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Old 01-04-2008   #21
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Also, the TOs put the D in precarious positions in several games, including the Titans game at home, and the two games in CLV & ATL.

The D made their share of mistakes, but they also pulled a few stops. The Offense, on the other hand, made more mistakes for the team to recover from.

Only with a better defensive backfield that can apply a little more pressure from either the safety of LB position.
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Old 01-04-2008   #22
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Rex Ryan would be a good fit if he does not end up the HC at Baltimore. We will have to address the secondary this offseason. I'm not expecting Dunta to be his former-self until 09, so we are going to have to get a steal in the draft of pay some good money in free agency.
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Old 01-04-2008   #23
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

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Without considering where the opponent's drive started?

The Texans offense's glut of turnovers put the defense in bad field position on a regular basis - especially during that bad mid-season stretch.

I take stats like this with a grain. You certainly can't take stats like this and determine if good or bad is the result of coaching or talent - or what combination of the two is the most accurate.

Exactly, I acknowledged the field position problemas in my initial post and how that may effect stats. Even so, Smith tenure with the Texans has been a little scary.

Starting with the first three games of last season which were beyond scary.

Or even this last game against the Jags backups. The Texans were ahead. They turned the ball over once. And the defense had few answers.

My concerns are not just statistical though they confirm my feelings about stuff. It just is so grim to be yelling your head off for third and longs and then having the other team convert it for the first down. Repeatedly.

I just wish I had the same sort of feeling I get watching the offense--that with a little more time, it will be something.

There shouldn't be a reason that going into year 3 of Smith being DC that I still haven't seen what a Smith defense is supposed to look like, other than praying that the other team shoots itself in the foot. And at the end of the day, I can't look at Smith's body of work with other teams to trust that things are going to get better once he gets "his" players, whoever his type of player is.

For a victory, that Jag game was very hard to watch.
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Old 01-04-2008   #24
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

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Exactly, I acknowledged the field position problemas in my initial post and how that may effect stats. Even so, Smith tenure with the Texans has been a little scary.

Starting with the first three games of last season which were beyond scary.

Or even this last game against the Jags backups. The Texans were ahead. They turned the ball over once. And the defense had few answers.

My concerns are not just statistical though they confirm my feelings about stuff. It just is so grim to be yelling your head off for third and longs and then having the other team convert it for the first down. Repeatedly.

I just wish I had the same sort of feeling I get watching the offense--that with a little more time, it will be something.

There shouldn't be a reason that going into year 3 of Smith being DC that I still haven't seen what a Smith defense is supposed to look like, other than praying that the other team shoots itself in the foot. And at the end of the day, I can't look at Smith's body of work with other teams to trust that things are going to get better once he gets "his" players, whoever his type of player is.

For a victory, that Jag game was very hard to watch.
Due to CB's playing a very soft zone. It ticked me off when our CB's played 7-10 yds soft when the other team only needs 5.

I agree. Thank goodness for excellent Special Teams play.
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Old 01-04-2008   #25
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

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Due to CB's playing a very soft zone. It ticked me off when our CB's played 7-10 yds soft when the other team only needs 5.

I agree. Thank goodness for excellent Special Teams play.
No doubt. Well at least I have 8 months to recover my voice from yelling at Smith (through the TV) so much. Extremely frustrating to see 10 yard cushions and dropping 8 back into coverage only to see QBs like Joey Harrington convert another 3rd and 8.

When our defense makes Harrington, Lemon, and VY look like they should be going to Hawaii, something just isn't right.
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Old 01-04-2008   #26
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

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No doubt. Well at least I have 8 months to recover my voice from yelling at Smith (through the TV) so much. Extremely frustrating to see 10 yard cushions and dropping 8 back into coverage only to see QBs like Joey Harrington convert another 3rd and 8.

When our defense makes Harrington, Lemon, and VY look like they should be going to Hawaii, something just isn't right.
What's even worse is that the defense was supposed to be the strength of this team going into the season. The last 13 games of last season, we were OK defensively. I really expected that to carry over especially with the improvements and experience we'd gained.

I was worried about the lack of changes made in the secondary but I thought we were going to play a lot better than we ended up playing.
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Old 01-04-2008   #27
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

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What's even worse is that the defense was supposed to be the strength of this team going into the season. The last 13 games of last season, we were OK defensively. I really expected that to carry over especially with the improvements and experience we'd gained.

I was worried about the lack of changes made in the secondary but I thought we were going to play a lot better than we ended up playing.
I never did get why people thought the Defense would be the strength of this team.

Our LB core is H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E. Greenwoods el stinkos and I have no idea what the Danny Clark/Anderson thing they have going on over there. Neither one of them are any good. Please spare me the Greenwood stats, he can't cover, can't generate pressure, and does not hit the hole with authority.

Unfortunately its not even our biggest weakness. The DLine still sucks. Williams is really the only one worth mentioning, and like Williams last year Amobi gets a pass b/c he is a rookie. TJ is not the run stopping space hog we need him to be and we have no DE to play opposite of Williams. When we first drafted Amobi everyone said he is horrible at playing the run but is a stellar pass rush. I can not argue that assessment after what I saw of him this year. So lets hope he learns how to play the run next year.

CB wise we would be golden if DRob didn't suffer his injury. Bennett looked really good and would be a good complement to Robinson. Unfortunately I don't think he will be back next year so we need to find a replacement now to hold the fort down till he gets back.

Our safety position improved with Demps. If we resign him it will be a big step in the right direction.

So I would have to classify our DLine then our LB's as our top two needs on defense.
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Old 01-04-2008   #28
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

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I never did get why people thought the Defense would be the strength of this team.

So I would have to classify our DLine then our LB's as our top two needs on defense.
I'm pretty sure that the reasoning was over the last 10 games of the '06 season we were a top 10 defense (so to speak), and that would be built upon. After David Carr's final season as a starter, I don't think anybody knew what to make of our offense, seeing as how we would be starting a new QB, a new RB, and probably 2 completely different receivers. The O-line would mostly be the same (Which could be a good or a bad thing), and the TE position would be the same. I think defense was going to be a strength almost by default.

I would like to say that I agree with you wholeheartedly about our OLB's. I do think that Greenwood is quite overrated (And overpaid too) and only turns in 1 - 3 really good games a year. You'll notice that we got burned on runs outside and on screen passes a lot this year, and I think that's our OLB's fault more than anything else.

The D-line, I think, could probably use a later round draft pick to bolster itself. It's tough to find those DE's and DT's in the later rounds (DT's especially) that are going to make an impact in their rookie year, but it can happen. I don't really think FA is the way to go with that, unless we get some huge sack monster to go along with Mario.

I also don't see how we keep Johnson, who absolutely got creamed by the run quite a bit this year. All he has is his attitude, and I would rather jettison that, so that we don't have to worry about stupid penalties again. He needs to take a huge paycut to stay with this team I believe.

EDIT: After all that however, I still think we need another top flight CB. Would having 2 really good CB's and a good up and coming CB hurt us? Especially with Nickel and Dime packages?
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Last edited by b0ng; 01-04-2008 at 10:33 PM.
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Old 01-04-2008   #29
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Miami: 32nd in defense, 29th in offense. explains a lot.
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Old 01-04-2008   #30
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

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The D-line, I think, could probably use a later round draft pick to bolster itself. It's tough to find those DE's and DT's in the later rounds (DT's especially) that are going to make an impact in their rookie year, but it can happen. I don't really think FA is the way to go with that, unless we get some huge sack monster to go along with Mario.
At this time, I have no idea if someone will take a flyer on him, or if he will drop. If he drops, I would like to see what we could do with Tommy Blake. I think he has his situation cleared up and things in order. Has a lot of work to do in the off season, but the kid has talent, and speed. Not sure if we could use him as a DE, or possible an OLB, but if the price it right.
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Old 01-04-2008   #31
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

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At this time, I have no idea if someone will take a flyer on him, or if he will drop. If he drops, I would like to see what we could do with Tommy Blake. I think he has his situation cleared up and things in order. Has a lot of work to do in the off season, but the kid has talent, and speed. Not sure if we could use him as a DE, or possible an OLB, but if the price it right.
At 6'4" and 243 lbs he seems a little undersized going as a DE. I could see him being an OLB. Well, actually if he's got boatloads of speed maybe he can be one of those smaller Elvis Dumervile types that can get to the QB in a hurry even if they are approximately half the size of a normal O-lineman.

I think we could see a lot of UDFA's come through the TC this year. Those kind of guys seem to be Rick Smith specialties.
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