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Old 06-17-2008   #1
Wolf
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Default Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

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Houston Texans (6-10)

Houston is the Tampa Bay Rays of the NFL. No matter how much better or more promising they get, they always have to contend with a couple of great teams at the top of the division. It does not appear to be 2008, but the Texans could be nearing a 2008 Rays-like breakthrough. The Texans average 21.3 points per game (#23) and allow 24.6 points (#20) against a schedule featuring eight games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 6-10

Most Significant Newcomer: Antwaun Molden, CB - This is a very tough debate. The answer should come from the group of Molden, RB Chris Brown, RB Steve Slaton, CB Jacque Reeves and OL Duane Brown. Reeves and Chris Brown have experience starting recently, but Chris Brown is too injury-prone and Reeves will not help the team create turnovers. Molden seems like the best bet. He will not likely start, but he fits a need and be able to make some plays in the defensive backfield. Expect around 25 tackles and two interceptions.

Biggest Strength: Young Cornerstones of the Defense - Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye and DeMeco Ryans may be a better way to phrase that.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Pass Defense - When Williams is not standing above the quarterback after one of 16 sacks, that quarterback may be picking a part a secondary that gives up too many big plays and lacks the ability to force interceptions.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Steve Slaton, RB - Ahman Green, Chris Brown and even Slaton will likely be hurt at some point this season. As the ultra-productive college product who has not yet played in the NFL, Steve Slaton is the most intriguing of the group. The sim has all three backs in the same vicinity with Slaton gaining 632 total yards and scoring five touchdowns. 626 of those yards are on the ground. Don't expect many catches in his career.

Closest Game: Tennessee (Week 15) - With the AFC Wild Card picture wide open, this looks like a game that could keep the winner's playoff hopes alive.

Fantasy Notables: Matt Schaub (21) 2,623 yards, 18 TDs, 10 INTs; Chris Brown (43) 735 total yards, 5 TDs; Ahman Green (47) 751 total yards, 5 TDs; Andre Johnson (7) 81 receptions, 1,192 yards, 8 TDs; Owen Daniels (11) 50 receptions, 548 yards, 4 TDs; Kris Brown (25) 36/36 XPs, 24/30 FGs
http://ten.scout.com/a.z?s=120&p=2&c=762012#texans
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Old 06-17-2008   #2
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

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Originally Posted by Wolf View Post
You know.... its hard to argue. I mean you can argue with your heart but.... honestly the DBs might be a real liability. I think 8-8 is more realistic, but to disagree with the record I'd have to see the game by game breakdown. I think its hard to see us going 6-10... but I'd say its more likely that we win less than 8 games than it is that we win more than 10.

Mike
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Old 06-17-2008   #3
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

Oh well.

Lets be realistic, until we start winning and stop being the Arizona Cardinals of the AFC we will continue to get predictions like this.

If I remember correctly, scout.com gave the Texan draft an F and gave the Titan draft a B- so you have to take there analysis with a grain of salt.
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Old 06-17-2008   #4
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

The one exception that I take about his assessment is the overall record. I think the Texans did very well to get to 8-8 with all of the injuries suffered last season which included 9 games missed by AJ. I think this team will have more talent and DEPTH than we've ever had. With that said, I'd don't see this team regressing to 6-10 - so I agree with Mike here. 8-8 again is probably the worst case scenario.
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Old 06-17-2008   #5
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

30% 8 wins
40% 9 wins
30% 10 wins

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Old 06-17-2008   #6
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

The only way we go 6-10 is to have even more injuries to starters than we did last year.

I still think another 8-8 or 9-7 season is a safe bet for the Texans. But you just never know. We very well could be 6-10 or 10-6 depending on about a billion things.
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Old 06-17-2008   #7
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texanmike View Post
You know.... its hard to argue. I mean you can argue with your heart but.... honestly the DBs might be a real liability. I think 8-8 is more realistic, but to disagree with the record I'd have to see the game by game breakdown. I think its hard to see us going 6-10... but I'd say its more likely that we win less than 8 games than it is that we win more than 10.

Mike
This is based on game simulation software.

It doesn't take into account a lot of things, such as Alex Gibbs and whatnot.

There's been also statistical stuff that shows that past doesn't do a good job in predicting future records--it's over at the Pro-Football-Reference blog somewhere.
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Old 06-17-2008   #8
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

It says we go 3-13 and win the last 3 games to achieve a 6 win season.
That ain't happening!
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Old 06-17-2008   #9
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

It doesnt seem logical to think the Texans regressed this offseason. The addition of Gibbs, plus a nice draft and some decent free agent pick ups should count as improvements. The Texans didnt lose any good players, and most importantly, we dont have 17 players on IR.

Id definitely be willing to bet over if the line is 6 wins for the Texans
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Old 06-17-2008   #10
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

At first glance, this seems a little harsh, but we still have enough unknowns to go 6-10...while being extremely competitive on all of our games and losing some close ones. That being said, I think we are just as likely to go 10-6 as 6-10 and most likely to end up with an 8-8 average like last year.

So much really depends on how we handle our division. I don't think we can do what we did last year in the division and end over .500.
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Old 06-17-2008   #11
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

I quit predicting how the NFL season will play out a while ago. I learned my lesson the hard way I guess. It's a fun thing to do and I guess with predictions like this you gain attention. Anyway, anything could happen in this season. I can see us making the playoffs with some luck or we could be picking in the top 10 in the draft next year. But I think given the offseason we had and the progress the team made last year I think it's logical at least to think that we can win 8 to 9 games this year.
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Old 06-17-2008   #12
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

We went 8-8 last year with a fairly abysmal running game, having to pass a lot and the defenses knowing we had to pass, but we still ended up with a top ten passing offense. Our running game should improve this year. Last year our collective safeties and corner backs were not that great, but should improve (as a group) slightly this year. Our D line and LBs should be better.

The catch is, we have a tougher schedule this year than last, so if the players get injured like last year, itís gonna be tough. I still say we could be a much improved team and still go 8-8.

However, if some of these "good" teams on our schedule have a off year, we could move up. Hopefully none of the "bad" teams on our schedule have a year of remarkable improvement.
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Old 06-17-2008   #13
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

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Originally Posted by Texan_Bill View Post
The one exception that I take about his assessment is the overall record. I think the Texans did very well to get to 8-8 with all of the injuries suffered last season which included 9 games missed by AJ. I think this team will have more talent and DEPTH than we've ever had. With that said, I'd don't see this team regressing to 6-10 - so I agree with Mike here. 8-8 again is probably the worst case scenario.
Yep, the analysis itself seems fairly sound, I just think the record can be higher, even given the same criteria.
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Old 06-17-2008   #14
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

I don't know what our record will be- how could I? Injuries, confidence, intangibles, etc... all play such a large role in how a season progresses.

What I do know is that we have a pretty good team and have a chance to have an excellent season. I couldn't cherry pick more than a handful of rosters that I'd prefer to the one we've assembled.
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Old 06-17-2008   #15
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

I'm saying 9-7 until I see us play Ten and Jax on the road.
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Old 06-17-2008   #16
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

scout.com sucks
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Old 06-17-2008   #17
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

Lets be honest here, last years record was really more like 7-9 than 8-8
if the Jags come into Reliant full-bore with their starters in the season finale.
OK splilt the difference and we're 7.5-8.5. The point is a 6 win season is not really much different than last year. Are we better than last year ? Maybe but
we've probably also got a tougher schedule. 6 wins vs. 8 or 9 wins is basically about the injury situation (yours and your oppenents), and a couple
key calls by the zebs.
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Old 06-17-2008   #18
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

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Originally Posted by TEXANRED View Post
Oh well.

Lets be realistic, until we start winning and stop being the Arizona Cardinals of the AFC we will continue to get predictions like this.

If I remember correctly, scout.com gave the Texan draft an F and gave the Titan draft a B- so you have to take there analysis with a grain of salt.
In reality, if we were the Arizona Cardinals of the AFC, everybody would be picking us to go 10-6 (and we actually would go 6-10).

6 1/2 months from now if we're 10-6, nobody's going to even remember this prediction. To be completely honest, if we're 6-10, nobody's going to remember this prediction then either.
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Old 06-17-2008   #19
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

Quote:
Originally Posted by nunusguy View Post
Lets be honest here, last years record was really more like 7-9 than 8-8
if the Jags come into Reliant full-bore with their starters in the season finale.
OK splilt the difference and we're 7.5-8.5. The point is a 6 win season is not really much different than last year. Are we better than last year ? Maybe but
we've probably also got a tougher schedule. 6 wins vs. 8 or 9 wins is basically about the injury situation (yours and your oppenents), and a couple
key calls by the zebs.
Were we not playing backups? Why, I think we were.
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Old 06-17-2008   #20
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Default Re: Scout.com prediction Texans 6-10

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texanmike View Post
You know.... its hard to argue. I mean you can argue with your heart but.... honestly the DBs might be a real liability. I think 8-8 is more realistic, but to disagree with the record I'd have to see the game by game breakdown. I think its hard to see us going 6-10... but I'd say its more likely that we win less than 8 games than it is that we win more than 10.

Mike
Very good objective opinion Texanmike. I agree with you. Health will be a BIG issue as it is with any team, but the Texans don't have depth really at an position but QB, if the starters go down and you know that some will go down. If Bennett goes down, then the Texans are really going to be in a bad position.

I think the Texans will go 6-10 at the worst and 9-7 at best.

With that being said, the Texans have better players and all but it is still hard to say that they are a team on the rise for BIG things. Until we have a QB, where I can say WOW, he is THE GUY then I dunno. I am really mad about that extension Rick Smith got. He has made some good picks and a few that I don't agree with either. I think that Mcnair should have waited AT LEAST one more year to see what the Texans do this year to have a more accurate idea of where this team is going.

The position I feel the best about on the Texans right now is the WR position and they only have one STUD. Andre Davis played pretty well last year, and I really think if him and Johnson both are healthy this year he can be a guy that could put up 700-900 yards. On the other hand he could end up being a pretender. I think he'll do pretty well. Plus, we still have no idea how Jacoby Jones will play. He looked great in pre season, and then looked like a typical non special rookie before and after his early injury. Maybe Jones will become a great player, but right now he hasn't shown anything to storngly speculate that other than that pre season performance but I have been watching football for to long to put any relevance on pre season.
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