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Old 01-14-2014   #1541
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Errant Hothy View Post
So something more along the lines of the epic fleecing St Louis pulled (3 firsts and a second)?
Is that a fleecing or is that fair value?
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Old 01-14-2014   #1542
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Errant Hothy View Post
So would #4 and #26 be enough in the eyes of the JFF fans?
I want 4 , 26 , 68 & next years #1 , or something similar.
That's less than the Skins gave to move up for RG3 , the difference being they gave up a 2nd instead of a 3rd (68).

Considering they only moved to #2 and this is the #1 giving the Browns their pick of the top signal callers rather than the leftovers .... and the fact that rookie salaries are now slotted instead of holy %$*# Batman ..... I think its worth at lest that.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1543
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
I want 4 , 26 , 68 & next years #1 , or something similar.
That's less than the Skins gave to move up for RG3 , the difference being they gave up a 2nd instead of a 3rd (68).

Considering they only moved to #2 and this is the #1 giving the Browns their pick of the top signal callers rather than the leftovers .... and the fact that rookie salaries are now slotted instead of holy %$*# Batman ..... I think its worth at lest that.
I think I told you before, but there isn't a chance in hell that is happening. We need to stop using the RG3 trade as a baseline, Dan Snyder is the stupidest owner in all the NFL and that trade was an epic failure. Nobody is going to mortgage their future for a single player, not even Cleveland. Even with rookie wage scale much more manageable in the new CBA, giving up that many early picks over the next two seasons is a stupid move.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1544
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by matts290 View Post
I think I told you before, but there isn't a chance in hell that is happening. We need to stop using the RG3 trade as a baseline, Dan Snyder is the stupidest owner in all the NFL. Nobody is going to mortgage their future for a single player, not even Cleveland.
Yeah and that's the only similar example in the history of the NFL .....



If I don't get a package similar to that , I don't trade the pick. Its that simple.


All it takes is one owner or GM to fall head over heels for one of these top prospects and a deal like that can materialize.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1545
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by matts290 View Post
I think I told you before, but there isn't a chance in hell that is happening. We need to stop using the RG3 trade as a baseline, Dan Snyder is the stupidest owner in all the NFL and that trade was an epic failure. Nobody is going to mortgage their future for a single player, not even Cleveland. Even with rookie wage scale much more manageable in the new CBA, giving up that many early picks over the next two seasons is a stupid move.
Cleveland was also in the running with Washington for RGIII and missed out by because Washington's bid included a 2nd RD and Cleveland didn't.That being the case teams will take that into consideration when trying to trade up.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1546
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Default Re: Manziel

Has anyone brought up the Heisman curse yet?

I've mentioned some affection towards Manziel myself, but I do not want the Texans to draft him, because of that curse. He's going to make a fine player, he's going to have some success. But I think he'll be like Palmer, where we're always questioning if the rest of his team is good enough.

It is possible that I'm wrong & he's going to be a HOF, Super Bowl winning QB. & that is a dumb reason for not drafting a QB. But, that's my reason.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1547
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Has anyone brought up the Heisman curse yet?

I've mentioned some affection towards Manziel myself, but I do not want the Texans to draft him, because of that curse. He's going to make a fine player, he's going to have some success. But I think he'll be like Palmer, where we're always questioning if the rest of his team is good enough.

It is possible that I'm wrong & he's going to be a HOF, Super Bowl winning QB. & that is a dumb reason for not drafting a QB. But, that's my reason.

That curse only affects those that win the Heisman following those that win it after their senior season, not those that win it after their freshman season
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Old 01-14-2014   #1548
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Default Re: Manziel

What all you guys seem to be missing is that Luck & RG3 were once every 5-8 year prospects...Those type of prospects tend to set the stage for the crazy trade up deals..There's not one of those at the top of the draft this year..Clowney would be if there weren't questions about his motivation.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1549
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by mussop View Post
Actually he hasn't done a mock yet.
O rly? The tweet playoffs quoted said Gil will put JFF at number 1 in his first mock. Maybe he changes that, but it was his quote.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1550
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
Is that a fleecing or is that fair value?
That's the question I think a bunch of people are trying to get a handle on now that the NFL has the rookie wag cap.

I still think the Rams fleeced the Skins, now if Houston gets something similar maybe that will establish a new baseline.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1551
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Default Re: Manziel

The general Rule of Thumb and Conventional Wisdom for many many years is the first pick in the draft is worth (3) first round draft picks. The new CBA only makes that more attractive. That said, there are years the draft is void of top talent the #1 pick is not worth trading for.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1552
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honoring Earl 34 View Post
He reminds Bob of Ed Reed .
Dude, that's just mean.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
in the second round or later i'd be willing to take the risk. i wouldnt spend a first on manziel though. to me, he's vince young with an extra IQ point and fewer natural talents ... and similar maturity issues.
Right - VY's passing stats were just off-the charts in College.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
I want 4 , 26 , 68 & next years #1 , or something similar.
That's less than the Skins gave to move up for RG3 , the difference being they gave up a 2nd instead of a 3rd (68).

Considering they only moved to #2 and this is the #1 giving the Browns their pick of the top signal callers rather than the leftovers .... and the fact that rookie salaries are now slotted instead of holy %$*# Batman ..... I think its worth at lest that.
I'd agree, but I doubt we'll get it. The fact that there's several QBs in the same "grouping" will likely work agaisnt us unless someone sets themselves apart at the combine.
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Last edited by disaacks3; 01-14-2014 at 11:58 AM.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1553
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texian View Post
The general Rule of Thumb and Conventional Wisdom for many many years is the first pick in the draft is worth (3) first round draft picks. The new CBA only makes that more attractive. That said, there are years the draft is void of top talent the #1 pick is not worth trading for.
You capitalize them like they are chapters in the NFL GM and Owners handbook or something, when in reality there is really no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick because in the modern era is has effectively only happened twice.

The Eli Manning trade where essentially the Chargers traded their first overall pick in 2004 for the Giants 5th overall and 65th overall in 2004, and also their 1st and 5th rounders in 2005. Keep in mind Eli was a consensus first overall pick, more of a sure thing than any of the guys in this draft, plus the Manning's made it known that Eli would not being playing in San Diego. This trade was made after the picks were already made so it's not exactly the situation we are in there...

The second instance is from 2001 where the Chargers traded their first overall for the Falcons 1st and 5th rounders in 2001.

So no, there is no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick and expecting "3 first rounders" or the "4 , 26 , 68 & next years #1" is crazy.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1554
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by disaacks3 View Post
Right VY's passing stats were just off-the charts in College.
size, strength, the ability to stand in the pocket with even pro's hanging off of him, mid range accuracy, arm strength, and speed. vince young had far more natural physical talent than manziel. he was dumb as a stump and is a prime example of exceptional talent being enough to win at the college level.

if you're going by college stats, keenum is the current elite, and the kids from texas tech and hawaii have won the last 3 superbowls. david carr is on his way to the hall of fame (ugh i feel dirty writing that).
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Old 01-14-2014   #1555
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Do you think Gil Brandt is putting JFF #1 in his mock because he has inside info on the Texans, or because he wants to be provocative and get lots of webhits?
It's a click generator, no doubt, but in this QB group I won't call out someone's opinion that Manziel has the better potential as invalid on its face. He's done some remarkable things on the field.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1556
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
size, strength, the ability to stand in the pocket with even pro's hanging off of him, mid range accuracy, arm strength, and speed. vince young had far more natural physical talent than manziel. he was dumb as a stump and is a prime example of exceptional talent being enough to win at the college level.

if you're going by college stats, keenum is the current elite, and the kids from texas tech and hawaii have won the last 3 superbowls. david carr is on his way to the hall of fame (ugh i feel dirty writing that).
You're bypassing the level-of-competition metric in making Keenum, et al. elite.

VY had better prototypical size, yes. He was a great "athlete".

Your attribution of Arm Strength and accuracy advantage can't be so easily supported.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1557
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by matts290 View Post
You capitalize them like they are chapters in the NFL GM and Owners handbook or something, when in reality there is really no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick because in the modern era is has effectively only happened twice.

So no, there is no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick and expecting "3 first rounders" or the "4 , 26 , 68 & next years #1" is crazy.
I am only going to disagree with your conclusion not your rhetoric comments. There has long been a rule of thumb that future draft picks are valued one round lower for each year they are brought forward. Under that, three 1sts if in consecutive years are valued at a 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year. Doesn't mean it happens but the value isn't off much. 4, 26, 68 and next year's 1st would be 4, 26, 68 and a 2nd this year. That also is not crazy although a 2nd next year (valued as a 3rd this year) would be closer.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1558
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Default Re: Manziel

Vince Young could have been a very good QB, he just didn't want to be. People forget he had a good rookie season, won ROY and got a Pro Bowl election. Then at the end of his first season he had that whole statement about not liking the NFL and saying it was not as fun as it used to be. That right there tells you all you need to know about Young, he was gifted and coasted by on it during his entire amateur career, but when he got to the pros and needed to put in tons of work and dedication he couldn't cut it.

Johnny may be a great athlete, but he does no have near the natural gifts that Young did and he has had to work hard for everything he has gotten going all the way back to his freshman year in high school.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1559
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I am only going to disagree with your conclusion not your rhetoric comments. There has long been a rule of thumb that future draft picks are valued one round lower for each year they are brought forward. Under that, three 1sts if in consecutive years are valued at a 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year. Doesn't mean it happens but the value isn't off much. 4, 26, 68 and next year's 1st would be 4, 26, 68 and a 2nd this year. That also is not crazy although a 2nd next year (valued as a 3rd this year) would be closer.
There is no rhetoric involved, I posted the facts of the two instances of the first overall pick being traded in the last 30 years, and neither of the two trades were on the level of what some people expect to get for ours. I understand there is a school of thought for what a pick is worth, but the first overall is different and the fact is it just doesn't get traded, which is evidenced by it only happening twice in the last 3 decades.

My personal opinion is the RG3 trade is a cautionary tale for many GMs in the future as to why you don't give up huge haul for just one guy.
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Old 01-14-2014   #1560
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Default Re: Manziel

Quote:
Originally Posted by matts290 View Post
There is no rhetoric involved..."
The rhetoric comments, not rhetoric, were about Texian's use of capitalization, which by the way I agree with.

Quote:
I understand there is a school of thought for what a pick is worth, but the first overall is different and the fact is it just doesn't get traded, which is evidenced by it only happening twice in the last 3 decades.
I think these huge trades draftniks drool over are just shy of a figment of their imagination - somewhere a white elephant exists, don't expect to see them any time soon. Trades in general aren't that common and 90% of them fall into the small maneuvers category like dropping back for Duane Brown or moving up for Flacco.
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