Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > Football Talk > College Football & the 2014 NFL Draft
Home Forums Register FAQDonate Automatic Monthly Contribution Members List Mark Forums Read


College Football & the 2014 NFL Draft The future stars of the NFL

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-14-2014   #1
Marshall 
Subscribed Contributor
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 3,652
Rep Power: 95414 Marshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respectedMarshall is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Trade Partners Wanted

Would you do this:
1-1 3000 to Minnesota for

1-8 1400
2-40 500
3-72 230
3-96 116
4-104 86
5-136 38
6-168 24.2
7-200 11.4
2015 1st 420
2015 2nd 190
----------- 3016

Leaving us with:

1-8 1400
2-33 580
2-40 500
3-65 265
3-72 230
3-96 116
4-97 112
4-104 86
5-129 43
5-136 38
6-161 27
6-168 24.2
7-193 14.2
7-200 11.4
2015 1st 420
2015 2nd 190

What would a mock look like with 14 picks this year and 2 high choices to add next year?
Marshall is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2014   #2
steelbtexan
Hall of Fame
 
steelbtexan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Age: 52
Posts: 12,612
Rep Power: 125942 steelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Trade Partners Wanted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
Would you do this:
1-1 3000 to Minnesota for

1-8 1400
2-40 500
3-72 230
3-96 116
4-104 86
5-136 38
6-168 24.2
7-200 11.4
2015 1st 420
2015 2nd 190
----------- 3016

Leaving us with:

1-8 1400
2-33 580
2-40 500
3-65 265
3-72 230
3-96 116
4-97 112
4-104 86
5-129 43
5-136 38
6-161 27
6-168 24.2
7-193 14.2
7-200 11.4
2015 1st 420
2015 2nd 190

What would a mock look like with 14 picks this year and 2 high choices to add next year?
In a heart beat if Rick isn't doing the drafting That's Hershcel Walker stuff there. Your team would stacked with young talent for yrs. Provided Rick was a competent GM.

Even if you didn't get your QB this yr you could build the reat of the team and have Two #1' and two #2's to get your QB in the better (IMHO) 2015 QB class. If you had to you could even throw a 2016 1st into the mix to get the 2015 QB.
steelbtexan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2014   #3
matts290
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 265
Rep Power: 18116 matts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respectedmatts290 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Trade Partners Wanted

If they throw in Adrian Peterson and Cordelle Patterson I might take it, maybe another future first rounder and stock our concessions at Reliant for a season.

But seriously, there is not a chance in hell Minnesota trades their entire draft for out first pick...they have just as many if not more needs than we do. And don't give me that "b-b-but the points" nonsense because no actual NFL GM busts out a calculator and adds up those mythical points before making a trade.
matts290 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2014   #4
b0ng
Ooops
 
b0ng's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Age: 34
Posts: 7,832
Rep Power: 91809 b0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Trade Partners Wanted

That would be laughed at forever and ever if Minny gave up almost their entire draft for 1 pick. The Texans would be ridiculous stupid if they did not pick that up, that draft pick chart is outdated if it's the one I am thinking of.
__________________
\_(ツ)_/
http://www.thedrawplay.com/?p=88
b0ng is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2014   #5
infantrycak
Lead Moderator
 
infantrycak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 47
Posts: 49,438
Rep Power: 416490 infantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Trade Partners Wanted

Quote:
Originally Posted by b0ng View Post
That would be laughed at forever and ever if Minny gave up almost their entire draft for 1 pick. The Texans would be ridiculous stupid if they did not pick that up, that draft pick chart is outdated if it's the one I am thinking of.
I agree with everything except the last statement. The draft pick chart everyone is wanting to claim is outdated was very close on the RGIII trade as well as other trades which have been made with the new CBA.
__________________
The Art of War
infantrycak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2014   #6
Playoffs 
Subscribed Contributor
 
Playoffs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 16,445
Rep Power: 393216 Playoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respectedPlayoffs is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Trade Partners Wanted

Interesting start to revaluing...

How to Value NFL Draft Picks

The CAVOA is the comparative value of each pick versus the normal pick and is based off of real, historical, on-field performance. This non-arbitrary statistic is a massive improvement over the old draft chart. To compare my system with the old one, I transformed the old system into a percentage over average as well. The results are below.



The old system massively over values the earliest picks and significantly undervalues mid-to-late round picks. The regression line is clearly a better predictor of future value than the old chart.


Above from Harvard Sports Analysis/Harvard Sports Analysis Collective
Playoffs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2014   #7
infantrycak
Lead Moderator
 
infantrycak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Age: 47
Posts: 49,438
Rep Power: 416490 infantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respectedinfantrycak is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Trade Partners Wanted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
That chart is based on the performance of players involved in trades rather than how teams value picks in trades. The difference is interesting though:



The crossover is mid 2nd with those above not getting good value and those below getting better value with the maximum disparity being late 3rd to upper 5th.
__________________
The Art of War
infantrycak is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored links
Old 02-15-2014   #8
Number19
All Pro
 
Join Date: May 2004
Age: 66
Posts: 850
Rep Power: 35244 Number19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respectedNumber19 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Trade Partners Wanted

This chart doesn't make any more sense than the old chart. If Cleveland wanted to swap first round picks with the Texans, this chart says all they should offer is their 3-71; and we all know this trade will never happen.

If Minnesota wanted to move up from #8, all they should offer is their 2-40 plus a 7th.

Perhaps this is why trading out of the 1-1 pick so seldom happens. The perceived value of the 1-1 pick is higher than the actuary chart says it is worth.
Number19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2014   #9
ArlingtonTexan
Moderator
 
ArlingtonTexan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Age: 47
Posts: 6,079
Rep Power: 73193 ArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respectedArlingtonTexan is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Trade Partners Wanted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Number19 View Post
This chart doesn't make any more sense than the old chart. If Cleveland wanted to swap first round picks with the Texans, this chart says all they should offer is their 3-71; and we all know this trade will never happen.

If Minnesota wanted to move up from #8, all they should offer is their 2-40 plus a 7th.

Perhaps this is why trading out of the 1-1 pick so seldom happens. The perceived value of the 1-1 pick is higher than the actuary chart says it is worth.
Given the two options, I would rather base my expectation on the performance chart versus the 'perception" chart. The reality is somewhere between the two and on yearly basis is dependent if there a supreme talent especially at QB at the earliest portions of the draft. 1.1 has not been traded since Whiny Eli and outside of RGIII, there have been only a couple of trades even in the top 5. As think about, most year the worst draft pick to have is the number 1 overall with anywhere in the top 5 closely following.

I do find it interesting that the charts seem to converge in the middle of the draft where during the draft it seems like trades are darn made every pick and where rosters are generally made or broken.
__________________
It doesn't just seem like I was talking down to people, I was. (Runner 8/4/09).
ArlingtonTexan is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > Football Talk > College Football & the 2014 NFL Draft
Home Forums Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:47 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Ad Management by RedTyger