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Old 12-15-2013   #601
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
I really agree with this post and like your optimistic views. I'm usually quite the opposite when it comes to this regime. The draft consists of more than just the 1st rd. This is where Rick has failed. Exhibit A, the 2013 draft.
Yes... his record does not look good after round one. Still, though, there are signs that some of that is not on Rick Smith as much as on the coaching staff:

for example: Chris Jones, McManis, Shelley Smith come to mind as late round guys that always looked good to me but couldn't get on the field and went to other teams and had some success.

> I think Ben Tate, Barwin, Quin, James Casey, Brandon Brooks were all very good picks that the coaches quit on, moved away from, or failed to put in the right position.

He's also the guy that went after and got Arian Foster as an UDFA- outbidding the Bears for him.

A GM's job is to get the players the coaches need to execute their system. It's hard to separate him from Kubiak... I tend to think he has a good eye for talent and believe he is very capable of making the hard choice and making business decisions instead of emotional ones. My biggest concern is that his youth and lack of experience outside of the Denver West Coast system will make it difficult for him to acquire the right head coach this off-season and be able to work effectively with that person immediately.
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Old 12-15-2013   #602
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Normally I would agree with you, but I think Brigdewater is the only qb in this draft with a chance to be a franchise type qb.


Sent from the future...
I like Teddy. I really do. Right now there are questions about him declaring for the draft. That scares me. Does he think he won't be #1 overall? Does he not want to come here? The suddenness of that breaking news has me confused. Hell maybe we're all wrong and he's not the best QB available? He sure looks better than the rest of the pack. He looks a bit wirey but I think he fills out eventually.

Like I said in a different post, it's just odd that whenever we pick #1 there's a QB and a DE fighting for that top pick. Maybe I'm shell shocked but I do know that our future isn't Case or Schaub.
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Old 12-16-2013   #603
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

There is one major reason why I would take a QB instead of a superior talent with the first pick: it i just about the only chance you get at a franchise QB. Once they are in the league they practically never hit FA - and if they do there are several teams competing over him. Or you have to trade away multiple first round picks to get one that has problems (and thus is traded).

And nobody in a draft is a guarantee. Clowney seems like the best player, but there are major questionmarks about his drive.

Sure, you could luck out with a later round gem. But the Russell Wilsons and Tom Bradys are rare. Guys like Schaub and Dalton are actually the bright spots...

There is always luck involved in getting a franchise QB - but you greatly improve your chances by taking the QB that analysts agree on being the best in class.
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Old 12-16-2013   #604
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
There is one major reason why I would take a QB instead of a superior talent with the first pick: it i just about the only chance you get at a franchise QB. Once they are in the league they practically never hit FA - and if they do there are several teams competing over him. Or you have to trade away multiple first round picks to get one that has problems (and thus is traded).

And nobody in a draft is a guarantee. Clowney seems like the best player, but there are major questionmarks about his drive.

Sure, you could luck out with a later round gem. But the Russell Wilsons and Tom Bradys are rare. Guys like Schaub and Dalton are actually the bright spots...

There is always luck involved in getting a franchise QB - but you greatly improve your chances by taking the QB that analysts agree on being the best in class.
If you dont think Bridgewater is the best player you dont take him. Those kinds of decisions lead to Carr/Peppers kinds of mistakes.

You can use your high 2nd rd pick to trade into the 1st rd and get your franchise QB. If BoB wants to win now, you take Clowney and I would try to trade a 2014 2nd and a 2015 1st to trade up for one of the QB's (Bortles/Mettenberger/Hundley) and maybe get a 2013 3rd for my trouble.

Trading down in this deep draft would be the best option.
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Old 12-16-2013   #605
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
You can use your high 2nd rd pick to trade into the 1st rd and get your franchise QB. If BoB wants to win now, you take Clowney and I would try to trade a 2014 2nd and a 2015 1st to trade up for one of the QB's (Bortles/Mettenberger/Hundley) and maybe get a 2013 3rd for my trouble.
I don't disagree with your premise about BPA, but I keep seeing you say this (bolded above). What makes any of those guys better "franchise" options than Bridgewater? You're talking about trading multiple future picks for a late 1st round pick instead of just using your #1 on Bridgewater. You realize that you're giving up way more for the other QB in that scenario.

Why is taking Clowney and giving up next year's 1st for a QB "winning now" but taking Bridgewater #1 and a pass rusher #33 is not?
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Old 12-16-2013   #606
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
You can use your high 2nd rd pick to trade into the 1st rd and get your franchise QB. If BoB wants to win now, you take Clowney and I would try to trade a 2014 2nd and a 2015 1st to trade up for one of the QB's (Bortles/Mettenberger/Hundley) and maybe get a 2013 3rd for my trouble.
I think I would rather see them move into the approx. 20 range of the draft with this year's 2nd and 3rd, fill the hole from losing a pick with a yeoman FA and not leverage the future so much.

For example, Winston is going to be a FA and is playing this year on a 1 year, $2 mil deal.

As a side note, it seems to me some folks are projecting too many QBs going in the 1st - Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel, Carr, Mettenberger, Hundley. You have to go back to 1983 to find a 6 QB in the 1st draft. There has only been 1 5 QB draft since. About 2.25 is average.
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Old 12-16-2013   #607
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
I don't disagree with your premise about BPA, but I keep seeing you say this (bolded above). What makes any of those guys better "franchise" options than Bridgewater? You're talking about trading multiple future picks for a late 1st round pick instead of just using your #1 on Bridgewater. You realize that you're giving up way more for the other QB in that scenario.

Why is taking Clowney and giving up next year's 1st for a QB "winning now" but taking Bridgewater #1 and a pass rusher #33 is not?
There's not a better pass rusher in this draft than Clowney.

I dont think Bridgewater is worth 1-1. Better Value is Clowney at 1-1 and Bortles/Mettenberger etc.... in late rd 1 or 2-1. IMHO

Where we disagree is Bridgewater is a 1-1 talent.

Tell me the pass rusher you can find at 33 that is even close to the equivalent of Clowney? I can give you a QB that's close to if not better than Bridgewater at 2-1. (Mettenberger/Murray)
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Old 12-16-2013   #608
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
There's not a better pass rusher in this draft than Clowney.

I dont think Bridgewater is worth 1-1. Better Value is Clowney at 1-1 and Bortles/Mettenberger etc.... in late rd 1 or 2-1. IMHO

Where we disagree is Bridgewater is a 1-1 talent.
I'm not sold on Bridgewater being a sure fire 1-1 talent but I'm intrigued. I have no problem with your opinion that he's not.

The hangup is that you see trading #33 and a 2015 1st for Bortles/Mettenberger as a better pick than Bridgewater at #1. Where is the value there?

Now if you're saying Clowney #1 and Mettenberger/Boyd at #33 then I take no issue. But passing on Bridgewater and then trading up to take a QB makes no sense at all.

What you're basically saying is that Bridgewater is not worth #1 so you don't want him, but Bortles/Mettenberger/etc are worth (2) 1st round picks?
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Old 12-16-2013   #609
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I think I would rather see them move into the approx. 20 range of the draft with this year's 2nd and 3rd, fill the hole from losing a pick with a yeoman FA and not leverage the future so much.

For example, Winston is going to be a FA and is playing this year on a 1 year, $2 mil deal.

As a side note, it seems to me some folks are projecting too many QBs going in the 1st - Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel, Carr, Mettenberger, Hundley. You have to go back to 1983 to find a 6 QB in the 1st draft. There has only been 1 5 QB draft since. About 2.25 is average.
I would take Winston on that deal. I doubt Rick will though. Not enough cap room, (Who's fault is that) too many burned bridges.
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Old 12-16-2013   #610
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
Tell me the pass rusher you can find at 33 that is even close to the equivalent of Clowney? I can give you a QB that's close to if not better than Bridgewater at 2-1. (Mettenberger/Murray)
Clowney is easily the best pass rusher in the draft at his position. That wasn't the issue. You were talking about passing on Bridgewater but then trading up for a QB. That's what I didn't agree with. If you don't think Bridgewater is worth #1 then that's fine. But then why would you think any of those other guys is worth (2) 1st round picks?
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Old 12-16-2013   #611
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
I don't disagree with your premise about BPA, but I keep seeing you say this (bolded above). What makes any of those guys better "franchise" options than Bridgewater? You're talking about trading multiple future picks for a late 1st round pick instead of just using your #1 on Bridgewater. You realize that you're giving up way more for the other QB in that scenario.

Why is taking Clowney and giving up next year's 1st for a QB "winning now" but taking Bridgewater #1 and a pass rusher #33 is not?
Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I think I would rather see them move into the approx. 20 range of the draft with this year's 2nd and 3rd, fill the hole from losing a pick with a yeoman FA and not leverage the future so much.

For example, Winston is going to be a FA and is playing this year on a 1 year, $2 mil deal.

As a side note, it seems to me some folks are projecting too many QBs going in the 1st - Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel, Carr, Mettenberger, Hundley. You have to go back to 1983 to find a 6 QB in the 1st draft. There has only been 1 5 QB draft since. About 2.25 is average.
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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
There's not a better pass rusher in this draft than Clowney.

I dont think Bridgewater is worth 1-1. Better Value is Clowney at 1-1 and Bortles/Mettenberger etc.... in late rd 1 or 2-1. IMHO

Where we disagree is Bridgewater is a 1-1 talent.

Tell me the pass rusher you can find at 33 that is even close to the equivalent of Clowney? I can give you a QB that's close to if not better than Bridgewater at 2-1. (Mettenberger/Murray)
There are quite a few folks who have many questions about Teddy. The many questions about Teddy suggest there is more of chance of him being a bust vs being an OK NFL QB. There are not many in the camp of he will be a GREAT QB. Bridgewater has been the media darling and their consensus #1 draft pick all year and yet he didn't appear in the Top 10 voting for the Heisman. Bill Walsh always said, believe what your eyes and ears are telling you.

I think it's clear that Winston's skills have diminished over the years, the Texans may have chose the right to cut Winston but failed miserably in trying to replace him. I think moving up to take a top 5 OT is the better way to go. If the Texans had drafted Bulaga or Glenn and fixed the problem they wouldn't have resorted to the all to familiar let's find a band aid we can afford and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

If Bortles doesn't come out there is a very good chance that Mettenberger could be the best QB in this draft class.
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