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Old 11-14-2013   #41
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by Vinny View Post
Pryor has a knee injury. Hell, their defense gave up 7TD passes a couple of weeks ago to Nick Foles. Even when Pryor is healthy the Raiders struggle...PLUS defensively they are just awful. I don't know how you guys thought we would go to Arizona and handle their defense and I don't know what you guys are looking at when you look at the Raiders. As bad as we are, we are a much better team than the Raiders.
First of all I predicted a loss to the Cards. Hell, I only predicted 14 points for the Texans. If Pryor plays then I will pick the Raiders to win. Not sure how you can fault that as the Texans have found exotic ways to lose games that they should have won.
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Old 11-14-2013   #42
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by Bulls on Parade View Post
I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans lose these final seven games and finish the 2013 season 2-14 with 14 losses in a row. That will likely net us the first overall pick in the 2014 draft. I must admit, that wouldn't be a bad thing since our playoff hopes already faded weeks ago.

These next two home games against the Raiders and Jaguars will tell the story. The Texans will be heavily favored to win both games. The Texans are already -7 against the Raiders and will probably be -13.5 or so against the Jaguars, but if we end up losing these two games that will make us the new frontrunners for the top pick.

We currently own the 4th overall pick at 2-7. Looks like 2005 all over again, Mr. Bob McNair. I never expected this 2013 season to fall apart so fast. I don't want to blame anybody. Coaching staff or players. It is what it is. Injuries in particular derailed us.

But it's no big deal. We can reload in a deep draft class and get some healthy bodies back (Arian Foster and Brian Cushing). And bingo, we're a 14-2 team in 2014. We can become the first team in NFL history to go from 2-14 to 14-2 in one year. Assuming we can lose out the rest of the way like I kind of expect.
There is no way in hell we lose all the remaining games, we arent that damn bad....
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Old 11-14-2013   #43
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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There is no way in hell we lose all the remaining games, we arent that damn bad....
Don't underestimate how inept our FO and coaching staff is. They're starting to lose the players. They don't believe in them anymore. We have players that don't believe their coach is going to lead them to victory. Ed Reed spoke his mind, and though the rest of their Texans go about their business, I'm sure many of them agree with that sentiment.

We have DeAndre Hopkins jerking it, a joke of a RT, no legitimate ILBs as a 3-4 defense, and Shiloh Keo is our starting safety. Oh, and Arian Foster's out too. I bet if we look back at this team 10 years from now, we will barely remember 9 of the defensive starters on this team. We've got a ton of jokers on that side of the ball, aside from JJ Watt. Swearinger's playing well, but he's still just a rookie. Let's just face it. Rick Smith has created a team of scrubs. We replace elite / good players with average / mediocre players. That is not a formula for success.

Do you expect Brian Cushing to come back 100% next season? I hope he does, but I'm not optimistic. He's been through way too many major injuries to be playing at the same level again. This team is a mess, and someone's got to take responsibility for it.
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Old 11-14-2013   #44
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by CretorFrigg View Post
Don't underestimate how inept our FO and coaching staff is. They're starting to lose the players. They don't believe in them anymore. We have players that don't believe their coach is going to lead them to victory. Ed Reed spoke his mind, and though the rest of their Texans go about their business, I'm sure many of them agree with that sentiment.

We have DeAndre Hopkins jerking it, a joke of a RT, no legitimate ILBs as a 3-4 defense, and Shiloh Keo is our starting safety. Oh, and Arian Foster's out too. I bet if we look back at this team 10 years from now, we will barely remember 9 of the defensive starters on this team. We've got a ton of jokers on that side of the ball, aside from JJ Watt. Swearinger's playing well, but he's still just a rookie. Let's just face it. Rick Smith has created a team of scrubs. We replace elite / good players with average / mediocre players. That is not a formula for success.

Do you expect Brian Cushing to come back 100% next season? I hope he does, but I'm not optimistic. He's been through way too many major injuries to be playing at the same level again. This team is a mess, and someone's got to take responsibility for it.
So, uhhh, come out to watch your fighting 22 on Sunday folks and don't forget to wear your Liberty Blue!!
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Old 11-14-2013   #45
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by Grams View Post
Because we don't know how to finish or play a full 60 minute game.
We either get a great first half or a great second half - never a full game.
Never have with Gary and Wade.
That's just utter and complete BS.

In 2011 and 2012... with Gary and Wade together, this team was 22-10 even with a lot of injuries to key players.
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Old 11-14-2013   #46
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
I think it's a little too easy for people to forget the records of the 2008, 2009, and 2010 seasons. Even if you discount 2006, 2010 was a 6-10 season. The team went 12-4 last year. That is GREAT. So with those 12 wins, Kubiak's career record sits at 61-59. That's what we call mediocrity, folks. 2011 was an outlier. The man has an EIGHT YEAR track record and all some people want to do is focus on the two good years. That's fine if you think it's an upward trend, but I think it's pretty clear those seasons were an outlier. 8-8 is right about their speed.

Anyone care to make a graph?
6-8-8-9-6-10-12-?

That's an upward trend even if the last number is low.
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Old 11-14-2013   #47
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

I like these numbers:

6-8-8-9-6-10-12-6-10-13-16-19
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Old 11-15-2013   #48
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
...
Even if you discount 2006, 2010 was a 6-10 season.
...
Anyone care to make a graph?
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
6-8-8-9-6-10-12-?

That's an upward trend even if the last number is low.
Ok. I did the graph and put in trend lines. I assumed five wins this year, which gives the Texans the benefit of the doubt that they will finish stronger than they have played so far. That resulted is an increase of about 1.5 games over eight years. It's upward, but it does start from a 6 win season. The trend line started at 7.5 and finished at 9 wins.

If the Texans only win three games this season, the trend line is virtually flat just below 8 wins

============

I don't like dropping data points, but I did another chart in case someone calls "foul" about counting Kubiak's first year, since he took over a bad team. I dropped the first 6 win season and plotted the next seven years. This made the trend worse.

When I took the last seven years of the team and assumed five wins this season, the trend line was absolutely flat just above 8 wins.

Fun stuff.
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Old 11-15-2013   #49
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by Runner View Post
I don't like dropping data points, but I did another chart in case someone calls "foul" about counting Kubiak's first year, since he took over a bad team. I dropped the first 6 win season and plotted the next seven years. This made the trend worse.

When I took the last seven years of the team and assumed five wins this season, the trend line was absolutely flat just above 8 wins.

Fun stuff.
Unintentionally you have skewed it. The starting point and everything since should be included. This is the result for a linear regression.

Results:
Total Numbers : 9 (data points)
Slope(b) : .533333
y-Intercept(a) : 5.2
Regression Equation(y): 5.2 + .5333x (x = number of seasons)

So the slope indicates an overall improvement rate of .5333 games per season.

If calculated prior to this season the slope and overall improvement rate would have been 1.012 or an improvement of 1.012 games per season. Tje equation for this would have been 4.083 + 1.012x.
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Old 11-15-2013   #50
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Unintentionally you have skewed it. The starting point and everything since should be included. This is the result for a linear regression.

Results:
Total Numbers : 9
Slope(b) : .533333
y-Intercept(a) : 5.2
Regression Equation(y): 5.2 + .5333x (x = number of seasons)

So the slope indicates an overall improvement rate of .5333 games per season.
Any skewing is unintentional as you said. My college sadistics are rusty to say the least. I used Excel to do a linear trend line.

Your numbers show 9 data points - what are they and what did you project for this season's record? Are you considering Capers 2-14 season the starting point?
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Old 11-15-2013   #51
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by Runner View Post
Your numbers show 9 data points - what are they and what did you project for this season's record? Are you considering Capers 2-14 season the starting point?
Yes, the 2-14 season is the year 0 data point. You have to set the starting point from which improvement is to be judged otherwise you are making year 1 a no improvement (or decline) year no matter the result. So the 9 points are year 0 and 8 seasons of results (and I used your 5 win scenario for year 8). Best scenario of them winning out, the slope would be .8.
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Old 11-15-2013   #52
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Yes, the 2-14 season is the year 0 data point. You have to set the starting point from which improvement is to be judged otherwise you are making year 1 a no improvement (or decline) year no matter the result. So the 9 points are year 0 and 8 seasons of results (and I used your 5 win scenario for year 8). Best scenario of them winning out, the slope would be .8.
I don't think we are answering the same question. I'm answering the question "how has Kubiak improved since he's been here". You are answering the question "how have the Texans done since Kubiak had been here". The inclusion of the two win season radically changes the slope of the line.

However, that is a two edged sword. Your .533 slope starting at a two win season projects something like 8 wins next year. My lesser slope starting at six wins projects more like 9.

I'm just glad this discussion isn't being graded with a red pen...
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Old 11-15-2013   #53
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by Runner View Post
I don't think we are answering the same question. I'm answering the question "how has Kubiak improved since he's been here". You are answering the question "how have the Texans done since Kubiak had been here". The inclusion of the two win season radically changes the slope of the line.
Well it isn't the same question but your question is not what you suggest. I am answering how the Texans' results improved under Kubiak. You are answering how the Texans' results improved under Kubiak since his 1st season. They didn't get to 6 wins without Kubiak so his 1st season should be included as a result data point rather than ansthe starting point. Neither formulation measures "how Kubiak improved" for either time period.
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Old 11-15-2013   #54
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Well it isn't the same question but your question is not what you suggest. I am answering how the Texans' results improved under Kubiak. You are answering how the Texans' results improved under Kubiak since his 1st season. They didn't get to 6 wins without Kubiak so his 1st season should be included as a result data point rather than ansthe starting point. Neither formulation measures "how Kubiak improved" for either time period.
Correct. I am comparing Kubiak to the base he set his first year. If he won 6 games each of his first three years (or 8 or 10 each year) I'd say his performance was flat over those three years. I wouldn't say it had an upward trend because Capers had a 2 win season.

If he won 8 then 7 then 6 I wouldn't say his performance had a positive slope due to the previous 2 win season either. That is obviously misleading.
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Old 11-15-2013   #55
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Correct. I am comparing Kubiak to the base he set his first year. If he won 6 games each of his first three years (or 8 or 10 each year) I'd say his performance was flat over those three years. I wouldn't say it had an upward trend because Capers had a 2 win season.

If he won 8 then 7 then 6 I wouldn't say his performance had a positive slope due to the previous 2 win season either. That is obviously misleading.
No it is proper mathematical analysis. Now you are intentionally skewing. He did not take over a 6 win team. The baseline is what he took on, not the result after a year's effort. Its that simple.

After the 2006 season, if someone asked, you said the team won 4 more games, not none.

Look, linear regression is a very simple tool and it is going to flatten out to a best fit. Non-linear regression would yield a more form fitting curve. You will still include the 2 win season as the start to do it properly.

1 parameter non-linear: y = ln(x + 1522.620766)
2 parameter non-linear: y=2.455916484 x1/2 + 2.987163122
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Old 11-15-2013   #56
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
No it is proper mathematical analysis. Now you are intentionally skewing. He did not take over a 6 win team. The baseline is what he took on, not the result after a year's effort. Its that simple.

After the 2006 season, if someone asked, you said the team won 4 more games, not none.
After the 2006 season, if someone asked how many games Kubiak's team won, I'd say 6, not +4.

I am clearly stating that I am comparing Kubiak's progress as a coach from his first season onward. Whether you like the question or not, I'm not hiding/skewing anything.

If I am comparing him to Capers, I don't have to do the math to do that. He's much better.
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Old 11-15-2013   #57
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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After the 2006 season, if someone asked how many games Kubiak's team won, I'd say 6, not +4.

I am clearly stating that I am comparing Kubiak's progress as a coach from his first season onward. Whether you like the question or not, I'm not hiding/skewing anything.

If I am comparing him to Capers, I don't have to do the math to do that. He's much better.
The ORIGINAL post by EriaDoc made a statement implying that we haven't seen an upward trend since Kubiak took over.

Even if we throw out the previous regime's 2-14 season, there is still an upward trend. Almost any method you use to place a line through those numbers is going to have an upward slope.
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Old 11-15-2013   #58
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

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After the 2006 season, if someone asked how many games Kubiak's team won, I'd say 6, not +4.

I am clearly stating that I am comparing Kubiak's progress as a coach from his first season onward. Whether you like the question or not, I'm not hiding/skewing anything.

If I am comparing him to Capers, I don't have to do the math to do that. He's much better.
Putting aside the math, you don't have a data source for progress of a coach so you have a logic fallacy to begin your process. W's are a measure of the team in toto. By your suggested standard Bill Belicheck has made no "progress as a coach" during his tenure in New England.

Anyway, I started off basically agreeing with you (or thought I was) that the team's progress has been mediocre.
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Old 11-15-2013   #59
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

Well heres hopeing it continues... 2-14 please..
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Old 11-15-2013   #60
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Default Re: Longest losing streak in NFL

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
The ORIGINAL post by EriaDoc made a statement implying that we haven't seen an upward trend since Kubiak took over.

Even if we throw out the previous regime's 2-14 season, there is still an upward trend. Almost any method you use to place a line through those numbers is going to have an upward slope.
Correct through last season for certain. Through this season too, barring an extremely unlikely two or three win season. I thought my five win assumption was low, but the change from a 2-7 start to s 3-4 to finish is a pretty big change
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