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Old 12-27-2013   #61
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
This is the time to OPENLY discuss the Texans interest in Carr as well as Bridgewater and Clowney. Make sure the team that desired that player knows they might not make it past Houston. The only way to assure the availability of the player is to trade picks. This is trade craft.

I believe this is why the Texans are making it clear that Bridgewater isn't necessarily their choice.
Please, enlighten us.
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Old 12-27-2013   #62
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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I believe this is why the Texans are making it clear that Bridgewater isn't necessarily their choice.
Seriously? The NFL regular season isn't over and the Texans are not locked into the #1 pick yet. They don't even have their coach right now. So what point would there be to say Bridgewater is their guy when the offensive philosophy likely has a say in it?
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Old 12-27-2013   #63
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
why indeed?

seems everybody wants to cheat the system in fantasy trade land when they should be focused on nailing picks as they fall. tempting as it is draft picks are now worth weight in gold, especially high ones because you can address an expensive, dire position of need on the cheap. those who want to pass on a Bridgewater, Bortles or Manziel in favor of a second round QB like Derek Carr or AJ McCarron are truely drinking the instead of the pure stuff windows are now 3-4 years before these great players develop, achieve then are due their first really big contract. Just for refresher JJ Watt will be heading into year four 2014 so you better look out & grab a franchise QB cheap so you can pay one then the other in different time frames to balance your cap

Well, we have 5-6 months of trade speculation. In recent history the worst place to be if you want to trade down is the 1st pick overall. the last one occurred when Eli whined his way from the chargers to the giants in 2004. It is more fun to speculate about a trade that has 10% or less chance of happening, so I am just going to ride it out.
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Old 12-27-2013   #64
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
If Atlanta gets it's heart set on Clowney and St. Louis is afraid Clowney would be gone at 1-2, then they might consider moving up to the first spot. Trading down is contingent on teams falling in love with a player we are willing to pass on or take. We have to be willing to TAKE the player to spur interest in adding value for the trade.

My trade ideas are not that farfetched unless everyone is satisfied with the options they will have at their current draft positions. If we could trade down and still pick up a Matthews or Barr and then perhaps Manzeil and still have another 1 for perhaps the premier safety in the draft, why wouldn't we?

I'm not averse to a little risk and having Keenum as a fallback if there is a run on QBs. Also, some of those QB hungry teams will go after the Backups or Cutler. making a higher rated QB available later.

I imagine Keenum with Matthews and the return of Quissenbury might actually surprise people, particularly with a new OC. Newton might even be better at guard than at Tackle.
Another thing that helps Texans is we need so much so hopefully, other teams will go paranoid thinking we want same guy they have to have. Even better is when another team or two wants that player. Desire is what causes people to make decisions they might not should make. Car salesman says "Look I know you want this little beauty but we already have a deal. If you are willing to pay window sticker I can see if the manager will sell it to you." Sometimes it works...
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Old 12-27-2013   #65
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
Well, we have 5-6 months of trade speculation. In recent history the worst place to be if you want to trade down is the 1st pick overall. the last one occurred when Eli whined his way from the chargers to the giants in 2004. It is more fun to speculate about a trade that has 10% or less chance of happening, so I am just going to ride it out.
It's pretty clear to me NOW who the Texans will target, why wait 5-6 months to begin marketing plan?
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Old 12-27-2013   #66
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

It's funny that we want to trade down because there's nobody worth the # 1 pick .
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Old 12-27-2013   #67
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
It's pretty clear to me NOW who the Texans will target, why wait 5-6 months to begin marketing plan?
In the broadest sense of an answer, it is just in case somebody does offer some wtf offer that they can't refuse.

If you know what direction they are going, you something they don't (nor should) know at this point. May is a long way away.
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Old 12-27-2013   #68
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
Well, I don`t watch much college football, so I don`t know what Im talking about here - but Ive read some very high praise about Bridgewater. As high as "outside of Luck he is the best college QB prospect of the last 10 years."
And in other news, Reggie Bush (who's about to get his 2nd 1000 yard season in his career) will be the next Gale Sayers and both David Carr and Joey Harrington are LOCKS to be all-pro quarterbacks.
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Old 12-27-2013   #69
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Clowney has character issues and Matthews would be a RT for us. I'm not sure a RT at 1.1 would be a good idea.
His father played more at guard and right tackle than he did at left tackle for the Oilers.

Don't think anyone would have an issue choosing another Bruce Matthew #1.
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Old 12-27-2013   #70
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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His father played more at guard and right tackle than he did at left tackle for the Oilers.

Don't think anyone would have an issue choosing another Bruce Matthew #1.
I don't think anyone would have a problem if they knew they were getting Bruce Matthews #1.

The problem that most people have is that the RT position could be upgraded later in the draft.

The problem I have is that Jake is being overrated because of who his father is. He's a good, solid prospect with a high floor. But he's not a tremendous athlete and his ceiling isn't much higher than where he is already. Low risk, low reward.
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Old 12-27-2013   #71
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
In the broadest sense of an answer, it is just in case somebody does offer some wtf offer that they can't refuse.

If you know what direction they are going, you something they don't (nor should) know at this point. May is a long way away.
They probably don't know what the hell they're doing or have been doing for that matter since inception. This is my viewpoint only & not related or connected in any way shape of form to what is going down on Kirby. I would love that chance to help Mr. McNair but ain't happening but what I can do is have some input here, thanks to mods & fellow posters alike, to shed some light on a proper course of action. If Teddy Bridgewater is the next Luck/RGIII which I believe he is, then lets leverage his value where applicable as a clear consensus #1. Then no matter if we select him & finally have a franchise QB or trade him away, we get a kings ransom.
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Old 12-27-2013   #72
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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I don't think anyone would have a problem if they knew they were getting Bruce Matthews #1.

The problem that most people have is that the RT position could be upgraded later in the draft.

The problem I have is that Jake is being overrated because of who his father is. He's a good, solid prospect with a high floor. But he's not a tremendous athlete and his ceiling isn't much higher than where he is already. Low risk, low reward.
I just remember the last time we passed on a Matthews. Cushing is a fine player, but based on injury history and overall production, we should have taken Jr.
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Old 12-27-2013   #73
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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I just remember the last time we passed on a Matthews. Cushing is a fine player, but based on injury history and overall production, we should have taken Jr.
Matthews was our (boards) favorite pick, but despite injuy's, been very pleased with Brian. I look forward to his return 100%. He really helps JJ, they feed off each other
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Old 12-27-2013   #74
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by bOODRO87 View Post
Please, enlighten us.
I read (I think on the official site) that the Texans indicated that Bridgewater is not locked in. I believe this is a good move to let OTHERS know that they cannot count on Houston to make the expected pick. If someone like Atlanta is considering a trade with St Louis to get Clowney, it's a good idea to let them know he might not make it past Houston. Then they have the incentive to deal with Houston instead.

But if St Louis love the pick themselves, they now have a reason to trade with Houston. Get a bidding war started for those who have zeroed in on a particular player by making it known that Houston might take that player. Create the demand for that 1-1 pick by introducing uncertainty.

Even after we get the new HC, this will serve him well. Even if we fall in love with a player, we are in a position to manipulate the players, make a couple of trades and still get our guy if he's not the same player the other teams want. If we name OUR GUY, then the Rams get the benefit of the trade opportunities.
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Old 12-27-2013   #75
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
They probably don't know what the hell they're doing or have been doing for that matter since inception. This is my viewpoint only & not related or connected in any way shape of form to what is going down on Kirby. I would love that chance to help Mr. McNair but ain't happening but what I can do is have some input here, thanks to mods & fellow posters alike, to shed some light on a proper course of action. If Teddy Bridgewater is the next Luck/RGIII which I believe he is, then lets leverage his value where applicable as a clear consensus #1. Then no matter if we select him & finally have a franchise QB or trade him away, we get a kings ransom.
That's probably where we differ. I think Bridgewater has low chance of busting and is better than Smith/Manuel, but is not the clear total package that both Luck and RGIII were. If you can stomach someone between Stafford and Matt Ryan that's where I think he lands long term, which I think is worth the 1st overall pick.


Also, I think the gap between Bridgewater and the other prospects is not that large although I think the bust potential of all of them is greater than Bridgewater.

Honestly, given the history of what I have seen with this club, at the moment I am expecting to go with less known/interesting quantity so Bortles would be current prediction although I am in no way locked into/going to spent lots of time defending what is a "gut feeling" versus a logical, analyzed process.
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Old 12-27-2013   #76
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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I'm not on board with picking Matthews 1-1.

I want that on the record.
Why? Do you think that the grand jury is going to start calling people in to testify?

Just curious. I couldn't care less what you people think about Matthews at 1-1. Right now that's what I'd do. Wouldn't even hesitate.
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Old 12-27-2013   #77
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Would you trade 1-1, 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1 for St Louis' 1-2 and 1-15?
Perhaps to be followed by trading 1-2 for Cleveland's 1-5, 1-25 and 4-5?

This would give us 3 first round picks, 1-5, 1-15, 1-25; one third round pick, 3-1; two fourth round picks, 4-1 and 4-5 and a seventh round pick, 7-1.

ps These trades would balance using the old trade pick point value scheme.
Certainly would. At a glance it looks more than fair. I'd jump all over that.
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Old 12-27-2013   #78
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
I read (I think on the official site) that the Texans indicated that Bridgewater is not locked in. I believe this is a good move to let OTHERS know that they cannot count on Houston to make the expected pick. If someone like Atlanta is considering a trade with St Louis to get Clowney, it's a good idea to let them know he might not make it past Houston. Then they have the incentive to deal with Houston instead.

But if St Louis love the pick themselves, they now have a reason to trade with Houston. Get a bidding war started for those who have zeroed in on a particular player by making it known that Houston might take that player. Create the demand for that 1-1 pick by introducing uncertainty.

Even after we get the new HC, this will serve him well. Even if we fall in love with a player, we are in a position to manipulate the players, make a couple of trades and still get our guy if he's not the same player the other teams want. If we name OUR GUY, then the Rams get the benefit of the trade opportunities.
good point. but Clowney more than fairly resembles his namesake as a clown with repeat traffic offenses which borderline on stupidity given his circumstances. Imagine what this clown is capable of when loaded hardly the stuff of NFL #1 overall pick, if Atlanta wants him then they belong together....
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Old 12-27-2013   #79
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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I just remember the last time we passed on a Matthews. Cushing is a fine player, but based on injury history and overall production, we should have taken Jr.
Yep

I was even hoping they would trade back into the 1st and pick Matthews Jr. so that the LB crew would be set for the next decade.

With that said, I was happy when they picked Barwin in the 2nd.

If the Texans had the 3rd-5th pick I would be on board with picking Matthews. I believe he has HOF potential as an OG.
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Old 12-28-2013   #80
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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good point. but Clowney more than fairly resembles his namesake as a clown with repeat traffic offenses which borderline on stupidity given his circumstances. Imagine what this clown is capable of when loaded hardly the stuff of NFL #1 overall pick, if Atlanta wants him then they belong together....
To maximize value for the 1-1 pick, it isn't necessary to be sold on Clowney, just open to him to get the interest of other teams who are sold on him to consider a trade up. I just read that Mariota might be back in the picture. That means another good QB prospect. There are more QB prospects than teams looking for immediate help from the high rounds, so unless you have zeroed in on a particular QB as elite, they are somewhat fungible.

I'd rather be GM than owner or coach. This is the fun part.

Since we will likely have the 1-1, let's maximize demand for it and drive up the price. If we lock in on any player, the trade offers go to St Louis.
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