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Old 4 Hours Ago   #1
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Default 2014 Draft: Why No Quarterbacks Are Locks to Be Drafted in the Top 10

One veteran scout's view on...

2014 Draft: Why No Quarterbacks Are Locks to Be Drafted in the Top 10
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Six weeks ago, the general consensus among draft analysts was that three or four quarterbacks could be drafted within the top 10 picks of the 2014 NFL draft. While many still adhere to that theory, I am not one and never have been.

NFL clubs have over-drafted at the quarterback position for years. The thinking has been that it's almost impossible to sign a quality quarterback in free agency. If you want one, you have to draft one. The only way you can be sure of getting a quarterback is to draft one in the first round.

The problem with that thought process is that when you force the issue and over-draft at that position, it generally comes back to haunt you. A good percentage of first-round quarterbacks drafted in the last nine years have failed, and an even higher percentage of top-10 quarterbacks have failed to live up to expectations.

Recent history of first-round quarterbacks

When you look at the success rate of quarterbacks taken in the top 10 of the first round the last nine years, the results...
Greg Gabriel is a 30+ year NFL veteran scout with the Bills, National Scouting, Giants, and Director of College Scouting for the Bears for 9 years. Retired, he still consults for NFL teams and writes for NFP and BR.
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Old 2 Hours Ago   #2
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Default Re: 2014 Draft: Why No Quarterbacks Are Locks to Be Drafted in the Top 10

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2008 saw two quarterbacks drafted in the first round, with one going third overall. Matt Ryan was selected by the Atlanta Falcons. He has had a very good career but still hasn't met overall expectations.


Matthew Stafford from Georgia was the first overall selection in the 2009 draft. While Stafford has played well, he has led the Lions to the playoffs only one time (2011).

While in some cases the jury is still out, in my opinion, less than a third of the top-10 quarterbacks have lived up to expectations.
His bar is pretty high if Ryan and Stafford haven't met expectations. And is the problem that teams have taken QBs in the top 10? Or just have drafted the wrong QB? If the Niners had drafted Rodgers, if the Titans had draft Cutler, if Kaepernick & Wilson been drafted rather than Locker and Gabbert, would this argument ever be made?

What the author should be saying is that NFL teams have not been very good at evaluating QB prospects. I would agree. Teams have been more concerned with metrics and level of competition, rather than production. Then you have a couple of QBs like Manziel and Bridgewater come along, and they are knocked for their size. And you have a Bortles who is knocked for his level of competition. Seems like the same problem regarding the evaluation process. Except this time, the guys who have produced were the highest rated from the outset. Sorry, I'm not buying the argument. There will be QBs taken from this draft that will be successful. The question is and always will be, can the NFL rate them correctly.
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