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Old 01-06-2014   #41
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones.

Round 1
2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

Round 2
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
2010: Jimmy Clausen
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
2005: (none)
2004: (none)
2003: (none)
2002: (none)
2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: (none)
1999: Shaun King

Round 3
2013: Mike Glennon
2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
2011: Ryan Mallett
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: (none)
2008: Kevin O'Connell
2007: Trent Edwards
2006: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle
2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene
2004: Matt Schaub
2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms
2002: Josh McCown
2001: (none)
2000: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman
1999: Brock Huard
I took the liberty to go ahead & bold a few names for the visual effect.
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Old 01-06-2014   #42
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I took the liberty to go ahead & bold a few names for the visual effect.
You missed Carr
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Old 01-06-2014   #43
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

The college game allows a QB to compensate for a lot of flaws and weaknesses in their game that will get them eaten alive in the NFL.

VY is a classic case in point. His pure athleticism could make up for his inability to read defenses pre-snap or to make consistently tight throws in college. But, in the NFL, those weaknesses get exposed and exploited to the point that a one-trick pony has very little to offer if they do not have the ability to learn new tricks.

I think two primary factors that you see in the great NFL QBs is consistent accuracy and the clutch factor. Regardless of what they do in college or even early in their NFL careers, the great QBs all share the common traits of being cool under pressure (especially game-winning drives pressure) and avoiding stupid mistakes with accurate passes.

What the NFL requires of QBs to be championship successful is much more narrowly defined than what college level requires to be very successful. Add in the much faster speed of the game in the NFL and all the various exotic looks defenses show these days, and it is not a wonder why so few college QBs succeed in the pro game.
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Old 01-06-2014   #44
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Could the distribution of talent be a factor? Leinart and Young, for example, played on dominant teams whose programs could attract the best talent available to them--thus they were throwing to better receivers from behind better blockers, while playing against those who had to take what they could get. In the NFL, everyone on the field is the best there is. The defenders are now much more likely to predict what you're going to do, and have the physical traits to do something about it. Your success depends on how you handle that.

Which, come to think of it, goes back to what people were saying about mental toughness and the speed of the game. Hm.
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Old 01-06-2014   #45
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Guys taken in the first round have a higher percentage of panning out in part because their teams are going to give them a lot longer leash. Keenum got 8 games. Yates got about the same. You think the Texans would give up on a first round drafted QB after 8 games? Hell no. Even with the new rookie wage scale, teams aren't going to walk away from that money as easily as they will a later round draft pick. That's fine, but it does call into question the value of development. Again with the Brady example, he wouldn't be what he is today without his unique set of circumstances. Stick him in Cleveland and he probably never develops. Put Tim Couch in New England and he might have turned out differently. Brees didn't look like the guy he is now his first few season either. Development matters. Or, if you want to go back in time a bit, Steve Young is a good example. Looked great in college and in the USFL, but not in TB. SF grabs him off the scrap heap and now he's a HOFer.

So really it boils down to a valuation of risk vs. reward and philosophy. IMNSHO, if you see a guy like Elway, Manning, Marino, etc., you grab him in the first round. If you're looking at guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or probably any one of this year's crop, you take a flier a bit later and try to develop them. It sucks, but it beats spending four years trying to figure out if David Carr really is the problem, or if it's coaching, scheme, O-Line, etc. To me, that purgatory is worse than drafting the next Jamarcus Russell. At least then you'd know to cut bait sooner. But that goes back to the money. If you spent even just $20M on a first round QB, you're not letting him go before year three at the earliest, more likely year four or five.

That's the rest of AJ's good years. We got the #1 pick on the wrong year, folks. Doesn't mean we can't get lucky, but it's more likely that they're going to have to draft a guy that is either a developmental project, or one that is polished now but probably doesn't have elite potential.
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Old 01-06-2014   #46
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
So really it boils down to a valuation of risk vs. reward and philosophy. IMNSHO, if you see a guy like Elway, Manning, Marino, etc., you grab him in the first round. If you're looking at guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or probably any one of this year's crop, you take a flier a bit later and try to develop them. It sucks, but it beats spending four years trying to figure out if David Carr really is the problem, or if it's coaching, scheme, O-Line, etc. To me, that purgatory is worse than drafting the next Jamarcus Russell. At least then you'd know to cut bait sooner. But that goes back to the money. If you spent even just $20M on a first round QB, you're not letting him go before year three at the earliest, more likely year four or five.
What do you think about Matt Stafford?

I think a guy like Stafford should have been a late top 10 pick, definitely not #1 overall.

But in 2009? Even with the benefit of hindsight, I can't find anyone I clearly wanted more.
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Old 05-31-2014   #47
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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It's between the ears.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-josh-freeman/
Quote:
Josh Freeman was released on Friday after just six weeks with the Giants, and his biggest problem in New York this offseason appears to be the same as his biggest problem in Minnesota last season: He struggles to learn the offense.

Shortly before Freeman was released, Jordan Raanan of NJ.com reported that Freeman had been pulled from a practice session in place of fellow backup quarterback Curtis Painter after Freeman lined up the offense incorrectly...
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Old 06-01-2014   #48
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Sorry if it's already been mentioned as a reason for lack if success but sometimes you have teams with so much turnover with the offensive coaches that I think it really screws with a players development. But my opinion is the biggest reasons for QBs not panning out is not being able to master an offense and read a defense.
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Old 06-01-2014   #49
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Sorry if it's already been mentioned as a reason for lack if success but sometimes you have teams with so much turnover with the offensive coaches that I think it really screws with a players development. But my opinion is the biggest reasons for QBs not panning out is not being able to master an offense and read a defense.
I agree with that, but don't think it's the root cause. I think your first point is more right than not. Lots of turnover. This is a what have you done for me lately league. You got to win now.

Coaches don't get four years anymore. QBs don't get to develop. 15 to 20 prospects a year, on average 5 openings a year? Something like that.
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Old 06-02-2014   #50
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Which other weaknesses have you seen in great college QBs that failed in the NBA?
Like Charlie Ward?

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