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Old 11-23-2004   #1
nunusguy
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Default Caper's short-term goal & Texans' long-term goals now in Conflict ?

We are now @ the point (or rapidly approaching that point), where we are faced with this obvious reality: our chances of getting in the playoffs this season are 0. I'm not suggesting that means we should start tanking in games
to maximize our draft position, but we should consider elevating the priority
of playing certain people for experimental and/or developement purposes.
Capers top priority is the same as most employees - job security. The way for him to achieve this goal is almost certainly to win as many games as he
can. I think its a fair and valid question to ask if these 2 objectives might be
@ odds ?
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Old 11-23-2004   #2
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When I think of Texans and playoffs, I cringe. As much as I like the Texans,I don't see it. I feel we would get blownout in a playoff game. Even when we were on our little win streak. the wins sugarcoated the weaknesses of this team. Esp. when I watch other games like the Eagles,Steelers,Denver, Patriots ...

Even with wins, we cannot do what it takes to win a championship and that is run the ball and play defense. We might get by if we could play defense, but the fact is 1) we only have 14 sacks so far and 2) 3rd down (teams eat us up)

I wish we could win out and prove me wrong. We just don't have enough weapons yet.
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Old 11-23-2004   #3
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I think most people in the Texans organization were not 'expecting' the playoffs this year. Capers is in zero trouble, and he will continue to follow his plan of developing this team over the long haul. Nothing has changed.
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Old 11-23-2004   #4
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Default Capers in good standing

Most of the coaching staff will be back next year. You'll always have turnover of 1 or 2 guys getting "promotions" or opportunities across the league or moving to thecollegiate ranks, but Capers and the staff are fine. NOW, if we were really an established franchise, his butt would be hotter than satan in hell!
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Old 11-23-2004   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
I think most people in the Texans organization were not 'expecting' the playoffs this year. Capers is in zero trouble, and he will continue to follow his plan of developing this team over the long haul. Nothing has changed.

Thats too bad because I for one have never liked Capers. He hasn't proven anything anywhere other than that he is a defensive coordinator that is out of place head coaching. You know me and what I think about 5 years. Way too much job security with no measuring stick along the way to evaluate the plan. What happens if our owner decides it didn't work after 5 years. We just wasted a lot of time and talent. It doesn't take 5 years to build a team in this day and age of free agents and also the fact of the supplemental draft in which we were the only participant. No other expansion teams to thin the supplemental draft like with Carolina and Jacksonville.
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Old 11-23-2004   #6
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It doesn't take 5 years to rebuild an existing team. More like 2 if you do it right. I do think it takes a good 3-4 years to build one from scratch though. The Browns are still struggling.
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Old 11-23-2004   #7
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To build a playoff CONTENDER from ground zero, 3-4 years. To build a playoff power that it is reasonable to expect a move past the first round 4-5 years and that is if your 1st day picks pan out and you have a bit of luck on day two and the front office doesn't screw it up in FA. The Browns haven't been real successfull in any of that and they have a clown for a coach. So far, we have been pretty good in those areas and our coaching staff may have drawbacks, but overall are moderatly solid. May not be the right team to get us to the SB, but a pretty good teaching/building staff.
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Old 11-23-2004   #8
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Caper's threshold for survival this year is very low - just needs to improve
on last years record so shouldn't be a problem, but not a slam dunk. If he doesn't win 2 more, he might have a big problem.
When this team (or any team for that matter), is eliminated from the playoffs, winning more games that year should not be top priority and actually
its counterproductive over the long-term view. Of course nobody admits this, but it realy is.
A more productive approach would be, say start playing a Joppru (assuming he's fit & healthy), even though he couldn't contribute to a victory as much as a Breuner or Miller could. Also, play Hollings instead of D.Davis. Perhaps
experiment with a LB foursomes that included, at one time or another, Peek & Anderson (Miss rookie) at the outside LBs and Babin and Wong at the inside slots.
This improves our chances to see what we've got now and what we're gonna need to look for in FA and the college draft in 2005.
I don't think Capers would do that, he'd be to busy padding his resume.
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Old 11-23-2004   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nunusguy
Caper's threshold for survival this year is very low - just needs to improve
on last years record so shouldn't be a problem, but not a slam dunk. If he doesn't win 2 more, he might have a big problem.
When this team (or any team for that matter), is eliminated from the playoffs, winning more games that year should not be top priority and actually
its counterproductive over the long-term view. Of course nobody admits this, but it realy is.
A more productive approach would be, say start playing a Joppru (assuming he's fit & healthy), even though he couldn't contribute to a victory as much as a Breuner or Miller could. Also, play Hollings instead of D.Davis. Perhaps
experiment with a LB foursomes that included, at one time or another, Peek & Anderson (Miss rookie) at the outside LBs and Babin and Wong at the inside slots.
This improves our chances to see what we've got now and what we're gonna need to look for in FA and the college draft in 2005.
I don't think Capers would do that, he'd be to busy padding his resume.
its hard to do to much of that and expect people to pay 50 to 100 for a ticket to watch you prepare for next year.
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Old 11-23-2004   #10
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One the biggest falicies that exist is that teams in the NFL tank games in order to imrove draft position. A good portion of this in money related. Unless there is a clear number one, most teams don't want to bother with over paying for palyers at the top of the draft. the other thing is that most teams trust their ability to scout players so in the team's mind there is not a ton of difference bwteeen 10 and 15.

Also, for the weaknesses that the Texans have a mid round pick will be as avantageous as having a top 10.
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Old 11-23-2004   #11
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That's true. Players don't tank games. Their resume is on game film. Their contracts are just a reflection of how they grade on film. Play poorly on purpose means to take a pay cut when they grade you out.

Players know this. They don't tank games to have less leverage on their next contract and have the team drop low enough in the draft to replace them with a rookie.
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Old 11-24-2004   #12
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and.. call me a romantic.. but i dont think we have signed players that are capable of tanking a game.
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Old 11-24-2004   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan
... Unless there is a clear number one, most teams don't want to bother with over paying for players at the top of the draft ...
I agree with your statement, with some clarification.

In last year's draft, IMO there were 7 players in the top group, Manning, Roethlisberger, Gallery, Taylor, Winslow, Fitzgerald and Williams. Each was said to be the #1 player on at least one teams draft board. If you could reasonably get into the top 7, it was worth your while to do so. After the top 7, there was a leveling off of talent.

The big mistakes at the top of the draft were:

a) evaluating Rivers as a 4th pick;
b) Cleveland trading up one spot, when they still would have drafted a top pick (they would have drafted Williams, or Winslow, whichever Detroit didn't draft, without the trade);

If the best available player at your slot matches a need, make a selection (like Atlanta and Houston did), otherwise trade down and pay less for a selection of similar talent. Jacksonville needed to trade up for Roy Williams, or down with Buffalo (Buffalo takes Roethlisberger), or the Jets (Jets take Dunta Robinson) and then Jacksonville takes best available WR (probably would have had choice of Clayton, or Reggie Williams, or DE)

Also in last year's draft, it was clear that there were 2 only CBs in the second group of talent. If you wanted one (like the Jets and Steelers did), you needed to get up ahead of Houston, otherwise you had to go with another position or take a tier 3 talent.

The Cowboys are an example of what can go wrong if you get caught with a high pick the wrong year. They drafted very high (and paid alot) two years in a row. I don't think anyone would disagree that they got a tier 1 talent each year, but they didn't get any of the triplet type player they desperately needed. Williams in particular was unfortunate, because while he clearly was a top tier talent, you would prefer not to use a top teir selection on a safety.
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Old 11-24-2004   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markbeth
its hard to do to much of that and expect people to pay 50 to 100 for a ticket to watch you prepare for next year.
I hear you and I know most fans feel that way, but I don't. If you gotta have
say 9 wins to get in the playoffs, then I don't see any difference between 8
wins or 5 wins. You're either in the playoffs or your not in the playoffs. And
5 wins gets you more leverage in the college draft. And everyone getting in the playoffs is 0-0 because its a brand new season. So the only W-L record that means success is the one with >= bare minimum # of Ws to get you in the POs.
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