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Old 01-24-2014   #61
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
CnD, is his foot healed? Will it be better this year?

In your opinion does he have a physical thing or just a head thing ailing him?
From prior CnD discussions - Schaub's injury is healed. BUT it is the kind of injury which leaves the foot subject to fatigue over the course of a season with a degenerating recovery cycle. So to illustrate with numbers (totally made up), during offseason #1 he will get back to 95% and then as the season progresses go down to 50% then in offseason #2 he will get back to 90% and then as the season progresses go down to 45%, and so on. It isn't a new injury or a re-injury, it is just a degenerative state.
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Old 01-24-2014   #62
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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No one is asking him to renegotiate. We want him to take a pay cut. That salary you're talking about... knock it down from $10M to $4M. We add $6M to our cap.

We cut him after the season is over, designated as a June 1st cut. His cap hit for 2015 is only $3.5M. His cap hit for 2016 is $3.5M.

No need to cut him, then resign him. Not pushing anything into the future, that isn't already accounted for already in the future. We gain $13.5M towards our 2015 cap. We gain $15.5M towards our 2016 cap.


You want us to cut him, take the $10M hit, then pay him $4M for 2014. He'll still have the same $4M "cap hit" what would be the point?

We'd be better off to just let him play out his contract as is.
I never said pay him $4M. The only thing we could do to eliminate, rather than defer dead money is to renegotiate his contract to one year and take the hit in 2014. But that would still entail paying him $10.5M and whatever salary required for a veteran of his experience. I think the problem we have is about shifting the dead money. I'd take the hit in 2014 rather than shift it to the future.

But I'm a patient guy and many aren't. So spend spend spend and gripe in the future about lack of cap space. Even gripe about it being all Ricks fault for mismanaging the cap. It's what many do anyway.
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Old 01-24-2014   #63
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
I never said pay him $4M. The only thing we could do to eliminate, rather than defer dead money is to renegotiate his contract to one year and take the hit in 2014. But that would still entail paying him $10.5M and whatever salary required for a veteran of his experience. I think the problem we have is about shifting the dead money. I'd take the hit in 2014 rather than shift it to the future.
Not going to happen but they could knock his salary down to league min. for next season and leave everything else in place as is - they do not have to do a new 1 year deal.

Actually what they would be doing is eliminating the per game roster bonus next season which is what folks are citing as his salary.
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Old 01-24-2014   #64
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Not going to happen but they could knock his salary down to league min. for next season and leave everything else in place as is - they do not have to do a new 1 year deal.

Actually what they would be doing is eliminating the per game roster bonus next season which is what folks are citing as his salary.
Leaving his contract in place just defers $7M of his dead money. But we're just talking in circles now, so I give up. Just see what happens and if his contract remains in place, then I'll join the chorus that wants Rick gone for being incompetent.
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Old 01-24-2014   #65
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
CnD, is his foot healed? Will it be better this year?

In your opinion does he have a physical thing or just a head thing ailing him?
Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
From prior CnD discussions - Schaub's injury is healed. BUT it is the kind of injury which leaves the foot subject to fatigue over the course of a season with a degenerating recovery cycle. So to illustrate with numbers (totally made up), during offseason #1 he will get back to 95% and then as the season progresses go down to 50% then in offseason #2 he will get back to 90% and then as the season progresses go down to 45%, and so on. It isn't a new injury or a re-injury, it is just a degenerative state.
Cak has given a simplified yet pretty accurate summary of my previous analyses. To add to this, I would say that anyone who sees their body physically "degenerating" before their eyes will empirically suffer from degenerating confidence. Where the body goes, the "head" quickly follows. At one point in time, taking a chance on such a player, especially a QB who has never been considered "elite" to begin with, for even just a short stint will prove itself nothing but potentially catastrophic. I wouldn't touch Schaub now under any circumstances.
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Old 01-24-2014   #66
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
I never said pay him $4M. The only thing we could do to eliminate, rather than defer dead money is to renegotiate his contract to one year and take the hit in 2014. But that would still entail paying him $10.5M and whatever salary required for a veteran of his experience. I think the problem we have is about shifting the dead money. I'd take the hit in 2014 rather than shift it to the future.
This is where I get lost.

If we cut him, why do we have to pay him $10.5M?

If he plays under his current contract, we pay him $10.5M. His cap number would be $14.5M because of the $1M roster bonus & $3.5M pro-rated signing bonus.

If we cut him & take the full hit, $10.5M of dead money hits our cap because of money already paid to Schaub that hasn't been accounted for. $3.5M/yr for the remaining years (3) of the contract.

If we then sign him for vet minimum (which I believe is $1M) that will take away from the $4M we save by cutting him. 2014's cap is increased by $3M, but we gain $17M on the 2015 cap & $19M on the 2016 cap.

I said to pay him $4M. Renegotiate his current contract. Cut him in 2015. We then gain $6M for 2014...... we need as much as we can for 2014 if we're going to field a 53 man roster, regardless of whether we sign Jj in the future or not, we've got to field a team in 2014.

Doing it this way, we gain $6M towards the 2014 cap instead of the $4M by straight cutting Schaub. We would gain $14M on the 2015 cap & $16M on the 2016 cap.

If we make him a 2014 June 1st cut, we gain $11M in 2014, $10M in 2015, & $19M in 2016.

So, since we're playing chess now:
  1. Take the hit in 2014
    2014 +$4M, 2015 +$17M, 2016 +$19M
  2. June 1, 2014 cut
    2014 +$11M, 2015 +$10M, 2016 +$19M
  3. Renegotiate & cut June 1, 2015
    2014 +$6M, 2015 +$15M, 2016 +$16M

It's just my opinion, but if the main concern is freeing up money for Jj Watt, as the Texans I would pick up his 5th year & offer him a big contract in 2016 or franchise him in 2016. Making him a 2014 June 1st cut maximizes our cap in both 2014 & 2016.
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Old 01-24-2014   #67
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

What do you guys think, does Matt Schaub take the money & run or will he be willing to restructure (give back to lesson cap hit) & remain the Texans back-up QB? could be a win win... certainly he owes the franchise & the franchise owes him
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Old 01-24-2014   #68
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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What do you guys think, does Matt Schaub take the money & run or will he be willing to restructure (give back to lesson cap hit) & remain the Texans back-up QB? could be a win win... certainly he owes the franchise & the franchise owes him
I don't know.... if I had "fans" showing up at my house being ugly, & "fans" cheering when I get injured..... then got benched by a guy who can't read a blitz....

I'd take my chances elsewhere.
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Old 01-24-2014   #69
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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What do you guys think, does Matt Schaub take the money & run or...
He can't run.
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Old 01-24-2014   #70
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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I don't know.... if I had "fans" showing up at my house being ugly, & "fans" cheering when I get injured..... then got benched by a guy who can't read a blitz....

I'd take my chances elsewhere.
Winning solves everything but understand City is out on him. He could prove useful in back-up role only, not as a starter. Certainly better insurance than another Matt (Leinart).
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Old 01-24-2014   #71
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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He can't run.
your a cold dude
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Old 01-24-2014   #72
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
Cak has given a simplified yet pretty accurate summary of my previous analyses. To add to this, I would say that anyone who sees their body physically "degenerating" before their eyes will empirically suffer from degenerating confidence. Where the body goes, the "head" quickly follows. At one point in time, taking a chance on such a player, especially a QB who has never been considered "elite" to begin with, for even just a short stint will prove itself nothing but potentially catastrophic. I wouldn't touch Schaub now under any circumstances.
Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Not going to happen but they could knock his salary down to league min. for next season and leave everything else in place as is - they do not have to do a new 1 year deal.

Actually what they would be doing is eliminating the per game roster bonus next season which is what folks are citing as his salary.
In that case, do not want.
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Old 01-25-2014   #73
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
This is where I get lost.

If we cut him, why do we have to pay him $10.5M?

If he plays under his current contract, we pay him $10.5M. His cap number would be $14.5M because of the $1M roster bonus & $3.5M pro-rated signing bonus.

If we cut him & take the full hit, $10.5M of dead money hits our cap because of money already paid to Schaub that hasn't been accounted for. $3.5M/yr for the remaining years (3) of the contract.

If we then sign him for vet minimum (which I believe is $1M) that will take away from the $4M we save by cutting him. 2014's cap is increased by $3M, but we gain $17M on the 2015 cap & $19M on the 2016 cap.

I said to pay him $4M. Renegotiate his current contract. Cut him in 2015. We then gain $6M for 2014...... we need as much as we can for 2014 if we're going to field a 53 man roster, regardless of whether we sign Jj in the future or not, we've got to field a team in 2014.

Doing it this way, we gain $6M towards the 2014 cap instead of the $4M by straight cutting Schaub. We would gain $14M on the 2015 cap & $16M on the 2016 cap.

If we make him a 2014 June 1st cut, we gain $11M in 2014, $10M in 2015, & $19M in 2016.

So, since we're playing chess now:
  1. Take the hit in 2014
    2014 +$4M, 2015 +$17M, 2016 +$19M
  2. June 1, 2014 cut
    2014 +$11M, 2015 +$10M, 2016 +$19M
  3. Renegotiate & cut June 1, 2015
    2014 +$6M, 2015 +$15M, 2016 +$16M

It's just my opinion, but if the main concern is freeing up money for Jj Watt, as the Texans I would pick up his 5th year & offer him a big contract in 2016 or franchise him in 2016. Making him a 2014 June 1st cut maximizes our cap in both 2014 & 2016.
If we cut him, why do we have to pay him $10.5M?

Because he has $10.5M remaining dead money derived from his $14 signing bonus to account for ($3.5M was counted against the 2013 Cap). Currently, it would be divided between 2014, 2015 and 2016 @ $3.5M per year. If the player is cut normally, then all his remaining signing bonus is counted against the current years cap. In the case of Schaub, it would be $10.5M. The exception would be to make him a June 1 cut which then count $3.5M against 2014 and $7M against 2015. Essentially shifting $7M of a normal cut in 2014 ahead to 2015. The total cap hit remains the same. The hit is just shifted to different years.

Any change to his Base Salary and/or his Roster bonus must entail renegotiating his contract. But if cut, it all goes away. Nothing done there affects the dead money. Just additional money he could earn above dead money.

Not knowing the details, I assume there is no remaining guaranteed money outside of his signing bonus. (This is an area where litigation takes place. Is there a guarantee against injury and is this an injury related cut? That sort of thing)
[b]
If we then sign him for vet minimum (which I believe is $1M) that will take away from the $4M we save by cutting him. 2014's cap is increased by $3M, but we gain $17M on the 2015 cap & $19M on the 2016 cap.


Your on track here.

So, since we're playing chess now:
  1. Take the hit in 2014
    2014 +$4M, 2015 +$17M, 2016 +$19M
  1. Total Cap Savings
    2014 $14.5M minus $10.5M DM or $4m as you say
    2015 $13.5M 12.5M Salary plus $1M Roster or $13.5M ($3.5M was shifted to 2014)
    2016 $14.5M Salary plus $1M Roster or $15.5M ($3.5M was shifted to 2014)
    Total Cap Savings $30M

  2. June 1, 2014 cut
    2014 +$11M, 2015 +$10M, 2016 +$19M

    Total Cap Savings $30M

  3. Renegotiate & cut June 1, 2015
    2014 +$6M, 2015 +$15M, 2016 +$16M

    This is where your numbers get confused:
    There will be $3.5M dead money and at least $1M minimum Salary.
    The total Cap Savings will be reduced to $29M because of the $1M Salary.
    Being a June 1 2015 cut just moves $3.5M DM from 2015 to 2016 so your total savings of $37M is not accounted for properly. Something in your cap savings is counted twice.
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Old 01-25-2014   #74
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
If we cut him, why do we have to pay him $10.5M?

Because he has $10.5M remaining dead money derived from his $14 signing bonus to account for ($3.5M was counted against the 2013 Cap). Currently, it would be divided between 2014, 2015 and 2016 @ $3.5M per year. If the player is cut normally, then all his remaining signing bonus is counted against the current years cap.
Ok... I think it's a semantics thing. You're saying we would "pay" him, which isn't technically correct. That money is already paid to him, we just have to account for it on our cap.

What I'm saying, is if we cut him take the hit in 2014, then resign him, whatever salary we pay him will be in addition to the $10.5M dead money hit we're already taking for him. So instead of taking a $14M cap hit to let him play out his contract, we'll take at least an $11M cap hit to cut then resign him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
Any change to his Base Salary and/or his Roster bonus must entail renegotiating his contract. But if cut, it all goes away. Nothing done there affects the dead money. Just additional money he could earn above dead money.
Right... sorry, this is what I just said above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
So, since we're playing chess now:
  1. Take the hit in 2014
    2014 +$4M, 2015 +$17M, 2016 +$19M
  1. Total Cap Savings
    2014 $14.5M minus $10.5M DM or $4m as you say
    2015 $13.5M 12.5M Salary plus $1M Roster or $13.5M ($3.5M was shifted to 2014)
    2016 $14.5M Salary plus $1M Roster or $15.5M ($3.5M was shifted to 2014)
    Total Cap Savings $30M
  1. Right now Schaub counts for $17M against the 2015 cap, & $19M against the 2016 cap. If we take the full $10.5 dead money hit in 2014, the entire value of his contract comes off in 2015 & 2016

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
  2. June 1, 2014 cut
    2014 +$11M, 2015 +$10M, 2016 +$19M

    Total Cap Savings $30M

  3. Renegotiate & cut June 1, 2015
    2014 +$6M, 2015 +$15M, 2016 +$16M

    This is where your numbers get confused:
    There will be $3.5M dead money and at least $1M minimum Salary.
    The total Cap Savings will be reduced to $29M because of the $1M Salary.
    Being a June 1 2015 cut just moves $3.5M DM from 2015 to 2016 so your total savings of $37M is not accounted for properly. Something in your cap savings is counted twice.
Same reasoning as above. Click on the 2015 & 2016 tabs.... I'm not calculating these numbers in my head, these are their numbers. Go to the 2014 tab & click the submit button under cut, you can see how all the numbers change for the 2014, 2015, & 2016 cap.

Click unsubmit. Then select June 1st cut, see how the numbers change.
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Old 01-25-2014   #75
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

I don't really see the point of retaining Schuab unless O'Brien feels like the can make him serviceable for next year. Other than that his contract is going to be nothing short of an albatross for this franchise.

O'Brien might be familiar with Mallet but, what kind of real upgrade are we getting? And for what price tag? The draft pick wouldn't bother me much as what kind of contract we could be looking at.

Clowney at #1 bothers me for a player who I am not sure about his motor, but his measureables are through the roof. Reminds me of Mario Williams all over again. Also where do we play him and find him PT over Smith? So we draft a part time player at #1? Why?

I'm more of a Bridgewater guy. I think he's got it in between the ears more than any of the other prospects this year. If O'Brien likes Bortles better than go with him. Either way to me it's pretty clear this team needs to figure out the QB position long term.
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Old 01-25-2014   #76
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

Interesting tweets.

Quote:
Quote:
James Palmer ‏@JPalmerCSN Jan 22

Talking with several scouts & experts, all said Derek Carr is either most talented player at #SeniorBowl or will be 1st player there drafted
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Gus ‏@TheGustavoDiaz 2h

@JPalmerCSN no way the #Texans draft D.Carr hell no!!

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James Palmer ‏@JPalmerCSN 2h

@TheGustavoDiaz they said first player THERE (at the senior bowl) drafted. Not first player drafted.
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Old 01-26-2014   #77
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

My prediction: At the Combine interviews, Bill O'Brien falls in love with Bridgewater.
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Old 01-26-2014   #78
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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My prediction: At the Combine interviews, Bill O'Brien falls in love with Bridgewater.
I think that's a pretty good prediction! And, I hope it comes true!
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Old 01-26-2014   #79
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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Tom Brady won 3 Super Bowls as a game manager. He's won none since becoming "the GOAT"

Rothlisberger won his first SuperBowl as a game manager.

Flacco.... game manager.

There's nothing wrong with a game manager if he's got some plus ability. For Brady & Roethlisberger, it was their ability to extend plays & make plays downfield. Flacco was probably the best QB of the group when he won his first Super Bowl... more plays from the pocket.

Trent Dilfer & Brad Johnson were on the lower end of the spectrum when talking about "game managers."
OK. Yes, all QB's are game managers to some extent. But, the QB's I mentioned in my previous post are the one's I feel that are missing some of that "plus ability" you talked about, whether it's something physical or mental.
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Old 01-26-2014   #80
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Default Re: O達rien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants

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...I think he's (Bridgewater) got it in between the ears more than any of the other prospects this year. If O'Brien likes Bortles better than go with him. Either way to me it's pretty clear this team needs to figure out the QB position long term.
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My prediction: At the Combine interviews, Bill O'Brien falls in love with Bridgewater.
I don't know if this has been posted elsewhere, but this radio interview with Brett Kollmann is an excellant analysis of O'Brien's offense and what it requires of the QB.

http://houston.cbslocal.com/?podcast...id=CBS.HOUSTON
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