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View Poll Results: Who gets the start at QB after the buy?
Keenum 162 88.52%
Schaub 21 11.48%
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Old 10-31-2013   #501
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Originally Posted by Carr Bombed View Post
(Freeman) Upchuck & (Ponder) Puke.

For the love of god, don't even waste your time on these guys. If Case doesn't look like a Starter going forward, draft a QB and sign a older vet to help teach him the ropes.

If Case looks like he's a starter go elsewhere in the first round.
No, I don't want to waste time with Cutler or Freeman. If we go after a QB in the first I want them to be in that mold. Prototypical size, big arm, athletic enough. If either of those guys had Kubiak working with them I think their careers would have been much different.

Freeman is still young enough that we may not know who he is, or what he can be, but I didn't care for the way he handled the Buccaneer thing. Ponder can be special, I think. Our guys aren't Percy Harvin, but they're pretty good after the catch. Ponder looks perfect for the WCO.

Keep in mind, I have no idea who these QBs are coming out in the draft. If you think one of those guys can be a franchise guy (& you don't believe Case can) then you've got to take him in the first. Otherwise, I'd rather bring in a stop-gap (with potential) like Ponder & get two of the following three; OT, OG, ILB, in the first & second round.
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Old 10-31-2013   #502
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
76Texan - with the scouting the have now,they're not missing qb with talent nearly as much. All those guys you list were at least 10 yrs ago which is a lifetime in the nfl. The most recent guy was tony romo who played at what eastern michigan or somewhere like that? Go look at the last 10 yrs of superbowl qbs and see where they where drafted. That is the real obejective right? Now if you want a guy to get you through a season or so, fine. The way the nfl is setup today and going forward ,your qb will have to makeup for faults in your team because of the salary cap restrictions. Its not like it used to be when you could build your team all the way up and just get a guy to manage the game. The dilfer ravens and johnson bucs wnt happen again that I can see. Look at the holes the last 5 sb qb had to overcome ie ol,rb,wr injuries and such. Unless you have a stacked team and you can win with a guy on his rookie deal,the qb is gonna have holes on the team. We've seen big ben,rodgers,and eli win sbs with avg o-line and minimum run games. That's the wrld we're in now.

Really what it boils down to is talent evaluation. If the coaches view keenum as a franchise qb,they better be right or you will get fired quickly. Same can be said of the 1st or 2nd rd qb. My thing is as I mentioned before,id rather have 2 chances at being right than 1. Dallas had aikman and drafted walsh with a 1st rd supp pick. After the wash out,they got a 1st rd pick for walsh. In sd after trading down and drafting brees with the 1st pick in the 2nd rd even with his struggless,they still drafted rivers. The turned out to be on both qbs ad should've gotten something more than the 3rd. Rd compensatory pick for brees. Qb is a commodity in this league. If case flashes enough to say he's a starter,but the team continue to struggle and the coach gm evealuate a player there as a franchise qb in the 1st rd,you can't pass him or you shouldn't pass him. Now we do know gms and coaches can talk themselves into believing the guy on the roser is the guy or the guy a the draft position is the guy. As long as your right,its not a problem. Trading a qb on a rookie deal who is performing can yield a lot. I mean pats got a 1st rd pick for matt cassell who went undrafted and green bay got a 1st for hassellback from seattle who was a 6th rd pick if I remember.
We also make a mistake when we assume a drafted QB that becomes great in one situation would also succeed in the others. Brady May never have surfaced,and certainly not as an all time great, if a set of weird circumstances don't happen. If the raiders drafted Montana, I doubt he would have looked anything like the guy bill Walsh developed. Similarly, there are guys that never reached their potential because of the situation they were in.

More than any position, there are so many factors that contribute to the development of a great QB that the first mistake often made is believing they can all be assessed or identified. Keenum'a potential ceiling is as uncertain as the next nine games. If he is part of a magical run, all of a sudden, players and coaches believe in him-even if his play is inconsistent.

Brady built his career on a mythology that existed only because of a Bledsoe injury, a snowy football game, absurd reversal on replay, and an impossible viniteri field goal. If that fumble wasn't overturned, is brady even in the league now? Does he ever get to a Super Bowl? Does his team and he, himself, ever have the confidence in him to overcome so much?
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Old 10-31-2013   #503
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

Leebig, let's have some numbers down first.

In the last ten years (not counting 2013), there were 31 QBs drafted in the first round.
These guys were given the starting spot and littered the NFL rosters such that there were some 14 (fourteen) more of them than non-first-round starters last year, yet the number of first-round QBs that made it to the big dance amounted to roughly the same as non-first-rounders.

That also held true for the previous ten years.

Who's to say that first round QBs give a team the best chance?
On top of that, if you trade out of the first round, you can get at least a second and a third, with which you can use to draft more lower round QBs, further enhancing the chance to find the right one (especially when you can't get a sure-fire franchise QB in the first.)

For this reason, I didn't even want to spend a first on guys like RG III and VY.
These guys need to make plays with their legs to be worthy of their draft status (VY more so than RG III). There's more of an injury risk with this type of QB; and you can be out of a lot of cap space if they go down.
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Old 10-31-2013   #504
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

Also, as you have said yourself, teams were getting good trade values for guys they drafted low and developed.
Why waste your first round draft pick when you're not really sold on them?
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Old 10-31-2013   #505
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Also, as you have said yourself, teams were getting good trade values for guys they drafted low and developed.
Why waste your first round draft pick when you're not really sold on them?
I totally agree with Leebigeztx that I do not want the Texans to ignore the QB position early in the draft by placing too much faith/trust in Keenum, even if he looks good the rest of the year.

What I would want to avoid, to your point, is a mindset that is determined to go get a QB early in the draft that is not based on sound evaluation that he is a guy worthy of the pick and the time investment. The QB position, IMO, is very different that others. Almost any other position, a team can enter the draft determined to get their highest rated player at a position and have a reason to be confident that player will at least make the team better. QBs don't work that way.

I think the reason why teams miss on QBs in the draft so often is that they have predetermined to get one- overpay for him, while they really have no idea/reason to believe the player is likely to work out, but they don't want the fan base to freak out because QB wasn't addressed, and they don't fully explore other options in FA and in trade- which may be more costly in the short term but save the team four years of headaches and wheel-spinning.
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Old 10-31-2013   #506
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Also, as you have said yourself, teams were getting good trade values for guys they drafted low and developed.
Why waste your first round draft pick when you're not really sold on them?
Its not a waste if u get it right like sd and dallas did. As I said its evaluation. Starting with the cam newton class, it looks like carolina,cincy, and 49ers were right. The jury is still out on locker and ponder,gabbert is trash. Even withbthe failures of gabbert, jax cant afford to pass bridgewater or other qbs who may be rated as a franchise qb. A team can fool themselves like parcells did and take jake long 1st and decided to get chad henne in the 2nd passing on matt ryan. Well 5 yrs later, we seenhow thats worked out.
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Old 10-31-2013   #507
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

Maybe some insight into Kubiak and what we saw with Schaub and what we may see from Case on Sunday.
Quote:

(on calling plays for QB Case Keenum now that he’s seen him play in a game)
“Well, I think I’m getting to know him more and more each day. Obviously, as a coach, you’ve got a big game plan and I learned from Coach (Bill) Walsh, you can give them all of the game plan you want, but it’s your job to do what they know and do what they do well. He’s got a big plan on his plate. I watch him throughout the course of the week and try to get a really good feel for what I know he’s confident with. I also, I’ve always done it with my quarterbacks, I give them my call sheet on Friday morning and I have them mark my call sheet how they like things. Between him giving me feedback and me watching him, we try to come up with the things he does best.”
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Old 10-31-2013   #508
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
Its not a waste if u get it right like sd and dallas did. As I said its evaluation. Starting with the cam newton class, it looks like carolina,cincy, and 49ers were right. The jury is still out on locker and ponder,gabbert is trash. Even withbthe failures of gabbert, jax cant afford to pass bridgewater or other qbs who may be rated as a franchise qb. A team can fool themselves like parcells did and take jake long 1st and decided to get chad henne in the 2nd passing on matt ryan. Well 5 yrs later, we seenhow thats worked out.
Certainly with the new CBA, taking multiple shots at QBs in the 1st round is much more plausible... Before 2011, missing on a top 10 QB was a death nail because of the size of the contract. However, now it is a very manageable contract which not only means you aren't married to him but also that you can bring in/have competitions with him, etc... That pick no longer defines your team's identity for 4 or 5 years, unless you decide to let it.

So, from that standpoint, your point is even more true.
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Old 10-31-2013   #509
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I totally agree with Leebigeztx that I do not want the Texans to ignore the QB position early in the draft by placing too much faith/trust in Keenum, even if he looks good the rest of the year.

What I would want to avoid, to your point, is a mindset that is determined to go get a QB early in the draft that is not based on sound evaluation that he is a guy worthy of the pick and the time investment.

I think the reason why teams miss on QBs in the draft so often is that they have predetermined to get one- overpay for him, while they really have no idea/reason to believe the player is likely to work out,
Completely agree.

& if there is any real criticism of Smith, it's here. He's been here since 2007 & hasn't managed to stock-pile future draft picks. The currency for being able to move around in the draft & get "your guy."

He does fine, moving down & acquiring additional picks. But if we've got to move up to get the guy they believe will be a franchise player, we'll have to give up much of our draft, possibly some of our future draft to get him.

If we had a second first round pick for example, I wouldn't mind gambling with one to select a franchise QB. I'd hate to only have one, use it on a QB that doesn't work out & include our 2nd, 4th, & 5th to get him.

I'd also be upset if I ever found out they thought a guy was worth the cost, but didn't pull the trigger.

As others have mentioned, we've been losing players left & right the last three years & getting little in return in-so-much as future draft picks.
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Old 10-31-2013   #510
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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A team can fool themselves like parcells did and take jake long 1st and decided to get chad henne in the 2nd passing on matt ryan. Well 5 yrs later, we seenhow thats worked out.
I don't think you can lay that all on the GM & scouting. Jake Long & Chad Henne was a good plan. If that were Andy Reid, Sean Peyton, Jim Harbaugh, or Gary Kubiak coaching/developing those players, it would have gone very differently.
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Old 11-02-2013   #511
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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I don't think you can lay that all on the GM & scouting. Jake Long & Chad Henne was a good plan. If that were Andy Reid, Sean Peyton, Jim Harbaugh, or Gary Kubiak coaching/developing those players, it would have gone very differently.
The fact is the most important player touches the ball 60 times a game. When eli,ben,rodgers,and brees won sbs,who were their left tackles? Joe thomas is regarded as one of if not the best lt in football,yet his teams have been dismal. Why? They missed on quinn,passed on flacco,missed on weeden,and didn't want to give up a 2nd for rg3. You don't have a qb,your team will be sorry with the new rules.
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Old 11-02-2013   #512
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Why? They missed on quinn,passed on flacco,missed on weeden,and didn't want to give up a 2nd for rg3. You don't have a qb,your team will be sorry with the new rules.
Flacco wouldn't be anyone if he went to Cleveland, & Quin very well could have won a Super Bowl in Baltimore. The fact is we'll never really know, but you're saying the Browns missed on Quinn, Weeden, & every other QB they've had there when they may very well have ruined those guys.

There's more to it than just drafting a QB. He's got to fit & you have to support him. I'm sure Peyton Manning would have multiple SBs if he had a coach who knew how to build a team around him & actually help him get where he wanted to go. (Jim Mora... pfft). & I guarantee you Trent Dilfer couldn't have won a Super Bowl without that team & that coach.
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Old 11-02-2013   #513
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Its not a waste if u get it right like sd and dallas did. As I said its evaluation. Starting with the cam newton class, it looks like carolina,cincy, and 49ers were right. The jury is still out on locker and ponder,gabbert is trash. Even withbthe failures of gabbert, jax cant afford to pass bridgewater or other qbs who may be rated as a franchise qb. A team can fool themselves like parcells did and take jake long 1st and decided to get chad henne in the 2nd passing on matt ryan. Well 5 yrs later, we seenhow thats worked out.
Aren't you moving the goal posts here, Leebig?

Both Dalton and Kaepernick were second rounder; both of whom I thought had potential to be starters.

My point was about first rounders; on those, I only prefer to spend a high pick on "sure-fire" starters with great upside to become "franchise" QB; in recent drafts, that would be Luck, RG III, Newton, Bradford, and Stafford.
But with those guys, you've had to have a good draft position to start with; otherwise, you would have to pay too much to move up; it might cost your team dearly.

Even with Bradford, there's the risk with injury, let alone a guy like RG III.
Personally, I was never on board with trading the farm for him.
Look at the guys the Rams got in exchange:
In 2012, they got Michael Brockers, Janorie Jenkins, and Iseah Pead.
Brockers started 12 games in 2012 and 8 so far this year at DT (with 3.5 sacks).
Jenkins started 13 and 8 respectively (5 INTs - 3 for TDs; he also forced 3 fumbles and recovered one for a TD).
In 2013, they got Alec Ogletree, Stedman Bailey, and Zac Stacy.
Ogletree has started all 8 games, and is their leading solo tackler.
Bailey hasn't seen much playing time besides ST duties.
Pead has been hampered by injury, but Stacy rose to the top of the depth chart.
And the Rams still owns th Redskins' first round pick for next year.

That's a tough price to pay to move up just four notches.
What would the Texans have to pay for such a trade up?
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Old 11-02-2013   #514
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Certainly with the new CBA, taking multiple shots at QBs in the 1st round is much more plausible... Before 2011, missing on a top 10 QB was a death nail because of the size of the contract. However, now it is a very manageable contract which not only means you aren't married to him but also that you can bring in/have competitions with him, etc... That pick no longer defines your team's identity for 4 or 5 years, unless you decide to let it.

So, from that standpoint, your point is even more true.
Let's so a re-draft to see if all this is applicable to the Texans.
Last year, the highest drafted QB was EJ Manuel, at 16th overall.

Leebig and I, we both like his potential (Leebig more so than I); however, based on the trade value chart, at exactly 1,000 points, the Texans would have to give up the first and second draft choices (Hopkins and Swearinger.)

Personally, I wouldn't do it, not then, not now.
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Old 11-02-2013   #515
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

In 2012, even Tannehill was cost prohibitive to the Texans at 8th overall.
I didn't like him all that much to sell the farm to begin with.

Weeden, at 22nd, has always been a No-Go for me.
Instead, I suggested Wilson and/or Cousins.
They were both affordable and had none of the risk associated with the high cost to acquire a RG III or Tannehill.
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Old 11-02-2013   #516
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

In 2011, I correctly predicted that Newton would be the number one overall pick.

Locker at no 8 and Ponder at no 12 were definitely not worth it.
And to think that the Texans would have to forego Watt for them; do you realize how ridiculous the premium put on the QB position can be at times?

Gabbert, at no 10, was already declared a bust by Kiwitexan, and I was pretty close with his sentiment.

Instead, I was on board with Dalton at 35 and Kaepernick at 36.

So far, I've been able to avoid the pitfall of falling in love with a QB in the first round.

My choices cost less and have been producing more, wouldn't you agree?
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Old 11-02-2013   #517
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

In 2010, I liked Bradford, but there was no way I would give up the farm to trade up from 20.

I said "No" to Tebow even though I liked him very much as a college QB; I never thought his game would translate to the pro.

I'm glad the Texans drafted Kareem Jackson instead.

I didn't like Clausen, even at 48th overall;
I prefer McCoy at 85th; I saw his floor as a good backup QB.
A late third was a good spot for him, while I rated him higher than Clausen.
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Old 11-02-2013   #518
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

In 2009, I wasn't paying much attention to QBs;
I only stated that either Cushing or Matthew would be fine for me, even though I tend to rate players a little lower (and ending up not having enough guys on the big board); I was just being cautious.

How much would it cost for the Texans to move up from 15 to 1?
I wouldn't do it no matter what.

To move up to no 5 to get Sanchez?
We ought to be thankful the Texans didn't do it.

Josh Freeman at 17 was feasible, but I didn't watch any of his college games, so I had no comment.
The Texans wouldn't have drafted a QB with Schaub under contract at that time anyway.
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Old 11-02-2013   #519
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

The same goes for 2008; the Texans can't afford to trade up to no 3 for Matt Ryan.

It just happened that I watched a bunch of QB play this year.
I even commented that I liked Ryan even though I estimated that he was in the spread about 70% of the time at Boston College.

I had pegged D Brown as the 8th OT to be drafted (even though my sentiment was that he was a better prospect than that).
I also noted that he would be a nice fit with the Texans ZBS, the way he can operates on the second level.
With Schaub on the roster, it makes even less sense to try to move up for Ryan.

Flacco at 18, I didn't have a problem with, if your team needs a QB.
Once on a while, I would agree with ThreeToePeed (a poster who used to frequent the draft forum), who liked Flacco a little more than I did.
Neither of us worried about him playing at Delaware; so you see that I do evaluate players according to their competition and was able to dig out the lesser-known names.
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Old 11-02-2013   #520
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Default Re: Who gets the start at QB after the bye?

Obviously I wasn't impressed with the 2007 class, I agreed with TexanMike when he first presented a trade scenario for Matt Schaub.

Personally, I thought it was a little costly, giving up two seconds and a couple of spots in the draft.

Jamarcus Russell was one of the hypes I could never figure out; I didn't think Quinn can be a starter in the NFL either at 22nd.

Kolb (drafted at no. 36), a product from UH, I had a problem with him holding on to the ball too long; I even noted that he took more sacks in college than Carr did with the Texans (prorated to a 16-game schedule, and per pass attempts.)
That's not going to cut it in the pro.
And why does a QB hold on the ball too long?
I don't even need to answer that question.

My wanting to trade for Schaub ought to tell you that I have no homerism.
Keenum is a much better QB than Kolb ever was.
I even said so after Keenum went undrafted while Kolb was having chances to prove himself as a pro.
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