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Old 03-20-2014   #1
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Default Difficulty in Identifying a QB for NFL Success

This gets discussed quite a bit; but here is a recent article on the subject.

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But most of the teams that pick a quarterback early in this year's draft should know there's a probability their bet won't come through. Of the 137 quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds of the draft since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only 54 (39.4 percent) turned out to be five-year starters, according to Pro Football Reference.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/sto...re-high-stakes
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Old 03-20-2014   #2
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Default Re: Difficulty in Identifying a QB for NFL Success

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Originally Posted by Runner View Post
This gets discussed quite a bit; but here is a recent article on the subject.



http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/sto...re-high-stakes
I think the fallacy is looking at the round & saying a QB will be successful if he's taken in this round, or that. Players are drafted depending on the other players in the draft & the needs of the teams picking.

Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round, because the Patriots weren't looking for a QB. That's not to say he would have graded differently, but the Patriots evaluation of him wouldn't have changed. Maybe they had Bulger or Pennington graded higher, maybe they would have grabbed on of them instead & Brady went undrafted... Maybe they would have taken their OT in the first round, then Brady in the second.

If the Patriots were looking for a QB in 2011, Maybe they take Dalton in the first (17 overall), maybe they take Mallet in the first with that 17th pick.

Most of the QBs going in the later rounds aren't looking for QBs. They sit around with no playing time, their skills erode & they're forgotten. The deck is stacked against them differently than a QB taken in the first round, so I think it's more important to look at the team & situation he was drafted into.

Russel Wilson benefitted from a very open minded coach with a big pair of brass balls.

Dalton got lucky that Carson Palmer pitched a fit.

Kaepernick benefitted from a new coach & a great defense.
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Old 03-20-2014   #3
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Default Re: Difficulty in Identifying a QB for NFL Success

To many teams reach for a QB because they need one IMO . In this draft I think there is two elite prospects that have size and athleticism off the chart and neither play QB .

I think you can't screw up the #1 overall pick if you want to get back to the playoffs . It's not like the Texans just need a few layers either so trade down or pick the best prospect ,
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Old 03-20-2014   #4
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Default Re: Difficulty in Identifying a QB for NFL Success

common thread I see is relationship that develops between player & his coach. trust & confidence on a reasonable, goal driven time line (everyone is different). Carroll brought out the best in Wilson on exceptionally fast time line, same with Harbaugh w/Kaepernick. there was even a time when relationship between Schaub & Kubiak looked promising, until broken foot & inability to make adjustments, ending (both?) careers for Texans.

Haven't made up my mind of best fit for Bill O'Brian even though it seems between Bridgewater & Bortles don't rule out Johnny Manziel. Whoever Bill favors will be the selection, no arguments from anyone because it will all be on him & his ability to brew trust & confidence on a structured, goal driven pathway to becoming franchise QB for Texans.
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Old 03-20-2014   #5
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Default Re: Difficulty in Identifying a QB for NFL Success

An Insider's Guide to Scouting Quarterbacks
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I started my scouting career in 1981 working part time for the Buffalo Bills. In the 33 years since, I have found that evaluating quarterbacks can be one of the most difficult jobs a scout can do. With there being varied opinion on the top quarterbacks in this class, I thought that this was as good a time as ever to visit this topic.

Evaluating a quarterback can look easy, but there is so much more than just looking at stats. The college game is very different than the pro game. The vast majority of college offenses are some form of a spread offense, where the quarterback reads only half the field on a given play. What looks complex can be very simple when compared to what a quarterback is asked to do once he gets to the NFL.

Where is the starting point? That is a good question, and I'm sure it varies from scout to scout. One of the first things I look for is...
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