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Old 01-14-2014   #121
Corrosion
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by DBCooper View Post
He's not doing that with any of the QB's on this current roster.
You are crazy man , we gotta piss away another full season to find out if Keenum is an NFL QB.
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Old 01-14-2014   #122
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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You are crazy man , we gotta piss away another full season to find out if Keenum is an NFL QB.
Oh, I'm crazy all right.
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Old 01-14-2014   #123
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
No one disagrees with the fact that Obrien will evaluate every player on the roster.

What we disagree with is your ideal scenario of pissing away another year with Keenum.

There are more holes in the roster than there are draft picks , this , despite McNair's belief that it is , isn't a quick fix.


Yes , the defense needs a couple holes filled one way or another. Ninja , Earl Mitchell and Tate being FA's probably the three most obvious.

Drafting a QB early doesn't mean you cant fix the majority of those holes via the draft. Here , let me show you:


Round 1 - Your QB of choice. Pick one , any one.
Round 2 - Trent Murphy. - DE Stanford
Round 3 - JaWuan James - OT Tennessee
Round 4 - Arthur Lynch - TE Georgia
Round 5 - Ryan Carrethers - DT Arkansas State
Round 6 - Andrew Jackson - ILB Western Kentucky
Round 7 - De'Anthony Thomas - RB Oregon


That fills most of the problem positions .... other than maybe OG (Wade Smith??) , OLB and Safety.
Great mock, I only wish Rick was as good as you are.

Somewhere along the 4/5th rd I hope they pick a nickel CB. McCain gives me heartburn.
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Old 01-14-2014   #124
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
No one disagrees with the fact that Obrien will evaluate every player on the roster.

What we disagree with is your ideal scenario of pissing away another year with Keenum.

There are more holes in the roster than there are draft picks , this , despite McNair's belief that it is , isn't a quick fix.


Yes , the defense needs a couple holes filled one way or another. Ninja , Earl Mitchell and Tate being FA's probably the three most obvious.

Drafting a QB early doesn't mean you cant fix the majority of those holes via the draft. Here , let me show you:


Round 1 - Your QB of choice. Pick one , any one.
Round 2 - Trent Murphy. - DE Stanford
Round 3 - JaWuan James - OT Tennessee
Round 4 - Arthur Lynch - TE Georgia
Round 5 - Ryan Carrethers - DT Arkansas State
Round 6 - Andrew Jackson - ILB Western Kentucky
Round 7 - De'Anthony Thomas - RB Oregon


That fills most of the problem positions .... other than maybe OG (Wade Smith??) , OLB and Safety.
Disagreeing with my scenario is not an issue. A reasoned response like your latest is not an issue. It's the unreasoned responses that gets my goat.

(I thought about giving some examples, but I've changed my mind. I think most readers know what I'm referring to.)

My "ideal scenario" is exactly that, my idea of an "ideal". I think it more likely we trade back for extra picks and then the question becomes, where do we draft a QB.

In an early post, I stated that I only count the first three rounds as representing "quality" picks - and maybe round 4. Players taken in rounds 5 thru 7 seldom make an impact, much less makes an impact their first year, although occasionally you do hit the jackpot. But by this definition, you've addressed our defensive deficiencies with only one player, Trent Murphy. Now, of course, some spots will be addressed with a FA, but still, this is basically going into next season with our current starters and hoping the coaches will be able to make something good happen. But if Thompson, who's played under Crennel, knows what he's talking about, then we may be defensively weak and this doesn't bode well for a significant turn around.

The whole basis of my "ideal scenario" is not to have tunnel vision about the QB position and to build toward two/three years down the road.

McNair wants to "win now", but I hardly think he expects a playoff team next year. As a self made billionaire, I think he knows how to evaluate realistic expectations. I do think he expects the team to be above .500.

Now, taking into consideration that this is an "ideal" scenario, if O'Brien thinks he can win with Keenum, I don't think we will "piss away" next season. If you do think this will be the case, then you are saying you have a very low opinion on O'Brien's decision making and must think we made the wrong decision choosing him as our coach. Now, you might legitimately argue that there is no way that O'Brien will come to this decision, but you can't argue against my "ideal scenario" without also taking a negative position against O'Brien under these circumstances.
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Old 01-14-2014   #125
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
Great mock, I only wish Rick was as good as you are.

Somewhere along the 4/5th rd I hope they pick a nickel CB. McCain gives me heartburn.
Questionable that Jackson & Thomas last that long .... there are other names you could plug in replacing them at their respective positions.


They will likely have one comp pick in the 5th round. How bout Florida Sr CB Jaylen Watkins with that comp pick and Maine Sr CB Kendall James as an UDFA.
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Old 02-07-2014   #126
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

OK! The entire 2014 Draft by the Texans totals 4041 TVP (trade value points):
A 2015 First round pick (usually discounted to the value of a 2014 second) using the 16th pick as average would be 420 TVP.

While an unrealistic fantasy trade ensues, would you do it?

9 - 2015 First round picks @ 420 TVP = 3780 TVP
3-1 2014 pick at 265 TVP
Total = 4045 TVP

I worked out the scenario for:
Rams
Jaguars
Browns
Raiders
Falcons
Buccaneers

but the Vikings, Bills and Lions requires a little more manipulation to trade our 2014 (by this time) #1-7 for future #1s.

Along with our own #1, we would have 10 first round picks in 2015.

Thoughts?
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Old 02-07-2014   #127
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
OK! The entire 2014 Draft by the Texans totals 4041 TVP (trade value points):
A 2015 First round pick (usually discounted to the value of a 2014 second) using the 16th pick as average would be 420 TVP.

While an unrealistic fantasy trade ensues, would you do it?

9 - 2015 First round picks @ 420 TVP = 3780 TVP
3-1 2014 pick at 265 TVP
Total = 4045 TVP

I worked out the scenario for:
Rams
Jaguars
Browns
Raiders
Falcons
Buccaneers

but the Vikings, Bills and Lions requires a little more manipulation to trade our 2014 (by this time) #1-7 for future #1s.

Along with our own #1, we would have 10 first round picks in 2015.

Thoughts?
to clarify, we only have the ten picks & nothing later rounds? Also, are any future years impacted? edit: I think it helps knowing which picks we have in 2014 as any 2015 selection will place another year before player is probably ready.
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Old 02-07-2014   #128
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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to clarify, we only have the ten picks & nothing later rounds? Also, are any future years impacted? edit: I think it helps knowing which picks we have in 2014 as any 2015 selection will place another year before player is probably ready.
We essentially get 9 2015 first round picks and keep our 3-65 and comp picks in 2014. We would have to use the IR from 2013, FAs and UFAs in 2014.

But what a draft next year! 9 additional 1sts to go along with our complete 2015 draft picks.
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Old 02-07-2014   #129
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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One question going around the board is: do we draft a QB with our top pick
You bet we do.
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or do we trade down, picking up a QB lower in the draft, in rounds two or three? I offer the suggestion that we wait until 2015 to pick up our QB of the future.
We won't have the opportunity to draft a top future QB in 2015 unless we tank 2014.
Quote:
5) We end up with two #1's and two high #2's this year and an extra #1 next year.
That would be nice—if we could do it. But it's only a dream.
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Old 02-07-2014   #130
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
We essentially get 9 2015 first round picks and keep our 3-65 and comp picks in 2014. We would have to use the IR from 2013, FAs and UFAs in 2014.

But what a draft next year! 9 additional 1sts to go along with our complete 2015 draft picks.
It is easy to see 10 total first rounders in '15 but no way to be sure who will be there, Winston could return again to school. We would have ammo to buy what we want IF the higher rated team wants to trade down. Let's say Oakland and Tampa draft Mariota & Winston 1&2 and Jets select Petty & Hundley goes that same top 10-12 leaving us with what? Injuries also can negatively screw up a plan as well as some just plateauing and not being what was expected. Can we just assume a top ten finish?

I think I'd rather do trades achieving at least one top ten next draft and either Browns' #26 or a first and second now and in 2015 with maybe Oakland. We can do a trade with Cleveland if we can just make them willing to do more than nibble the hook. Josh Gordon is still sitting there and could be part of a deal.
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Old 02-07-2014   #131
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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You bet we do.

We won't have the opportunity to draft a top future QB in 2015 unless we tank 2014.

That would be nice—if we could do it. But it's only a dream.
remember when signing FA Ed Reed was an impossible dream?
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Old 02-07-2014   #132
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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That would be nice—if we could do it. But it's only a dream.
This is only possible if we manage a trade with Cleveland. Current speculation has them looking hard at acquiring Washington's backup QB Kirk Cousins. But the rumor is that they are also "enamored" with Manziel.

Talk on the radio this evening is that around the league, Manziel is rising in estimation and may end up as the number one ranked QB.

So if Cleveland fails to sign Cousins, and if they really target Manziel as their man, then a trade may be possible.
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Old 02-07-2014   #133
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This is only possible if we manage a trade with Cleveland. Current speculation has them looking hard at acquiring Washington's backup QB Kirk Cousins. But the rumor is that they are also "enamored" with Manziel.

Talk on the radio this evening is that around the league, Manziel is rising in estimation and may end up as the number one ranked QB.

So if Cleveland fails to sign Cousins, and if they really target Manziel as their man, then a trade may be possible.
I think Cleveland needs the "pizzazz" of a Manziel and why I am basing my thoughts on a successful trade with them. They missed on RG3 and we have seen the debacle of trying to convince a coach to sign up. To me the question is does the owner want to stop being the laughing stock of the NFL? If we are fortunate, we could catch Cleveland in a perfect storm and get a very good deal or at least a decent deal if not all I want.
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Old 02-07-2014   #134
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Ideal scenario for me

Sign Brian Orakpo in FA with the $$$$ saved by cutting Schaub/OD/Newton/Manning.

Rd.1 Clowney
Rd.2 Moses
Rd.3 Brett Smith and he becomes what I think he can become.
Rd.4 Watkins
Rd.5 Allen
Rd.5 Andrews
Rd.6 Sunseri
Rd.7 Spencer Long
Rd.7 Najavar

Defense

Watt----Allen----Clowney

Orakpo-----Cushing------Reed------Mercilus

KJ------Swearinger--------Sunseri-----JoJo ------ Nickle CB/S Watkins

That's a playoff ready defense, pass rush? We got a pass rush Houston.


Offense
Brown-----Long------Myers------Brooks--------Moses Swing OT/OG/C Harris/Jones
------------------------Smith-----------------------------
Foster-------DJ Johnson--------Andrews------

Griffin------Graham-------Najavar

AJ-------Posey-----------Hopkins-------Cruse------Martin

That's a long time playoff team.
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Old 02-07-2014   #135
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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I think Cleveland needs the "pizzazz" of a Manziel and why I am basing my thoughts on a successful trade with them. They missed on RG3 and we have seen the debacle of trying to convince a coach to sign up. To me the question is does the owner want to stop being the laughing stock of the NFL? If we are fortunate, we could catch Cleveland in a perfect storm and get a very good deal or at least a decent deal if not all I want.
Drafting a player for his "pizzazz" sure wouldn't help him there.

But, I also hope we are fortunate in this regard. If we don't like our options at #1 then a trade down would be very nice.
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Old 02-07-2014   #136
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I think Cleveland needs the "pizzazz" of a Manziel and why I am basing my thoughts on a successful trade with them. They missed on RG3 and we have seen the debacle of trying to convince a coach to sign up. To me the question is does the owner want to stop being the laughing stock of the NFL? If we are fortunate, we could catch Cleveland in a perfect storm and get a very good deal or at least a decent deal if not all I want.
Kyle Shanahan is the new offensive coordinator in Cleveland. Manziel would be a good fit for his offense.
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Old 02-07-2014   #137
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Kyle Shanahan is the new offensive coordinator in Cleveland. Manziel would be a good fit for his offense.
we think alike. Wasn't that long ago that folks were laughing at my mock with trade with Cleveland. More coming along now.
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Old 02-07-2014   #138
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...I offer the suggestion that we wait until 2015 to pick up our QB of the future...
Not picking on you 19, just quoting this because I saw it mentioned in this thread. This is something I've seen a lot of talk about around here. I really hate this thought process.

This is why you don't wait:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5995754

http://espn.go.com/college-football/...y-2-more-years

You never know what will be there. There's no way to project what next year's QB class will look like. Last year everybody was saying that the 2014 QB class was going to be awesome. Now there is no franchise QB.

If you don't like any QBs this year then obviously you pass on them. But if you like a guy, you don't pass just because there may be something better a year later.
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Old 02-07-2014   #139
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Yep I mentioned same thing upstream at post 130
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Old 02-08-2014   #140
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Not picking on you 19, just quoting this because I saw it mentioned in this thread. This is something I've seen a lot of talk about around here. I really hate this thought process.

This is why you don't wait:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5995754

http://espn.go.com/college-football/...y-2-more-years

You never know what will be there. There's no way to project what next year's QB class will look like. Last year everybody was saying that the 2014 QB class was going to be awesome. Now there is no franchise QB.

If you don't like any QBs this year then obviously you pass on them. But if you like a guy, you don't pass just because there may be something better a year later.
I agree with you to a large degree. It's folly to target a particular QB in a future draft. But it's also folly to obsess on taking a QB to the detriment of addressing the overall needs of the team.

For those of us who are considering the advantages of trading down, the point is made that there is no Luck in this years draft and the three top rated QB's all have question marks. Looking toward 2015 as a year to draft a QB is simply an ace in the hole. Most trade down scenarios have the Texans taking a QB in the second or third round and also signing a veteran FA; and then having Keenum and these two compete for the starting spot.

My concern is that by various reports, our current defensive personnel doesn't match up well with Crennel's 2-gap 34 defense, forcing him into a "hybrid" defensive scheme. So while there is talk that the team doesn't need major rebuilding to get us back on track to the playoffs, this may not actually be the case for our defense. Again, last night, there was talk on the radio of the lack of talent level of our current defensive personnel and which players might be retained and which might be let go. Drafting a QB 1-1 likely puts us on a two or three year defensive rebuilding track. Of course I recognize that we could get lucky with some lower draft picks, speeding up the rebuilding.

But using the inherent value of the 1-1 and the 2-1 picks makes a lot of sense if OB decides he doesn't need that QB with the first pick.
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