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Old 01-05-2014   #21
Dutchrudder 
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Some guys just can't handle their hookers and blow.
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Old 01-05-2014   #22
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
Wasn't that the same line that was said last year? If, if, if, if ....



We'll just have to agree to disagree, but then you would be wrong.
Sure, we said that last year. We also didn`t have a RT worth a damn, a declining Wade Smith and two young Gs. NExt season we have two more RT that might end up playing G - and I am pretty sure the team knows, it has to improve it`s line. I fully expect a veteran FA signing and a 2nd or 3d round draft pick. What I am saying is, our line will be improved and look a lot better than it did last season.
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Old 01-05-2014   #23
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

College is raw. Pro is defined with COACHING
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Old 01-05-2014   #24
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Because he won't be given the chance to be successful before he ends up ruined. I don't think any rookie QB drafted would be successful here. We have trench issues upfront. There's never been a more truer axiom that says "it all starts upfront".' It astounds me sometimes how many here under appreciate the importance of it.

All I see, is another David Carr regurgitation, no matter who is drafted. I'm sorry to be so negative about it, but the way I see it, because of the fanbase's emotional need to be entertained, the cart will be put before the horse . . . again.

This last season took away any lasting desire to drink Kool-Aid folks. If you think I was a cynic before . . . stick around.
Yep because Carr was the most dedicated worker and had the greatest offensive coaching a QB could hope for. It was all the O-line's fault that he failed.
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Old 01-05-2014   #25
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Yep because Carr was the most dedicated worker and had the greatest offensive coaching a QB could hope for. It was all the O-line's fault that he failed.
To return to the thread topic title, if you look at the history of QBs drafted high in the first round, most of them don't end up being worth the money it took to sign them.

I know some of you are all gaga about Terry Bridgewater. And yes, I know every situation is different. But I just see him ending up in the bust category.
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Old 01-05-2014   #26
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

You have to be pretty special to overcome a bad team, especially early in the career. Guys that are a notch or two (or more) below special have to be put in the right situation. And they can develop. No one thought Brady was anything special when he was drafted because frankly, he wasn't. His first couple years were spent as a game manager. He had the luxury of playing for a damn good team with good coaching. Anyone really, honestly believe Brady would have become THE Tom Brady if he had been drafted by the Browns? Now guys like Elway are going to shine no matter where, but even then, his team was never quite good enough until they changed the entire system under Shanahan. He got better as he got older, too. Then there are guys like Carr who never put in the work, but were blessed with special physical talent. Michael Vick is another example of that. He admitted on TV to Jim Mora that he never studied film that Mora sent home with him.

So the answer is all over the map, but it starts with an honest evaluation of what you have. Guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, etc. aren't special. If they're drafted into the right situation, they might do well, and they may eventually develop into a great QB in that situation.

The question is, do you think any QB coming out this year is going to be drafted into the right situation in Houston, and are they special? Whatever your answer, if you're being honest, you can understand the opposite answer.
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Old 01-05-2014   #27
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
Sounds like someone who is still chapped that Vince Young didn't make it. You have to be able to .. primarily .. take snaps from under center in the NFL. Anything else is just gimmickry that is eventually figured out and exposed by most defensive coordinators.

Bottom line .. these superstar college QBs that end up being busts, never learned how to "read" an NFL defense, either because they were too stupid, or didn't want to put in the effort.

Do I have any confidence that any of the current college crop will turn out to be a successful NFL QB?

None whatsoever.
Sounds like someone who doesn't know WTF he is talking about.

I NEEEEEEVER wanted Vince Young on the Texans. Stupid athletes never make good QB, and Vince Young is the poster child of stupid. The man posed a question and I gave him my opinion.
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Old 01-05-2014   #28
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
You have to be pretty special to overcome a bad team, especially early in the career. Guys that are a notch or two (or more) below special have to be put in the right situation. And they can develop. No one thought Brady was anything special when he was drafted because frankly, he wasn't. His first couple years were spent as a game manager. He had the luxury of playing for a damn good team with good coaching. Anyone really, honestly believe Brady would have become THE Tom Brady if he had been drafted by the Browns? Now guys like Elway are going to shine no matter where, but even then, his team was never quite good enough until they changed the entire system under Shanahan. He got better as he got older, too. Then there are guys like Carr who never put in the work, but were blessed with special physical talent. Michael Vick is another example of that. He admitted on TV to Jim Mora that he never studied film that Mora sent home with him.

So the answer is all over the map, but it starts with an honest evaluation of what you have. Guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, etc. aren't special. If they're drafted into the right situation, they might do well, and they may eventually develop into a great QB in that situation.

The question is, do you think any QB coming out this year is going to be drafted into the right situation in Houston, and are they special? Whatever your answer, if you're being honest, you can understand the opposite answer.
Good post, MSR. Unless you're truly special ala Peyton Manning, you've got to be put in the right situation. Going beyond that, the coach has to know how to develop u...which requires a good HC.

Most these guys haven't had to use more than their instincts and athleticism playing qb b/c they're usually 1 of the 5 best athletes on the field every week.

The field levels out once u get up to the NFL. You no longer have the elite athleticism advantage....or in the case of Lienart, playing with that elite talent. The game up there is played much more between the ears. And b/c those guys haven't had to do that much.....thats why they fail imo.
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Old 01-05-2014   #29
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Some guys just can't handle their hookers and blow.
Knew guys that couldn't handle that at big colleges either.

Lienart failed because he was lazy. Had all the tools and the brains, put never really put his heart into it.

As far as other USC guys go, not sure why Sanchez fell off, besides the same thing. Physical and mental tools that you look for, played in a pro-style offense in college. Could have used an extra year in college. Then again, maybe Rex can't develop QBs. Should at least be a good backup

VY was obviously too emotionally fragile to make it.
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Old 01-06-2014   #30
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

I copied this off some cat Cannonball on Clutchfans.

Link = http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=249124

Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years.

Draw from it what you will, but here are some of my observations. I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones. I italicized a few other notable ones. But again, you can look at this and draw your own conclusions. I didn't bold anybody from the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell, even if we all assume guys like Luck and Wilson will be good QBs.

First, while there are a lot of misses, the hit % in the 1st round is still better than drafting anywhere else. If you put Luck and Griffin in the mix, I put the hit % at around 38% (40% if you want to include Tannehill too). In the 2nd round it's 17% and 16% in the 3rd if you include Wilson and Foles (and Schaub, which I'm sure some of you may not). The only player after the 3rd round to get excited about is Tom Brady.

Second, the hit % for the first QB taken is higher at 53% (again, may vary based on who you include as a "hit")

Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.

Round 1
2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

Round 2
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
2010: Jimmy Clausen
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
2005: (none)
2004: (none)
2003: (none)
2002: (none)
2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: (none)
1999: Shaun King

Round 3
2013: Mike Glennon
2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
2011: Ryan Mallett
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: (none)
2008: Kevin O'Connell
2007: Trent Edwards
2006: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle
2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene
2004: Matt Schaub
2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms
2002: Josh McCown
2001: (none)
2000: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman
1999: Brock Huard

Round 4
2013: Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones
2012: Kirk Cousins
2011: (none)
2010: Mike Kafka
2009: Stephen McGee
2008: (none)
2007: Isaiah Stanback
2006: Brad Smith
2005: Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors
2004: Luke McCown
2003: Seneca Wallace
2002: David Garrard, Patrick Davey
2001: Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer
2000: (none)
1999: Joe Germaine, Aaron Brooks

Round 5
2013: (none)
2012: (none)
2011: Ricky Stanzi, TJ Yates, Nathan Enderley
2010: John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton
2009: Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis
2008: John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson, Erik Ainge
2007: Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith
2006: Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs
2005: Dan Orlovsky, Adrian McPherson
2004: Craig Krenzel
2003: Brian St. Pierre
2002: Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner, Brandon Doman, Craig Nall
2001: Mike McMahon, AJ Feely
2000: Tee Martin
1999: Kevin Daft

Round 6
2013: (none)
2012: Ryan Lindley
2011: Tyrod Taylor
2010: Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Joe Webb, Tony Pike
2009: Tom Brandstarter, Mike Teel, Keith Null, Curtis Painter
2008: Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson
2007: Jordan Palmer
2006: Reggie McNeal, Bruce Gradkowski
2005: Derek Anderson
2004: Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker
2003: Drew Henson, Brooks Bollinger, Kliff Kingsbury
2002: JT O'Sullivan, Steve Bellisari,
2001: Josh Booty, Josh Heupel
2000: Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Tom Brady, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider
1999: (none)

Round 7
2013: Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree
2012: BJ Coleman, Chandler Harnish
2011: Greg McElroy
2010: Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson
2009: (none)
2008: Matt Flynn, Alex Brink
2007: Tyler Thigpen
2006: DJ Shockley
2005: James Kilian, Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick
2004: John Navarre, Cody Pickett, Casey Bramlett, Matt Mauck, BJ Symons, Bradlee Van Pelt
2003: Gibran Handan, Ken Dorsey
2002: Seth Burford, Jeff Kelly, Wes Pate
2001: (none)
2000: Tim Rattay, Jarioius Jackson, Joe Hamilton, Billy Volek
1999: Michael Bishop, Chris Greisen, Scott Covington
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Old 01-06-2014   #31
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Quote:
Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
You have to be pretty special to overcome a bad team, especially early in the career. Guys that are a notch or two (or more) below special have to be put in the right situation. And they can develop. No one thought Brady was anything special when he was drafted because frankly, he wasn't. His first couple years were spent as a game manager. He had the luxury of playing for a damn good team with good coaching. Anyone really, honestly believe Brady would have become THE Tom Brady if he had been drafted by the Browns? Now guys like Elway are going to shine no matter where, but even then, his team was never quite good enough until they changed the entire system under Shanahan. He got better as he got older, too. Then there are guys like Carr who never put in the work, but were blessed with special physical talent. Michael Vick is another example of that. He admitted on TV to Jim Mora that he never studied film that Mora sent home with him.

So the answer is all over the map, but it starts with an honest evaluation of what you have. Guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, etc. aren't special. If they're drafted into the right situation, they might do well, and they may eventually develop into a great QB in that situation.

The question is, do you think any QB coming out this year is going to be drafted into the right situation in Houston, and are they special? Whatever your answer, if you're being honest, you can understand the opposite answer.
Repped, great post. Now the only question that remains is: what makes a guy special. Guys with great physical traits often fail because of mental issues, either lack of football intelligence or motivation to work on your craft. Guys without great physical traits often get exposed by the superior competition in the NFL.

Bridgewater has great mental traits, great accuracy, but only good not great physical traits. Will that be enough? I think so - at the very least I think it is a risk we have to take if he has a good combine. And like Kiwi has shown, you have the best statistical chance to get your franchise QB when drafting one in the first round and especially when drafting first overall...
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Old 01-06-2014   #32
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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College is raw. Pro is defined with COACHING
Is there ANY chance Munchak might come back as a line coach extraordinaire?
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Old 01-06-2014   #33
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.
I think it is safe to say we're going to draft a QB in the first round. That's not the same thing as saying we're going to draft a QB at 1-1, or that we're going to draft Teddy Bridgewater.
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Old 01-06-2014   #34
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Some guys just can't handle their hookers and blow.
Preach on Brother.
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Old 01-06-2014   #35
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Too many reasons to list.
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Old 01-06-2014   #36
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Most of the difference, encompassing a lot of problems for a new QB out of college, lies within the increased speed of the D. Rarely is anyone wide open, good luck trying to run much (and staying healthy), you have to make your reads a lot faster, you must throw into smaller windows, the coverage is less often fooled, etc. Oh, and JJ Watt will kick your @$$.
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Old 01-06-2014   #37
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

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Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
Repped, great post. Now the only question that remains is: what makes a guy special. Guys with great physical traits often fail because of mental issues, either lack of football intelligence or motivation to work on your craft. Guys without great physical traits often get exposed by the superior competition in the NFL.

Bridgewater has great mental traits, great accuracy, but only good not great physical traits. Will that be enough? I think so - at the very least I think it is a risk we have to take if he has a good combine. And like Kiwi has shown, you have the best statistical chance to get your franchise QB when drafting one in the first round and especially when drafting first overall...

That's easy..at least for me it is...If you look at the best qbs in the league almost all of them had 1 thing in common when they came out...They were/are tough mentally. All of them were/are ahead of the curve when it came to understanding that this game on this level is more about the mental than physical....whether that's smarts or mental toughness...usually both.


P. Manning- pretty much groomed from day 1 to be a film room junkie by Archie. I also think the prevailing thoughts on him not being able to win against Florida helped him even more mentally b/c it taught him how to deal with adversity...something he really hadn't had to deal with up to that point in his career.

Brady- All the road blocks he had to go thru at michigan..coming in #7 on the depth chart, spliting time with Drew Henson his senior year..that could've killed his NFL career right there. but i think him falling to the 6th round more than anything else did more to toughen him up mentally than anything he'd gone thru to that point.

Brees- motivated to prove the naysayers wrong about his lack of arm strength & guys his height coming out of college.....then after that the injury he suffered that threatened his career....The chargers draft day trade that brought Rivers to SD right as he was coming into his own in SD....perfect storm for him to build his mental fortitutude.

Rodgers...Like Brady, constantly being undervalued..dude had no scholarship offers coming out of high school..had to go to a JUCO to play....then falling as far as he did in the 1st round...him replacing a legend...

That's why i'm always weary of guys who depend on their athleticism too much playing qb...when i evaluate guys coming out of college poise is the 1 attribute that i weigh just as heavily as arm strength and all of the other physical attributes b/c it gives u the best window into where prospects are mentally playing the position imo.
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Old 01-06-2014   #38
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
I copied this off some cat Cannonball on Clutchfans.

Link = http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=249124

Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years.

Draw from it what you will, but here are some of my observations. I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones. I italicized a few other notable ones. But again, you can look at this and draw your own conclusions. I didn't bold anybody from the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell, even if we all assume guys like Luck and Wilson will be good QBs.

First, while there are a lot of misses, the hit % in the 1st round is still better than drafting anywhere else. If you put Luck and Griffin in the mix, I put the hit % at around 38% (40% if you want to include Tannehill too). In the 2nd round it's 17% and 16% in the 3rd if you include Wilson and Foles (and Schaub, which I'm sure some of you may not). The only player after the 3rd round to get excited about is Tom Brady.

Second, the hit % for the first QB taken is higher at 53% (again, may vary based on who you include as a "hit")

Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.

Round 1
2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

Round 2
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
2010: Jimmy Clausen
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
2005: (none)
2004: (none)
2003: (none)
2002: (none)
2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: (none)
1999: Shaun King

Round 3
2013: Mike Glennon
2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
2011: Ryan Mallett
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: (none)
2008: Kevin O'Connell
2007: Trent Edwards
2006: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle
2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene
2004: Matt Schaub
2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms
2002: Josh McCown
2001: (none)
2000: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman
1999: Brock Huard

Round 4
2013: Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones
2012: Kirk Cousins
2011: (none)
2010: Mike Kafka
2009: Stephen McGee
2008: (none)
2007: Isaiah Stanback
2006: Brad Smith
2005: Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors
2004: Luke McCown
2003: Seneca Wallace
2002: David Garrard, Patrick Davey
2001: Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer
2000: (none)
1999: Joe Germaine, Aaron Brooks

Round 5
2013: (none)
2012: (none)
2011: Ricky Stanzi, TJ Yates, Nathan Enderley
2010: John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton
2009: Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis
2008: John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson, Erik Ainge
2007: Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith
2006: Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs
2005: Dan Orlovsky, Adrian McPherson
2004: Craig Krenzel
2003: Brian St. Pierre
2002: Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner, Brandon Doman, Craig Nall
2001: Mike McMahon, AJ Feely
2000: Tee Martin
1999: Kevin Daft

Round 6
2013: (none)
2012: Ryan Lindley
2011: Tyrod Taylor
2010: Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Joe Webb, Tony Pike
2009: Tom Brandstarter, Mike Teel, Keith Null, Curtis Painter
2008: Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson
2007: Jordan Palmer
2006: Reggie McNeal, Bruce Gradkowski
2005: Derek Anderson
2004: Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker
2003: Drew Henson, Brooks Bollinger, Kliff Kingsbury
2002: JT O'Sullivan, Steve Bellisari,
2001: Josh Booty, Josh Heupel
2000: Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Tom Brady, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider
1999: (none)

Round 7
2013: Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree
2012: BJ Coleman, Chandler Harnish
2011: Greg McElroy
2010: Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson
2009: (none)
2008: Matt Flynn, Alex Brink
2007: Tyler Thigpen
2006: DJ Shockley
2005: James Kilian, Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick
2004: John Navarre, Cody Pickett, Casey Bramlett, Matt Mauck, BJ Symons, Bradlee Van Pelt
2003: Gibran Handan, Ken Dorsey
2002: Seth Burford, Jeff Kelly, Wes Pate
2001: (none)
2000: Tim Rattay, Jarioius Jackson, Joe Hamilton, Billy Volek
1999: Michael Bishop, Chris Greisen, Scott Covington
This is actually thread worthy on its own right.
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Old 01-06-2014   #39
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
I copied this off some cat Cannonball on Clutchfans.

Link = http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=249124

Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years.

Draw from it what you will, but here are some of my observations. I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones. I italicized a few other notable ones. But again, you can look at this and draw your own conclusions. I didn't bold anybody from the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell, even if we all assume guys like Luck and Wilson will be good QBs.

First, while there are a lot of misses, the hit % in the 1st round is still better than drafting anywhere else. If you put Luck and Griffin in the mix, I put the hit % at around 38% (40% if you want to include Tannehill too). In the 2nd round it's 17% and 16% in the 3rd if you include Wilson and Foles (and Schaub, which I'm sure some of you may not). The only player after the 3rd round to get excited about is Tom Brady.

Second, the hit % for the first QB taken is higher at 53% (again, may vary based on who you include as a "hit")

Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.

Round 1
2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

Round 2
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
2010: Jimmy Clausen
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
2005: (none)
2004: (none)
2003: (none)
2002: (none)
2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: (none)
1999: Shaun King
He had Andy Dalton bolded, and well, I wouldn't call him a "hit." I think he's more of a game manager type. The guy who won't lose you the games, but he's not really clutch either. Cincy is unpredictable, but I think 3 straight 1st round playoff losses might be enough for management to realize the QB isn't getting it done. Next year is his contract year, so maybe he can step it up a little, but I'd be real surprised if he gets a big contract extension from the team.
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Old 01-06-2014   #40
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Default Re: Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

Teams have won it all with players like Dalton at QB. We could have won one with Schaub at his best if things had broken right.

Cincinnati could win one if they stay healthy.
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