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Old 01-15-2014   #1
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Default Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics
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Much will be written about the talent and depth in this yearís wide receiver draft class; itíll be one of those truisms that gets passed around non-stop. Just looking at the stats of the top tier of WRs shows us that it isnít just an empty platitude, but rather a statement that has a lot of merit. On average, this yearís class of WRs gained more yards after the catch, dropped less balls, and achieved production utilizing a much wider array of talents. Iíll expand on those stats in the piece, but itís important to note that these stats wonít predict which WR will be better, but explain their production and complement film study.

Where Did They Catch the Ball?

The table below represents the percentage of catches in each zone, it is color-coded so that an above-average number of receptions is greener and a below-average number is redder.



- Sammy Watkinsí receptions stick out like...

- The most normalized reception chart belongs to Mike Evans...

- Like Evans, 25% of Benjaminís...

- Leeís receptions are the most stunning, as only...

What Did They Do After They Caught It?



...

How Did they Catch the Ball?

The chart below represents the final break each WR made before catching the ball. The goal isnít to tell you exactly what routes each WR ran, but the variety of breaks they made as well as how those affected their production. For instance, comebacks typically yield very little YAC (2.5 yards on average) while posts/corner/slants yield high yards after the catch. The chart has factored out screens.



...

How Are Their Hands?

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR Ďcould have caughtí with an acrobatic play. I wonít provide any commentary since itís pretty self-explanatory.



...
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Old 01-15-2014   #2
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

My biggest issue with Watkins was always that he was not a true WR. Hopkins was a true WR, but Watkins just ran screens, slants, bubbles, and jet sweeps. That changed this year. He proved to me that he can play WR in the NFL.

I think Lee is the most NFL ready. Evans and Benjamin are both projects. Benjamin has the most potential.
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Old 01-15-2014   #3
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
My biggest issue with Watkins was always that he was not a true WR. Hopkins was a true WR, but Watkins just ran screens, slants, bubbles, and jet sweeps. That changed this year. He proved to me that he can play WR in the NFL.

I think Lee is the most NFL ready. Evans and Benjamin are both projects. Benjamin has the most potential.

Benjamin is a project,Evans is not. Benjamin is more of a sideline,jump ball guy like hopkins. Evans is more like a dagger route,run after catch,hard to tackle guy like alshon jeffery or brandon marshall. Lee is polished,but injury prone like woods. Watkins is like you said,percy harvin like.
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Old 01-15-2014   #4
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

I dunno how you can look at Evans and not see the second coming of Vincent Jackson, minus the several dumb on-field mistakes (fumble, kicking the challenge flag, etc.)
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Old 01-15-2014   #5
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I dunno how you can look at Evans and not see the second coming of Vincent Jackson, minus the several dumb on-field mistakes (fumble, kicking the challenge flag, etc.)
Evans doesn't have the straight line speed Vjax does, their body type is similar but Evans won't be taking the top off of defenses like Jackson can.
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Old 01-15-2014   #6
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

This is kind of non relevant to me.

Different players in different offenses. Different guys throwing them the ball. Different play calling.
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Old 01-15-2014   #7
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

I'd be very surprised if the Texans took a WR in the first 3 rounds. Even with a tradeback in the 1st, I don't think they would target a WR.
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Old 01-15-2014   #8
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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Evans doesn't have the straight line speed Vjax does, their body type is similar but Evans won't be taking the top off of defenses like Jackson can.
True that. Evans isn't a burner, but even when Evans is covered, you can't help but think he's open. He knows how to play the ball in the air.
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Old 01-15-2014   #9
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I'd be very surprised if the Texans took a WR in the first 3 rounds. Even with a tradeback in the 1st, I don't think they would target a WR.
I might, but we need a Wes Welker on this team no? It would be telling if do pluck a WR from this crop.
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Old 01-16-2014   #10
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
Benjamin is a project,Evans is not.
I call Evans a project because he's only played WR for 3 years. He's pretty raw at the position. Runs good routes and knows how to use his body, but doesn't seem to understand the nuances of playing WR yet. A guy his size shouldn't struggle against press coverage, and yet, he really struggled against press coverage this year.
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Old 01-16-2014   #11
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I'd be very surprised if the Texans took a WR in the first 3 rounds. Even with a tradeback in the 1st, I don't think they would target a WR.
I would agree unless they trade back with St. Louis, still get Manziel, and pick up 1-13 in the draft and WR is BPA. Unlikely, but a possibility.
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Old 01-16-2014   #12
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I would agree unless they trade back with St. Louis, still get Manziel, and pick up 1-13 in the draft and WR is BPA. Unlikely, but a possibility.
Why would the rams trade up?
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Old 01-16-2014   #13
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I might, but we need a Wes Welker on this team no? It would be telling if do pluck a WR from this crop.
Ryan Grant from Tulane is the kind of 5-6th rd guy they should be looking at.

Quick/great hands/runs routes well. Good not great speed.
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Old 01-16-2014   #14
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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Why would the rams trade up?
Like I said. Unlikely, but you never know.
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Old 01-29-2014   #15
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

A follow on to his original article, some WRs further down the list...

Greg Peshek ‏@NU_Gap
Quote:
Today's piece didn't mention my favorite stat - that 83% of Odell Beckham's receptions went for a first down
Peshek: WR Metrics 2.0

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Read full article here: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...-wr-metrics-20


Josh Norris ‏@JoshNorris
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WR drop rates:

Landry 2.5%
Evans 4.3%
Watkins 4.5%
Cooks 4.7%
A-Rob 5.4%
ODB 6.45%
J-Matt 7.7%
Kelvin 9.7%
Lee 12.3%
Odell Beckham... OB... O'Brien... OB..... is it kismet?
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Old 01-29-2014   #16
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

I love Beckham. Best chance to get him is probably at #33 though. Can we risk using that pick on a WR with so many other needs?
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Old 01-29-2014   #17
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I love Beckham. Best chance to get him is probably at #33 though. Can we risk using that pick on a WR with so many other needs?
Good question. I think we have more pressing needs and there are alot of good WR's in this class. Maybe we can look at a guy in the 3rd-6th.

Donte Moncrief
Robert Herron
Mike Davis

Lots of good prospects.
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Old 01-29-2014   #18
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I love Beckham. Best chance to get him is probably at #33 though. Can we risk using that pick on a WR with so many other needs?
I do too, but don't think we can either.

How high will Allen Robinson go?
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Old 01-29-2014   #19
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I do too, but don't think we can either.

How high will Allen Robinson go?
I have Beckham #34 and Robinson #41 on my board. But the WR class is so deep that each may drop a little bit as teams try to hold off as long as possible before taking one, knowing that if they miss out they can still get a decent one later.

I think both go in the top 50 for sure.
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Old 01-29-2014   #20
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Default Re: Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

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I do too, but don't think we can either.

How high will Allen Robinson go?
Late first early second IMO. Could be available at 33, could not be.
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