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Old 12-16-2004   #1
Mistril48
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Default Bears Terrific 12 v. Texan Terrific 12

Old Posting (new posting below)

In a salary cap regime like the NFL, the value of a player is a function of his performance measured against his cap value. A non-expansion NFL team typically drafts 12 players (the “T12” if you will) in the first 3 rounds over a 4 year period. These 12 players are particularly valuable to a franchise in a salary cap regime, because they typically have much lower cap values than players signed through free agency. For example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000.

Typically, an impact player becomes a free agent after four accrued years and either leaves, or receives his first big free agency contract. Each year, a franchise typically loses 3 first day drafted players to free agency (unless they re-sign the players) and get three replacements through the draft, thereby maintaining their T12 (in some cases, of course, a player drafted to be a T12 player won’t work out and a team may end up with less than 12, or a second day drafted player may excel, like Domanick Davis, thereby creating more than 12). McKinney, Bradford, Wong, Smith and Wade are all examples of four year players who got big raises to come to the Texans for their 5th year.

In the 2002 season, the Texans first year, they only had 5 T12 (1 first, 2 second and 2 third), while all the other teams had 12. Bummer. Unlike the Panthers and the Jaguars, the Texans weren’t given any extra first round picks. Hard to compete.

The good news is the Texans have now caught up, thanks to expansion picks and Charlie Casserly’s astute trades. They now have 12 players who they drafted on the first day. The Texans now have a T12 like other NFL teams. Good.

New Posting

How does the Texans next opponent, the Bears’, T12 compare with the Texans’ T12?

. . YR . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . YR . . . Bears (4 yrs)

F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .’01 WR David Terrell
I. . ’02 . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . .’02 OT Marc Colombo
R . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . .‘03 DE Michael Haynes
S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘03 QB Rex Grossman
T . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson. . . . . . . . ’04 DT Tommie Harris
. . .’04 . LB Jason Babin

S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .’01 RB Anthony Thomas
E . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
C . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts
O . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru . . . . . . . . .’03 DB Charles Tilman
N . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . ’04 DT Terry Johnson
D

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 OG Mike Gandy (released)
T . ’02 . OL Fred Weary . . . . . . . . . . .’02 DB Roosevelt Williams (released)
H . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released) . . . .’02 OG Terrence Metcalf
I . .’03 . LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . .’03 LB Lance Briggs
R . ’03 . OL Seth Wand
D . ’03 . QB Dave Ragone
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’04 WR Bernard Berrian


The Texans have drafted 13 first day players and the Bears have drafted 13 first day players. The Texans have generated 7 starters (Carr, Johnson, Gaffney, Pitts, Wand, Babin, Robinson) and the Bears have generated 5 starters (I think – Terrell, Grossman, Harris, Briggs, Berrian).


. . . . . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . . . . . Bears (4 yrs)

. . . . . . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . . . . QB Rex Grossman
. . . . . . QB Dave Ragone

. . . . . . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . . . RB Anthony Thomas


. . . . . .WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . . . . WR David Terrell
. . . . . .WR Jabar Gaffney. . . . . . . . . . . WR Bernard Berrian

. . . . . . TE Benny Joppru

. . . . . .OL Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . . . . OT Marc Colombo
. . . . . .OL Seth Wand . . . . . . . . . . . . . .OG Mike Gandy (released)
. . . . . .OL Fred Weary . . . . . . . . . . . . . OG Terrence Metcalf


. . . . . .DL Charles Hill (released) . . . . . . . .DE Michael Haynes
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT Tommie Harris
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT Terry Johnson

. . . . . .LB Jason Babin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . LB Lance Briggs
. . . . . .LB Antwan Peek

. . . . . .CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . . . . .DB Charles Tillman
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB Roosevelt Williams (released)


Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above?

Old Posting

And the news gets better for the Texans. In 2005, the Texans should keep all of their T12 (none will have four accrued years) and add 4 new members through the 2005 draft (1 first, 1 second and 2 thirds), giving them a total of 16 T12. Great news!


. . YR . . Texans (4 yrs)

F. .‘02 . QB David Carr
I . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson
R . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson
S . ‘04 . LB Jason Babin
T . ’05 . . . . P I C K

S . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
E . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts
C . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru
O . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings
N . ’05 . . . . P I C K
D

. . ‘02 . OL Fred Weary
T . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released)
H . ’03 . LB Antwan Peek
I . .‘03 . OL Seth Wand
R . ‘03 . QB Dave Ragone
D . ’05 . . . . P I C K
. .. ’05 . . . . P I C K
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Old 12-16-2004   #2
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Berrian has only started one game for the Bears this year. Total of 11 receptions coming in on games.
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Old 12-16-2004   #3
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Those first round picks aren't that strong. No wonder the Bears are struggling.
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Old 12-16-2004   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak
Berrian has only started one game for the Bears this year. Total of 11 receptions coming in on games...
I have difficulty with the concept of 'starter' and generally give the benefit of the doubt to the team drafting the player. For example, it sometimes is confusing if the 3rd WR, FB, or 2 TE is a starter, or nickle backs, etc. I just try to identify guys like Gaffney, Moran Norris or Billy MIller, who play a lot every game, whether they 'start' (ie are out for the first play) or not.

Another example would be Glen Earl, who I consider a starter, but I beleive that the Texans had Marlon McCree on in the nickle package for the first play.
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