peters, DT - re-signed
Paul Soliani, DT - from Miami
Jason Babineaux, DT - re-signed
Tyson Jackson, DE - from KC

They still have Jonathan Massaquoi and Osi Umenyiora at DE. Do they really need to trade up to make sure they get Clowney?
Maybe.
Both Umenyiora and Babineaux are 32 and Soliani is 30 so maybe adding some young blood into that D-line rotation might just be in order. Also they cut Asante Samuels (CB) and DeCoud (S), I believe both were starters. So maybe getting Clowney to step up the pass rush makes some sense for them to take pressure off the secondary.

Rick Smith ought make some inquires here. I would.
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Old 03-15-2014   #11
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

With Atlanta's FA moves it looks to me like they are gonna sit tight and take BPA at #6. If they trade up I think it's to beat STL for Robinson, but is the difference between Robinson and Matthews worth the trade?
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Old 03-15-2014   #12
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
With Atlanta's FA moves it looks to me like they are gonna sit tight and take BPA at #6. If they trade up I think it's to beat STL for Robinson, but is the difference between Robinson and Matthews worth the trade?
Considering their bigger need is at LT, arguably yes.
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Old 03-15-2014   #13
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
With Atlanta's FA moves it looks to me like they are gonna sit tight and take BPA at #6. If they trade up I think it's to beat STL for Robinson, but is the difference between Robinson and Matthews worth the trade?
Matthews looks to be a solid prospect, very much like his father who was a very durable OLineman who seemed to play forever and could play any position on the Oline. But remember, he wasn't a true "franchise LT". Now Robinson looks to have the "potential" to be a classic franchise LT in the mold of greats at the postion like Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden.
Of course it boils down to how the ATL decision makers feel, but they have been known to make big moves in the Draft like the Julio Jones trade of a couple years ago.
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Old 03-15-2014   #14
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Considering their bigger need is at LT, arguably yes.
There's the issue regarding our chances at a trade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
Matthews looks to be a solid prospect, very much like his father who was a very durable OLineman who seemed to play forever and could play any position on the Oline. But remember, he wasn't a true "franchise LT". Now Robinson looks to have the "potential" to be a classic franchise LT in the mold of greats at the postion like Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden.
Of course it boils down to how the ATL decision makers feel, but they have been known to make big moves in the Draft like the Julio Jones trade of a couple years ago.
I agree with what you say about Robinson and Matthews.

The problem for us is that ATL made the Jones trade because they thought they were only one piece away and he was that piece. They were obviously right about him but they were wrong about their team. LT is probably their biggest need right now, but that isn't the only piece they need to contend again.
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Old 03-15-2014   #15
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
The problem for us is that ATL made the Jones trade because they thought they were only one piece away and he was that piece. They were obviously right about him but they were wrong about their team...
And then again they splashed "big" in 2013 free agency for same reason and misfired again. Dimitroff is a riverboat gambler... with great hair.
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Old 03-15-2014   #16
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
By the numbers
Texans 1-1 3000

Browns 1-26 700
Browns 3-19 175

Lets see, 3000 vs 875.
Sorry, I didn't phrase that correctly. What I meant to say was swap 1-1 for 1-4, 1-26 and their 2nd 3rd round pick.
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Old 03-15-2014   #17
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Our first and second rounders to the Falcons for their first, second, third, and 2015 second round pick. Would that bring ATL to agreeing on a deal ?
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Old 03-15-2014   #18
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
Our first and second rounders to the Falcons for their first, second, third, and 2015 second round pick. Would that bring ATL to agreeing on a deal ?
Scott Pioli is their new assistant GM, not going to trade picks away.

might have better shot with Tampa new GM Jason Licht, FYI
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Old 03-15-2014   #19
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
Scott Pioli is their new assistant GM, not going to trade picks away.

might have better shot with Tampa new GM Jason Licht, FYI
On paper the Bucs would appear to have enough talent to compete with anyone in the league but for one reason or another the team underachieved. The good news is it shouldn’t take long to turn things around. The most glaring hole on the depth chart may be at defensive end opposite Adrian Clayborn and there were only a handful of teams with fewer sacks this past season than Tampa Bay. Unfortunately there is a big drop-off at the position after Jadeveon Clowney of South Carolina, who will be long gone by this point.
http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php
Good idea BL, I may even toast it tonight with one of those Uinta Brewing Co. IPAs I've got coolin' in the fridg.
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Old 03-15-2014   #20
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Default Re: Hypothetical trade-down scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
On paper the Bucs would appear to have enough talent to compete with anyone in the league but for one reason or another the team underachieved. The good news is it shouldn’t take long to turn things around. The most glaring hole on the depth chart may be at defensive end opposite Adrian Clayborn and there were only a handful of teams with fewer sacks this past season than Tampa Bay. Unfortunately there is a big drop-off at the position after Jadeveon Clowney of South Carolina, who will be long gone by this point.
http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php
Good idea BL, I may even toast it tonight with one of those Uinta Brewing Co. IPAs I've got coolin' in the fridg.
wow, that would be sweet, big fan of their Dubhe Imperial Black IPA
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