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Old 02-26-2014   #41
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
That he is no seer is absolutely true. But Mayock is arguably the most accurate guy out there, in a world of inaccuracy.
Now. With that said.

What are we trying to measure here?

Are we trying to figure out which of these Pundits is able to accurately assess how the teams are going to assess and draft? Or are we trying to figure out how accurately these Pundits assess talent?

I'd be interested to take a look at the guys Mayock/Kiper/McShay rated highly vs. those players' actual production. Because just because they don't get who's going to pick whom where correctly doesn't necessarily mean that they missed on their assessment of which guys are talented.

I was looking at WRs a few years ago and comparing where they were drafted to where they were mocked and what I found is that the "draft experts" identified the guys who were going to be drafted but they didn't identify WHERE those guys were going to be drafted... and that for the most part, the NFL teams drafted guys in more of the order that they were productive than the "experts" did. Of course, that could be because the teams drafted the guys higher and gave them more chances to be productive.
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Old 02-26-2014   #42
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
agree to disagree. Mayock is just off. His attempt to stand out from those around him, chance to beat his chest with another, "this is my guy", "love this kid", "he's going to be special" stick. I don't know, nothing personal but he has worn on me. His top player(s) per position do not match my own or others I respect either. Mack could be a top 10 choice but should he be, little lone #1 overall
Or maybe Mayoc is just a contrarian ? Do you happen to remember a few years ago when Husker DT Suh came out and everybody had him as their top guy escept Mayoc: he had OU DT Gerald McCoy ranked higher.
Mack is definitely in the conversation as one of the top non-QBs in this Draft, but personally I would rank atleast 3 other non-QBs ahead of him. But no doubt Mayoc is very bias about his home town guys from the Philly area.
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Old 02-26-2014   #43
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
Now. With that said.

What are we trying to measure here?

Are we trying to figure out which of these Pundits is able to accurately assess how the teams are going to assess and draft? Or are we trying to figure out how accurately these Pundits assess talent?

I'd be interested to take a look at the guys Mayock/Kiper/McShay rated highly vs. those players' actual production. Because just because they don't get who's going to pick whom where correctly doesn't necessarily mean that they missed on their assessment of which guys are talented.

I was looking at WRs a few years ago and comparing where they were drafted to where they were mocked and what I found is that the "draft experts" identified the guys who were going to be drafted but they didn't identify WHERE those guys were going to be drafted... and that for the most part, the NFL teams drafted guys in more of the order that they were productive than the "experts" did. Of course, that could be because the teams drafted the guys higher and gave them more chances to be productive.
I don't really have an answer for you, but from my observation, they release their mock drafts with most of the effort being focused on who will be taken at what spot. However, most of the time, they sort of advocate the pick by talking up the qualities of the player. It's not that often that you see a pundit predict a player taken at a spot and then say "this is a round or two too early, but I think they'll do it". Occasionally you'll see that, or even an outright "do not like" comment in the prediction, but it seems like most of the time, a prediction is accompanied by a general comment on the players qualities.

So to my mind, they are advocating most of those picks unless specified otherwise.
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Old 03-03-2014   #44
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

3/3 update
Quote:
Quarterback
1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
2. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida
4. Derek Carr, Fresno State
t5. AJ McCarron, Alabama
t5. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois

New entry: Garoppolo

Running back
1. Bishop Sankey, Washington
2. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
3. Jeremy Hill, LSU
4. Andre Williams, Boston College
5. Tre Mason, Auburn

Rise: Sankey (3)
Fall: Hyde (1), Hill (2)

Wide receiver
1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson
2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M
3. Marqise Lee, USC
4. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State
t5. Jarvis Landry, LSU
t5. Odell Beckham, LSU

Rise: Evans (3)
Fall: Lee (2), Benjamin (4)
New entry: Cooks, Beckham

Tight end
1. Eric Ebron, North Carolina
2. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
3. Jace Amaro, Texas Tech
4. Troy Niklas, Notre Dame
5. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa

Center
1. Marcus Martin, USC
2. Weston Richburg, Colorado State
3. Travis Swanson, Arkansas
4. Bryan Stork, Florida State
5. Gabe Ikard, Oklahoma

Guard
1. David Yankey, Stanford
2. Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
3. Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State
4. Chris Watt, Notre Dame
5. Trai Turner, LSU

New entry: Turner
Out: Cyril Richardson, Baylor (5)

Offensive tackle
1. Greg Robinson, Auburn
2. Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
3. Taylor Lewan, Michigan
4. Zack Martin, Notre Dame
5. Joel Bitonio, Nevada

Rise: Robinson (2)
Fall: Matthews (1)
New entry: Bitonio
Out: Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama (5)

Defensive tackle
1. Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh
2. Timmy Jernigan, Florida State
3. Louis Nix III, Notre Dame
4. Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota
5. Kelcy Quarles, South Carolina

Rise: Donald (3)
Fall: Nix (1)
New entry: Quarles
Out: Dominique Easley, Florida

Defensive end
1. Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
2. Kony Ealy, Missouri
3. Dee Ford, Auburn
4. Scott Crichton, Oregon State
5. Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame

New entry: Tuitt
Out: Trent Murphy, Stanford

Linebacker
1. Khalil Mack, Buffalo
2. C.J. Mosley, Alabama
3. Anthony Barr, UCLA
4. Chris Borland, Wisconsin
5. Ryan Shazier, Ohio State

Cornerback
1. Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State
2. Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State
3. Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech
4. Bradley Roby, Ohio State
5. Jason Verrett, TCU

Rise: Roby (5)
Fall: Verrett (4)

Safety
1. Calvin Pryor, Louisville
2. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama
3. Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois
4. Deone Bucannon, Washington State
5. Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State

Rise: Ward (4)
Fall: Joyner (3)
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Old 03-05-2014   #45
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Mayock on Mack: 1st or 2nd defender drafted
Quote:
NFL Network's Mike Mayock believes Buffalo edge player Khalil Mack will be the first or second defensive player selected in May.
The other is Jadeveon Clowney, but it is still noteworthy that Mayock notes there is a possibility of Mack being selected before the South Carolina pass rusher. "The wildcards are the quarterbacks," Mayock said. "Will a quarterback go No. 1? Will a tackle go No. 2?" Mack ranks as Josh Norris' No. 3 overall prospect.
Source: NFL.com Mar 5 - 12:44 PM
Mayock: Ford is a late 1st round 3-4 OLB
NFL network's Mike Mayock believes Auburn edge player Dee Ford is a late first-round pick as a 3-4 OLB.
Quote:
"He jumped well, he ran well, his positional drills were excellent," Mayock said after witnessing Ford's pro day workout. The Auburn defender was held out of Combine workouts after doctors were scared off by a back injury that occurred in 2011. Rotoworld's Josh Norris does not think Ford is limited to a certain defensive scheme, since he shows burst off the snap, flexibility, and even hand use from multiple edge alignments.
Source: NFL.com Mar 5 - 1:00 PM
http://www.rotoworld.com/playernews/...ft-player-news
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Old 03-09-2014   #46
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

wrong thread
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Old 03-31-2014   #47
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Mayock's Update...
Quote:
Quarterback
1. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
2. Blake Bortles, Central Florida
3. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
4. Derek Carr, Fresno State
t5. AJ McCarron, Alabama
t5. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois

Rise: Manziel (2), Bortles (3)
Fall: Bridgewater (1)

Running back
1. Bishop Sankey, Washington
2. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
3. Jeremy Hill, LSU
4. Tre Mason, Auburn
5. Andre Williams, Boston College

Rise: Mason (5)
Fall: Williams (4)

Wide receiver
1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson
2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M
3. Marqise Lee, USC
4. Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
t5. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State
t5. Jarvis Landry, LSU
t5. Odell Beckham, LSU

Tight end
1. Eric Ebron, North Carolina
2. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
3. Jace Amaro, Texas Tech
4. Troy Niklas, Notre Dame
5. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa

Center
1. Marcus Martin, USC
2. Weston Richburg, Colorado State
3. Travis Swanson, Arkansas
4. Bryan Stork, Florida State
5. Gabe Ikard, Oklahoma

Guard
1. David Yankey, Stanford
2. Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
3. Brandon Thomas, Clemson
4. Trai Turner, LSU
5. Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State

New entry: Thomas
Rise: Turner (5)
Fall: Jackson (3)
Out: Chris Watt, Notre Dame (4)

Offensive tackle
1. Greg Robinson, Auburn
2. Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
3. Taylor Lewan, Michigan
4. Zack Martin, Notre Dame
5. Joel Bitonio, Nevada

Defensive tackle
1. Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh
2. Timmy Jernigan, Florida State
3. Louis Nix III, Notre Dame
4. Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota
5. Daniel McCullers, Tennessee

Rise: Donald (3)
New entry: McCullers
Out: Kelcy Quarles, South Carolina (5)

Defensive end
1. Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
2. Kony Ealy, Missouri
3. Dee Ford, Auburn
4. Scott Crichton, Oregon State
5. Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame

Outside linebacker
1. Khalil Mack, Buffalo
2. Anthony Barr, UCLA
3. Ryan Shazier, Ohio State
4. Trent Murphy, Stanford
5. Marcus Smith, Louisville

Inside linebacker
1. C.J. Mosley, Alabama
2. Chris Borland, Wisconsin
3. Shayne Skov, Stanford
4. Max Bullough, Michigan State
5. Preston Brown, Louisville

Cornerback
1. Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State
2. Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech
3. Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State
4. Bradley Roby, Ohio State
5. Jason Verrett, TCU

Rise: Fuller (3)
Fall: Gilbert (2)

Safety
1. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama
2. Calvin Pryor, Louisville
3. Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois
4. Deone Bucannon, Washington State
5. Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State

Rise: Clinton-Dix (2)
Fall: Pryor (1)
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Old 03-31-2014   #48
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Default

Love that Bridgewater has slipped. My ideal scenario is trade 1.1 with bills and take TB at 9. Doesn't look too far fetched, get the best QB in the draft and a boat load of extra picks.

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Old 04-26-2014   #49
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Mayock: Teddy Bridgewater not a first-round quarterback
Quote:
"I would say in general, tape is worth about 85 percent of an overall grade, and the rest of the process is set up for red flags, and to go back and watch more tape to try to confirm what you saw or didn't see," Mayock said. "I saw about four of his tapes prior to the combine, and I really liked him. I thought he had a chance to be a franchise quarterback from what I saw on the tape. ... Except you've got to see the quarterbacks throw the ball live. I've never seen a top-level quarterback in the last 10 years have a bad pro day, until Teddy Bridgewater. He had no accuracy, the ball came out funny, the arm strength wasn't there, and it made me question everything I saw on tape because this was live.

"I went back and watched a bunch more tape and compared him to the rest of the guys in the draft," he said. "And like it or not, I've come to a conclusion -- if I was a GM in the NFL, I would not take him in the first round of the draft."

In his latest position-by-position rankings, Mayock slots Bridgewater behind Manziel and Bortles as the third-best quarterback in the draft. Considering the analyst had him atop his list coming out of the NFL Scouting Combine, that's a rather signficant drop in just a few weeks...
As suspected, Mayock no longer does the work. "About four" is likely an exaggeration... but he goes on NFLN and gives opinions as if he's informed.

Teddy was one of the top players at the time... so how much work did Mayock do on lesser prospects???
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Old 04-28-2014   #50
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Mike Mayock's fourth edition of his position-by-position prospect rankings for the 2014 NFL Draft:

Quote:
Quarterback
1. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
2. Blake Bortles, Central Florida
3. Derek Carr, Fresno State
4. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
T-5. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
T-5. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

New entry: Mettenberger
Rise: Carr (4), Garoppolo (T-5)
Fall: Bridgewater (3)
Out: AJ McCarron, Alabama (T-5)

Running back
1. Bishop Sankey, Washington
2. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
3. Jeremy Hill, LSU
4. Tre Mason, Auburn
5. Andre Williams, Boston College

Wide receiver
1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson
2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M
3. Odell Beckham Jr., LSU
4. Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
T-5. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State
T-5. Marqise Lee, USC

Rise: Beckham Jr. (T-5)
Fall: Lee (3)
Out: Jarvis Landry, LSU (T-5)

Tight end
1. Eric Ebron, North Carolina
2. Jace Amaro, Texas Tech
3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
4. Troy Niklas, Notre Dame
5. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa

Rise: Amaro (3)
Fall: Seferian-Jenkins (2)

Center
1. Marcus Martin, USC
2. Weston Richburg, Colorado State
3. Travis Swanson, Arkansas
4. Bryan Stork, Florida State
5. Gabe Ikard, Oklahoma

Guard
1. Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
2. David Yankey, Stanford
3. Trai Turner, LSU
4. Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State
5. Chris Watt, Notre Dame

New entry: Watt
Rise: Su'a-Filo (2), Turner (4), Jackson (5)
Fall: Yankey (1)
Out: Brandon Thomas (injury), Clemson (3)

Offensive tackle
1. Greg Robinson, Auburn
2. Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
3. Taylor Lewan, Michigan
4. Zack Martin, Notre Dame
T-5. Joel Bitonio, Nevada
T-5. Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama

New entry: Kouandjio

Defensive tackle
1. Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh
2. Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota
3. Timmy Jernigan, Florida State
4. Louis Nix, Notre Dame
5. Dominique Easley, Florida

New entry: Easley
Rise: Hageman (4)
Fall: Jernigan (2), Nix (3)
Out: Daniel McCullers, Tennessee (5)

Defensive end
1. Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
2. Kony Ealy, Missouri
3. Dee Ford, Auburn
4. Scott Crichton, Oregon State
5. Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame

Outside linebacker
1. Khalil Mack, Buffalo
2. Anthony Barr, UCLA
3. Ryan Shazier, Ohio State
4. Demarcus Lawrence, Boise St.
5. Kyle Van Noy, BYU

New entry: Lawrence, Van Noy
Out: Trent Murphy, Stanford (4); Marcus Smith, Louisville (5)

Inside linebacker
1. C.J. Mosley, Alabama
2. Chris Borland, Wisconsin
3. Preston Brown, Louisville
4. Max Bullough, Michigan State
5. Shayne Skov, Stanford

Rise: Brown (5)
Fall: Skov (3)

Cornerback
1. Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech
2. Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State
3. Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State
4. Bradley Roby, Ohio State
5. Jason Verrett, TCU

Rise: Fuller (2)
Fall: Dennard (1)

Safety
1. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama
2. Calvin Pryor, Louisville
3. Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois
4. Deone Bucannon, Washington State
5. Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State
How do players "tie"... ?
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Old 04-28-2014   #51
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

There is a guy named Watt in this draft?

We should get him. Worked ok the last time
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Old 04-28-2014   #52
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

I've been a big Mayock guy for quite a while, but I can admit, his in depth scouting has dropped off significantly this year. Maybe it's due to doing more NFL games this past season? I'm not sure.

That said, I'll still be watching he and the rest of the NFLN crew on draft day. Watching espn and their two draft "experts" is liken to scrapping fingernails on a chalkboard. I'm not sure I'd watch the draft if NFLN wasn't around.
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Old 04-28-2014   #53
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by DX-TEX View Post
There is a guy named Watt in this draft?

We should get him. Worked ok the last time
He kinda sucked until he got better today. Nobody really saw him much, being at Notre Dame.
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Old 04-28-2014   #54
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

3/3
Quote:
quarterback
1. Teddy bridgewater, louisville
2. Johnny manziel, texas a&m
3. Blake bortles, central florida
4. Derek carr, fresno state
t5. Aj mccarron, alabama
t5. Jimmy garoppolo, eastern illinois
4/28
Quote:
quarterback
1. Johnny manziel, texas a&m
2. Blake bortles, central florida
3. Derek carr, fresno state
4. Jimmy garoppolo, eastern illinois
t-5. Zach mettenberger, lsu
t-5. Teddy bridgewater, louisville
Once again, Mayock may be a pundit, but he's no scout.

Teddy didn't suddenly get worse. Mayock is regurgitating a composite of OTHER opinions (wherever they may come from) and selling it as his own evaluation. That's not an evaluation, it's called averaging.
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Old 04-28-2014   #55
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by disaacks3 View Post
3/3


4/28


Once again, Mayock may be a pundit, but he's no scout.

Teddy didn't suddenly get worse. Mayock is regurgitating a composite of OTHER opinions (wherever they may come from) and selling it as his own evaluation. That's not an evaluation, it's called averaging.
This gets back to my whole issue of what these guys are supposed to be reporting.

Are they supposed to come up with a draft board that reflects their grades on how good they think players are... divorced from scheme?

Are they supposed to come up with 32 draft boards so they can figure out which players are going to go where?

Are they supposed to be telling us which teams appear to like which players so they can figure out where those players are going to go?

Are they supposed to be telling us which players they like for which teams?

Each one of those things is a totally and completely different thing requiring entirely different information. AND, I don't think any team actually has their own board set into stone at this point, so trying to determine what a particular team's board looks like is doomed to failure. And if a particular team is still figuring out their boards with all the people they have available, all the eyes they have looking at this, all the money they're pouring into it, can we really blame a guy who's got a much smaller staff working on it for changing his mind and not being all things to all people?
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Old 04-28-2014   #56
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

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Originally Posted by disaacks3 View Post
3/3


4/28


Once again, Mayock may be a pundit, but he's no scout.

Teddy didn't suddenly get worse. Mayock is regurgitating a composite of OTHER opinions (wherever they may come from) and selling it as his own evaluation. That's not an evaluation, it's called averaging.
Mayock sitting at the NFLN desk excused himself so he could go down on the field and witness up close and personal Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel first hand. He personally eye balled each and every one of them. When the workout was over he came back on the air and gave his opinion of each of the players performance. I don't think that falls under regurgitating others opinions. As for Mayock he grew up a coaches son, played at Boston College and played professionally for 3 years. He's been doing this his whole life.
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Old 04-28-2014   #57
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

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Mayock sitting at the NFLN desk excused himself so he could go down on the field and witness up close and personal Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel first hand. He personally eye balled each and every one of them. When the workout was over he came back on the air and gave his opinion of each of the players performance. I don't think that falls under regurgitating others opinions. As for Mayock he grew up a coaches son, played at Boston College and played professionally for 3 years. He's been doing this his whole life.
So, what was that opinion based off of on 3/3? Oh that's right, he hasn't even watched 4 games worth of tape on the kid by his own admission.

He was telling the world how Teddy's Pro Day had gone...while it was going on behind him!

There was a time when what Mayock said might have been worth something, that time has passed. What Mayock may have ONCE been, he is no more. His day job these days is a talking head I take only slightly more seriously than Kiper.

Face it, it's no longer HIS board, it's a running averaged tally of what he's hearing from others.
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Old 04-29-2014   #58
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

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So, what was that opinion based off of on 3/3? Oh that's right, he hasn't even watched 4 games worth of tape on the kid by his own admission.

He was telling the world how Teddy's Pro Day had gone...while it was going on behind him!

There was a time when what Mayock said might have been worth something, that time has passed. What Mayock may have ONCE been, he is no more. His day job these days is a talking head I take only slightly more seriously than Kiper.

Face it, it's no longer HIS board, it's a running averaged tally of what he's hearing from others.

Negative Ghost Rider!

FYI - most coaches and scouts only watch 3-4 games of a players top competition. Contrary to popular belief they don't watch every game of a players college and high school career. It's physically impossible to do such a task on 500 players. You can do the math.
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Old 04-29-2014   #59
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

I like to watch a player's two best games and two worst games so four games isn't crazy to me.

What I don't like about Mayock is that he says that game tape is 85% of the process and combines and pro days are the other 15%, but then he absolutely kills a guy for being great at the 85% and bad at the 15%.

I don't care if he likes Bridgewater or not. But don't make a statement like that and then totally contradict it with your "rankings".
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Old 04-29-2014   #60
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Default Re: Mike Mayock 2014 NFL Draft

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I like to watch a player's two best games and two worst games so four games isn't crazy to me.

What I don't like about Mayock is that he says that game tape is 85% of the process and combines and pro days are the other 15%, but then he absolutely kills a guy for being great at the 85% and bad at the 15%.

I don't care if he likes Bridgewater or not. But don't make a statement like that and then totally contradict it with your "rankings".
Sometimes that 15% can be THE difference maker. That's why they have a Combine and Pro days. In TB's case the Pro Day confirmed and verified many of the questions a number of folks said they had from watching TB games and tape. Completely understandable for many, for those in love with Teddy, not so much.
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