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Old 02-28-2008   #1
Texanmike02
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Default Things to remember this offseason

Hey all. I'm finally settled in Shreveport. Been too long so lets talk some football.

Guess what folks. We're coming off of our first season as "not losers". We didn't lose more games than we won. We didn't win more than we lost either but its a step in the right direction.

After signing Davis we have around 21 million left in cap space and a few needs yet to fill. So here's what I'd like to see happen.

1. Kill the dead weight- even with last years trimming, there is a lot of fat to be trimmed from the roster in my opinion. It starts with Green. I didn't like the signing when we made it and I HATE it now. I would like to cut Weaver, not because I think he's a terrible player but at 6.2mil he's the highest cap number we have BUT his bonus is 2.7million over the next 3 years meaning it will be 6 million against the cap NEXT year in dead money if we cut him.

Cut Green (saves approx 2 million vs cap)
Cut Flanagan (Saves approx 2.5 million vs cap)
Cut Jordan black (1.3 million)


I'd like to make other cuts, believe me I would. But I think all of these make sense from a football stance as well as cap stance. The Green cut for example, leaves us with 3 million in dead money next year but it clears up more than that just in base salary (4.2 if I remember correctly).

2. Realize our weaknesses. Just about everyone likes their boys. Who on the Texans isn't almost universally likes among fans? Faggins? Schaub? I think that about sums it up. We do however have weaknesses. Man do we ever. OL comes to mind. So does CB and OLB. Oh yeah, RB does too. We don't really need a "SPLASH". I mean sure it would be fun to log on and find out that we got a top notch FA. People underestimate the lines for the most part. Especially the OL. I know we don't, but year after year we buy into the idea that our "diamond in the rough LT prospect" will work out. With the exception of Spencer, everyone has failed miserably.

3. Don't overvalue our players. I saw a thread about Sage for a 3rd round pick. IN A HEARTBEAT. Yeah we need a backup QB. I realize that. I also think that a 3rd round pick in a draft as deep as this one with OL and RB could be HUGE. I'd have done it in a heartbeat. Spencer was promising and Winston has been better than advertised IMNSHO. The 3rd round, again, will have alot of players there who can walk in and start. Are you taking a chance? Yep. Then again I don't think we're going to the playoffs with Sage. With some shrewd moves this team has a chance to win 9 games. NINE!! not 12. Playing Indy and JAX twice a year though, you might be able to plug a need on the line or at the RB spot and steal a game because you hold the ball a little longer. Sage will be gone next year most likely anyways. The same holds true for other players on this team. OLB CB FS can all be upgraded easliy.

This team is no doubt on the rise. Another shrewd draft or two and the right moves in FA and we can definately challange for a playoff spot.

Mike
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Old 02-28-2008   #2
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Default Re: Things to remember this offseason

You know Flanagan has already been cut. As for Black, I haven't heard anything yet, but don't bet on Green going anywhere just yet.
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Old 02-28-2008   #3
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Default Re: Things to remember this offseason

Sage for a third. Yeah, I would probably make that trade, BUT, what are you gonna do if Matt goes down, which there is a very good chance that will happen. If they trade sage away then they gotta sign someone decent which there isn't. or use a fifth rounder on a rookie.
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Old 02-28-2008   #4
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Cool Re: Things to remember this offseason

Quote:
Originally Posted by Insideop View Post
You know Flanagan has already been cut. As for Black, I haven't heard anything yet, but don't bet on Green going anywhere just yet.
I actually did know that. Was looking at HPF's salary page. See they are on the right track already.

Mike
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Old 02-29-2008   #5
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Default Re: Things to remember this offseason

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Originally Posted by raytex View Post
Sage for a third. Yeah, I would probably make that trade, BUT, what are you gonna do if Matt goes down, which there is a very good chance that will happen. If they trade sage away then they gotta sign someone decent which there isn't. or use a fifth rounder on a rookie.
Well my point is this. I'm not as high as everyone else on Sage. I think he's a good backup, but on this team I don't think a good backup is good enough to make the playoffs. I was a bit dissapointed in Schaub last year but if we get the same production as we got last year we're not headed to the playoffs. I think we've seen Sage for what he is and that is NOT a playoff caliber QB. Not in the AFC at least. Use a low pick on a rookie. Sign a guy. I don't care. Its a gamble because everyone is right... we're not going to have a very good backup if Sage leaves. Still that said, I'd rather have another starter improved than keep what we have.

Just for reference:
98.9% Chargers
98.7% Patriots
93.9% Steelers
93.4% Colts
82.3% Jaguars
69.5% Titans

These are the % of snaps taken by their Starting QB. The Titans are really an exception because they don't rely on their QB to win games. VY is IMHO almost a hinderance because of his style of play. In this league (and yes I will be doing more analysis of this) if you have you don't have consistency at the QB position you're not going to win many games.

60 different QB's started a game last year.

In fact here are the QB's to start every game for their team last season:

Hasslebeck 10
P Manning 13
E Manning 10
Farve 13
Kitna 7
Cutler 7
Romo 13
Palmer 7
Brady 16
Rivers 11
Brees 7

If you're counting, that's an average of 10.4 wins.

If you didn't have your QB start every game.... you won an average of 6.1 games. That's why I'm not so worried about a backup QB. Rather than worrying about who the backup is we need to worry about getting a quality guy and standing him upright and keeping him in there for the Majority of the year.

Mike
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Old 02-29-2008   #6
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Default Re: Things to remember this offseason

Some points: There was approximately $35million in cap prior to signing AD and we do not know yet how his deal is structured or how much the guarantee is. I would ignored his cap hit as we have approximately $4m above the $35m in players we cut such as Flannagan, so AD's contract is a wash to me.

Next, you can get $3.8 million cap space by making Green a June 1st cut rather than sooner.

I'm ok with trading Sage but not for a third. Who do you replace him with? After last year, we will need a back up occasionally based on Schaub and other QB replacements. I am not sure I want to have Schaub and a draft pick for this season.

We may not go to playoffs, but can you imagine fan opinion if team goes less than 7-9? Do not think McNair would be too happy.
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