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Old 12-19-2013   #121
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
Geno Smith was OLads highest graded player last years draft. I would grade Bridgewater, Bortles & Manziel as better pro prospects. IF Texans do not get one of those three I believe they've wasted an opportunity to grab their franchise QB. Therefore if you feel good about all three I would consider trading down but not past the "3" spot
You left Carr out - how do you rate him? From watching Carr and Manziel, Carr throws a better deep ball.

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how many quarterbacks today would you consider franchise? since 2004 it's been very hit or miss with the first overall ... eli manning, alex smith, jamarcus russell, matt stafford, sam bradford, cam newton, and andrew luck. it gets ugly before then. brees and rodgers were late firsts, kaepernick should be mentioned, andy dalton, tony romo, ben went 11th, and so on. unless you're the colts, the elite level quarterback isnt landed on with the first pick, it's a very talented player that's built upon.
Brees was the 1st pick of the 2nd round.

I don't know, pick a definition - how about almost no argument (there's never none) he's good enough to win a SB without allegations of being carried? That's probably around 10.

I would think safe ones would be - Brady, Manning, Brees, Eli, Big Ben & Rogers. Some would argue I guess but I would include Flacco, Ryan, Stafford & Wilson. On the path Foles, Luck & Kaepernick.

That's 8 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 6th.
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Old 12-19-2013   #122
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Brees/Kaepernick/Wilson/Romo,Foles,Glennon,Brady/Geno Smith, Dalton,Schaub,Pryor were all of the starting QB's drafted outside the 1st rd. If you include Rodgers who was a very late 1st you have these tiers of QB's. None of these guys were drafted in 1st rd.

Tier 1 Franchise QB
Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Wilson, Got rings or in Wilson's case has an above avg chance to get a ring.

Tier 2
Romo/Schaub before injury/Foles Kaepernick, Kaepernick was just a hair away from winning a SB. If everything breaks right Romo could win a SB. 9He wont he's got the Moon syndrome.) Foles too early to tell

Tier 3 Dalton, doesn't have enough ability to be a SB winning QB. Glennon/Geno/Pryor too many flaws to ever win a SB.
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Old 12-19-2013   #123
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
Lots of really good points here. And while I agree and have been saying the same thing, There is precedent for having a dominating defense as a way to win the big one.




Playing devils advocate here. Despite McNairs remarks that this should be a quick turnaround, a two year plan could be the wiser way to go.

There is a lot of talk of next years draft having more talented QB's. Would it be unreasonable to think that bolstering the defense in this draft and riding this year out with a vet QB could be the better plan in the long run?

For instance say we bring in a new DC who sticks with a 3/4. How would this make our defense look?
1.) Javedon Clowney DE South Carolina
2.) Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh
3.) Shayne Skov LB Stanford

Let them grow together and go after our QB next year.
I'm still not sold on Clowney as a 3-4 OLB. I'm not saying he can't play it, but playing him there is not maximizing his talent and if you draft Donald then that's where he would be playing. With that said, there is no debate that he would be an upgrade over Mercilus.

Donald would thrive in our one-gap, penetrating front as a DE. He could easily replace Ninja.

I really like Skov, but not for the Texans. The injuries that he and Cushing have sustained have sapped their mobility. They are downhill LB's now that read gaps, flow to the ball, and make plays at the line of scrimmage. We need a guy that can run sideline to sideline and make plays in space. That's why I've been high on Mosley and Smallwood as a fit for the Texans.
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Old 12-19-2013   #124
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I would think safe ones would be - Brady, Manning, Brees, Eli, Big Ben & Rogers. Some would argue I guess but I would include Flacco, Ryan, Stafford & Wilson. On the path Foles, Luck & Kaepernick.
4 top picks, a 3rd overall, 3 later first round picks (11+), 2 second rounders, 2 thirds, and brady.

5 of the top 13 quarterbacks were taken in rounds 2 or later
8 of the top 13 quarterbacks were taken at pick 11 or later

many of these guys werent the first quarterback off the board. that's my point in a nutshell (not aimed at you IC), a quarterback is like every other player during the draft. the higher you pick the better your odds, but just because it's THE position doesnt mean you should reach for the highest rated quarterback instead of the best player for your team - that's how you get carr instead of peppers or jamarcus russell instead of megatron. all of these guys were put in very solid situations where the team around them was really good (except peyton who can carry an entire franchise on his back), they just needed a quarterback. the texans are close to that, but especially on offense we're at least an offensive lineman away from being able to give a young quarterback an ideal situation to mature in. the defense is full of holes in pass defense as well.

if the texans feel that "their guy" is in this draft, and that guy is a quarterback, i most definitely support grabbing him whenever necessary. if our front offense is saying "we need a quarterback" and forcing the pick, i disagree with it completely and would rather spend the pick on a more franchise type player.
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Old 12-20-2013   #125
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
You left Carr out - how do you rate him? From watching Carr and Manziel, Carr throws a better deep ball.
Not to derail your point which is a valid one but I don't consider Carr to be in the top 3 QB's in this class. more like Flacco territory late teens to late 20's. I'm just not in favor of a Classic drop back QB, times have changed & position has evolved. Also don't think he is a zone read guy or scrambler, just not the next level type of athlete we should be after this point. I might like Zach Mettenberger a little more but he can be such a hot dog, has a lot of Farve tendencies, to force the ball into coverage with his plus arm. These two are capable NFL prospects for QB position but notice, IMO ea. has significant flaws that make top three clearly superior franchise prospects.
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Old 12-20-2013   #126
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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I'm still not sold on Clowney as a 3-4 OLB. I'm not saying he can't play it, but playing him there is not maximizing his talent and if you draft Donald then that's where he would be playing. With that said, there is no debate that he would be an upgrade over Mercilus.

Donald would thrive in our one-gap, penetrating front as a DE. He could easily replace Ninja.

I really like Skov, but not for the Texans. The injuries that he and Cushing have sustained have sapped their mobility. They are downhill LB's now that read gaps, flow to the ball, and make plays at the line of scrimmage. We need a guy that can run sideline to sideline and make plays in space. That's why I've been high on Mosley and Smallwood as a fit for the Texans.
yeh ignore the names. fill in the ones you like. It was meant more as an exercise of thought than a literal plan. Its hard for me to wrap my head around players and where they fit until I know who the coach is going to be and what system we are going to be running.

Admittedly I am way behind this year on my (wanna be) scouting. And of all years to be behind on the draft I had to pick the one where we get (most likely) the top pick.. I have a lot of catching up to do.
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Old 12-20-2013   #127
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
Brees/Kaepernick/Wilson/Romo,Foles,Glennon,Brady/Geno Smith, Dalton,Schaub,Pryor were all of the starting QB's drafted outside the 1st rd. If you include Rodgers who was a very late 1st you have these tiers of QB's. None of these guys were drafted in 1st rd.

Tier 1 Franchise QB
Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Wilson, Got rings or in Wilson's case has an above avg chance to get a ring.

Tier 2
Romo/Schaub before injury/Foles Kaepernick, Kaepernick was just a hair away from winning a SB. If everything breaks right Romo could win a SB. 9He wont he's got the Moon syndrome.) Foles too early to tell

Tier 3 Dalton, doesn't have enough ability to be a SB winning QB. Glennon/Geno/Pryor too many flaws to ever win a SB.
1-1 picks currently playing Manning/A.Smith/Eli/Stafford/Newton/Bradford/Palmer

Top 15 1st rd picks
RG3,Ryan/Freeman/Cutler/Ponder/Rivers/Locker/Gabbert/Flacco

The 1-1 picks you would have to consider Peyton and Eli great picks franchise guys, even though Peyton should have more rings. IMHO Stafford/Newton the jury is still out on, Bradford/Palmer/Smith are good but not true fanchise QB's. (I feel Bridgewater will fall into this group.)

RG3, Jury is still out due to injury, if he can stay healthy he can be a SB winner, Ryan/Cutler/Rivers/Roethlisberger are very good and can carry their teams but probably not all of the way to a SB. Ponder/Freeman/Locker/Gabbertt=Busts.

The point of these posts are
1. You stand just as good a chance of getting Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Wilson in the 2nd or later rds. as you do of reaching and getting Palmer/Bradford and to a lesser extent Smith at 1-1.

Cutler/Flacco/Ryan/Roethlisberger and Rivers have 3 things all QB's that have the ability to become great have 1. Accuracy 2.Arm strength 3. poise The reason Locker/Freeman/Gabbert are going to be bust is they lack Poise/accuracy you can learn poise but accuracy is is god given. Ponder simply doesn't have the arm strength to be a starting QB in the NFL. The Jury is still out on Manuel

Bridgewater reminds me of Alex Smith at best and Ponder at worst. (Accurate smart guys with avg or worst arm strength.)

These 2 posts were made to point out that there's no reason to reach for a franchise QB. You are just as likely to find a franchise QB at 10 to the 3rd rd as you are at 1-1.

For this reason I pick Clowney or Barr 1-1 and if I really like QB I trade back into the 1st rd and pick Bortles/Mettenberger who have the arm strength, or Manziel who is like Wilson or Manuel or Dalton
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Old 12-20-2013   #128
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
That really only affects the top 10 picks and applies to all positions. You could equally say teams are now freed up to take positions they wouldn't have considered before in the top 10 because of the expense. For instance there wouldn't even be a conversation about Matthews under the old cba unless he was going to play LT immediately.
Yes but since QB's get the biggest contracts when it comes time to re-up you're going to see more unconventional QB picks because if the guy is a stud you'll have him 5 years under a very cap-friendly rookie contract (This is for all first round rookies. The top 10 draft picks get the transition tender of the top 10 salaries at their position. 11-32 picks get the average of the 3rd - 25th highest paid players at their position). This is why you will see more QB's go in the first rounds even if they are questionable, and is also demonstrable of just how bad last years QB crop was.
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Old 12-21-2013   #129
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
I would be OK with

Rd.1 Clowney/Barr
Rd.2 Bortles/Manziel/Mettenberger
Rd.3 Morgan Moses/James/Mewhort

That's value picks.
Yeah, I would like to get those QBs in round two, but only Mettenberger will be there. There are less question marks with Bridgewater than Clowney, or Barr and he plays the most important position in the game.
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Old 12-21-2013   #130
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Yeah, I would like to get those QBs in round two, but only Mettenberger will be there. There are less question marks with Bridgewater than Clowney, or Barr and he plays the most important position in the game.
Why would youthink that?

There's no questioning Clowney/Barr's talent.

I have major questions about Bridgewater. In fact I'm not even sure he's the best QB in this draft and I consider this to be a slightly above avg QB draft.

2015 is a different story.
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Old 12-21-2013   #131
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Not really directed to you.

How many QBs are in the league right now you would consider franchise guys who were drafted after the top half of the 2nd round?

Brady - no doubt, frankly falls into the blind damn luck category.
Russell Wilson - sure looks like it so far.
Nick Foles - again, sure looks good so far.

Now how many have been drafted in that time period?

There have been 25 drafted in the bottom half of the 2nd or the 3rd in that time frame. Figured going all the way down to the 6th would be goofy. That's 2 out of 25.

The drop off in waiting a round has to be considered.
Good point but the question I keep asking myself is do we have to have a franchise QB? Of course, we all go back & forth over evals but we like the real guys can only make guesses based on what we see and hear from others. We need so much + 1-1 has to be a player with least risk possible for me. Prior to 2013 I was hoping we could start taking some risk players 2014 draft but no way now.
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Old 12-21-2013   #132
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
Geno Smith was OLads highest graded player last years draft. I would grade Bridgewater, Bortles & Manziel as better pro prospects. IF Texans do not get one of those three I believe they've wasted an opportunity to grab their franchise QB. Therefore if you feel good about all three I would consider trading down but not past the "3" spot
First three picks will be those guys? I hope so as that would give Cleveland incentive to make a good offer.
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Old 12-21-2013   #133
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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I really like Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. For his position I would grade him on level playing field with Matthews. A premier CB = a premier LT. Still QB will trump them both, higher risk, higher reward. Nice try corrosion to stir the proverbial
And you were the guy who scolded me not too long ago on a mock of Verrett of choosing a "short" CB. I guess you changed your mind? Olomu did well in "Civil War" against Brandin Cooks & up my opinion of him. As it takes longer for corner to adjust to NFL than OTs, I have to disagree that he is level with Matthews.
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Old 12-21-2013   #134
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Ekpre-Olomu has higher upside than Matthews at his position, IMO. But Matthews certainly has a higher floor.
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Old 12-21-2013   #135
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Why would youthink that?

There's no questioning Clowney/Barr's talent.

I have major questions about Bridgewater. In fact I'm not even sure he's the best QB in this draft and I consider this to be a slightly above avg QB draft.

2015 is a different story.
Let me preface this by saying that I have not studied any of these players in depth, so I am sure you are more qualified in your opinions. I think Bridgewater has the measurables and production that justify a high pick. I like his toughness, quick release, arm strength and decision making ability. He comes from a pro style offense and he has produced without top flight talent around him. I also think you have to factor in the roster realities of the Texans. If the Texans rank Bortles, or Maizel as better prospects, go there.

Clowney has all of the physical attributes we would be looking for, but his production and motor have been called into question. I would have no problem with the Texans picking him, but I still think you win at a higher level with great QB play. Barr probably has less questions other than his relative inexperience on the defensive side. Barr seems more like a candidate to draft if you can trade down within the top 5.
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Old 12-21-2013   #136
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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And you were the guy who scolded me not too long ago on a mock of Verrett of choosing a "short" CB. I guess you changed your mind? Olomu did well in "Civil War" against Brandin Cooks & up my opinion of him. As it takes longer for corner to adjust to NFL than OTs, I have to disagree that he is level with Matthews.
Completely different Corners. Verrett plays small ball, jumps routes & takes risks, when called on to tackle he goes low much like Dunta Robinson. Pre plays big, he challenges opponents, sucks in QB's thinking his man is undercoverd then uses second gear recovery speed to knockdown/intercept pass or just plain knock you out, very physical, top CB since Revis lock & load it. 2nd on team in tackles says a lot for a CB.
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Old 12-22-2013   #137
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Completely different Corners. Verrett plays small ball, jumps routes & takes risks, when called on to tackle he goes low much like Dunta Robinson. Pre plays big, he challenges opponents, sucks in QB's thinking his man is undercoverd then uses second gear recovery speed to knockdown/intercept pass or just plain knock you out, very physical, top CB since Revis lock & load it. 2nd on team in tackles says a lot for a CB.
definitely agree on tackles. He likes to hit.
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Old 12-26-2013   #138
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Playing devils advocate here. Despite McNairs remarks that this should be a quick turnaround, a two year plan could be the wiser way to go.
We're playing in one of the weakest divisions in the league.
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Old 12-26-2013   #139
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Playing devils advocate here. Despite McNairs remarks that this should be a quick turnaround, a two year plan could be the wiser way to go.
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We're playing in one of the weakest divisions in the league.
Until the Texans can become competitive with the salary cap, the Texans will not be competitive on the football field. They could use 2014 to fix all all their salary cap discrepancies and be in great shape in 2015. This is doubtful as this front office has never shown this propensity or responsibility.
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Old 12-26-2013   #140
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Texian View Post
Until the Texans can become competitive with the salary cap, the Texans will not be competitive on the football field. They could use 2014 to fix all all their salary cap discrepancies and be in great shape in 2015. This is doubtful as this front office has never shown this propensity or responsibility.
Agree this could be a pivotal off season. Team needs to get so many things right with coach, draft and free agency including the cap. Not too sure any standouts will be available though.
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