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Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

dalemurphy

dalemurphy

Hall of Fame
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
 
dalemurphy said:
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick.
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I appreciate your enthusiasm about polishing a turd, but the old saying "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" comes to mind....
 
It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.

So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
 
For the third time in franchise history, a new coach will be handed a #1 pick... hopefully 3rd time is the charm
 
IDEXAN said:
Atleast there's more talent than last year, if only marginally.
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Clowney is definitely a freak.
The question is whether a team is willing to take the risk concerning his character.
Does playing along side JJ Watt and together with Cushing provide the motivation for him to fulfill his potential?

Or maybe there's a team out there willing to take that risk and trade the farm for him?
 
I am vey sure, that if we get the first pick we will either draft a QB or trade back. I can`t really see a scenario, in which we take Clowner, Barr or Matthews with the first pick.

You don`t have many options to get a franchise QB - so either you think that there is a QB that can be your franchise QB, then you take him. If you don`t, chances are high that someone else thinks, that Bridgewater is their guy - and they will pay a high price to get him.
 
LikeMike said:
I am vey sure, that if we get the first pick we will either draft a QB or trade back. I can`t really see a scenario, in which we take Clowner, Barr or Matthews with the first pick.

You don`t have many options to get a franchise QB so either you think that there is a QB that can be your franchise QB, then you take him. If you don`t, chances are high that someone else thinks, that Bridgewater is their guy - and they will pay a high price to get him.
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I keep hearing that term "franchise QB". What the hell is a 'franchise QB'? Whatever that definition is . . . certainly doesn't apply to this year's crop, I know that.

Or maybe there's a team out there willing to take that risk and trade the farm for him?
Click to expand...

Fingers crossed.
 
Marcus said:
I keep hearing that term "franchise QB". What the hell is a 'franchise QB'? Whatever that definition is . . . certainly doesn't apply to this year's crop, I know that.



Fingers crossed.
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I don't really think there is either, but espin and other media will be hyping someone so strong after the combine that some fool gm will buy in and there it is.... just home it's not ricky buying in
 
LikeMike said:
I am vey sure, that if we get the first pick we will either draft a QB or trade back. I can`t really see a scenario, in which we take Clowner, Barr or Matthews with the first pick.

You don`t have many options to get a franchise QB - so either you think that there is a QB that can be your franchise QB, then you take him. If you don`t, chances are high that someone else thinks, that Bridgewater is their guy - and they will pay a high price to get him.
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That is what many are hoping + Matthews could then fall to us. I also like Kouandijo who could develop into a very good LT just don't see him at RT starter next year as I can see Jake.
 
If there isn't a franchise QB in the draft, then get Matthews so we can protect whatever QB we do play with.
 
Marcus said:
I keep hearing that term "franchise QB". What the hell is a 'franchise QB'? Whatever that definition is . . . certainly doesn't apply to this year's crop, I know that.



Fingers crossed.
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Well, I don`t watch much college football, so I don`t know what I´m talking about here - but I´ve read some very high praise about Bridgewater. As high as "outside of Luck he is the best college QB prospect of the last 10 years."

The combine will tell a lot, but of course you don`t take him, if you are not convinced in his ability.

But when you like him you take him, even if you think Clowney or Matthews is the better player - simply because a QB is that much harder to get and more valuable. I am sure the Texans go in this draft wanting to get a QB and hoping, that there is one they feel good about.

And I am sure that there will be offers for the first pick - some team will love Bridgewater or Clowney and be ready to offer 2 firsts and a second for him at the least...
 
Marcus said:
It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.

So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
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That is thinking based on the previous system. Until the 2011 CBA, the cost was so steep for a 1st round pick as the pick approached #1 overall that a top pick was only seen as a good thing to have in a year when there was one or two clear, top players... The difference between pick #1 and pick #10 might total $20-$25 million over the course of a 5 year deal (that's $4-$5million per season on the cap).. No longer... Now the difference between #1 overall and #31 equals about $4 million per years.

So, in any year, it is the team's advantage at pick #1 to weigh any possible option- trading down, drafting any player available, negotiating with players before the draft, etc... and there is zero penalty because the cap number is reasonable and only slightly more expensive than the subsequent picks.

If you are correct, and there is no clear top choice, the Texans still get the opportunity to grab whatever player they most covet without any other franchise dictating their options... Also, they can weigh their prospective selection against various trade down options (which they will certainly receive)... some teams will undoubtedly covet a player enough to offer significant compensation for that top choice.

Again, beyond 1.1, the Texans will also have further advantages in the draft with picks 2.1 and 4.1- beyond simply picking higher than everyone else, though it is not lost on me how much disappointment it took to get into this position... yet, here we are.
 
Thorn said:
If there isn't a franchise QB in the draft, then get Matthews so we can protect whatever QB we do play with.
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Possible this year, because the contract would be roughly 5 years/$25 million- a reasonable amount for a RT... However, in 2010, the contract would be more like 6 years/ $48 million- which is much more difficult to justify and manage in the cap era for a tackle- with Duane Brown already on the roster and under contract for 5 years.

Again, this is a much, much better situation than what the Texans had in either 2002 or 2006.
 
dalemurphy said:
Possible this year, because the contract would be roughly 5 years/$25 million- a reasonable amount for a RT... However, in 2010, the contract would be more like 6 years/ $48 million- which is much more difficult to justify and manage in the cap era for a tackle- with Duane Brown already on the roster and under contract for 5 years.

Again, this is a much, much better situation than what the Texans had in either 2002 or 2006.
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Assuming what you say is true, then taking Matthews is a no-brainer if they can't trade down a couple of spots.
 
LikeMike said:
I am vey sure, that if we get the first pick we will either draft a QB or trade back. I can`t really see a scenario, in which we take Clowner, Barr or Matthews with the first pick.

You don`t have many options to get a franchise QB - so either you think that there is a QB that can be your franchise QB, then you take him. If you don`t, chances are high that someone else thinks, that Bridgewater is their guy - and they will pay a high price to get him.
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The Texans must have a clear plan this off-season to address QB in the draft- And, they should necessarily plan and expect to overpay for him (in terms of where he is drafted)... BPA doesn't work when the team does not have a QB. Now, that doesn't mean they must take a QB with 1.1... Instead, they could trade down... Or, take someone else at 1.1 but have a clear plan and appealing plan B, to go get the guy they like later in the 1st round or in the 2nd...

Perhaps they love Mettenberger... And, in their mock drafts he went no higher than 23, as low as 67, with an average draft position of 40... On draft day, they need to have a plan that can get them into the early 20s, even if it is likely he falls to them at 33. That's what I mean by "overpaying". Fortunately, they have the power in the draft order and with a couple compensatory picks to execute any plan they would like without losing the opportunity to build talent and depth elsewhere on the roster.

Frankly, I am relieved that there is not a consensus #1... Sometimes, I think public opinion can have too much influence on a team that finds itself in a position like this... reassessing its organizational structure, its football philosophy, and also attempting to return excitement to the fan base... If there was ever a year for a non-activist owner like McNair to be tempted to make a force a draft pick for financial reasons, branding, etc... this would be that moment... Vince Young would be a Houston Texan this time around, I think.
 
We might have Matthews dad on the coaching staff or at least on the payroll by the time the draft rolls around.

I'm for taking him in the first round if we can't get some dumbass GM to give us more picks. I take him and then grab Mettenberger in the 2nd never looking back. Spend most of the rest of the draft trying to sort out the holes in the defense and then search out a reasonably priced veteran QB to compete with and mentor Mettenberger and either Keenum or Yates (new HC's preference).
 
Marcus said:
Assuming what you say is true, then taking Matthews is a no-brainer if they can't trade down a couple of spots.
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I'm not opposed to that at all... I don't watch a ton of college football, nor have I done much research on the talent entering the draft, so I don't have a strong opinion yet.

Still, I love the idea of knowing that both tackle positions will likely be a strength on this team for the next 5 years or more... I have liked what I have seen of Matthews this year... My bigger issue is that I am becoming sold on the pro-Bridgewater arguments and really like the little I have seen from him. I want nothing to do with Clowney (too big a risk, IMO, to take without addressing the central personnel issue in Houston- QB)... So, based on early draft discussions, if we don't trade down, I'd want Matthews or Bridgewater.
 
Marcus said:
Assuming what you say is true, then taking Matthews is a no-brainer if they can't trade down a couple of spots.
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Exactly but also with the new CBA, the team can franchise tag a player much more cheaply annually after the 5 year deal and keep costs down. I could see this with Watt in 2015. Another reason for Matthews over a QB is either a second contract or a franchise tag for a tackle much less than a QB.
 
Clowney or Matthews with the #1 pick. I prefer Clowney, because I think we are gong to be in a 4-3 next year and I could see him and Watt being unstoppable.
 
dalemurphy said:
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
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Uuuumm no it isn't the most valuable than it's ever been before. That is something you made up because you are excited that the Texans have the first pick, but it's a ton of talented guys just like any season. I haven't heard hardly any experts describe this draft as one of the best ever either. They usually say that when there are two or three top QB's that could all be potential #1 types of picks.
 
kingtexan said:
Clowney or Matthews with the #1 pick. I prefer Clowney, because I think we are gong to be in a 4-3 next year and I could see him and Watt being unstoppable.
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Clowney has character issues and Matthews would be a RT for us. I'm not sure a RT at 1.1 would be a good idea.
 
to address the OP.
the value of the first pick is solely with the talent at the spot.

The 3 points you mentioned equate to very little of why the 1st pick is more or less valuable.

I still think there are a number of players worthy of the number 1 pick.

There may not be a luck, manning etc but they are extremely rare
 
Texecutioner said:
Uuuumm no it isn't the most valuable than it's ever been before. That is something you made up because you are excited that the Texans have the first pick, but it's a ton of talented guys just like any season. I haven't heard hardly any experts describe this draft as one of the best ever either. They usually say that when there are two or three top QB's that could all be potential #1 types of picks.
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You are missing my point.

I am speaking of the institutional positioning of the first pick now vs. the institutional positioning prior to 2011. I realize that, at this point, there is no consensus #1 everyone is clamoring for.

I happen to think some of that is simply noise by the media to ramp up interest in coverage, etc... and the information often does not accurately reveal the subjective view of the real, NFL decision-makers that will actually determine the value of these draft choices. I think, with a few exceptions, NFL team draft grades are more varied and distinct from one another than we are led to believe... In other words, an honest poll of NFL GMs would indicate a large spread of draft grades and rankings, even among the top 10 players. From the Texan perspective in 2014, their only issue is whether there are a few NFL teams who covet that first pick (whatever their reasons may be)... and how much to the Texans, themselves, want the guy rated #1 on their list.

In the end, though, we do not (and will not) know how NFL teams value these players... We may have some idea, but those conclusions are based on conjecture, leaked information without a named source, and a lot of misinformation by those same, anonymous people...

So, dealing with what we know for certain regarding the value of the first pick:

1. it will be more valued than before 2011 because of the significantly lower financial commitment.

2. the lower financial commitment broadens the range of player positions that can be selected with that pick.

3. The extension of the draft weekend into 3 days will enable the Texans to field offers for pick #33 for almost 24 hours instead of only 10 minutes- also, they can reorder their board and build a 2nd day strategy around that, and around prospective trades... All of that is objectively true. And, as was true in previous years, they will have that opportunity on the final day of the draft (4th round pick), which is also a good thing.
 
IMHO, at this juncture, if Bortles goes back to school you try to trade back and if you can't trade back, you take Clowney and hope he doesn't turnout to be Aundray Bruce.
 
aussie_texan said:
to address the OP.
the value of the first pick is solely with the talent at the spot.
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That simply is not true in the salary cap era... You are saying, essentially, that a player with a contract which consumes 4% of a team's cap has the same value as an identical player which consumes 8% of a team's cap room... Of course that is not true. It is the reason why teams, during free agency, knowingly sign a lesser talent for less money- they view that decision to have better value. Before 2011, teams were trapped into a system that deemed that pick (regardless of the talent pool) worthy of a $50+ million financial commitment... Now, the system still determines the value of that pick, but the determined value is about 50% of what is was a few years ago... hence, it is much more valuable than it would have been prior to the new CBA.
 
dalemurphy does have a point about the CBA as it pertains to rookie contracts. I don't think it makes the pick more attractive per se but it certainly makes Clowney more attractive.

He is the surefire most talented player in the draft. In years past he would be a much larger financial risk than he is this year. That could possibly open the door for a trade.
 
badboy said:
Does the lack of mobility + injury of Mettenberger cause any of you doubt on drafting him?
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Myself I am not worried about it. ACL's get repaired and his season speaks for itself. I'm comfortable with what he's done this year as my basis for selecting him while at the same time I'd be stalking his doctors and making sure everything was on schedule. I know the Texans have a pretty sketchy history of handling injured players starting with 1-1 in the expansion draft all the way up to Ed Reed this season but sooner or later we're going to be on the right side of one of these things. They need to do everything possible to be certain he's coming along the way he should be. If he isn't then I'd start looking at another QB, most likely McCarron.

But if everything checks out with his rehab I'm fine with it. If I do the Matthews in the first round/Metternberger in the second round thing I'm planning on bringing in a veteran to mentor him anyway. He'll be someone I'm ok with starting early on if I have to (but I really don't want to have to).
 
kingtexan said:
Clowney or Matthews with the #1 pick. I prefer Clowney, because I think we are gong to be in a 4-3 next year and I could see him and Watt being unstoppable.
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I'm sure people following the Lions said something similar about how unstoppable Suh and Fairley were going to be. It hasn't worked out that way. They are at times everything you would expect and at other times less than the sum of their respective parts and it's not because they don't have enough athletic freaks in the bunch. It's because they have questionable motors.

Clowney is as likely to be a guy with a questionable motor as he is to be the other half of some unstoppable DL. We know what Watt's motor is like. Clowney has done nothing to show that he's that kind of player. Just that he has the ability to be that kind of player.

For all we know he's the second "Mario" we'll take 1-1 in less than a decade.
 
Look at this:

2009:
1.1 Matthew Stafford = 6yrs.- $72 million ($42 mil guaranteed)
1.15 Brian Cushing = 5yrs.- $18 million ($10.5 mil guaranteed)

2010
1.1 Sam Bradford = 6yrs.- $78 million ($50 mil guaranteed)
1.15 JPierre Paul = 5yrs. - $20 million ($11.5mil guaranteed)

** If you were a GM with the 15th pick in the draft, how much would you have to love Bradford or Stafford to be willing to trade pick #15 in a package and take on that monster of a contract- In years where there is no stud QB, the disparity is even more remarkable. Look at how much less the financial commitment is only 14 picks later- that ratio is so out of whack relative to the drop in talent that nobody wanted anything to do with the 1st pick.

Here was last season:
2013
1.1 Eric Fisher = 4 yrs (with club option 5th year)- $22 million
1.15 Vaccarro = 4 yrs -$10.5 million

** not only is the dollar figure much, much more reasonable, but the chasm difference between the cost of pick #1 and #15 is much smaller and more in line with likely talent disparity. How could this change not make a huge difference in the value of the 1st pick in the draft?
 
Marcus said:
Not anymore than the durability concerns I have for Bridgewater.
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yeah, he's such a wuss
Louisville junior quarterback Teddy Bridgewater said Monday that he has taken a $10 million insurance policy to protect himself against a career-ending injury.

Bridgewater is projected by many to be a top-five pick in next year's NFL draft. Last season, he attempted to play through several injuries, including to his ankle and thumb.

Bridgewater said he has a high tolerance for pain that came from watching his mother battle and overcome cancer.

"I saw my mom struggle to get out of bed," Bridgewater said. "I saw my mom's hair fall out. As far as I'm concerned, no pain is too tough to deal with."

Bridgewater also said he's been working on his stamina and footwork this offseason by training in the boxing ring in South Florida. Bridgewater said he's been watching video footage of legendary Mike Tyson fights on YouTube.
Click to expand...
 
dalemurphy said:
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
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Atlanta already has four wins. We cannot finish with 4 wins. The "best" we can do is 3 wins and tie with one other team, Washington. In that scenario, Houston and Washington (St. Louis 1st round) will alternate the first pick in each successive round. So we would get 2.1, 4.1, & 6.1.

If we lose to Tenn next week, we will be the only 2-win team, so we will have the first pick in every round. So to boil that down, no matter what, we will select first in the second, fourth, and sixth rounds. We can also pick first in the first, third, fifth, and seventh rounds by losing, otherwise we will pick second in those four rounds.
 
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LikeMike said:
Well, I don`t watch much college football, so I don`t know what I´m talking about here - but I´ve read some very high praise about Bridgewater. As high as "outside of Luck he is the best college QB prospect of the last 10 years."

The combine will tell a lot, but of course you don`t take him, if you are not convinced in his ability.

But when you like him you take him, even if you think Clowney or Matthews is the better player - simply because a QB is that much harder to get and more valuable. I am sure the Texans go in this draft wanting to get a QB and hoping, that there is one they feel good about.

And I am sure that there will be offers for the first pick - some team will love Bridgewater or Clowney and be ready to offer 2 firsts and a second for him at the least...
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This philosopy is why the Texans are where they are today.

Derek Carr is the most talented QB physicaly in this draft. I Really..... hope Rick picks a used Carr.

Same philosophy?

Pick the best damn player for once and fix the trenches. My god some people never learn.
 
leebigeztx said:
Dunno why people think this. They're built as a 3-4. if they hire o'brien, rick wil suggest dc candidates. He might even bring crennell or pluck mangini.
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How's that stout LB core we have working out? Our front 7 is JJ Watt and that's it.
 
PapaL said:
How's that stout LB core we have working out? Our front 7 is JJ Watt and that's it.
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Which could both be said (to the extent they are even true now) in a 4-3.

You want Smith making the play calls too?

Hire the best coach available and let them select the O & D philosophy not the other way around.
 
infantrycak said:
Which could both be said (to the extent they are even true now) in a 4-3.

You want Smith making the play calls too?

Hire the best coach available and let them select the O & D philosophy not the other way around.
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Call me crazy but I'd rather have 3 LBs playing crappy than 4 LBs playing crappy, at least the DL would be able to contain something - which would be better than the nothing we do now.

Did Lovie make all the calls in Chicago or did Rivera/Babich/Marinelli make their fair share of the calls?

My scenario is that Lovie gets the job and goes to 4-3. That's not some far fetched notion. I think it makes Cushing's life that much easier.

We'd obviously need someone with a strong and innovated offense but that's another conversation.
 
PapaL said:
My scenario is that Lovie gets the job and goes to 4-3. That's not some far fetched notion. I think it makes Cushing's life that much easier.
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I didn't say a switch to a 4-3 was far fetched. I said you should pick the coach not the system.

I don't care about how easy Cushing's life is, I care about depth for him which is a concern in either system.
 
The GM picks the HC.

The HC picks the coordinators.

If the GM picks all the other coaches it takes power away from the HC to control the scheme, so why should he be held accountable for the results? It really can't be this hard to figure out...
 
steelbtexan said:
This philosopy is why the Texans are where they are today.

Derek Carr is the most talented QB physicaly in this draft. I Really..... hope Rick picks a used Carr.

Same philosophy?

Pick the best damn player for once and fix the trenches. My god some people never learn.
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Apparently you didn't see him vs USC this past Saturday ? He was very disappointing.
And would you people quit naming Jake Mattews as a possible player for the Texans to draft with their top pick. Just for a moment forget his name and that he's from Houston and besides the truth he's probably not as talented as Michigan's Taylor Lewan and anyway neither is not nearly worthy of the #1 overall.
 
infantrycak said:
I didn't say a switch to a 4-3 was far fetched. I said you should pick the coach not the system.

I don't care about how easy Cushing's life is, I care about depth for him which is a concern in either system.
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Are you thinking that if Love is the guy he'd stay with our 3-4?

Easier to find 1 backup for the MLB than the 2-3 we currently need since none of them can stay healthy.
 
PapaL said:
Are you thinking that if Love is the guy he'd stay with our 3-4?
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I can't make this any plainer. Pick who you think is the best HC - let him pick the scheme. Don't pick the HC because of what scheme he will pick.

Easier to find 1 backup for the MLB than the 2-3 we currently need since none of them can stay healthy.
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Which is meaningless to distinguish the 3-4. It is always "the front 7." You need 7 guys plus backups either way. Go to a 4-3 and you need another DLmen. None of this should determine the system. Either way they have two starting pieces, JJ and Cushing, and 5 spots plus backups to fill in.
 
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