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Old 12-23-2013   #41
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
Well, I don`t watch much college football, so I don`t know what Im talking about here - but Ive read some very high praise about Bridgewater. As high as "outside of Luck he is the best college QB prospect of the last 10 years."

The combine will tell a lot, but of course you don`t take him, if you are not convinced in his ability.

But when you like him you take him, even if you think Clowney or Matthews is the better player - simply because a QB is that much harder to get and more valuable. I am sure the Texans go in this draft wanting to get a QB and hoping, that there is one they feel good about.

And I am sure that there will be offers for the first pick - some team will love Bridgewater or Clowney and be ready to offer 2 firsts and a second for him at the least...
This philosopy is why the Texans are where they are today.

Derek Carr is the most talented QB physicaly in this draft. I Really..... hope Rick picks a used Carr.

Same philosophy?

Pick the best damn player for once and fix the trenches. My god some people never learn.
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Old 12-23-2013   #42
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
Dunno why people think this. They're built as a 3-4. if they hire o'brien, rick wil suggest dc candidates. He might even bring crennell or pluck mangini.
How's that stout LB core we have working out? Our front 7 is JJ Watt and that's it.
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Old 12-23-2013   #43
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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How's that stout LB core we have working out? Our front 7 is JJ Watt and that's it.
Which could both be said (to the extent they are even true now) in a 4-3.

You want Smith making the play calls too?

Hire the best coach available and let them select the O & D philosophy not the other way around.
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Old 12-23-2013   #44
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Which could both be said (to the extent they are even true now) in a 4-3.

You want Smith making the play calls too?

Hire the best coach available and let them select the O & D philosophy not the other way around.
Call me crazy but I'd rather have 3 LBs playing crappy than 4 LBs playing crappy, at least the DL would be able to contain something - which would be better than the nothing we do now.

Did Lovie make all the calls in Chicago or did Rivera/Babich/Marinelli make their fair share of the calls?

My scenario is that Lovie gets the job and goes to 4-3. That's not some far fetched notion. I think it makes Cushing's life that much easier.

We'd obviously need someone with a strong and innovated offense but that's another conversation.
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Old 12-23-2013   #45
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

Ok ... I'll take Kirk Cousins , Ryan Kerrigan , and Chris Baker for the 1st overall pick .
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Old 12-23-2013   #46
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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My scenario is that Lovie gets the job and goes to 4-3. That's not some far fetched notion. I think it makes Cushing's life that much easier.
I didn't say a switch to a 4-3 was far fetched. I said you should pick the coach not the system.

I don't care about how easy Cushing's life is, I care about depth for him which is a concern in either system.
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Old 12-23-2013   #47
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

The GM picks the HC.

The HC picks the coordinators.

If the GM picks all the other coaches it takes power away from the HC to control the scheme, so why should he be held accountable for the results? It really can't be this hard to figure out...
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Old 12-23-2013   #48
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
This philosopy is why the Texans are where they are today.

Derek Carr is the most talented QB physicaly in this draft. I Really..... hope Rick picks a used Carr.

Same philosophy?

Pick the best damn player for once and fix the trenches. My god some people never learn.
Apparently you didn't see him vs USC this past Saturday ? He was very disappointing.
And would you people quit naming Jake Mattews as a possible player for the Texans to draft with their top pick. Just for a moment forget his name and that he's from Houston and besides the truth he's probably not as talented as Michigan's Taylor Lewan and anyway neither is not nearly worthy of the #1 overall.
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Old 12-23-2013   #49
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I didn't say a switch to a 4-3 was far fetched. I said you should pick the coach not the system.

I don't care about how easy Cushing's life is, I care about depth for him which is a concern in either system.
Are you thinking that if Love is the guy he'd stay with our 3-4?

Easier to find 1 backup for the MLB than the 2-3 we currently need since none of them can stay healthy.
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Old 12-23-2013   #50
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by PapaL View Post
Are you thinking that if Love is the guy he'd stay with our 3-4?
I can't make this any plainer. Pick who you think is the best HC - let him pick the scheme. Don't pick the HC because of what scheme he will pick.

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Easier to find 1 backup for the MLB than the 2-3 we currently need since none of them can stay healthy.
Which is meaningless to distinguish the 3-4. It is always "the front 7." You need 7 guys plus backups either way. Go to a 4-3 and you need another DLmen. None of this should determine the system. Either way they have two starting pieces, JJ and Cushing, and 5 spots plus backups to fill in.
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Old 12-23-2013   #51
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
The Texans aren't touching Clowney.
This might have been true last year, but we don't know what the new Coach will do or if he'll get greater latitude from McNair and Smith with the draft.
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Old 12-23-2013   #52
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
That simply is not true in the salary cap era... You are saying, essentially, that a player with a contract which consumes 4% of a team's cap has the same value as an identical player which consumes 8% of a team's cap room... Of course that is not true. It is the reason why teams, during free agency, knowingly sign a lesser talent for less money- they view that decision to have better value. Before 2011, teams were trapped into a system that deemed that pick (regardless of the talent pool) worthy of a $50+ million financial commitment... Now, the system still determines the value of that pick, but the determined value is about 50% of what is was a few years ago... hence, it is much more valuable than it would have been prior to the new CBA.
I think you're missing the point. Value is the Market minus the actual price. Since the market is similar, but the actual price for picks now is controlled, it creates more value or some would say excess value. As the system matures, the money will tilt back toward the established players in FA receiving greater contracts, but we have to work through the overpriced contracts of the old system which have created salary cap issues first.
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Old 12-23-2013   #53
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
Myself I am not worried about it. ACL's get repaired and his season speaks for itself. I'm comfortable with what he's done this year as my basis for selecting him while at the same time I'd be stalking his doctors and making sure everything was on schedule. I know the Texans have a pretty sketchy history of handling injured players starting with 1-1 in the expansion draft all the way up to Ed Reed this season but sooner or later we're going to be on the right side of one of these things. They need to do everything possible to be certain he's coming along the way he should be. If he isn't then I'd start looking at another QB, most likely McCarron.

But if everything checks out with his rehab I'm fine with it. If I do the Matthews in the first round/Metternberger in the second round thing I'm planning on bringing in a veteran to mentor him anyway. He'll be someone I'm ok with starting early on if I have to (but I really don't want to have to).
Would you trade 1-1, 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1 for St Louis' 1-2 and 1-15?
Perhaps to be followed by trading 1-2 for Cleveland's 1-5, 1-25 and 4-5?

This would give us 3 first round picks, 1-5, 1-15, 1-25; one third round pick, 3-1; two fourth round picks, 4-1 and 4-5 and a seventh round pick, 7-1.

ps These trades would balance using the old trade pick point value scheme.
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Old 12-23-2013   #54
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
Apparently you didn't see him vs USC this past Saturday ? He was very disappointing.
And would you people quit naming Jake Mattews as a possible player for the Texans to draft with their top pick. Just for a moment forget his name and that he's from Houston and besides the truth he's probably not as talented as Michigan's Taylor Lewan and anyway neither is not nearly worthy of the #1 overall.
I'm not on board with picking Matthews 1-1.

I want that on the record.
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Old 12-23-2013   #55
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Would you trade 1-1, 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1 for St Louis' 1-2 and 1-15?
Perhaps to be followed by trading 1-2 for Cleveland's 1-5, 1-25 and 4-5?

This would give us 3 first round picks, 1-5, 1-15, 1-25; one third round pick, 3-1; two fourth round picks, 4-1 and 4-5 and a seventh round pick, 7-1.

ps These trades would balance using the old trade pick point value scheme.
I could definitely get on board with this kind of horse trading. Wont happen but the odds of adding 3 impact players and a LB like Skov, Carrethers and Belue in the 4th for example. Would help fill alot of holes on this team.
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Old 12-23-2013   #56
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Would you trade 1-1, 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1 for St Louis' 1-2 and 1-15?
Perhaps to be followed by trading 1-2 for Cleveland's 1-5, 1-25 and 4-5?

This would give us 3 first round picks, 1-5, 1-15, 1-25; one third round pick, 3-1; two fourth round picks, 4-1 and 4-5 and a seventh round pick, 7-1.

ps These trades would balance using the old trade pick point value scheme.
Why would St. Louis want to make that trade?
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Brain Cushing
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Old 12-24-2013   #57
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Why would St. Louis want to make that trade?
why indeed?

seems everybody wants to cheat the system in fantasy trade land when they should be focused on nailing picks as they fall. tempting as it is draft picks are now worth weight in gold, especially high ones because you can address an expensive, dire position of need on the cheap. those who want to pass on a Bridgewater, Bortles or Manziel in favor of a second round QB like Derek Carr or AJ McCarron are truely drinking the instead of the pure stuff windows are now 3-4 years before these great players develop, achieve then are due their first really big contract. Just for refresher JJ Watt will be heading into year four 2014 so you better look out & grab a franchise QB cheap so you can pay one then the other in different time frames to balance your cap
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Old 12-26-2013   #58
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Clowney is definitely a freak.
The question is whether a team is willing to take the risk concerning his character.
Does playing along side JJ Watt and together with Cushing provide the motivation for him to fulfill his potential?

Or maybe there's a team out there willing to take that risk and trade the farm for him?
I'd like to trade back - if the value is there. But studying the potential draft board, I don't see many possibilities.

I'd like to get two firsts out of a trade and the only teams which allows this are the Rams and the Browns. With the #2 pick it's unlikely the Rams will trade unless they absolutely want one particular player and are afraid that player will go at #1, either to the Texans or to a team the Texans trade with. The Browns are the only real possibility for a trade that allows us to get value.

The Browns could be drafting anywhere from about #4 to #9, depending on if they win or lose to the Steelers.

The Browns also have Pittsburg's third round pick in this coming draft.

Some reports say that Cleveland is targeting a QB in the first and the one they like is Carr. If this is accurate, and they are picking forth, it is unlikely they will be willing to trade. But if they lose to Pittsburg and slip down the board, and if they are dead set on a particular QB or some other player, they will likely be looking to trade up.

Another possibility is to trade for picks in the 2015 draft. Under this scenario, the value of the picks slip by one round; ie, a 2015 first is valued as a 2014 second.

So unless we trade for future picks, and getting a new HC makes this less likely, I don't see the value there this year unless the Browns are somehow involved.

PS: the only team with an extra second round pick, so far, is San Francisco and this is KC's pick. They will be picking so low and KC's pick will be so low, there really is no value in any trade scenario.

Last edited by Number19; 12-26-2013 at 10:30 PM.
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Old 12-27-2013   #59
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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I'd like to trade back - if the value is there. But studying the potential draft board, I don't see many possibilities.

I'd like to get two firsts out of a trade and the only teams which allows this are the Rams and the Browns. With the #2 pick it's unlikely the Rams will trade unless they absolutely want one particular player and are afraid that player will go at #1, either to the Texans or to a team the Texans trade with. The Browns are the only real possibility for a trade that allows us to get value.

The Browns could be drafting anywhere from about #4 to #9, depending on if they win or lose to the Steelers.

The Browns also have Pittsburg's third round pick in this coming draft.

Some reports say that Cleveland is targeting a QB in the first and the one they like is Carr. If this is accurate, and they are picking forth, it is unlikely they will be willing to trade. But if they lose to Pittsburg and slip down the board, and if they are dead set on a particular QB or some other player, they will likely be looking to trade up.

Another possibility is to trade for picks in the 2015 draft. Under this scenario, the value of the picks slip by one round; ie, a 2015 first is valued as a 2014 second.

So unless we trade for future picks, and getting a new HC makes this less likely, I don't see the value there this year unless the Browns are somehow involved.

PS: the only team with an extra second round pick, so far, is San Francisco and this is KC's pick. They will be picking so low and KC's pick will be so low, there really is no value in any trade scenario.
If Atlanta gets it's heart set on Clowney and St. Louis is afraid Clowney would be gone at 1-2, then they might consider moving up to the first spot. Trading down is contingent on teams falling in love with a player we are willing to pass on or take. We have to be willing to TAKE the player to spur interest in adding value for the trade.

My trade ideas are not that farfetched unless everyone is satisfied with the options they will have at their current draft positions. If we could trade down and still pick up a Matthews or Barr and then perhaps Manzeil and still have another 1 for perhaps the premier safety in the draft, why wouldn't we?

I'm not averse to a little risk and having Keenum as a fallback if there is a run on QBs. Also, some of those QB hungry teams will go after the Backups or Cutler. making a higher rated QB available later.

I imagine Keenum with Matthews and the return of Quissenbury might actually surprise people, particularly with a new OC. Newton might even be better at guard than at Tackle.
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Old 12-27-2013   #60
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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I'd like to trade back - if the value is there. But studying the potential draft board, I don't see many possibilities.

I'd like to get two firsts out of a trade and the only teams which allows this are the Rams and the Browns. With the #2 pick it's unlikely the Rams will trade unless they absolutely want one particular player and are afraid that player will go at #1, either to the Texans or to a team the Texans trade with. The Browns are the only real possibility for a trade that allows us to get value.

The Browns could be drafting anywhere from about #4 to #9, depending on if they win or lose to the Steelers.

The Browns also have Pittsburg's third round pick in this coming draft.

Some reports say that Cleveland is targeting a QB in the first and the one they like is Carr. If this is accurate, and they are picking forth, it is unlikely they will be willing to trade. But if they lose to Pittsburg and slip down the board, and if they are dead set on a particular QB or some other player, they will likely be looking to trade up.

Another possibility is to trade for picks in the 2015 draft. Under this scenario, the value of the picks slip by one round; ie, a 2015 first is valued as a 2014 second.

So unless we trade for future picks, and getting a new HC makes this less likely, I don't see the value there this year unless the Browns are somehow involved.

PS: the only team with an extra second round pick, so far, is San Francisco and this is KC's pick. They will be picking so low and KC's pick will be so low, there really is no value in any trade scenario.
This is the time to OPENLY discuss the Texans interest in Carr as well as Bridgewater and Clowney. Make sure the team that desired that player knows they might not make it past Houston. The only way to assure the availability of the player is to trade picks. This is trade craft.

I believe this is why the Texans are making it clear that Bridgewater isn't necessarily their choice.
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