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Old 09-16-2004   #1
Mistril48
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Default Lions Terrific 12 v. Texan Terrific 12

Old Posting (new posting below)

In a salary cap regime like the NFL, the value of a player is a function of his performance measured against his cap value. A non-expansion NFL team typically drafts 12 players (the “Terrific 12” if you will) in the first 3 rounds over a 4 year period. These 12 players are particularly valuable to a franchise in a salary cap regime, because they typically have much lower cap values than players signed through free agency. For example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000.

Typically, an impact player becomes a free agent after four accrued years and either leaves, or receives his first big free agency contract. Each year, a franchise typically loses 3 first day drafted players to free agency (unless they re-sign the players) and get three replacements through the draft, thereby maintaining their Terrific 12 (in some cases, of course, a player drafted to be a Terrific 12 player won’t work out and a team may end up with less than 12, or a second day drafted player may excel, like Domanick Davis, thereby creating more than 12). McKinney, Bradford, Wong, Smith and Wade are all examples of four year players who got big raises to come to the Texans for their 5th year.

In the 2002 season, the Texans first year, they only had 5 Terrific 12 (1 first, 2 second and 2 third), while all the other teams had 12. Bummer. Unlike the Panthers and the Jaguars, the Texans weren’t given any extra first round picks. Hard to compete.

The good news is the Texans have now caught up, thanks to expansion picks and Charlie Casserly’s astute trades. They now have 12 players who they drafted on the first day. The Texans now have a Terrific 12 like other NFL teams. Good.

New Posting

How about the Texans next opponent, the Detroit Lions. How do their Terrific 12 compare with the Texans?

. . YR . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . .YR . . Lions (4 yrs)

F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‘01 OT Jeff Backus
I. . ’02 . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . .’02 QB Joey Harrington
R . ’03 .WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . ‘03 WR Charles Rogers (IR)
S . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . .’04 WR Roy Williams
T . ’04 . LB Jason Babin . . . . . . . . . .’04 RB Kevin Jones

S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 OL Dominic Raiola
E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '01 DT Shaun Rogers
C . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney. . . . . . . . .
O . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . .'02 DE Kalimba Edwards
N . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru . . . . . . . . .‘03 LB Boss Bailey
D . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . .‘04 LB Teddy Lehmen

T . ’02 . OL Fred Weary
H . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released) . . . 02 DB Andre Goodman
I . ’03. . LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . .'03 DE Cory Redding
R . ’03 . OL Seth Wand
D . ’03 . QB Dave Ragone
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .'04 LB Keith Smith

Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above (I believe that the Lions were really helped by the Browns giving up a second round 2004 pick to move up one pick, to take Winslow)?

How did the Texans Terrific 12 do in week 1?

David Carr - 19 of 25 (76.0%) for 229 yds 0 TDs and 2 INT

. . . I was surprised to learn that Carr had the highest completion % in the NFL and his yds/att of 9.16 was 2nd in the AFC.

Andre Johnson - 4 rec. for 59 yds. (14.5 yd ave.)
Jabar Gaffney - 4 rec. for 40 yds. (10.0 yd ave.)

Tony Hollings – 3 rushes for 10 yds and 1 rec. for 27 (4 touches for a 9.2 yd ave.)

Jason Babins – I believe the Texans (as opposed to the NFL stats) had Babins with 9 tackles and 4 pressures.

I believe that Chester Pitts and Seth Wand also played well as the left side of our line.

Old Posting

And the news gets better for the Texans. In 2005, the Texans should keep all of their Terrific 12 (none will have four accrued years) and add 4 new members through the 2005 draft (1 first, 1 second and 2 thirds), giving them a total of 16 Terrific 12. Great news!
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Old 09-17-2004   #2
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This one of the first teams that I like the talent they have drafted and would consider trading for some of their players. Mainly some of their defensive picks, like Bailey, Lehmen, and Redding. But that could be just because we could use some defensive help so they look especially attractive to me.
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Old 09-17-2004   #3
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Their terrific 12 is definitely competitive with ours. I like their drafts the last 3 years.
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Old 09-17-2004   #4
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I agree that the Lions have a good bundle of first day draft picks. Remember that in comparing our bundles that the Lions have had four years of picks and while none of ours will have four years of accrued service after this year, the Lions will typically lose starting LT Jeff Backus; starting C Dominic Raiola and starting DT Shaun Rogers (or pay them big raises).

I think the Lions were really helped by the Browns gving them an extra 2nd round pick, which they allowed them to trade up to take Jones and still take Lehman. I think they were the big winners in last years draft.
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