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College Football & the 2014 NFL Draft The future stars of the NFL

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Old 02-09-2014   #41
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Doppleganger - you have two #1's in 2004 and 2007. Maybe I am not understanding your rules. Gallery was #2 and Brown #5.
You are right. I had initially created a far more ambitious project but had to scale down. Initially Gallery and Brown were part of the discussion, but I scaled it down becuase it had become too overwhelming.

Thanks for catching the error. I have edited in initial post.
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Old 02-09-2014   #42
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
His judgement

This is not a normal QB yr. Mettenberger may fall to the 3rd rd. He probably would've been a top 15 pick. Murray probably would've been a late 1st -mid 2nd rd pick.

How does that figure into his statistical evaluation?

Tell me more about Bruce Smith/Reggie White/LT etc..... premium pass rushers who went #1 and changed the culture of their franchises.
Bruce Smith is the only player you listed who went #1. LT went #2 in 1981 and White was a supplemental pick in 1984.
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Old 02-09-2014   #43
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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great work Doppel as usual. my biggest problem is sample size is too broad & position has evolved so much just within the past couple years. look how ineffective one of the greatest QB's in NFL history looked in the Super Bowl, why? not just a great defense or great players match-up, he lacks the mobility to climb in the pocket, create time or threaten with his legs.

two best teams in the NFL both have great defenses no doubt (49ers/hawks) but what they also have is mobile, deadly, playmaker signal callers (Kap/Russell). Manziel is probably tops but Bridgewater has the best mind/arm, then next year you have two Mariota/Hundley, after which Jameis Winston. So which ever team drafts these player stands at least a 60% chance of success?

problem is only one or two teams now will have a shot @ top QB's just kinda hinges on how season plays out. never expected Texans to flop this past season but here we are, two maybe three (trade down) QB options or best DE/OLB prospect since Mario Williams in 2006.
You hit the nail on the head. Yes, Seattle and SF have very good elite defenses, BUT they also have high level QBs. If you have a very good defense and a mediocre to average QB your ceiling is in essence the Kansas City Chiefs.
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Old 02-10-2014   #44
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Default Re: A statistical look at the draft

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Say the Texans take Clowney at 1 and one of the top 3 QB's fall to the 8-10 range, would you consider making a Julio Jones type trade and picking one of the QB's? I wouldn't do it but you could get the 2 most important positions in 1 draft (Pass Rusher/QB) and with the comp picks/FA you could fill in NT/RT/CB/S holes with the $$$$$ saved by cutting MS/OD/Newton etc......

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2015 1st
No. We have too many holes to be trading a ton of picks to move up. I'm never a fan of those big trade up moves because you're basically trading 3-4 picks/players for one guy. That guy better be pretty darn good then. The only QB I would have made that trade for in recent history was Andrew Luck. I like Bridgewater, but he's not Andrew Luck.
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