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Old 01-17-2008   #1
hookinreds
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Default Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

I was curious about the Bronco’s record versus the AFC South since Shanahan took over in 1995, to get some idea of how his scheme (the one we believe we are trying to imulate) matched up, so I pulled some numbers. I’ll let yall tear it to pieces with the analytical part. I don’t like posting stats as the end all be all. This is just food for thought, and curious as to the opinions of others on how we could change the pattern that Denver has had against our Conference. Obviously lots of things can be taken in to consideration here, known and unknown, like Denver’s Defense (rankings below), key injuries during those particular games,…etc. Just food for thought that’s all, and open for discussion. As for my opinion, I’m eager to see what Gibbs can do for us, and think it’s a positive move.

Colts: 2-6
Titans: 2-1
Jags: 4-4
Texans: 1-1
9-12 versus the AFC South ’95-Present

Colts: 2-6
Titans: 2-1
Jags: 1-3
Texans: 1-1
6-11 versus the AFC South after Elway ’99-Present

Defense Ranking by Yards:
1995 – 15th TTYds, 9th Passing, 23rd Rushing
1996 – 4th TTYds, 10th Passing, 1st Rushing
1997 – 5th TTYds, 5th Passing, 16th Rushing
1998 – 11th TTYds, 26th Passing, 3rd Rushing
1999 – 7th TTYds, 8th Passing, 19th Rushing
2000 – 24th TTYds, 31st Passing, 7th Rushing
2001 – 8th TTYds, 16th Passing, 6th Rushing
2002 – 6th TTyds, 16th Passing, 4th Rushing
2003 – 4th TTYds, 6th Passing, 7th Rushing
2004 – 4th TTYds, 6th Passing, 4th Rushing
2005 – 15th TTYds, 29th Passing, 2nd Rushing
2006 – 14th TTYds, 21st Passing, 12th Rushing
2007 – 19th TTYds, 7th Passing, 30th Rushing

Last edited by hookinreds; 01-17-2008 at 12:54 PM.
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Old 01-17-2008   #2
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

Not sure why this got moved to the NFL group. The purpose was to show how the team that we believe we are trying to imulate did against our confrence.
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Old 01-17-2008   #3
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

I don't see how these numbers have much relevance. The Colts have gone through a couple of different organizations since 1995. So have the Jags. Fisher has been the head coach for Bud's team the entire time. But, I'm not sure what you can determine from 3 games over a 13 year span. Plus, the Texans aren't running the same defense the Broncos have been. The Broncos haven't even run the same defense over that time period.

What Denver has done against AFC South opponents (BTW, the AFC South has only existed since 2002), is less relevant than what the Texans have done under Kubiak over the past 2 seasons. Their record vs. the division under Kubiak is 4-8. That won't cut it. The answer is more about what the Texans can do to improve in the future, rather than what Denver and Papa Shanahan have done in the past.
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Old 01-17-2008   #4
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

I dunno lucky. I think he has the right idea just the wrong formula. Looking at what denver has done against the current systems in place might give us a barometer offensively. I think that our defenses are built a little different. Maybe not look so much at records but QB effiency or points? I dunno I'm just a numbers geek.

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Old 01-17-2008   #5
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texanmike View Post
I dunno lucky. I think he has the right idea just the wrong formula. Looking at what denver has done against the current systems in place might give us a barometer offensively. I think that our defenses are built a little different. Maybe not look so much at records but QB effiency or points? I dunno I'm just a numbers geek.

Mike
I think there are too many confounding variables to really look at it this way. You've got head coaches, offensive and defensive coordinator changes on both teams, personnel changes, etc., etc. There just aren't enough data points and too many factors changing over time.
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Old 01-17-2008   #6
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
I think there are too many confounding variables to really look at it this way. You've got head coaches, offensive and defensive coordinator changes on both teams, personnel changes, etc., etc. There just aren't enough data points and too many factors changing over time.
Your absolutely right...there are a ton of variables, but has his overall scheme really changed that much? Jacksonville has had some changes, but Fisher and Dungy have been there a while.

Maybe the whole idea is hog wash, maybe theres a couple teeth in there somewhere, I dunno.

Heres a little more of a break down for Texanmike...but of course I can't get the format right. Oh well.

Off Def
Yr Opp Pass Rush TO Pass Rush TO
95 Titans 332 140 2 280 168 2
Jaguars 286 111 3 191 69 2

98 Jaguars 295 170 0 282 66 1

99 Jaguars 268 90 2 104 161 0

00 No Games

01 Colts 104 115 4 184 151 1

02 Colts 172 113 2 216 128 3

03 Colts 238 227 1 136 47 0

04 Jaguars 250 106 1 109 67 0
Texans 225 139 0 228 103 0
Titans 303 193 2 94 59 2
Colts 239 214 0 166 34 1

05 Jaguars 118 188 0 229 12 4

06 No games


Score
Yr Tm Opp Opp
95 33 42 Titans
31 23 Jaguars
96 PO 27 30 Jaguars

97 PO 42 17 Jaguars

98 37 24 Jaguars

99 24 27 Jaguars

00 No Games

01 10 29 Colts

02 20 23 Colts

03 31 17 Colts
PO 10 41 Colts

04 6 7 Jaguars
31 13 Texans
37 16 Titans
33 14 Colts
PO 24 49 Colts

05 20 7 Jaguars

06 No games
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Old 01-17-2008   #7
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

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Originally Posted by hookinreds View Post
Your absolutely right...there are a ton of variables, but has his overall scheme really changed that much? Jacksonville has had some changes, but Fisher and Dungy have been there a while.
Well, let's just talk about Fisher vs. Shanahan.

When they played in 1995, it was the Oilers versus the Broncos.

Chris Chandler was the QB for the Oilers, Randy Thomas was the leading rusher, and Chris Sanders was the leading receiver. We finished 7-9. The Broncos had Elway and TD but they were 8-8 that year; TD was the rookie surprise.

You're trying to tell me that because of the HC being the same and the "scheme" being the same that the statistics of those games have some similarity to the Titans with McNair and Eddie George or VY and Lendale White or the Broncos with Portis or Olandis Gary or whoever.

Nah.

What the coaches are trying to do changes over time both because of what they want to do but also because of what they're forced to do because of personnel issues. Fisher is going to try to run and try to have a great defense. But the particulars of how he does that is going to depend on what he's got available. Dungy likes a bend but don't break defense and doesn't really touch the offense much. Shanahan's offense has changed a lot just by losing Kubiak let alone how it changed after Elway & TD left.
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Old 01-17-2008   #8
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

With, turnover, salary caps, parity and free agency - looking beyond more than two seasons (in either direction) seems futile..
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Old 01-17-2008   #9
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

interesting stuff....

BUT... did they EVER have a D like we are building.... i dont think so
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Old 01-17-2008   #10
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

The same hold true for the futher, none of the teams will remain the same over time, or even from year to year. Guess it was just a cheesy attempt to drive a conversation about comparing the Bronco's with what we might expect. I guess, maybe it should have been more in line with how did the ZBS do against different types of defenses, but still to much change. Guess I'll drop the idea.
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Old 01-17-2008   #11
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

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I guess, maybe it should have been more in line with how did the ZBS do against different types of defenses, but still to much change...
Actually, that makes sense. Tracking the Broncos rush attack (post Terrell Davis) and see if they fare better or worse against certain types of defenses. You could probably add the Falcons running game when Gibbs was there (2004-2006). But, I would subtract Vick's numbers from those totals as they aren't germane to any ZBS analysis.
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Old 01-17-2008   #12
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

I think your idea is good, and thought provoking. However I think your time span is too long.

1. You used data from 1995, but the Jags and Texans did not exist in 1995. Also, the Colts were a compleltey different team in 1995 and not at all what they are today.

2. You used data from 1999, but remember that Peyton did not become Peyton until 2000 and really became the man we all feared until around 2001.

3. The Jags of 98 were an anomoly for the franchise(since 1994) and only around 2001 or 2002 did they establish themselves as the second best team in the division.

Thus I would look at data that started around 2001. This was when the schemes for the teams really looked the way they actually do today. Peyton was Peyton, the Jags looked like the Jags, and Fisher's Titans were playing very tough with McNair and George hitting their strides.
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Old 01-18-2008   #13
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

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Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
I don't see how these numbers have much relevance. The Colts have gone through a couple of different organizations since 1995. So have the Jags. Fisher has been the head coach for Bud's team the entire time. But, I'm not sure what you can determine from 3 games over a 13 year span. Plus, the Texans aren't running the same defense the Broncos have been. The Broncos haven't even run the same defense over that time period.

What Denver has done against AFC South opponents (BTW, the AFC South has only existed since 2002), is less relevant than what the Texans have done under Kubiak over the past 2 seasons. Their record vs. the division under Kubiak is 4-8. That won't cut it. The answer is more about what the Texans can do to improve in the future, rather than what Denver and Papa Shanahan have done in the past.

Oh I see it....Shanahan sucks vs the AFC South, therefor his protege is going to suck vs the AFC South....no matter what he does. It is inevitble. Cowpolkes fan bored and looking to stir things up.

Prety timely too considering the record this year.

What isn't timly is taking into conideration what was on the shelf when Kubiak got here. Only fool would offer conjecture based on rudimentry stats. Such a sophmoric proposal with out considering the tallent level here two short years ago, nor that gathered by Kubiak & Smith in last two seasons is falacious on its face.

The level of play he has gotten out of second teired tallent at several key postions is prety amazing. Further, any coach who can bring a team to an even five hundered record with seventeen guys on the shelf including most of your gaurd depth, starting RB , the first down rain maker all pro WR, and the young MLB with a bad wheel down the strech, is a coach who the players believe in. There is no other explantion for it. They could of went into the tank the moment that Ahmen and A.J. went down and they didn't. The team fought for the guy all season long. Get use to it. He's not going anywhere.
I reject the guys inference out of hand.
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Old 01-18-2008   #14
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Default Re: Papa Shanahan vs AFC South

Good start, and some good points made. That was the purpose of the post.

I started with the recored when Shanahan took over. I split it up to show total recored and record after Elway left. For the record, I like Shanahan, and I like Kubiak, Kubiak has done a good job with the talent he has had thus far.

That being said, when did Shanahan really solidify the ZBS? I dunno for certian is why I ask. I've followed the Broncos becuase a buddy of mine is a big fan, but I can't pinpoint the seaons that it was in full effect. I guess then I could look at how it's played out against the AFC South (understood it came into effect in 2002) I was just grouping teams that are now in the AFC South instead of all AFC teams to see how it's faired over the years. Ok, so there have been a number of changes on teams, but have those changes been effective against it, or were they effective before the changes and what type of changes were they, are we incorporating those changes, do teams now incorporate a plan that might be more effective against us than others? Just looking at who or what type of D will be most effective against us, especially those in our confrence.
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