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Old 05-07-2013   #1
LikeMike
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Default Statistical Analysis of the TexansTalk Draft Grades

Hey guys,

after the dust settled I figures IŽd take another look at our draft grades from the polls we did at draft night. I did some minor culculations to see, how this board rated our draft.

So here are our draft grades:

Round 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins: 1.26 (A+)

Round 2 FS DJ Swearinger: 1.44 (A)

Round 3 OT Brennan Williams: 1.82 (B+)

Round 3 OLB Sam Montgomery: 2.02 (B)

Round 4 OLB Trevardo Williams: 1.63 (A-)

Round 6 OT David Quessenberry: 1.13 (A+)

Round 6 WR Alan Bonner: 4.23 (D)

Round 6 NT Chris Jones: 2.16 (B)

Round 6 TE Ryan Griffin: 2.59 (B-)


Overall non weighted: 2.03 (B)

Overall weighted: 1.81 (A-B)

For the weighted score I just used a simple formular: A Round 1 pick is worth twice of what a Round 2 pick is worth, three times a Round 3 pick and so on. There are probably more elegant ways, but I tried to keep it simple.

Summary: This board basically loves our first 6 picks (a little unsure about Montgomery which is probably due to his reported "character flaws"), hates our second 6 Rounder, WR Alan Bonner (probably because no one knew him... he might surprise some people though) and are a little meh on the last two picks. The best received pick of this draft is OT David Quessenberry, probably because he was rated much higher than the 6th Round by most.
Overall this draft earns a pretty solid B if you don`t weigh the draft picks, or an A- to B+ if you do weigh it.
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Old 05-20-2013   #2
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Default Re: Statistical Analysis of the TexansTalk Draft Grades

I think it`s pretty interesting, that our lowest rated pickup seems to create a lot of buzz at minicamps... Bonner might actually contribute some this year. I believe if we would revote every draft grade today, we would easily improve our grade to a solid A overall. Seems like the more we find out about our guys, the more we like them.

Now if only that A-grade could stand the test of time...
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Old 05-20-2013   #3
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Default Re: Statistical Analysis of the TexansTalk Draft Grades

As with any draft assessment, it'll be really interesting to see how the grades change as the season unfolds.
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Old 05-21-2013   #4
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Default Re: Statistical Analysis of the TexansTalk Draft Grades

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Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
As with any draft assessment, it'll be really interesting to see how the grades change as the season unfolds.
Exactly. This season and the next two as well. That said, I don't have any doubt that this man is a baller and will only improve over time. To me he's just a natural high point hands catcher. DeAndre will be an asset for years to come. A great addition to the team.
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Old 05-22-2013   #5
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Default Re: Statistical Analysis of the TexansTalk Draft Grades

Quote:
Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
I think it`s pretty interesting, that our lowest rated pickup seems to create a lot of buzz at minicamps... Bonner might actually contribute some this year. I believe if we would revote every draft grade today, we would easily improve our grade to a solid A overall. Seems like the more we find out about our guys, the more we like them.

Now if only that A-grade could stand the test of time...
The vote for Bonner wasn't necessarily a knock on him .... as no one had ever heard of the guy.

That vote was based more upon the talent we thought they left on the board .... and at positions we thought were more important at the time.... ILB anyone ?! , another DB?! or even a RB tho they brought three guy's many of us targeted in the 6th & 7th rounds in as UDFA's.

With the benefit of hindsight if I were to grade that choice again now it would definitely be a better grade than my initial reaction.
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Old 05-22-2013   #6
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Default Re: Statistical Analysis of the TexansTalk Draft Grades

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Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
As with any draft assessment, it'll be really interesting to see how the grades change as the season unfolds.
I'm glad LikeMike did this. It may not mean anything to some people, but it gives us a baseline at least on this boards perception of the work RickSmith & Co. are doing.

Of course, RickSmith doesn't get any credit, but that's a different story
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