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Old 09-19-2013   #21
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
What position should we be looking for?

I understand that some wants to look for that special QB.

What else?

ILB maybe?
CB maybe?
OG? OT?

Rank the positions of need, if you will.
The only way to get continuously better is BPA
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Old 09-19-2013   #22
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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The only way to get continuously better is BPA
Agreed

How I would draft would depend on what the 2015 draft class at QB looks like. If it isn't as good as 2014, then QB would be my pick.

I haven't started studying next yrs draft, but OLB seems to be strong and unless Mercilus improves I really like Van Noy. He looks like a natural pass rusher. He will probabl only run 4.7 at the combine which might make him available when the Texans pick.

What does the draft offer in the way of CB depth?
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Old 09-19-2013   #23
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Old 09-19-2013   #24
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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Agreed

How I would draft would depend on what the 2015 draft class at QB looks like. If it isn't as good as 2014, then QB would be my pick.

I haven't started studying next yrs draft, but OLB seems to be strong and unless Mercilus improves I really like Van Noy. He looks like a natural pass rusher. He will probabl only run 4.7 at the combine which might make him available when the Texans pick.

What does the draft offer in the way of CB depth?
From what I read, this CB class could be quite deep.

As far as the Texans' philosophy is concerned, I think it's a mix of BPA and needs according to salary cap implications.

During the off-season, they decide on some cuts and FA signings they can afford, then they fill the rest of the positions of needs with the draft based on BPA. They also draft with an eye on the future.
For example, they took Brooks Reed when Mario's contract looks to be out of whack in another year; they took Mercilus in case Barwin can't be resigned in the near future.
They cut Wilson (with a year remaining on his contract) and did not resign Pollard (who was a RFA).
They moved Quin and signed Manning to replace those guys.
They signed JJo to fill the void that the move of Quin to safety created.

It's an all-of-the above approach.
They try to fill the needs with affordable FAs.
The fewer the positions of needs entering the draft, the better they can afford to go BPA.
At least, that's the way I see it.
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Old 09-19-2013   #25
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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The only way to get continuously better is BPA
Totally disagree, for example if BPA was a RB, we would not use a first. It depend on several things including the quality of the pick, is he a franchise type player or just BPA? It depends on our weaknesses. If BPA is a QB (looking at 2013 draft) we are decent with MS, Keenum and Yates so you don't ignore Hopkins. You also have to consider salary cap down the road for player you select. Also like 76 said, you might not choose a safety high if Ed Reed is sitting there in FA.

A corner, LT and Qb may take longer to develop so you might draft another position if it is also a high priority. There may be other excellent players at a lower round you could select freeing up higher pick. For example I like QB McCarron in late first but if David Fales appears to be available in second
(currently rated #76) I might go another way in first & hope to get Fales later.

I hope Texans soon get to level of BPA each round but not there yet.
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Old 09-19-2013   #26
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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Totally disagree, for example if BPA was a RB, we would not use a first. It depend on several things including the quality of the pick, is he a franchise type player or just BPA? It depends on our weaknesses. If BPA is a QB (looking at 2013 draft) we are decent with MS, Keenum and Yates so you don't ignore Hopkins. You also have to consider salary cap down the road for player you select. Also like 76 said, you might not choose a safety high if Ed Reed is sitting there in FA.

A corner, LT and Qb may take longer to develop so you might draft another position if it is also a high priority. There may be other excellent players at a lower round you could select freeing up higher pick. For example I like QB McCarron in late first but if David Fales appears to be available in second
(currently rated #76) I might go another way in first & hope to get Fales later.

I hope Texans soon get to level of BPA each round but not there yet.
The Texans hisorically say they use rds1-3 for BPA. Reality is they draft for need. Hopkins/KJ/Watt/Mercilus/Tate etc... need picks.

If you like McCarron alot you're going to have to spend a 1st on him. I just hope they dont draft JM. Great college QB, who I dont see panning out in the pro's.

There will be pressure to pick JM. Since the majority of the Texans fanbase are Aggies JM will appease them. BoB is all about that.
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Old 09-19-2013   #27
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

Don't cut Reed or OD let them stay. Cut OD? Very nice.
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Old 09-19-2013   #28
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

I'm thinking this is the year to draft Schaub's replacement. I can see the makings of some draft mistakes at the top of the round.
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Old 09-19-2013   #29
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
The Texans hisorically say they use rds1-3 for BPA. Reality is they draft for need. Hopkins/KJ/Watt/Mercilus/Tate etc... need picks.

If you like McCarron alot you're going to have to spend a 1st on him. I just hope they dont draft JM. Great college QB, who I dont see panning out in the pro's.

There will be pressure to pick JM. Since the majority of the Texans fanbase are Aggies JM will appease them. BoB is all about that.
Agree, prior to game against A&M AJ was rated in low 50s and has moved to 44. I would spend a first on him.

Not so sure I agree on Manziel who imo will go pro for 2014, he can make all throws, is extremely accurate and unbelievable mobile. I have other QBs I want before him. I would be surprised if he is still on board at #32; someone will reach for him. This could be a deep draft for QBs if certain players like Bridgewater come out. I think 6 QBs as of now could go first round.

McNair did not appease fans when he selected Mario over Bush.
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Old 09-19-2013   #30
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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Don't cut Reed or OD let them stay. Cut OD? Very nice.
Gary I like OD and he is fan favorite however under the new CBA his 2014 cap hit $6.25 m is way too much. He is an 8 year vet & 31 YOA Nov 9th. 27 YOA (August '13) Garrett Graham 7 for 57 yds 2 TDs 6'3" 243 looks way good. Sunday he was 3 of 5 for 30 and a TD. If Hopkins, Posey and Martin are good, I hesitate to keep OD as I think passes to WR will increase. To work the cap, we have to move young cheaper guys into certain starting roles.
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Old 09-19-2013   #31
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

I think it is far too early to be calling Sam Montgomery and Trevardo Williams busts, personally. They weren't expected to be starters out the gate, in any case.

I think DE will be a possible target depending on how they handle Antonio Smith, but also I am confident that either Jared Crick or Tim Jamison could take over as a starter opposite Watt as well. Still, depth is always valuable on the defensive front, so I could see either a DE or NT getting picked at some point in the first three rounds if the value is right.

ILB is a position I would like to see them target, and we will eventually need another safety and CB talent.

OL is something that, in my opinion, teams should be adding almost every year in the draft, just not necessarily early all the time. Depth is vitally important at all the OL positions.

TE is going to be a need sooner than later, but I am generally not a fan of first round TEs...but again it's a question of value and draft position.

QB of the future is always tough, but I would trust the FO should they choose to select one.

I have a feeling Tate will be gone, so RB will get addressed somethere between rounds 3-5 I would guess.

Really, it's anyones guess at this point. It should be clearer by the end of the season, I'm sure.
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Old 09-20-2013   #32
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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I think it is far too early to be calling Sam Montgomery and Trevardo Williams busts, personally. They weren't expected to be starters out the gate, in any case.

I think DE will be a possible target depending on how they handle Antonio Smith, but also I am confident that either Jared Crick or Tim Jamison could take over as a starter opposite Watt as well. Still, depth is always valuable on the defensive front, so I could see either a DE or NT getting picked at some point in the first three rounds if the value is right.

ILB is a position I would like to see them target, and we will eventually need another safety and CB talent.

OL is something that, in my opinion, teams should be adding almost every year in the draft, just not necessarily early all the time. Depth is vitally important at all the OL positions.

TE is going to be a need sooner than later, but I am generally not a fan of first round TEs...but again it's a question of value and draft position.

QB of the future is always tough, but I would trust the FO should they choose to select one.

I have a feeling Tate will be gone, so RB will get addressed somethere between rounds 3-5 I would guess.

Really, it's anyones guess at this point. It should be clearer by the end of the season, I'm sure.
Both OLB if not busts have not fulfilled the job they were drafted to perform imo. Montgomery seem to be in coaches doghouse from first OTA and T was to be a speed specialist disrupting QB.

I can see a DE in later rounds but no nose as MItchell and McClain are ok. I do not see Smith returning. Replace OD sooner than later due to OD's cap hit next 2 years with Garrett Graham We are good at rotating TEs onto the roster.

I am okay with Foster, Wood and another trainee in 2015. Hard to see Smith drafting a RB after success of UDFAs.

Enjoyed the back & forth.
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Old 09-20-2013   #33
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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I do not see Smith returning. Replace OD sooner than later due to OD's cap hit next 2 years with Garrett Graham We are good at rotating TEs onto the roster.
I think you get too aggressive with projections of cuts/not re-signing players. It is not as easy as saying well we have someone at the position so they'll be good enough and we save money. Smith makes money because his play is better by far than most With the free agent market the way it was last off-season and his age his cap hit can be severely reduced with a new contract.

OD is a situation beyond cap hit alone. You have to consider the impact on free agents, contract extensions and restructuring. Players aren't going to favor a team who doesn't deliver on contracts unless there has been a reduction in play quality. His contract only minimally goes up next year. It is not some giant balloon amount everyone knew wouldn't be paid. Instead of a cut, barring a letdown in production, he is also a target for an extension with lower salaries commensurate with new contracts.
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Old 09-20-2013   #34
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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I think you get too aggressive with projections of cuts/not re-signing players. It is not as easy as saying well we have someone at the position so they'll be good enough and we save money. Smith makes money because his play is better by far than most With the free agent market the way it was last off-season and his age his cap hit can be severely reduced with a new contract.

OD is a situation beyond cap hit alone. You have to consider the impact on free agents, contract extensions and restructuring. Players aren't going to favor a team who doesn't deliver on contracts unless there has been a reduction in play quality. His contract only minimally goes up next year. It is not some giant balloon amount everyone knew wouldn't be paid. Instead of a cut, barring a letdown in production, he is also a target for an extension with lower salaries commensurate with new contracts.
Ninja turns 32 Oct 21st so 33 just after 2014 season begins. Can he still play? Yep but this is type of player I want to see moved especially at his current $9m cap. Could he sign at $3 m for two years sure but he can get much more. His bonus would have to be prorated and I just don't want to be in dead money hell like we use to be.

OD increase is not what you should look at but his cap hit each year $5.75 and $6.25m. We get rest of this season to see how Graham progresses, so far very good. If we are not aggressive, we will not be able to pay guys like Watt. I think Smith has been good at paying the bucks to the stars and signing low pay, possible high return guys in FA like Reed, Mays, Greg Jones and Lechler. Allowing Walter, Dreesen, Winston & Briesel to leave was another plus. I think my position is supported by UDFAs making roster. I am not saying we are in bad shape in regards to cap but need to remain on top with Chris Olsen.
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Old 09-20-2013   #35
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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We could do without the circus, but the guy is basically a Michael Vick who can make throws. Why not?
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Old 09-21-2013   #36
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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The Texans hisorically say they use rds1-3 for BPA. Reality is they draft for need. Hopkins/KJ/Watt/Mercilus/Tate etc... need picks.
Nailed it! One thing you can count on is Rick Smith the day before the draft lecturing the masses on how important it is to take the BPA. Then he proceeds to the draft room and first thing Texans do is reach for a positions of needs. They talk the talk but they certainly don't walk the walk.
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Old 09-21-2013   #37
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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I think you get too aggressive with projections of cuts/not re-signing players. It is not as easy as saying well we have someone at the position so they'll be good enough and we save money. Smith makes money because his play is better by far than most With the free agent market the way it was last off-season and his age his cap hit can be severely reduced with a new contract.

OD is a situation beyond cap hit alone. You have to consider the impact on free agents, contract extensions and restructuring. Players aren't going to favor a team who doesn't deliver on contracts unless there has been a reduction in play quality. His contract only minimally goes up next year. It is not some giant balloon amount everyone knew wouldn't be paid. Instead of a cut, barring a letdown in production, he is also a target for an extension with lower salaries commensurate with new contracts.
I think it is a little more complicated than this. Almost all player decisions are based on making the most money (why Ed Reed is not a Raven). The biggest problem facing the Texans starting the 2014 league year is they have 38 players under contract and with Cushing's new contract and AJ restructure the Texans will start the 2014 new year approx $12 million under the cap. $12 million to sign 15 players, that doesn't do much, in fact it does very little for a 53 man roster. This pretty much mirrors the the start of the 2012 & 2013 seasons. No big FA contracts or signings, only allows for vet and rookie minimums and the Texans STILL have to restructure every year. Don't be surprised to see Smith and Daniels go the way of Barwin, Quin and Casey because they simply can't afford them. This will be the deciding factor.
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Old 09-21-2013   #38
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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I think it is a little more complicated than this. Almost all player decisions are based on making the most money (why Ed Reed is not a Raven). The biggest problem facing the Texans starting the 2014 league year is they have 38 players under contract and with Cushing's new contract and AJ restructure the Texans will start the 2014 new year approx $12 million under the cap. $12 million to sign 15 players, that doesn't do much, in fact it does very little for a 53 man roster. This pretty much mirrors the the start of the 2012 & 2013 seasons. No big FA contracts or signings, only allows for vet and rookie minimums and the Texans STILL have to restructure every year. Don't be surprised to see Smith and Daniels go the way of Barwin, Quin and Casey because they simply can't afford them. This will be the deciding factor.
Yep,

For some reason the other top teams (SF/Seattle/NE/Denver/Chicago etc....) seem to be able to make moves to add big time FA's. The Texans always seem to be up against the cap. I dont know if this is due to Bob/ Olson/Rick/Gary's philosophy or they just aren't very good at cap management.

I've got a feeling they will try to keep the core together for 1 more yr. Then when is comes time to re-sign Watt there will be major cuts. Schaub/AJ/OD etc... This is one reason either they will draft the QB of the future or maybe they see T.J or Case as the future.

Anyway there is a 2 yr window. IMHO Unless Case becomes another Bady/Wilson etc....
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Old 09-21-2013   #39
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

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The Texans always seem to be up against the cap. I dont know if this is due to Bob/ Olson/Rick/Gary's philosophy or they just aren't very good at cap management.

I've got a feeling they will try to keep the core together for 1 more yr.
I attribute it to Head Coach Think vs GM Think. A Head Coach stays focused on the season at hand, a GM plans for the next 4 years. After the disastrous 2010 season and when Kubiak's hot seat was laced with red hot coals he mortgaged the future. Unfortunately they're now in salary cap hell from which they cannot escape without some kind of house cleaning. IMHO this is the Texans last year of the proverbial "The Window is Closing". One reason is because of the limited decisions that can made because of poor salary cap management. The others are Indy and Ten have been getting better each year. It also appears that JAX will get the #1 Franchise QB in next year's draft.
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Old 09-21-2013   #40
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Default Re: Texans draft 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texian View Post
I think it is a little more complicated than this.
I never even implied the state of the cap overall was not a consideration.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texian View Post
Nailed it! One thing you can count on is Rick Smith the day before the draft lecturing the masses on how important it is to take the BPA. Then he proceeds to the draft room and first thing Texans do is reach for a positions of needs. They talk the talk but they certainly don't walk the walk.
Or they didn't reach at all and the draftniks were just wrong aka Duane Brown. JJ Watt and Cushing certainly were not reaches and neither was KJ. Even bust Okoye wasn't a reach - the draftniks had him rated that high. Mario wasn't even a reach and arguably QB and RB were higher needs. Seems like you are example shy on your position.
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