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Old 02-25-2014   #2621
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
Good. After re-reading what I wrote I was afraid it came off as a harsh criticism and it wasn't intended that way.

And I think Wilson is overrated right now for what he is in the NFL. I think he still has potential to improve but he is not a top 10 QB right now. I'm not trying to claim that I predicted Super Bowls in his future.



Easy. I don't have Manziel rated as a high first round pick.
I don't understand. Don't you have Manziel as the #15 rated prospect on your big board? Wouldn't that be a high to mid round placement?
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Old 02-25-2014   #2622
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
I still wouldn't take Russell Wilson for a high 1st in this year's draft. If we are talking about draft value, what sort of pick would a QB desperate team give up for Wilson?

Would the Browns give up 4? Nope. 26? Maybe... 35? Much more likely.
Would Oakland give up 5? Don't think so. 37? Sure.
Texans 2-1 would be the most I think they would pay for it.
The Cardinals would probably give up their 1st for him, but partially because that would mean the Seahawks would need a new QB...

I really don't see Wilson as being worth a top 15 pick, even today. He's an excellent game manager, but you have to have a really good defense and running game to go with him. He can do alright with an average o-line due to his pocket presence and mobility, which allows the team to invest more heavily into other areas. That's a big positive, and as long as he stays cheap, he's well worth the investment.

I think it will be very telling in 2 years when Wilson's contract is up for negotiation. I really wonder if the Seahawks will look to draft a replacement for him this year or next, because I think his pricetag will far outweigh his value. If they have a cheap backup plan in place (like a Garrapolo, Murray, Smith, etc) I think they might just trade him or let him walk. He's going to want probably 12 million a year, and I don't think he will be worth it at that point.
I follow what you're saying, but can't agree. I don't agree with the game manager tag either. He's one step above game manager to me. Which is exactly where he should be his 2nd year into his career, on his way to being one of the best QBs in the league over the next 10 years. He's got as much upside as anyone in the draft plus play-off experience, plus conference championship experience, plus Super Bowl experience.

If Seattle would take our #1 overall pick & nothing else (heck, I'd throw in Derek Newton, Schaub, & Brice McCain) I'd probably throw a hip doing my happy dance.

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Old 02-25-2014   #2623
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Well put me down as thinking y'all in the Wilson is mediocre camp are dramatically underselling him. And I think your conjecture is totally wrong. There may be some teams who view Wilson as you do but I think the odds they all do and none would trade a top 10 pick for him are zilch. I think there is a 75% chance the Texans would trade 1.1 for him happily.

Wilson by the way has 8 4th quarter comebacks and 10 game winning drives in the past two seasons. He is not just riding a D.
Mediocre compared to the other QBs in the NFL as a whole, maybe. I don't think he's a top 10 QB, and I think he's more in the 11-15 range overall. That's slightly above average in a 32 QB league, so I guess you could call that mediocre. He was taken in the 3rd, so for what he is, that seems like a great value. I said he's worth about a late 1st to an early 2nd, which is certainly more than I would value guys like Alex Smith, Matt Schaub (even before 2013), Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill. There are currently only about 7-8 QBs I would pay 1.1 for.

Wilson is very conservative in the way he plays the game and makes decisions, and his ceiling doesn't seem that high to me. He's nowhere close to the elite QBs, but he's definitely better than the other game manager types currently out there. I don't see him putting the team on his back and taking them to the promised land. He can be an important cog in the machine, but he's not the primary reason they are winning games.

To add to that, the 10 GW drives and 4th quarter comebacks is just a stat. It doesn't tell the whole story, and any Texans fan who watched the Seattle game this year should know it wasn't Wilson winning that game for them. Who made the game tying TD to send it to OT? How many drives did the Seahawks have before they scored a FG to win the game?

Another one of the games you cite was the infamous "Simultaneous Catch" game against Green Bay. Several of those other games were Lynch TDs and Hauschka FGs. 2 of the games he didn't even have a TD, but he was the QB so he gets the credit. Details like that get overlooked when simply looking at stat lines.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2624
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
Actually it's quite the opposite for Griffin. I have been very open about not being on the RGIII hype train. Had many questions about him coming out and thought the Redskins were absolute idiots to trade three 1st round picks for him.

I straight up said he would be out of the league in 5 years and that it was a good thing they grabbed Cousins too so that he could take over for him. Without his legs, he is average.

Loved him in college, but just like Manziel, did not like the transition.
Ahhh, okay. I thought he was the most dynamic player in the league until the injury... different strokes.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2625
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
To add to that, the 10 GW drives and 4th quarter comebacks is just a stat. It doesn't tell the whole story, and any Texans fan who watched the Seattle game this year should know it wasn't Wilson winning that game for them. Who made the game tying TD to send it to OT? How many drives did the Seahawks have before they scored a FG to win the game?

Another one of the games you cite was the infamous "Simultaneous Catch" game against Green Bay. Several of those other games were Lynch TDs and Hauschka FGs. 2 of the games he didn't even have a TD, but he was the QB so he gets the credit. Details like that get overlooked when simply looking at stat lines.
Well I agree details sometimes get overlooked. I'd say putting the Texans v. Seahawks game all on Sherman is overlooking that they were in position to tie the game because Wilson took the offense on his shoulders and gashed the Texans with his legs in the 2nd half. Lynch getting the 3 yd TD and getting all the credit is missing just as many details.

Anyway, we can just agree to disagree. I see more than game manager in Wilson.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2626
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
Good read Playoffs, keep up the good work.

Everytime I think I'm out on Manziel I see something that keeps me interested.
Ditto.

When does it end??
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Old 02-25-2014   #2627
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Ahhh, okay. I thought he was the most dynamic player in the league until the injury... different strokes.
Extremely dynamic. However, he had an injury history before ever getting to the league and, with his style of play, I didn't see him lasting that long. If you take his legs away he goes from very good to average.
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Old 02-25-2014   #2628
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Well put me down as thinking y'all in the Wilson is mediocre camp are dramatically underselling him. And I think your conjecture is totally wrong. There may be some teams who view Wilson as you do but I think the odds they all do and none would trade a top 10 pick for him are zilch. I think there is a 75% chance the Texans would trade 1.1 for him happily.

Wilson by the way has 8 4th quarter comebacks and 10 game winning drives in the past two seasons. He is not just riding a D.
Agree completely, and he does so little wrong. And this was his "sophomore slump" season, too.

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...If you take his legs away he goes from very good to average.
Yeah I'm surprised his throwing has been so affected by the injury -- worse outcome than I'd have thought.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2629
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Default Re: Manziel

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he question after the NFL Scouting Combine on Johnny Manziel was which team with a top-five pick would take him. If ESPN analyst/former NFL quarterback Ron Jaworski was doing the drafting, Manziel wouldn't go in the first three rounds.

Jaworski told WPEN-FM in Philadelphia on Tuesday afternoon that "I wouldn't take him in the first three rounds. That's my opinion. It's incomplete right now. But he has not done a whole lot to me."
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200...s-ron-jaworski
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"Jaws" says he views Manziel as 4th round pick.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2630
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200...s-ron-jaworski
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"Jaws" says he views Manziel as 4th round pick.
Jaws is 6'2"..... this is just heightism.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2631
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
He doesn't get rattled? How would you even know he's rattled, he doesn't throw the ball enough to really see it. He is rarely put in a position to try to come from behind late in a game. It's pretty hard to be rattled when your team is winning.

The guy is purely a game manager right now. He went 42 for 68 for 524 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs and 101.6 QB rating in the playoffs this year. In those 3 games, he was averaging 14 completions, 175 yards, and 1 TD a game. That is pretty much the definition of a game manager by stats, and there was a good reason he wasn't considered for the Super Bowl MVP, even though that was his best game of the playoffs.

To say the bolded is to ignore a huge chunk of his senior year at Wisconsin where he lost 2-3 games b/c his defense couldn't hold a lead after he engineered drives in the final few minutes to give them the lead in the 1st place. Also, from a statiscal standpoint, His rookie season is still better than any 1 season known game managers like Alex Smith and Joe Flacco have ever had in their entire careers passing the ball. Both of those guys also had equally dominant defenses at 1 point or another in their careers too.

It's not fair to penalize him b/c he's got a solid team built around him that doesn't necessarily need him to be all world every game. The bottom line is when Wilson has been asked to put the team on his shoulders & make plays he has responded & come thru more often than not. Also keep in mind that we're talking about a 2nd year guy here.

There also aren't 10 qb's in the league better than him right now, nevertheless, we can agree to disagree.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2632
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200...s-ron-jaworski
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"Jaws" says he views Manziel as 4th round pick.
There are a couple of strange things about that comment. Jaws is usually very positive when talking about any quarterback. He is notorious for loving Sanchez, even when it was clear that he was not going to be good. So, I question whether Jaws is someone to rely on in evaluating QBs. I know he does the work, but he doesn't seem to be all that great at it. JMO. At the same time, I don't necessarily disagree with him in this situation.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2633
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
I don't understand. Don't you have Manziel as the #15 rated prospect on your big board? Wouldn't that be a high to mid round placement?
The more I delve into this draft class the more I'm convinced that the top talent in this class is being overrated. This class is far deeper in talent but the 2012 class was stronger in the top two rounds, IMO.

Having said that, the more I study the further Manziel is dropping down my board. I had Wilson about #25 in what I considered to be a stronger first round class than this. In my next update, Manziel will be in about that range.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2634
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
There are a couple of strange things about that comment. Jaws is usually very positive when talking about any quarterback. He is notorious for loving Sanchez, even when it was clear that he was not going to be good. So, I question whether Jaws is someone to rely on in evaluating QBs. I know he does the work, but he doesn't seem to be all that great at it. JMO. At the same time, I don't necessarily disagree with him in this situation.
To me, Jaws is the guy that can watch film and tell you exactly what's going wrong even when it's difficult to see. But he's not the guy that can tell you how to fix it.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2635
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
There are a couple of strange things about that comment. Jaws is usually very positive when talking about any quarterback. He is notorious for loving Sanchez, even when it was clear that he was not going to be good. So, I question whether Jaws is someone to rely on in evaluating QBs. I know he does the work, but he doesn't seem to be all that great at it. JMO. At the same time, I don't necessarily disagree with him in this situation.
The quote in context: ďIím a big believer in Nick Foles, but who knows? Manziel may fall. Iím not crazy about him, to be honest with you. Iíve only looked at five games. I wouldnít take him in the first three rounds. Thatís my opinion. Itís incomplete right now. But he has not done a whole lot to me.Ē

You could choose 5 of his games and support that opinion.

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The more I delve into this draft class the more I'm convinced that the top talent in this class is being overrated. This class is far deeper in talent but the 2012 class was stronger in the top two rounds, IMO.
Bill Polian has been saying that when all is said & done this won't be seen as the "best class in years" but more ~average.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2636
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by htownfan32 View Post
After watching college tape, some quick notes.

1. Wilson is much safer than Manziel. Will take chances but not as dumb about them as Manziel will be at times.

2. Manziel has greater pocket escapability. Elusiveness and vision are off the charts.

3. Wilson has better throwing mechanics than Manziel. Looks more prototypical.

4. Manziel is a much, much bigger threat with his legs.

5. They are both accurate, but Manziel is stupid accurate when improvising.

6. Both lay it all out on the field. Example: I can recall instances where they
both tackle the CB who made the interception on them. Shows that they play to the whistle.

7. Manziel seems much more instinctive than Wilson.

8. Wilson is better at taking what the defense gives to him. Great play action QB. (I daresay he would have thrived in Kubiak's system).

9. Manziel has a habit of hitting his receivers in stride on passes longer than 20 yards. Wilson's pinpoint accuracy range is the short intermediate game. Wilson has a much more regular throwing motion. Manziel is unorthodox but as accurate as he is with it, it's difficult to project whether this will be a positive or a negative in the pros. I lean to negative. Needs to work on throwing motion.

10. In my opinion, Manziel played in a more difficult conference. Not looking to start a "is the SEC the best?" debate, just my opinion.

11. Manziel forces more passes than Wilson does. He also has a habit of forcing passes to Mike Evans, but like Matt Stafford and Megatron, when you have a weapon who can go up and get it 99% of the time, you do it.

12. Manziel has the wow factor. He finds ways to make plays when you think there's absolutely nothing there.

13. Both quarterbacks are good in the 4th quarter. I would trust both of them with the game on the line with 2 minutes and down 7.

14.Both quarterbacks had good receivers in their best years. Wilson had Toon, Abbrederis, and even Montee Ball was a good receiver out of the backfield. Manziel had Swope his first year, Evans his second. Ben Malena was solid out of the backfield as well.

15. Different systems. Wisconsin and A&M offenses are different. Though Manziel had solid dependable running backs, for whatever reason Clarence McKinney (who is no longer calling plays, thank goodness) refused to hand the ball off.


At the end of the day, I still stand by my statements. Manziel has more moments where you go "oh wow". He's the playmaker out of the two. The difference is Wilson is the more level headed and prototypical in terms of what you look for in a QB of the two. He will hang in the pocket longer and look to use his arm more than his feet, while Manziel is much more paranoid in the pocket. I would have graded Wilson as an early second rounder (33-40 range) and Manziel as a late-mid to late first rounder (20-32). The difference is all it takes is one team to fall in love with Manziel's "oh wow" moments and disregard the risk (and make no mistake - I acknowledge the risk Manziel carries) to jump and pick him in the top 5.


I've got to commend you Aggie Fan Htown for your unbiased objectivity in regard to your JFF evaluation vs. Russell Wilson. Spot on. I think this post is the most accurate comparison I've seen to date. Well thought out and presented.

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Old 02-26-2014   #2637
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Default Re: Manziel

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Barry Switzer ain't scared to share his opinion. And so when asked about Johnny Manziel, he got exceptionally real with his words, calling the former Texas A&M quarterback an "arrogant little prick."

Switzer, appearing on CBS Sports Radio 920 AM in St. Louis on Wednesday morning, said that he doesn't care for Manziel's "antics" and said he's "embarrassed himself."

I'm gonna tell you. I said Johnny Manziel is Ö I don't like his antics. I think he's an arrogant little prick," Switzer said. "I've said that and I'll say it again. He's a privileged kid, he's embarrassed himself, he's embarrassed his teammates, his program. He's embarrassed his coach. And they'll all have to defend him because they have to coach. I know that. I spent 40 years in the damn game so I know how it works."
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-...t-little-prick
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Old 02-26-2014   #2638
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
And now, the REST of the story...

Quote:
Having said all that, Switzer LOVES the way Manziel plays the game and called Manziel "the best I've seen" and the "most dominant, dynamic college quarterback I've ever seen."

"He's the best I've seen. I've never seen a quarterback in college football take control of a game like he does and put up the numbers he does. It's fantastic what he's done against good competition. Game after game after game the numbers he puts up are staggering," Switzer said. "And when you watch him, you think he's a running back. You can't get to him, he's quick, he has more quickness than he does speed. He's elusive. You can't touch him. ... Strong arm. You watch him on film and tape and I've watched him enough -- the guy is oblivious to the rush. He lets you think you're going to touch him and then he disappears and he gets away from you and buys time. When a guy does that, guys are going to separate. I don't care how good you are in pro football, you can't cover for more than five seconds. Then they're going to be free.

"And Johnny Manziel gets the ball to people. He's the most dominant, most dynamic college quarterback I've ever seen."
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D.B. - That sounds like a nugget of reality wrapped in a layer of embellished hyperbole.
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Old 02-26-2014   #2639
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
I just don't get it. What antics?
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Old 02-26-2014   #2640
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Default Re: Manziel

Jaws in a nutshell was essentially saying that Manziel was more likely to expect the NFL to adjust to JFF than the JFF to adjust to the NFL.
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