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Old 02-16-2014   #121
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by Dishman View Post
But you think Brady is frail, right? You said, "...one particular frail QB happens to be one of the GOATs."

I'm trying to understand your definition of frail here because it sounds like your standard is quite high. Tom Brady has played all 16 games in 11 of 14 seasons and 15 games in one of those other 3. That something like 193 games played and 33 missed, which sounds fairly durable.
But Tom Brady is not 6'4" 211 & hasn't been for the last 14 seasons. He was when he was drafted & that among other reasons was why he fell to the 6th round.
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Old 02-16-2014   #122
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post


Funny, you seem not to be aware of that when talking about Russell Wilson.
I'm sorry, I don't follow.
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Old 02-16-2014   #123
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Defensive ends
Quote:
1. *Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
2. *Kony Ealy, Missouri
3. *Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame
4. *Scott Crichton, Oregon State
5. Chris Smith, Arkansas
6. *Demarcus Lawrence, Boise State
7. Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas
8. Kareem Martin, North Carolina
9. *Jeoffrey Pagan, Alabama
10. Marcus Smith, Louisville

Clowney, Ealy, Tuitt.... I'm not saying these guys are the same, but there's a big drop off after these three. These three will go in the first round. Two of them maybe in the top ten. Personally, I don't believe you're going to get anything comparable in the second round.

QB on the other hand... Whether you like Bridgewater, Manziel, or Bortles, you can find a comparable prospect in the second, or even later, rounds.
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Old 02-17-2014   #124
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
QB on the other hand... Whether you like Bridgewater, Manziel, or Bortles, you can find a comparable prospect in the second, or even later, rounds.
People say this every year, and almost every year this doesn't happen. Literally EVERY SINGLE YEAR people in these message boards pull out their Brett Smith's from Wyoming or Matthews from Cornell and EVERY SINGLE YEAR those guys do nothing, those posters deny they said it, and the players fade into obscurity.

I know, I've been the guy touting the goose that lays golden eggs from Nowheresville, Antartica. I soon realized I was over thinking the simple stuff and I stopped.

There will always be a Tom Brady, a Tony Romo, or a Russell Wilson and this is what most hang their hats on, but they forget about all of the other late round failures. Here, take a look, there are a LOT. (Take note of what the Panthers did in 2010 and how they rectified that in 2011)

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...B-1980-now.htm

Then when you look at those bajillion guys, look at this list and take note of where most of these top guys were drafted:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/pl...3/seasontype/2

Oh yeah, and if Drew Brees was drafted today, he would be a 1st round pick (1-32).
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Old 02-17-2014   #125
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
Are you talking about the teams or are you talking about the fans?

That's a ton of information.

To have you decisions about who you're going to go after already made this early into the process would be hasty, imo. You should have ideas about guys you want to watch and you should have ideas about what you should expect, but you shouldn't have come close to making any decisions, yet.
Not gonna quote your whole thing cause it's long.

I'm talking about both. They go hand in hand to an extent.

It is a ton of information, but we are talking about scouts here. They are not computer guys 5 days a week then message board warriors on the weekends. It is their main job and prime directive to know these players going INTO the season, THROUGH the season, and AFTER the season.

After the season ends, me, 5 day computer guy and message board warrior on the weekends has an idea of the guys I like and want. Then I see how our draft picks shake out, where I thought we needed work the most, and the availability of players. This list moves and shakes with the more I find out and obviously underclassmen declaring and abstract players from Wyoming or Cornell being brought to my attention.

But for the most part, you aren't seeing crazy swings from me and I don't believe you should from teams either. When you see this happening in a positive way for the player you generally overdraft players like Stephen Hill or you get teams like Al Davis used to own.
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Old 02-17-2014   #126
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by TexansFTW View Post

There will always be a Tom Brady, a Tony Romo, or a Russell Wilson and this is what most hang their hats on, but they forget about all of the other late round failures. Here, take a look, there are a LOT. (Take note of what the Panthers did in 2010 and how they rectified that in 2011)

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...B-1980-now.htm

Then when you look at those bajillion guys, look at this list and take note of where most of these top guys were drafted:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/pl...3/seasontype/2

Oh yeah, and if Drew Brees was drafted today, he would be a 1st round pick (1-32).
Well there were a bunch of first rounders that didn't make that second list.

I'm not in the, "You can find a guy in the third, look at Russell Wilson... or undrafted, Romo... or in the 6th, Brady" crowd. If we end up having to start Tj Yates, then yeah I'm that guy. Or if they decide to start Case Keenum, I'll be that guy.

Now, before the draft I'm the, "There are six first round QBs in this draft, I think 4 QBs will be drafted in the first, 1 of those won't be 1st round talent, leaving 3 QBs I believe are first rounders on the board. & I have the 1st pick in the second round."

Oh yeah, Matt Scaub (3rd round) appeared on that second list more times than not.
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Old 02-17-2014   #127
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Well there were a bunch of first rounders that didn't make that second list.

Oh yeah, Matt Scaub (3rd round) appeared on that second list more times than not.
1. And a bunch that did.

2. 7 years. Amount of years wasted trying to force a guy to become more than he was. I'm not gonna sit here and deny that he was great, you heard me, great, for a few of those years, but at the end of the day we wasted 7 years and several Super Bowl winning QBs in the draft waiting for him to be more than he was.
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Old 02-17-2014   #128
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by TexansFTW View Post
2. 7 years. Amount of years wasted trying to force a guy to become more than he was. I'm not gonna sit here and deny that he was great, you heard me, great, for a few of those years, but at the end of the day we wasted 7 years and several Super Bowl winning QBs in the draft waiting for him to be more than he was.
With hindsight, if you had the #1 pick in the 2010 draft, who would you take?
  • Sam Bradford
  • Tim Tebow
  • Jimmy Clausen
  • Colt McCoy

Did taking Tim Tebow in the first round increase his chances for success? He was not a first round QB. Just because Denver took him in the first, did not change that.

Sam Bradford... was he a first round QB? I think so. Even though he played on a very talented Oklahoma team. Even though he had an injury riddled Junior year. But not #1 overall & taking him #1 overall did not change his chances of success.

That's what we're dealing with here. The closer we get to the draft it appears more "scouts" & NFL people are saying the same thing. A month ago Bridgewater was considered the 3rd best player in the draft, I'm seeing boards now where he's the 10th best.

If we pick up Cassel, or Mallet, I guarantee you he'll drop out of the top 10. It shouldn't have anything to do with it, Jacksonville should be in the market for a QB, but they're saying they are leaning towards DE. Cleveland might be looking for a QB, but everyone has them taking Manziel.

If you use the same criteria that you've always used to evaluate QBs for the draft, which include height, weight, arm strength, accuracy, pro offense, level of competition, stats, mechanics, etc... he doesn't "grade" out to be a #1 overall QB... not a top 5 NFL prospect. We have to ignore a lot, rationalize a lot to justify taking him #1 overall & that should be a big red flag.

Every time you say, "Yeah, but...." something's wrong. 1 or 2, ok. But 3 or 4... watch out. You're trying to make this guy something he's not & are liable to waste another 7 years to "figure out" he's not.
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Old 02-17-2014   #129
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

By the same standard of measurements neither Drew Brees nor Aaron Rodgers would grade out as Number 1 picks, yet if you had do overs on their drafts they would probably go #1. In the end if you believe it is the best decision with the largest expected value in return you make it, historical perspective doesn't always lead to the correct thinking in each case, just more often then not.


Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
With hindsight, if you had the #1 pick in the 2010 draft, who would you take?
  • Sam Bradford
  • Tim Tebow
  • Jimmy Clausen
  • Colt McCoy

Did taking Tim Tebow in the first round increase his chances for success? He was not a first round QB. Just because Denver took him in the first, did not change that.

Sam Bradford... was he a first round QB? I think so. Even though he played on a very talented Oklahoma team. Even though he had an injury riddled Junior year. But not #1 overall & taking him #1 overall did not change his chances of success.

That's what we're dealing with here. The closer we get to the draft it appears more "scouts" & NFL people are saying the same thing. A month ago Bridgewater was considered the 3rd best player in the draft, I'm seeing boards now where he's the 10th best.

If we pick up Cassel, or Mallet, I guarantee you he'll drop out of the top 10. It shouldn't have anything to do with it, Jacksonville should be in the market for a QB, but they're saying they are leaning towards DE. Cleveland might be looking for a QB, but everyone has them taking Manziel.

If you use the same criteria that you've always used to evaluate QBs for the draft, which include height, weight, arm strength, accuracy, pro offense, level of competition, stats, mechanics, etc... he doesn't "grade" out to be a #1 overall QB... not a top 5 NFL prospect. We have to ignore a lot, rationalize a lot to justify taking him #1 overall & that should be a big red flag.

Every time you say, "Yeah, but...." something's wrong. 1 or 2, ok. But 3 or 4... watch out. You're trying to make this guy something he's not & are liable to waste another 7 years to "figure out" he's not.
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Old 02-17-2014   #130
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
But Tom Brady is not 6'4" 211 & hasn't been for the last 14 seasons.
And you referred to him as frail, but hes really not, so its difficult to see what your point is here. Just like any other "frail" QB entering the league, Brady had a chance to improve himself with an NFL-level S&C program. He took advantage of that just like all QB prospects will have the opportunity to do once they are drafted.

You talk in circles which makes understanding your position on a subject quite difficult.
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Old 02-19-2014   #131
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

Kiper: Five big questions for teams entering the combine
Quote:
1. Could Houston's plans change with a great workout from Jadeveon Clowney or Greg Robinson? Maybe. I don't think it'll change their priorities, but it could help them shift demand. The best thing that can happen for Houston is for all the top players to have amazing workouts. Clowney and Robinson are No. 1 and No. 2 on my Big Board, respectively, not just because they are great players, but because I already know they are great athletes. Same for many teams. But if the workouts serve to do more, and if teams find them even more attractive as prospects coming out of Indy, Houston has greater trade leverage. The better everyone looks, the better it is to hold the No. 1 pick.

2. Any reason to think the Rams are looking at a QB at No. 2? No. The Rams need to take another step forward in 2014 given the personnel they have -- they have a lot of good players -- and there's no reason to believe a rookie starter at QB gives them a better chance in the NFC West than Sam Bradford, regardless of Bradford's up-and-down career so far. General manager Les Snead is likelier to trade the pick to someone who covets a QB than draft one himself in that slot.

3. Are the Jaguars trying to decide on a QB at No. 3? I'll put it this way: I think they're taking a really good look at this QB class. I think they'll do a lot of work on Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater and decide if one or more of those can be a good long-range solution. That said, I think they'll do work on a number of QBs in this class, and it's still 50/50 if they draft their new QB at No. 3, because the new front office has shown me they want to take great football players, and I don't think they'll draft a QB if they have many players rated higher.

4. Should the Browns trade up in order to get their franchise QB? No. I realize that Cleveland needs a QB they feel they can build around, but I don't think you trade up from that high of a draft slot unless you have a certain upgrade at the position for the immediate future. This draft doesn't offer that promise.

5. Will the Raiders have the chance to take one of the top three QBs? If I had to bet, then yes, I think they will have the chance. But the Raiders are a team that should look to trade down, too. Just because a QB is there doesn't mean they draft one. They have needs all over the place.
Top five questions for players entering the combine
Quote:
1. Will Clowney make himself irresistible at No. 1 by his combine workout? No. He is worthy of No. 1, but his great athletic traits are well known. Houston should hope someone else sees him as irresistible at No. 1, and offers them the moon to take him there. (Houston may prefer just to take him, of course.)

2. Do you really care that much about Mike Evans' 40 time? Yes. I had a friend in one front office tell me he feels Evans has the best ball skills he's seen in 20 years. I won't go that far, but If Evans shows off mid-4.4 speed, we'll have teams debating the top wide receiver in this draft between him and Watkins.

3. Which player could go from second-round status to the first round with a strong Combine workout? I'll give you three. Jarvis Landry, WR from LSU; Kelcy Quarles, DT/DE from South Carolina; Dee Ford, edge rusher from Auburn. There could be more, but those come to mind.

4. Your pick for biggest combine freak overall? I'll give you two. On offense, I think UNC tight end Eric Ebron could be a size/speed freak. On defense, I'll go with Khalil Mack.

5. Does Aaron Murray or Zach Mettenberger have a better chance to be an NFL starter? Mettenberger. When they are both healthy, Mettenberger simply has the superior arm, and despite less experience, is Murray's equal or better when it comes to anticipation, ball placement and polish.
Top five workout questions entering the Combine
Quote:
1. Which measurement has become more important? Hand size for QBs. We're past the age of the "prototype" QB who has to be a certain height and weight. Many value other traits just as much, particularly athleticism. But you have to be able to grip the ball and drive it down the field either in the pocket or on the move, and hand size matters in that regard. You don't have to be a giant, but there's a minimum threshold you have to meet.

2. 40-yard dash: Your pick to be the fastest player here? I like several of the picks Todd made above. Archer, from Kent State, can fly. Roby from Ohio State and Purifoy of Florida could be at or near the top among corners, and if Oregon's Thomas gets a great jump, watch out. A sleeper pick might be Baylor running back Lache Seastrunk.

3. QB passing drills: Do they matter? No. It's nice to see a kid compete, but if you're reading a lot into a QB throwing certain routes to unfamiliar targets in an unfamiliar setting, you're reading too closely.

4. What's a "hot" measurement right now? An accurate measurement. Seriously -- every year guys go up and down 20 pounds or grow or shrink an inch based on previous listings. I know a lot about players through watching the tape, and talking to coaches and other evaluators at all levels. But you don't have accurate measurements until the combine, so those are the No. 1 thing I take from this. It's nice to verify.

5. What workout at the combine will matter most to the QB class? Interviews. There isn't a near-perfect QB prospect in this class. Teams need to believe these quarterbacks will put in the time to make themselves great.
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Old 02-20-2014   #132
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

Are there people who really expect Evans to run under a 4.5?

He has great athleticism for his size but at 225 lbs I'm thinking he'll be right around 4.55, which is perfectly fine.
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Old 02-20-2014   #133
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Kiper: Five big questions for teams entering the combine

Top five questions for players entering the combine

Top five workout questions entering the Combine
I could not care less about anything Kiper says (yes, I know I'm in a Kiper thread. lol), but I think he and many others are putting way too much stock in the Combine.

It's been a while, but I once read a piece or a comment from a GM saying players rarely ever move UP their draft boards due to Combine performances. However, they could drop DOWN some due to medicals, interviews, etc. The drills do not mean a whole lot. It's merely a dog and pony show for the fans and media.

That is how I've felt about the Combine ever since hearing/reading that. There's weigh-ins, medicals and interviews. The rest is fluff
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Old 02-20-2014   #134
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
Are there people who really expect Evans to run under a 4.5?

He has great athleticism for his size but at 225 lbs I'm thinking he'll be right around 4.55, which is perfectly fine.
Charles Davis to believe Evans can run an electric 40-yard dash time...
Quote:
“I’ve been told — and we will see at the combine — that he could run a high 4.4 time. And if that’s the case, then game, set, match, off he goes.”
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Old 02-27-2014   #135
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

Kiper on Colin Cowherd this morning said, "Johnny Manziel is still the consensus #1 overall quarterback."
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Old 03-01-2014   #136
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

2/27 Big Board
Quote:
1Jadeveon Clowney *AGE: 21DOB: 2/14/93HT: 6-5WT: 266POS: DE

2Greg Robinson **AGE: 21DOB: 10/21/92HT: 6-5WT: 332POS: OT

3Khalil MackAGE: 22DOB: 2/22/91HT: 6-3WT: 251POS: OLB

4Sammy Watkins *AGE: 20DOB: 6/14/93HT: 6-1WT: 211POS: WR

5Jake MatthewsAGE: 22DOB: 2/11/92HT: 6-5WT: 308POS: OT

6Mike Evans **AGE: 20DOB: 8/21/93HT: 6-5WT: 231POS: WR

7Taylor LewanAGE: 22DOB: 7/21/91HT: 6-7WT: 309POS: OT

8Eric Ebron *AGE: 20DOB: 4/10/93HT: 6-4WT: 250POS: TE

9Anthony BarrAGE: 21DOB: 3/18/92HT: 6-5WT: 255POS: DE

10Teddy Bridgewater *AGE: 21DOB: 11/10/92HT: 6-2WT: 214POS: QB

11Blake Bortles *AGE: 22DOB: 12/16/91HT: 6-5WT: 232POS: QB

12Johnny Manziel **AGE: 21DOB: 12/6/92HT: 6-0WT: 207POS: QB

13C.J. MosleyAGE: 21DOB: 6/19/92HT: 6-2WT: 234POS: LB

14Justin GilbertAGE: 22DOB: 11/7/91HT: 6-0WT: 202POS: CB

15Marqise Lee *AGE: 22DOB: 11/25/91HT: 6-0WT: 192POS: WR

16Timmy Jernigan *AGE: 21DOB: 9/24/92HT: 6-2WT: 299POS: DT

17Brandin Cooks *AGE: 20DOB: 9/25/93HT: 5-10WT: 189POS: WR

18Darqueze DennardAGE: 22DOB: 10/10/91HT: 5-11WT: 199POS: CB

19Zack MartinAGE: 23DOB: 11/20/90HT: 6-4WT: 308POS: OT

20Odell Beckham Jr. *AGE: 21DOB: 11/5/92HT: 5-11WT: 198POS: WR

21Aaron DonaldAGE: 22DOB: 5/23/91HT: 6-1WT: 285POS: DT

It's hard to be hotter as a prospect than Donald is right now. He leads the country in tackles for loss, then goes to Mobile and is a star at the Senior Bowl working against very good competition, then he goes to Indy and runs 4.65 in the 40 at 285 pounds, and also throws in 35 reps in the bench press for good measure. And on the combine totals, the athleticism and power match up perfectly with how he played all year, with a blend of quickness and power to run through and around blocks, creating constant problems for offenses. Now, he's a likely mid-first-round pick.

22Louis Nix III *AGE: 22DOB: 7/31/91HT: 6-2WT: 331POS: DT


23Calvin Pryor *AGE: 21DOB: 7/2/92HT: 5-11WT: 207POS: S


24Ha Ha Clinton-Dix *AGE: 21DOB: 12/21/92HT: 6-1WT: 208POS: S


25Ryan Shazier *AGE: 21DOB: 9/6/92HT: 6-1WT: 237POS: OLB

Last edited by Playoffs; 03-01-2014 at 12:08 PM.
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Old 03-06-2014   #137
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

6/3 update
Quote:
1Jadeveon Clowney *AGE: 21DOB: 2/14/93HT: 6-5WT: 266POS: DE

2Greg Robinson **AGE: 21DOB: 10/21/92HT: 6-5WT: 332POS: OT

3Khalil MackAGE: 22DOB: 2/22/91HT: 6-3WT: 251POS: OLB

4Sammy Watkins *AGE: 20DOB: 6/14/93HT: 6-1WT: 211POS: WR

5Jake MatthewsAGE: 22DOB: 2/11/92HT: 6-5WT: 308POS: OT

6Mike Evans **AGE: 20DOB: 8/21/93HT: 6-5WT: 231POS: WR

7Taylor LewanAGE: 22DOB: 7/21/91HT: 6-7WT: 309POS: OT

8Eric Ebron *AGE: 20DOB: 4/10/93HT: 6-4WT: 250POS: TE

9Anthony BarrAGE: 21DOB: 3/18/92HT: 6-5WT: 255POS: DE

10Teddy Bridgewater *AGE: 21DOB: 11/10/92HT: 6-2WT: 214POS: QB

11Blake Bortles *AGE: 22DOB: 12/16/91HT: 6-5WT: 232POS: QB

12Johnny Manziel **AGE: 21DOB: 12/6/92HT: 6-0WT: 207POS: QB

13C.J. MosleyAGE: 21DOB: 6/19/92HT: 6-2WT: 234POS: LB

14Justin GilbertAGE: 22DOB: 11/7/91HT: 6-0WT: 202POS: CB

15Brandin Cooks *AGE: 20DOB: 9/25/93HT: 5-10WT: 189POS: WR

16Timmy Jernigan *AGE: 21DOB: 9/24/92HT: 6-2WT: 299POS: DT

17Odell Beckham Jr. *AGE: 21DOB: 11/5/92HT: 5-11WT: 198POS: WR

18Darqueze DennardAGE: 22DOB: 10/10/91HT: 5-11WT: 199POS: CB

19Zack MartinAGE: 23DOB: 11/20/90HT: 6-4WT: 308POS: OT

20Marqise Lee *AGE: 22DOB: 11/25/91HT: 6-0WT: 192POS: WR

21Aaron DonaldAGE: 22DOB: 5/23/91HT: 6-1WT: 285POS: DT

22Louis Nix III *AGE: 22DOB: 7/31/91HT: 6-2WT: 331POS: DT

23Calvin Pryor *AGE: 21DOB: 7/2/92HT: 5-11WT: 207POS: S

24Ha Ha Clinton-Dix *AGE: 21DOB: 12/21/92HT: 6-1WT: 208POS: S

25Ryan Shazier *AGE: 21DOB: 9/6/92HT: 6-1WT: 237POS: OLB
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Old 03-06-2014   #138
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

It's kind of unusual for me how he has all 3 QBs right next to each other. It's like he couldn't find a place to put them and just put them all in one spot.

Kiper is so dumb. I guess most of his wild swings are over until next week when he likely shoots Donald up about 10 picks. That should be the last one unless something weird happens.
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Old 03-06-2014   #139
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by TexansFTW View Post
It's kind of unusual for me how he has all 3 QBs right next to each other. It's like he couldn't find a place to put them and just put them all in one spot.
If you could put all three of them together you'd have a prototypical QB. Bridgewater's precision, Bortles' size, Manziel's ... I don't know what you call it. But he's got it.
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Old 03-06-2014   #140
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Default Re: Kiper 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Kiper on Colin Cowherd this morning said, "Johnny Manziel is still the consensus #1 overall quarterback."
10 Teddy Bridgewater *AGE: 21DOB: 11/10/92HT: 6-2WT: 214POS: QB

11 Blake Bortles *AGE: 22DOB: 12/16/91HT: 6-5WT: 232POS: QB

12 Johnny Manziel **AGE: 21DOB: 12/6/92HT: 6-0WT: 207POS: QB

...but... but... but, just last week you said....
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