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Old 02-09-2014   #21
Honoring Earl 34
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

The early QB bust is easy to explain IMO .

Everyone wants a 6'4 235 lb big armed QB from a powerhouse conference . The problem is some of these guys had a ton of talent around them and didn't have to deal with adversity . Some played in a stat friendly offense and had inflated numbers and their warts weren't exposed . Some look good on a BMW billboard bring their dad to practice and were 5th year seniors with one good year in a lesser conference .

Some of the better QBs ( Brady , Brees , Rogers ) play with a chip on their shoulder because they felt slighted . That's the guys you're looking for , the ultra competitive guy who is charismatic enough to lead a team . If he's 6'4 then that's icing on the cake .
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Old 02-09-2014   #22
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Originally Posted by disaacks3 View Post
Of course, an easier statistical analysis reveals that if the Texans take a QB at #1, he's likely to be a bust.
Ouch!
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Old 02-09-2014   #23
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
Here's the raw data going all the way back to 1980; why don't you slice and dice it....
LINK
Man they don't make first overall picks like they did in the '80s anymore do they...? The success rate seems to be worse and worse and the decades progress...

1980 Billy Sims* RB Oklahoma Detroit Lions Heisman Trophy (1978)
Pro Bowl (1980, 1981, 1982)[46]
Rookie of the Year (1980)
1981 George Rogers* RB South Carolina New Orleans Saints Heisman Trophy (1980)
Pro Bowl (1981, 1982)[47]
Super Bowl champion (XXII)[48]
Rookie of the Year (1981)
1982 Kenneth Sims DE Texas New England Patriots
1983 John Elway[A 8] QB Stanford Baltimore Colts Pro Bowl (1986, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998)[49]
Pro Football Hall of Fame (2004)[49]
Super Bowl champion (XXXII, XXXIII)[50][51]
Super Bowl MVP (XXXIII)[49]
NFL MVP (1987)[49]
1984 Irving Fryar* WR Nebraska New England Patriots Pro Bowl (1985, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997)[52]
1985 Bruce Smith DE Virginia Tech Buffalo Bills Pro Bowl (1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998)[53]
Pro Football Hall of Fame (2009)[53]
1986 Bo Jackson*[A 10] RB Auburn Tampa Bay Buccaneers[A 11] Heisman Trophy (1985)
Pro Bowl (1990)[54]
1987 Vinny Testaverde* QB Miami (FL) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Heisman Trophy (1986)
Pro Bowl (1996, 1998)[55]
1988 Aundray Bruce LB Auburn Atlanta Falcons
1989 Troy Aikman QB UCLA Dallas Cowboys Pro Bowl (1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996)[56]
Pro Football Hall of Fame (2006)[56]
Super Bowl champion (XXVII, XXVIII, XXX)[57][58][59]
Super Bowl MVP (XXVII)[56]
1990 Jeff George QB Illinois Indianapolis Colts[A 12]
1991 Russell Maryland* DT Miami (FL) Dallas Cowboys Pro Bowl (1993)[60]
Super Bowl champion (XXVII, XXVIII, XXX)[57][58][59]
1992 Steve Emtman DT Washington Indianapolis Colts
1993 Drew Bledsoe* QB Washington State New England Patriots Pro Bowl (1994, 1996, 1997, 2002)[61]
Super Bowl champion (XXXVI)[62]
1994 Dan Wilkinson DT Ohio State Cincinnati Bengals
1995 Ki-Jana Carter RB Penn State Cincinnati Bengals
1996 Keyshawn Johnson* WR USC New York Jets Pro Bowl (1998, 1999, 2001)[63]
Super Bowl champion (XXXVII)[64]
1997 Orlando Pace* T Ohio State St. Louis Rams Pro Bowl (1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005)[65]
Super Bowl champion (XXXIV)[66]
1998 Peyton Manning* QB Tennessee Indianapolis Colts Pro Bowl (1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012)[67]
Super Bowl champion (XLI)[68]
Super Bowl MVP (XLI)[67]
NFL MVP (2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2013)[67]
1999 Tim Couch QB Kentucky Cleveland Browns
2000 Courtney Brown DE Penn State Cleveland Browns
2001 Michael Vick
* QB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons Pro Bowl (2002, 2004, 2005, 2010)[69]
2002 David Carr QB Fresno State Houston Texans Super Bowl champion (XLVI)[70]
2003 Carson Palmer* QB USC Cincinnati Bengals Heisman Trophy (2002)
Pro Bowl (2005, 2006)[71]
2004 Eli Manning*[A 13] QB Ole Miss San Diego Chargers Pro Bowl (2008, 2011, 2012)[72]
Super Bowl champion (XLII, XLVI)[70][73]
Super Bowl MVP (XLII, XLVI)[72]
2005 Alex Smith QB Utah San Francisco 49ers Pro Bowl (2013)
2006 Mario Williams* DE North Carolina State Houston Texans Pro Bowl (2008, 2009)[74]
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB LSU Oakland Raiders
2008 Jake Long* T Michigan Miami Dolphins Pro Bowl (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)[75]
2009 Matthew Stafford QB Georgia Detroit Lions
2010 Sam Bradford
QB Oklahoma St. Louis Rams Heisman Trophy (2008)
Rookie of the Year (2010)
2011 Cam Newton* QB Auburn Carolina Panthers Heisman Trophy (2010)
Pro Bowl (2011,2013)[76]
Rookie of the Year (2011)
2012 Andrew Luck* QB Stanford Indianapolis Colts Pro Bowl (2012, 2013)[77]
2013 Eric Fisher T CMU Kansas City Chiefs
Thanks
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Old 02-09-2014   #24
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honoring Earl 34 View Post
The early QB bust is easy to explain IMO .

Everyone wants a 6'4 235 lb big armed QB from a powerhouse conference . The problem is some of these guys had a ton of talent around them and didn't have to deal with adversity . Some played in a stat friendly offense and had inflated numbers and their warts weren't exposed . Some look good on a BMW billboard bring their dad to practice and were 5th year seniors with one good year in a lesser conference .

Some of the better QBs ( Brady , Brees , Rogers ) play with a chip on their shoulder because they felt slighted . That's the guys you're looking for , the ultra competitive guy who is charismatic enough to lead a team . If he's 6'4 then that's icing on the cake .
The last paragraph just described Brett Smith/Aaron Murray.
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Old 02-09-2014   #25
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Every QB the Texans have taken with the #1 overall pick has been a bust.... 1:1, 100%


Doppleganger: I appreciate the work you did there & I agree in so much that a 1st overall QB prospect is more likely to succeed than a 2nd or 3rd overall prospect.

That should be a no brainer.

However, what I don't agree with (& I believe everyone who is saying something other than QB at 1-1) is that the best QB prospect in a class is a 1st overall QB prospect.

Now I've seen some big boards where Bridgewater is the 5th best player in the draft, & if you feel that way, I agree. You should take him #1 overall.

I will probably never have a "big board" as I'll never get around to grading them all.

But personally I give Bridgewater a low 90 grade & to me that does not say #1 overall, especially when I give several others a comparable grade. If I only had the one QB with a 90 score, again, I agree, you have to take him. But I've got 6 QBs I grade a low 90 (yes, McCarron is one of them). 6 QBs that I would be happy with taking & have the same odds of "succeeding" in the NFL, & only expect 4 at most to be taken in the 1st round.

Right now, I only see 1 QB in this class that has enough "excitement" around him to draft #1 overall, but I believe a team only drafts that kind of excitement out of desperation.

Now, in the real world I would have access to these players. I would be able to sit down with each one of them, talk to them, get to know them. I would be able to talk to their coaches, their mentors, people who've worked with & helped develop them. It is possible that that kind of access can uncover something that will separate one from the 6... so I wouldn't be surprised if someone took one of these 1st overall.

But as it stands right now, I see no reason to take a QB that early in this draft.
Why would your "grades" mean anything at all when you admittedly don't even watch college football? Your "research" would consist of watching a couple of YouTube videos and maybe some of the gifs you see posted.
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Old 02-09-2014   #26
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

And the core issue is if any of the QBs in the draft this year truly rate as legitimate 1st overall picks. If one does, all things considered, he is most likely to have a 50/50 shot ( or slightly better) at being "successful." Once even getting past the mid-1st round, pretty much throwing do-do against the fan with any QB drafted.

people also, stop dropping tom Brady's name every time somebody rightly tells you that QBs are not found late in the draft. there are two, Tom Brady and Tony Romo, that are worth darn. a 6th round QB has less of a chance of being a career back-up than a high 1st round QB has of being good.
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Old 02-09-2014   #27
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
Good work man.

I've been saying for months that the chances of landing a quality QB drop significantly once you get outside the top 10 picks. Using a 1st round pick on a QB is the riskiest way to use it, but there is no better way to secure a quality QB than with a 1st round pick. Texans have to decide if the prospect is worth the risk. That's all it really comes down to.
Say the Texans take Clowney at 1 and one of the top 3 QB's fall to the 8-10 range, would you consider making a Julio Jones type trade and picking one of the QB's? I wouldn't do it but you could get the 2 most important positions in 1 draft (Pass Rusher/QB) and with the comp picks/FA you could fill in NT/RT/CB/S holes with the $$$$$ saved by cutting MS/OD/Newton etc......

2nd/3rd/5th
2015 1st
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Old 02-09-2014   #28
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Thunderkiss

However, what I don't agree with (& I believe everyone who is saying something other than QB at 1-1) is that the best QB prospect in a class is a 1st overall QB prospect.

Good point TKiss. I think a better way to do this would to be to use this formula with the first QB drafted each year. Not the number one pick. And so on.
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Old 02-09-2014   #29
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I think a better way to do this would to be to use this formula with the first QB drafted each year. Not the number one pick. And so on.
There are only 3 QB examples in the time period.

EJ Manuel - 16th - too soon.

Matt Ryan - 3rd - success.
Vince Young - 3rd - bust for non-football reasons.
Chad Pennington - 18th - I'd put him down as a success, but arguable.
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Old 02-09-2014   #30
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Let's say Manziel goes #1 to Browns and due to coaching and team makeup goes 2-14 and "fails". Let's say Manziel goes #1 to Texans but due to coaching and team makeup goes 14-2. Is it the player? Looking back in 10 years how would he fit the "statistics".
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Old 02-09-2014   #31
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doppelganger View Post
Preamble
I thought it would be fun to take a statistical look at the draft.

At the moment, Texans nation is split in their wish for the #1 overall pick. Some advocate taking one of the top 3 QBs (Bridgewater, Manziel, or Bortles) with the top selection. Others think that Clowney is too good to pass up and the Texans must select one of them. A third group feels that keeping the QB safe is the top priority and think taking an OT such as Robinson or Matthews is the proper way to go. There is a 4th group that advocates a trade down.

As such, Texans nation does have one thing they agree upon...the Texans need a new QB. The divergence of opinion is based on when should the Texans pull the trigger. Those in the take Clowney, Robinson, or Matthews camp believe that a QB can be had later in the draft or that the fail rate for 1st overall QBs is too high to risk on this pick and there are plenty of good QB options to be hand in the second or third round.

Method
I was curious what the numbers suggest. As such, I delved into this statistical analysis. The objective was to determine:

1. What is the relative success rate for QBs, DEs, and OTs selected #1 in the NFL draft vs the failure rate of the same positions.

2. What is the relative success rate for QBs, DEs, and OTs selected in the 2nd or 3rd round of the NFL draft vs the failure rate of the same positions.

3. Compare these rates together over a long enough point to help determine a trend.

For this analysis, I decided to set my NFL draft parameters as 2000-2012. It gives me 13 years worth of data, which should be a large enough sample size.


Definitions

1. Success. I am defining Success as a quality player. In my mind a quality player has to be one who is able to positively affect his team and help them to win games. A quality player is one who also positively contributes in some way on the field of play.

2. Failure. I am defining Failure as a subpar player. In my mind this player either was unable to positively affect play on the field, is out of the league, or was unable to get on the field.

Stats
I am using a simple statistical mean.

Results

1st Overall Picks

QB
Success:6/10=60%
Michael Vick (2001), Carson Palmer (2003), Eli Manning (2004), Matthew Stafford (2009), Cam Newton (2011), Andrew Luck (2012)

Fail: 4/10=40%
David Carr(2002), Alex Smith (2005), JaMarcus Russell (2007), Sam Bradford (2010)

DE:
Success:1/2=50%
Mario Williams(2006)
Fail: 1/2=50%
Courtney Brown (2000)

OT:
Good:1/3=33.3%
Jake Long (2008)
Bad: 2/3=66.66%
Robert Gallery (2004), Levi Brown (2007)

These numbers suggest that many QBs have been taken. That would make sense since it is such an important position. As such, a 60% success rate is quite good. DE is 50%, but only has 2 selections. OT has 3 overall and only a 33.33% success rate.

Now let's look at Rounds 2/3

2nd round/3rd round
QB
Success: 6/27=22%
6: Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson

Fail:21/27=78%

DE:
Success:25/51=49%
Fail: 26/51=51%

OT:
Success: 26/52=50%
Fail: 26/52=50%

I included the names of the success QBs for a reason. Look at the threshold of the term success. An argument can be made that even some of these guys should not be in the successful group, thus making it even smaller. What clearly stands out to me is the piss poor success rate for the 2nd/3rd round QBs. Whether its 22% or lower its horrendously bad. The success rate for OTs and DEs are remarkable similar: right around 50% which is a great number to have.

Conclusion
Based on my statistical analysis, I conclude that the notion that fail rate for 1st overall QBs is too high to risk on this pick does not bear out statistically. QBs taken with the overall #1 selection have a 60% success rate. The second conclusion is that there are simply not enough good QB options to be hand in the second or third round. In fact, it can even be argued that players like a Russell Wilson or Nick Foles, who may have in the past had imperfections in their draft profiles may go higher in subsequent years. Russell Wilson fell into the third round because he lacked ideal size. However, due to his success, a team is more likely to take a chance on someone else who resembles Wilson thus not allowing him to fall as much as he did. Thus, finding the next Russell Wilson becomes that much harder.

Therefore I conclude, statistically speaking, the best strategy is as follows:

1st overall Pick: Best QB prospect.
2nd round: Best OT or DE prospect.
3rd round: Best OT or DE prospect.

Thank you for taking the time to read this. Sometimes I go a little overboard and do not mean to write an entire essay, but I find i have a lot that I want to say. I understand that this is a message board where these is an opportunity of give and take...back and forth...discussion and counterpoint. I am aware that sometimes my posts can become long and cumbersome and for that I apologize. I sometimes get an idea and in order to explore it thoroughly it takes a little time and perhaps more characters than are warranted. But, as I said, thanks again for taking the time to read this.

I look forward to a spirited discussion on the matter!
Good research. I still think a trade down is preferable to any choice, but there seems to be a gap in your info between 1-1 and 2-1 or lower. But I may be misreading your data.
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Old 02-09-2014   #32
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

I believe that draft pick analysis like this is what I call flip flop/Ice cream analysis.

In Texas the amount of ice cream eaten increases 5x.
In Texas the number of flip flops worn increases 5x.

It is tempting to conclude that when you see a strong correlation that there is causality but the samples are not homogenous and there are other things that determine success of draft picks in the NFL.

What team they get picked by, talent they have around them, system they play in all figures into how successful a QB will be. For example, how frequently does the team that picked someone in the top 10 have a top 10 pick? Since 2006 if you look at each round in 1/3's (1-10,11-21,22-32 etc) there isn't much difference in their QBRs and the standard deviation is pretty consistent too. This means that the variance is similar as is the average which might indicate that the most likely difference is who is making the pick.

Look at Cassel, he has never played as well as he did the one year Brady got hurt. It isn't about where you pick someone, it is about who does the picking.

Mike
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Old 02-09-2014   #33
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texanmike02 View Post
I believe that draft pick analysis like this is what I call flip flop/Ice cream analysis.

In Texas the amount of ice cream eaten increases 5x.
In Texas the number of flip flops worn increases 5x.

It is tempting to conclude that when you see a strong correlation that there is causality but the samples are not homogenous and there are other things that determine success of draft picks in the NFL.

What team they get picked by, talent they have around them, system they play in all figures into how successful a QB will be. For example, how frequently does the team that picked someone in the top 10 have a top 10 pick? Since 2006 if you look at each round in 1/3's (1-10,11-21,22-32 etc) there isn't much difference in their QBRs and the standard deviation is pretty consistent too. This means that the variance is similar as is the average which might indicate that the most likely difference is who is making the pick.

Look at Cassel, he has never played as well as he did the one year Brady got hurt. It isn't about where you pick someone, it is about who does the picking.

Mike
Great post!
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Old 02-09-2014   #34
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texanmike02 View Post
I believe that draft pick analysis like this is what I call flip flop/Ice cream analysis.

In Texas the amount of ice cream eaten increases 5x.
In Texas the number of flip flops worn increases 5x.

It is tempting to conclude that when you see a strong correlation that there is causality but the samples are not homogenous and there are other things that determine success of draft picks in the NFL.

What team they get picked by, talent they have around them, system they play in all figures into how successful a QB will be. For example, how frequently does the team that picked someone in the top 10 have a top 10 pick? Since 2006 if you look at each round in 1/3's (1-10,11-21,22-32 etc) there isn't much difference in their QBRs and the standard deviation is pretty consistent too. This means that the variance is similar as is the average which might indicate that the most likely difference is who is making the pick.

Look at Cassel, he has never played as well as he did the one year Brady got hurt. It isn't about where you pick someone, it is about who does the picking.

Mike
what I said but you added ice cream, flip flops and homos.
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Old 02-09-2014   #35
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
Good research. I still think a trade down is preferable to any choice, but there seems to be a gap in your info between 1-1 and 2-1 or lower. But I may be misreading your data.
It's the best choice of all, but we won't find a trading partners because this years draft is without a single "franchise QB".
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Old 02-09-2014   #36
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Originally Posted by Texanmike02 View Post
I believe that draft pick analysis like this is what I call flip flop/Ice cream analysis.

In Texas the amount of ice cream eaten increases 5x.
In Texas the number of flip flops worn increases 5x.

It is tempting to conclude that when you see a strong correlation that there is causality but the samples are not homogenous and there are other things that determine success of draft picks in the NFL.

What team they get picked by, talent they have around them, system they play in all figures into how successful a QB will be. For example, how frequently does the team that picked someone in the top 10 have a top 10 pick? Since 2006 if you look at each round in 1/3's (1-10,11-21,22-32 etc) there isn't much difference in their QBRs and the standard deviation is pretty consistent too. This means that the variance is similar as is the average which might indicate that the most likely difference is who is making the pick.

Look at Cassel, he has never played as well as he did the one year Brady got hurt. It isn't about where you pick someone, it is about who does the picking.

Mike
Nice example of the Correlation vs Causation argument.
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Old 02-09-2014   #37
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

In 1992 the Colts had the 1st and 2nd pick in the draft .
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Old 02-09-2014   #38
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Nice example of the Correlation vs Causation argument.
Thx. I forgot to go back and complete the analogy...

In Texas flip-flop wearing goes up 5x in the summer.
In Texas ice cream eating goes up 5x in the summer.

The correlation coefficient is 1.0 which means there is a direct correlation between the number of flip flops worn and the amount of ice cream eaten so it would be easy to conclude that wearing flip flops causes people to be hungry for ice cream.

Obviously, there is a third factor that causes both (hell like heat).

Sorry I know most got it but figured I'd fill in the blanks.

The main point (in case I didn't make it clear) was that I don't care if we trade down or if we pick a QB. I want the right guy making that decision.

The QBR for the #1 overall pick would drop significantly if the Colts had taken Ryan Leaf instead of Manning. It wouldn't mean that spending a 1,1 on a QB is any more or less successful it would mean that the Colts screwed up.

I also think that the rookie salary slotting makes a huge difference too. It is pretty easy to argue that in the late 90's until the new CBA that having 1,1 was bad even if you didn't screw up because the salaries were so out of wack.

Here's an interesting fact:

Since NE took Bledsoe number 1 overall only Peyton Manning and Eli Manning have been picked #1 overall and won a superbowl with the team that they took their first snaps as a pro with. (Eli was traded but started playing for NY).

That is the last 20 years. Not sure that it means anything (and I expect it to change with the rookie salary changes).



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Old 02-09-2014   #39
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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What was the basis of your assessments of success?

Your subjective judgement or some statistical tool?

For example, Okoye, was a starter for us for many years but is widely considered by the knowledgable Texans fanbase as a huge bust.
Yes self judgment.
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Old 02-09-2014   #40
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Yes self judgment.
Thanks for the answer.
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