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Old 08-19-2013   #1
Blake
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Default Another "Luck"y season ahead?

http://nfl.si.com/2013/08/19/reggie-...2_a6&eref=sihp

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Reggie Wayne makes what could be the catch of the year … in the preseason
Are we in for another season of forunate breaks and lucky plays from the Colts in 2013?
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Old 08-19-2013   #2
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

There was also at least one interception dropped by the Giants. From what I saw of that game.
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Old 08-19-2013   #3
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by paycheck71 View Post
There was also at least one interception dropped by the Giants. From what I saw of that game.
There were 2 that they missed.

But that corner endzone strike to Hilton was a thing of beauty.
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Old 08-19-2013   #4
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

Well, Luck passed for 4300 yards. So is that lucky or is he good? Because if you pass for 4000 yards, you're a notch above the other QBs, according to some around here. And if you have a upper echelon QB, the results of the season doesn't revolve quite as much around luck.
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Old 08-19-2013   #5
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

Luck is a good QB, hell, I'd love to have him on the Texans. But that doesn't make the Colts a playoff team just 'cause they have a good QB. The Colts will not make a run for the division this year, they'll be battling the Titans for 2nd place and a wild card spot.
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Old 08-19-2013   #6
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Well, Luck passed for 4300 yards. So is that lucky or is he good? Because if you pass for 4000 yards, you're a notch above the other QBs, according to some around here. And if you have a upper echelon QB, the results of the season doesn't revolve quite as much around luck.
He's certainly good, but he was also lucky last season, and the Colts overachieved as a team. Read somewhere that Luck had more dropped interceptions than any other QB. Also, according to Football Outsiders metrics they were probably closer to an 6-10 team in quality of play than to 11-5. Some people like FO, some people don't, so take that FWIW.

From FO 2013 Almanac:

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Of course, storybook seasons are not always what they seem on the surface. On a play-by-play basis, the Colts weren’t even close to postseason quality. Over the course of the season, they were outscored by 30 points and had a turnover margin of minus-12. Even in the midst of #chuckstrong, they somehow allowed Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets to reach the end zone five times in a 35-9 loss. (We repeat: Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets.) Another key part of the Colts’ suc- cessful season was their relatively soft schedule, the easiest in the league with an average opponent DVOA of -7.4%. No team has the luxury of picking and choosing its own schedule, but in retrospect their storybook season was clearly built on narrow wins over teams well out of playoff contention. The Colts posted a negative single-game DVOA in eight of their final 13 games, including a -48.5% DVOA in an overtime win over the Tennessee Titans. Based on the Colts’ DVOA both overall and in specific situations, our estimated wins metric projected the Colts to win just 6.2 games; that’s the largest gap between wins and estimated wins in the history of DVOA (Table 1). Despite their 11-5 record and playoff appearance, the Colts were still a work in progress and needed to address certain key positions in the offseason to be considered playoff contenders in 2013.
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Old 08-19-2013   #7
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

You make your own luck. Will be an interested observer.
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Old 08-19-2013   #8
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Well, Luck passed for 4300 yards. So is that lucky or is he good? Because if you pass for 4000 yards, you're a notch above the other QBs, according to some around here. And if you have a upper echelon QB, the results of the season doesn't revolve quite as much around luck.
Lets see him do it again. That will tell us a lot.

More QBs did not throw for 4000 yards in 2012, than did.


But Luck looked good the other night. The kid really hasn't impressed me much since his senior year at Stanford... but he looked good.
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Old 08-19-2013   #9
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by paycheck71 View Post
Also, according to Football Outsiders metrics they were probably closer to an 6-10 team in quality of play than to 11-5. Some people like FO, some people don't, so take that FWIW.
What did they have as the Texans record (via metrics)? I've always been of the Bill Parcells "You are what your record says you are" school.
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Old 08-19-2013   #10
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
What did they have as the Texans record (via metrics)? I've always been of the Bill Parcells "You are what your record says you are" school.
That's an excellent question. I believe the "expected wins" # for Houston was 8.3 based on their stats. Follow the link below, and the second table has the "expected wins" stat for all the teams for 2012 as well as an explanations of what that stat means. You can pick another year if you want.

LINK
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Old 08-20-2013   #11
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
The kid really hasn't impressed me much since his senior year at Stanford... but he looked good.
So the 4300+ yards did not impress you? It's good to see you joining the sane side of the discussion.
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Old 08-20-2013   #12
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
So the 4300+ yards did not impress you? It's good to see you joining the sane side of the discussion.
C'mon, 4000 yds is not the definition of elite but it is also nothing to sneeze at. Plus barring injury in this case it would be 4 years in a row with one leading the league in passing. It isn't the be all end all discussion is over but it is valid to factor into the discussion.
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Old 08-20-2013   #13
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

Its like in baseball. When a team wins a high percentage of 1 run games in a season. Its not normal. Eventually things tend to even themselves out.

I really didnt mean to make it sound like Luck and the Colts have no skills, simply that they seemed to come out on top a high percentage of the time in a tight matchup.
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Old 08-20-2013   #14
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

Colts will be "lucky" to get to 8-8. They really did not do much to improve in the offseason.
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Old 08-20-2013   #15
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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You make your own luck. Will be an interested observer.
Oh, you mean like the Colts did when they tanked the season for their "Luck"?
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Old 08-20-2013   #16
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
So the 4300+ yards did not impress you? It's good to see you joining the sane side of the discussion.

If Jake Locker were to have thrown the ball another 313 times at 6.9 yards an attempt, he would have thrown for 4,335.7 yards. Jake Locker finished with a 74.0 QBR, Luck finished with a 76.5..... they're practically the same guy.

Most QBs playing as poorly as Luck would not get the opprotunity to throw for 4300+ yards.

So in Lucks case, no 4300+ yards is not impressive.

4008 yards, with a 90.7 QBR, 64% completion percentage, & 7.4 ypc is much more impressive.

Imagine if Matt threw the ball another 83 times at 7.4 ypc, He'd have finished with 4,622 yards.

I would also bet the odds are that Matt will throw for about 4000 yards next season. I have no idea what a healthy Luck will do.
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Old 08-20-2013   #17
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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Originally Posted by Blake View Post
http://nfl.si.com/2013/08/19/reggie-...2_a6&eref=sihp



Are we in for another season of forunate breaks and lucky plays from the Colts in 2013?
I don't think so. I expect them to be a much improved team this year.
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Old 08-20-2013   #18
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Default Re: Another "Luck"y season ahead?

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I don't think so. I expect them to be a much improved team this year.
we all know u got a hard on for luck anyways.
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