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Old 05-20-2014   #1
Playoffs 
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Default Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

Interesting...

Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?
Quote:
Almost every year some team coughs up a first-round pick in the following year's draft in order to acquire an immediate player.
...
The Bills were the latest team to pull off such a move, trading away a 2015 first-round pick in exchange for moving up five spots and grabbing Sammy Watkins. Say what you want about Watkins -- I had him rated No. 2 overall in this draft -- but there's a ton of risk there, should the Bills finish with a bad record in 2014.

But how do things typically work out for a team that trades away a first-round pick?

I went back through the last decade and picked out all the teams that traded away a first-round pick for a player and mapped out its win-loss percentage over the next five years...
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Old 05-20-2014   #2
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Default Re: Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

For those that don't want to bother reading eh entire thing, suffice it to say that the teams that DID trade away those future first rounders did see an average net gain of >1 GM/yr. It decreased the following year.
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Old 05-20-2014   #3
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Default Re: Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

I am probably only 90% against trading firsts from the following year. Too much risk for me. I'll take them more so than give but really do not like either. A Watkins is worth a trade up and of course the spot you trade from is known but not the pick you get from next year so lots to consider but for me, probably not going to do it.
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Old 05-21-2014   #4
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Default Re: Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

If you need a QB you trade future 1st's. Or if it's a particularly strong draft\like this yrs you can use future picks (Not 1sts) to move up and pick positions of need. For instance, I really like Jaylen Watkins and since he has experience playing CB/FS he could've filled multiple needs. I would've given up a 2015 2nd to trade up and pick him in the bottom of the 3rd.

However that also requires scouting the 2015 draft before the 2014 draft so that you can figure out what the strengths and weakness of the 2015 draft is. Is the 2015 draft strong at the CB/FS position and can you find a 10 yr starter in the 2nd rd?

Also playing into this and probably why the Texans didn't trade future picks is with their current QB situation they were hedging their bets if Savage doesn't look like he's the future they will need the 2nd rd pick to be able to move up and pick their QB in the 2015 draft.
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Old 05-21-2014   #5
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Default Re: Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
If you need a QB you trade future 1st's. Or if it's a particularly strong draft\like this yrs you can use future picks (Not 1sts) to move up and pick positions of need. For instance, I really like Jaylen Watkins and since he has experience playing CB/FS he could've filled multiple needs. I would've given up a 2015 2nd to trade up and pick him in the bottom of the 3rd.

However that also requires scouting the 2015 draft before the 2014 draft so that you can figure out what the strengths and weakness of the 2015 draft is. Is the 2015 draft strong at the CB/FS position and can you find a 10 yr starter in the 2nd rd?

Also playing into this and probably why the Texans didn't trade future picks is with their current QB situation they were hedging their bets if Savage doesn't look like he's the future they will need the 2nd rd pick to be able to move up and pick their QB in the 2015 draft.
Yeah, they're all GREAT in school this year but will inevitably SUCK next year coming into the league and we're still in the same boat, taking on water...
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Old 05-21-2014   #6
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Default Re: Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

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Originally Posted by drs23 View Post
Yeah, they're all GREAT in school this year but will inevitably SUCK next year coming into the league and we're still in the same boat, taking on water...
I find it hilarious how people are just going to act like this past draft cycle didn't even happen. Did we not learn anything?

Last year, everybody was saying that 2014 was going to be a great QB draft class. Then we got to the end and it was only mediocre.

But just wait until 2015. That will be a great QB class...
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Old 05-21-2014   #7
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Default Re: Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

Normally I'm completely against ever trading a future 1st round pick to move up, but if that once in a decade QB comes along (Andrew Luck) and we need a QB then absolutely trade up. Next years 1st and even 2nd round picks are just to valuable to trade away unless your really certain the prospect your trading up for is that good and that important to the team. Trading those picks also implies that we're set or close to it at all other positions so that trading up for this prospect is what will put you over the top and into a real shot at the Super Bowl.
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Old 05-21-2014   #8
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Default Re: Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

I'm against trading future assets unless you absolutely need to use them to grab a player that will turn your franchise around.

I actually prefer to trade down and acquire assets whenever possible so that you will have more to offer when that move inevitably needs to be made.
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Old 05-21-2014   #9
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Default Re: Trading future first-round picks: Good to win now, bad to win later?

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
I find it hilarious how people are just going to act like this past draft cycle didn't even happen. Did we not learn anything?

Last year, everybody was saying that 2014 was going to be a great QB draft class. Then we got to the end and it was only mediocre.

But just wait until 2015. That will be a great QB class...
This is what annoyed the piss out of me. Tahj Boyd was a first rounder in 2013. If only he would've slipped to us in the mid-20's (where many thought we would be drafting this year)...

Oh wait...
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