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Old 02-09-2014   #41
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
Last year we were eligible for 4 compensatory picks but only got 2, so I'm doubtful that we get two 5th and one 7th round picks. If we did get 3 comp. picks then we could really use our own picks to trade up for an extra 3rd and/or 4th round picks. There will be some good value prospects in those rounds. With as many holes as this team has though, I'll be very happy if we get one 5th. And hopefully we don't waste these pick(s) like we did last year.
Thank you, I totally agree. I say we will get one sixth round comp pick and maaaybe a 7th too.
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Old 02-09-2014   #42
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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Last year we were eligible for 4 compensatory picks but only got 2, so I'm doubtful that we get two 5th and one 7th round picks.
The Texans lost 4 FAs in 2012 (Mario, Allen, Brisiel, and Dreessen) and signed two (Bradie James and Donnie Jones) for a net loss of 2 FAs. Some (including myself) didn't think the minimum contracts that James and Jones signed would count in the compensatory formula. We were wrong.

In 2013, the Texans FA loss-gain was a net +3. 6 lost (Barwin, Casey, Quin, Forsett, Ball, and Donnie Jones) with 3 gained (Reed, Lechler, and Greg Jones). Donnie Jones signed for less than $1 million, so it's possible that he wouldn't count. But, he signed for less than $1 million in 2012 and counted against the Texans, so I would include him in the equation based upon that.

The question is what round do these FAs fall into the formula?
Casey averaged $6 million on his deal, which I think would make his value in the 4th round. Casey and Quin both averaged over $4.5 million, which would likely land their value in the 5th. Forsett, Ball, and Donnie Jones would all value as 7th rounders. Ed Reed's contract of nearly $5 million would be valued in the 5th. Lechler and Greg Jones would hold 7th round value. Reed would cancel the pick for Casey (highest in same round) and Lechler and Gereg Jones would cancel the picks for Forsett and Ball. Leaving the Texans with a 4th (Barwin), 5th (Quin), and 7th (Donnie Jones).
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Old 02-09-2014   #43
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

Another factor into determining if a comp pick is awarded, apparently, is also player performance. None of our losses really contributed to their team besides Quin. I also don't think Barwin was signed for the type of contract that would lead to a high comp pick nor did he really do that much on the field so I can't imagine getting a 4th for "losing" him.
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Old 02-09-2014   #44
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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Another factor into determining if a comp pick is awarded, apparently, is also player performance. None of our losses really contributed to their team besides Quin. I also don't think Barwin was signed for the type of contract that would lead to a high comp pick nor did he really do that much on the field so I can't imagine getting a 4th for "losing" him.
Mainly, the compensation is based upon contract. And Barwin did start, had 59 tackles, 5 sacks, and an int. Worth $6 million/year? Probably not. But that hardly qualifies as not doing much. Ed Reed didn't do much for the Texans, and I could see his value somewhat discounted. But the Texans will still have net +3 FAs.

If you can come up with an example of a player getting a $6 million/year contract, starting all year, and not getting a 4th round pick in compensation (providing the team had a net FA loss), I would like to see it. Otherwise, your doubts don't have much basis in actual facts.
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Old 02-09-2014   #45
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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Mainly, the compensation is based upon contract. And Barwin did start, had 59 tackles, 5 sacks, and an int. Worth $6 million/year? Probably not. But that hardly qualifies as not doing much. Ed Reed didn't do much for the Texans, and I could see his value somewhat discounted. But the Texans will still have net +3 FAs.

If you can come up with an example of a player getting a $6 million/year contract, starting all year, and not getting a 4th round pick in compensation (providing the team had a net FA loss), I would like to see it. Otherwise, your doubts don't have much basis in actual facts.
Nope I don't really know or care enough to research that and I do hope we get all these comp picks that everyone is projecting. I guess I'm just pessimistic about comp picks after a couple of years where everyone was all amped about all the picks we'd get then it'd turn out we got way less than people were saying. This happened just last year. I'm not saying I'll eat my hat if I'm wrong but I will bet something that we aren't getting this huge pile of comp picks for losing scrubs while we also signed a good amount of free agents, 2 of which started all year (Lechler and Mays) I hope I'm wrong though and I guess we will see! I'll be back to eat crow or say I told ya so when we find out.

Actually 3 started all year, forgot about Jones.
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Old 02-09-2014   #46
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

Mays was cut by the Broncos and won't count as a free agent pickup. He is considered a street free agent much like Peyton Manning didn't factor into the compensatory equation last year.

I get through your several posts in the thread that you doubt the Texans will receive these picks. What I don't see is any real basis for your concerns. If you don't want to bother educating yourself on the topic, why bother to comment extensively?
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Old 02-09-2014   #47
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

The NFL makes compensatory picks convoluted w/o any real reason for both teams and fans, but given this is season for hardcore or even 'nerd' fans, I don't get people who want to waste everyone's time posting what they "believe' versus at learning something about the process.
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Old 02-09-2014   #48
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

Nobody even knows the formula the NFL uses so there's really no "education" available. My reasoning for saying we won't receive all these comp picks is based in historical comp picks we've been awarded. I remember Dunta Robinson was supposed to bring us some awesome comp pick and we got Mr. Irrelevent. I guess I'll just go with y'all and stop even thinking about it. Better let all the mockers know to expect at least an additional 4th, 5th, and 7th.
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Old 02-09-2014   #49
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

There's a guy named Adam JT that is great at predicting comp picks. I haven't seen his predictions this yr. If anybody knows where/when I can find his predictions let me know.

From the NFLPA info he uses to make his predictions I believe he is an agent or in the NFLPA office.
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Old 02-09-2014   #50
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
There's a guy named Adam JT that is great at predicting comp picks. I haven't seen his predictions this yr. If anybody knows where/when I can find his predictions let me know.

From the NFLPA info he uses to make his predictions I believe he is an agent or in the NFLPA office.
The guy in the link I posted CLAIMS that his guesstimation is based on the work of AdamJT...and no Adam was just a geek who started to notice patterns and tried to apply what he noticed.

Still really no reason for the NFL not make it more direct than it does.
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Old 02-09-2014   #51
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
The NFL makes compensatory picks convoluted w/o any real reason for both teams and fans, but given this is season for hardcore or even 'nerd' fans, I don't get people who want to waste everyone's time posting what they "believe' versus at learning something about the process.
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The guy in the link I posted CLAIMS that his guesstimation is based on the work of AdamJT...and no Adam was just a geek who started to notice patterns and tried to apply what he noticed.

Still really no reason for the NFL not make it more direct than it does.
I can definitely see reasons why the NFL wouldn't want the teams fully understanding the methodology. Teams cutting players by certain dates, not starting them all 16 games / pulling them in games already decided, veterans negotiating weird back-loaded contracts, etc. It's harder to "massage the numbers" if you don't know what you're aiming for.

Hell, maybe I'm nave and the only ones who don't know are the fans.
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Old 02-09-2014   #52
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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I can definitely see reasons why the NFL wouldn't want the teams fully understanding the methodology. Teams cutting players by certain dates, not starting them all 16 games / pulling them in games already decided, veterans negotiating weird back-loaded contracts, etc. It's harder to "massage the numbers" if you don't know what you're aiming for.

Hell, maybe I'm nave and the only ones who don't know are the fans.
Not nave, just spot on.
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Old 02-09-2014   #53
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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Hell, maybe I'm nave and the only ones who don't know are the fans.
I remember AdamJT13 had a blog piece on how NFL GMs were frustrated by the formula. Ted Thompson, Packer GM, said he gave up trying to figure it out. The real issue is the players making low salaries near the minimum. Sometimes they count, sometimes not. And that has a ripple effect because the formula is based on net losses as the most important factor and not total value.

I think the formula is flawed in that respect. Go back to the Texans losing Dunta in 2010. Yes, the signed Wade Smith and Neil Rackers, which eliminated the Texans from receiving a compensatory pick. But had the formula been based off of total contract value, the Texans lost more in Robinson than gained in Smith and Rackers and likely deserved a pick.
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Old 02-16-2014   #54
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

My head is spinning from reading this thread. I'm just going to believe we are getting a 4th, 5th and 7th. WOOHOO!!!!
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Old 02-17-2014   #55
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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My head is spinning from reading this thread. I'm just going to believe we are getting a 4th, 5th and 7th. WOOHOO!!!!
We are likely to also get a supplemental compensatory pick. Every year, the league awards 32 compensatory picks, first by free agent losses to teams, awarded at the end of rounds. Many years, the number awarded is less than 32, so the league starts with that year's draft order and awards picks until it totals 32.

For example, the year we got the Mr. Irrelevant pick (Cheta Ozwagaloogey), the Texans were picking 11th overall. The league only gave out 21 compensatory picks that year, so at the end of the draft, they added 11 picks in the order of the 1st round.

Not that it's a huge deal, but a late 7th is a good spot to pick a project guy or special teams players. So I'm thinking we will get 4 picks, 3 compensatory picks and 1 supplemental.
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Old 02-17-2014   #56
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

Are the draft compensatory picks announced at the Combine that begins in a few days? If not when are they announced? I'm hoping for the best but will be surprised if we get anything more than a single 6th round pick. Alot of these picks seem to be completely random and depend on if Goodell likes you or not.
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Old 02-17-2014   #57
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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Are the draft compensatory picks announced at the Combine that begins in a few days? If not when are they announced?
March 18th in 2013, likely end of March 2014.
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Old 02-18-2014   #58
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

I don't know how many compensatory picks the Texans will get, if any, but I hope they do a better job using those picks than they did last year. It's sickening to think that the highest compensatory pick they ever had (3rd rounder for Mario) was wasted on Sam Montgomery. I've said it before, the loss of FA's the last 2 years and the Texans inability to replace those losses is one of the biggest factors in their demise this past season. You have to have depth if you want to survive the injuries that come with a long NFL season.
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Old 02-19-2014   #59
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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I don't know how many compensatory picks the Texans will get, if any, but I hope they do a better job using those picks than they did last year. It's sickening to think that the highest compensatory pick they ever had (3rd rounder for Mario) was wasted on Sam Montgomery.
It was the 95th pick in the draft. History shows that you're more likely to get a Sam Montgomery there than a contributor. The Texans need to draft better overall. The last few drafts have been particulary weak. Take away JJ Watt in 2011, and it's easier to see why the Texans slipped in 2013 from looking at these drafts. Needless to say, this is a very important draft for this franchise.
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Old 02-19-2014   #60
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Default Re: Texans compensatory picks 2014.

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It was the 95th pick in the draft. History shows that you're more likely to get a Sam Montgomery there than a contributor. The Texans need to draft better overall. The last few drafts have been particulary weak. Take away JJ Watt in 2011, and it's easier to see why the Texans slipped in 2013 from looking at these drafts. Needless to say, this is a very important draft for this franchise.
Yep, pretty much every attempt in the two to three drafts to fill some need has pretty much flopped (or is no better than neutral). In most positions, the Texans did have a plan pretty much on every current weakness and in a couple cases have invested pretty well in picks (see OLb) or money (see safety).
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