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Old 04-07-2014   #21
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I still doubt they have a solid idea about how the draft will unfold. Whatever they think now, will probably change after this week, when they get a better look at the players we have.

I guarantee you Rick has been selling his team to OB from day one. "Wait 'till you see this guy, do this, or that." or "You're going to be really impressed with, blah, blah, blah..."

As far as the QB thing goes, if I'm OB, I'm asking myself two questions.
  1. Can I win with this guy?
    This goes back to the list of things OB said he is looking for in a QB. I think all but maybe four guys would fit.
  2. Can I win this year with this guy?
    I think five guys in this years draft answers yes here.


From what I've heard about the draft I feel pretty good that at least two of the guys that answer yes to both questions will be there at the top of the second (which is basically a first round pick)...... it would be hard for me to draft a QB at the top of the draft just because "everybody" is talking about three of them.
Oh I think they do now, I think they've certainly got their collective mind set on what they want to do with their top pick. You know what you want to do don't you thunderkyss, what you want the Texans to do with their 1.1 right, so I'm sure they have their plan at this point.
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Old 04-07-2014   #22
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I still doubt they have a solid idea about how the draft will unfold. Whatever they think now, will probably change after this week, when they get a better look at the players we have.

I guarantee you Rick has been selling his team to OB from day one. "Wait 'till you see this guy, do this, or that." or "You're going to be really impressed with, blah, blah, blah..."

don't believe that at all b/c i dont think that's how rick operates. Rick is probably deferring to OB alot not only b/c that seems to be how he did it with Kubiak, but b/c he's next in line to be fired if they can't make something happen in the next couple of years.

As far as the QB thing goes, if I'm OB, I'm asking myself two questions.
  1. Can I win with this guy?
    This goes back to the list of things OB said he is looking for in a QB. I think all but maybe four guys would fit.
  2. Can I win this year with this guy?
    I think five guys in this years draft answers yes here.

I'm sure he is asking himself the 1st question...doubt it about the 2nd question though b/c i don't think he realistically thinks he can win this year with this team as it is currently constructed. I'm basing this largely on the Fitzpatrick signing & the key releases we've had so far. If we wind up trading out of 1:1 with the Bills or whomever, that will confirm it in my mind.

From what I've heard about the draft I feel pretty good that at least two of the guys that answer yes to both questions will be there at the top of the second (which is basically a first round pick)...... it would be hard for me to draft a QB at the top of the draft just because "everybody" is talking about three of them.
Also, i don't think its so much as that people are talking about them as it is there not being that much of a difference between the 1st 3 and the next 2.
I don't necessarily agree, but then i'm a proponent of sitting your qb of the future for at least a year regardless...unless that qb of the future is Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck.
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Old 04-07-2014   #23
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by Stemp View Post
His can you be set on one specific 2nd rounder when you have no idea if that guy will get picked before your turn??
Everyone has pretty firm expectations about where certain guys are going to be drafted based on the needs of the teams drafting and the players available. All of these smokescreens and mirrors during the lead-up to the draft is teams' way of trying to throw the other teams off so they can get the guys they want when they want them.

So, heading into the draft, the Texans are going in with the guy they want at #1, then the list of guys they want at #2, then the list of guys they want at #3, etc. If they get the impression that the guy they want at a particular point isn't going to be there, then they'll trade up to make sure they get him.

So you target the guys you want in each round.

If you want a Garoppolo, you can be pretty sure he's going to be available in the 2nd round. There aren't that many teams drafting QBs and the ones that are are probably not going after Garoppolo in the first.

OTOH, we shouldn't be so sure this is Garoppolo. It could be Savage or Murray or McCarron (TK will be impossible to be around if that's the case) or Mettenberger or Boyd or... lots of different guys. And you can get those guys in the 3rd or 4th rounds if not later.
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Old 04-07-2014   #24
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
I think generally it is called a "reach."
I hate that term.

A "reach" is defined by drafting a guy way earlier than you need to.

Who determines whether someone is a reach? The media who's been creating mocks based on where they think guys should go and who should draft them.

The problem with this is that the Media doesn't know how each team's got their board constructed and where players are on those boards. To be able to call someone a reach, you have to know that they're not going to be drafted until 1+ rounds later. And there's no way to know that.

Just look at the CBS draft board vs. Walter Football's board. Walter Football has some guys ranked in the 3rd round that CBS Draft Board has in the 7th round or an UDFA.

All it takes if for a team to like a guy and decide they can't wait any more to take him. At that point, he's not a reach.
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Old 04-07-2014   #25
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
I don't agree, I think they finished their in-house evaluation of current players a month or more ago...
They did.
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Old 04-07-2014   #26
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
I hate that term.

A "reach" is defined by drafting a guy way earlier than you need to.

Who determines whether someone is a reach? The media who's been creating mocks based on where they think guys should go and who should draft them.

The problem with this is that the Media doesn't know how each team's got their board constructed and where players are on those boards. To be able to call someone a reach, you have to know that they're not going to be drafted until 1+ rounds later. And there's no way to know that.

Just look at the CBS draft board vs. Walter Football's board. Walter Football has some guys ranked in the 3rd round that CBS Draft Board has in the 7th round or an UDFA.

All it takes if for a team to like a guy and decide they can't wait any more to take him. At that point, he's not a reach.
I was just being a smartace there...

Overall, fans and draftniks think that their speculation about the event is more important than the event itself. By the strictest definition the event (the draft) is cannot be wrong. There is no real reach or person who fell far or was drafted too early. Where the player is or is not drafted is the actual fact. What we do for 6 months is various level guessing from wild ass to fairly educated, but they are all guesses that normally prove wrong usually by pick 5 overall.
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Old 04-07-2014   #27
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Agreed. But for some reason it is acceptable to many who find reaching in the 1st unacceptable.
Depends on comparable talent available at each spot. None of these QB's are worth reaching for when compared to the other talent available at the top. Now in the second round that's a different story.
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Old 04-07-2014   #28
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
I was just being a smartace there...

Overall, fans and draftniks think that their speculation about the event is more important than the event itself. By the strictest definition the event (the draft) is cannot be wrong. There is no real reach or person who fell far or was drafted too early. Where the player is or is not drafted is the actual fact. What we do for 6 months is various level guessing from wild ass to fairly educated, but they are all guesses that normally prove wrong usually by pick 5 overall.
Exactly, Mr. Smartace.
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Old 04-07-2014   #29
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
I hate that term.

A "reach" is defined by drafting a guy way earlier than you need to.

Who determines whether someone is a reach? The media who's been creating mocks based on where they think guys should go and who should draft them.

The problem with this is that the Media doesn't know how each team's got their board constructed and where players are on those boards. To be able to call someone a reach, you have to know that they're not going to be drafted until 1+ rounds later. And there's no way to know that.

Just look at the CBS draft board vs. Walter Football's board. Walter Football has some guys ranked in the 3rd round that CBS Draft Board has in the 7th round or an UDFA.

All it takes if for a team to like a guy and decide they can't wait any more to take him. At that point, he's not a reach.
I wholeheartedly agree with you.
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Old 04-07-2014   #30
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
I was just being a smartace there...

Overall, fans and draftniks think that their speculation about the event is more important than the event itself. By the strictest definition the event (the draft) is cannot be wrong. There is no real reach or person who fell far or was drafted too early. Where the player is or is not drafted is the actual fact. What we do for 6 months is various level guessing from wild ass to fairly educated, but they are all guesses that normally prove wrong usually by pick 5 overall.
Mine usually prove wrong by pick 1.
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Old 04-07-2014   #31
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
Now in the second round that's a different story.
Looks like the same story with a rationalization added to me.

For the record I am not hung up on "reaching" especially for a QB. In most drafts there are only 1-2 QBs who will turn out to be solid starters. If a team thinks they have identified one then draftniks be damned you do what is necessary to get that guy rather than settling for a different QB "in the same talent group" because they would be a "better value."
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Old 04-07-2014   #32
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Looks like the same story with a rationalization added to me.

For the record I am not hung up on "reaching" especially for a QB. In most drafts there are only 1-2 QBs who will turn out to be solid starters. If a team thinks they have identified one then draftniks be damned you do what is necessary to get that guy rather than settling for a different QB "in the same talent group" because they would be a "better value."
Yep and that same mentality has cost many gms their jobs. This "you have to take QB with the first pick because it's such an important position" is crap. If there isn't one good enough then there isn't one good enough. All you are doing by trying to force it is
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Old 04-07-2014   #33
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
Oh I think they do now, I think they've certainly got their collective mind set on what they want to do with their top pick. You know what you want to do don't you thunderkyss, what you want the Texans to do with their 1.1 right, so I'm sure they have their plan at this point.
I've been watching these guys for years. OB hasn't. & I've been as close to them as I'll ever be. I'd think he would want to see them in person, talk to them himself, before he makes up his mind. I know I would.

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Originally Posted by Mr teX View Post
Quote:
As far as the QB thing goes, if I'm OB, I'm asking myself two questions.
Can I win with this guy?
This goes back to the list of things OB said he is looking for in a QB. I think all but maybe four guys would fit.
Can I win this year with this guy?
I think five guys in this years draft answers yes here.
I'm sure he is asking himself the 1st question...doubt it about the 2nd question though b/c i don't think he realistically thinks he can win this year with this team as it is currently constructed. I'm basing this largely on the Fitzpatrick signing & the key releases we've had so far. If we wind up trading out of 1:1 with the Bills or whomever, that will confirm it in my mind.
The question isn't about the teams expectations, it's more about how far is he from being the guy he needs to be to start. Do I believe he's smart enough to pick up on our process quickly. Do I need tear down his mechanics & build them back up....

It's like if I want to make a blue car, molded out of clay. Do I have regular brown clay, or do I have yellow clay, green clay, or blue clay.... regardless which one I pick, it's not ready, it's still not a car. But I'm a lot closer if I pick the blue clay.
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Old 04-07-2014   #34
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
Yep and that same mentality has cost many gms their jobs. This "you have to take QB with the first pick because it's such an important position" is crap. If there isn't one good enough then there isn't one good enough. All you are doing by trying to force it is
I said nothing about which pick. Since you can't understand what I wrote it casts doubt on your understanding my mentality much less that of gms.
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Old 04-07-2014   #35
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
In most drafts there are only 1-2 QBs who will turn out to be solid starters. If a team thinks they have identified one then draftniks be damned you do what is necessary to get that guy rather than settling for a different QB "in the same talent group" because they would be a "better value."
Nice job leaving off 95% of the reason.

In a draft like this, I think it would be foolish for any team to believe they have successfully identified the one or two QBs that will become a solid starter. I believe like OB said, there isn't a whole lot of separation between them. We've got guys who've consistently produced in big conferences, played well in big games, demonstrated the ability to make good decisions, manage a football game from the LOS, showed remarkable poise, have prototypical height, played for three years or more, made plays off schedule, rallied their teams from behind, been that rock the team can rely on..... but not all in the same guy.

They've all got a good mix of those qualities, some really strong in certain areas, weak in others, but an overall solid mix. Aaron Murray, who many people believe will be available in the 3rd round, some think 4th, has every bit as good a chance to be a solid starting QB in this league as Blake Bortles, or Derek Carr, both projected to be 1st round picks.

Now I do believe there is one guy who is head & shoulders above the rest, but nobody wants to talk about that, but I think we can all agree it would be awkward if we selected him with the #1 overall pick.

It's possible that OB feels the same way about Tom Savage, or Connor Shaw.

And you're leaving off the part about taking a player with the early pick who there is no comparison for in the later rounds, like Clowney, Robinson, Mack, or Watkins. Good players of better "value" maybe (for a RT per se)... but not the same caliber athlete. Not even close.
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Old 04-07-2014   #36
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I said nothing about which pick. Since you can't understand what I wrote it casts doubt on your understanding my mentality much less that of gms.
Do you believe the Texans should take a QB 1-1 and if so who?
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Old 04-07-2014   #37
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Default Re: McClain rumor

I think it would be a bold move but I would not mind seeing the Texans take Manziel at 1-1. The other two QBs I definitely believe are reaches at that spot, and Manziel could end up being the same way, but I believe he has the most potential to take the team where we want to go from the QB standpoint than any prospect we've had a chance at in a long time. I'm not going to be devastated if we took an overall more dynamic player like a Clowney/Mack/Watkins/Robinson, but I think Manziel would be the only QB worth the risk at 1-1.

You don't want to screw the first overall pick up, and it could end up costing you your job, but I think that holds true whether you take a QB or not.
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Old 04-07-2014   #38
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Nice job leaving off 95% of the reason.

And you're leaving off the part about taking a player with the early pick who there is no comparison for in the later rounds, like Clowney, Robinson, Mack, or Watkins. Good players of better "value" maybe (for a RT per se)... but not the same caliber athlete. Not even close.
I didn't leave off jack and you're being a troll now. I explained my reasoning on QBs. That is independent of how anyone else does it.

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
Do you believe the Texans should take a QB 1-1 and if so who?
I stake no claim to QB expertise so I am not wedded to any specific QBs in the draft or at any particular point. The top 3 all have different warts to me, but they all look worthy of consideration so I won't be upset if any of them are taken in the 1st. I am not big on late round (after the 3rd) QBs as anything more than backups. I like what I have seen from Murray and just slightly less Garoppalo - won't be upset if either of them is taken. Don't particularly like Metz and dislike McCarron. But my attitude on picking QBs is wholly dependent on the HC/GM in that order. If he thinks any of them is one of the 1-2 QBs who will end up being solid starters from this draft then take him where you have to and you won't hear me beotching about it. If he doesn't, I would rather see them pass than just take one to take one.

This is where I put one of your higher standards on the HC/GM. I expect them to have an opinion on who those 1-2 will be and not just go with the draftnik attitude of "well these three are close and then there are four close who may be available in the 2nd so let's picked from who is left at 2.1." Call your shot and you're using a bullet not a hand grenade.
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Old 04-07-2014   #39
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I didn't leave off jack and you're being a troll now. I explained my reasoning on QBs. That is independent of how anyone else does it.
I tend to have narcissistic tendencies.
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Old 04-07-2014   #40
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Default Re: McClain rumor

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I said nothing about which pick.
Oh forgive me. I assumed when you said and I quote "In most drafts there are only 1-2 QBs who will turn out to be solid starters." that out of the whole draft if there were only 1 or 2 solid starting QB's, They would be early first round picks.

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Since you can't understand what I wrote it casts doubt on your understanding my mentality much less that of gms.
Maybe your ability to explain is the problem.
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